Welcome back, ladies and gentlemen!
The UFC is rocking around the world on a weekly basis now and while it is tedious researching so many new fighters, we just keep on winning.
It’s definitely been worth it to me. I hope the same for you!
Last week was a clean sweep!
Antonina Shevchenko, the sister of this week’s headliner Valentina, kicked off our night with a solid victory at (-147).
I was expecting her to win a technical striking decision but she surprised many of us with a quick choke.
She turned the corner on a lazy Lucie Pudilova takedown attempt and sunk in the rear-naked choke with just one hook to finish the Czech in the second round.
Antonina did eat 3 consecutive lateral elbows early in the fight but other than her taking a look up at the lights for a split second, she wasn’t phased.
Jim Miller and Clay Guida got down to business with the quickness. Clay slipped Jim early with a right hand but the Jersey-native immediately bit down on his mouthpiece and returned fire with a straight left.
This rocked “The Carpenter” and Jim pounced on an arm-in guillotine choke and Guida was out cold within a few seconds.
This one was good for a (+142) payout.
Colby Covington (-225) secured himself a future title fight with champion Kamaru Usman by absolutely dominating Robbie Lawler.
The Oregon-native put such a heavy pace on Lawler that the nearly 20-year veteran just couldn’t keep.
All of our fight picks were pretty clean victories and we also hit a 3-way parlay on them all for a (+310) payout.
Healthy week for sure, and here are our stats for the past 10 events.
- 16-3 on fights with betting odds ranging from (-135) to (+135)
- 18-4 on favorites (-140) or lower
- 4-5 on underdogs (+140) or higher
- 4-1 on parlays
This week down in Uruguay, Valentina Shevchenko headlines the card in a title defense against a woman who has beaten her before, Liz Carmouche.
Liz is a tough out for anyone in the division and will likely have takedown and strength advantage going into this one.
Ilir Latifi and Volkan Oezdemir are finally going to scrap, at least it seems that way as of now.
This is the third time I believe that they have tried to make this exciting and fairly unpredictable matchup.
This one is tough to call with both men being dangerous early finishers.
This contest may not be the most exciting clash of the night, though, as welterweight warriors Vicente Luque and Mike Perry will trade hands in hopes to move up their divisional rankings.
I’m psyched for this fight as well but it’s a dangerous bet as Luque is technically the superior guy out there but Perry’s striking is volatile, to say the least, and he seems to improve after each competition.
BetOnline has the odds this week.
Let’s make some picks!
Rodolfo Vieira vs Oskar Piechota
The Brazilian Rodolfo Vieira is 4-time world champion Jiu-Jitsu player.
Oskar Piechota has very weak takedown defense. He was taken down by Gerald Meerschart 6 times in 8 attempts in his last fight. He lost by submission.
Things are going well so far for the Pole.
Oskar is a tall long striker who has a first-round KO victory under his belt inside the Octagon.
That’s something but the man he KO’ed is 0-2 in the UFC w 2 losses coming by way of knockout.
Vieira specializes in guard passing, a lost art some would say in a leglock rich sport Jiu-Jitsu environment. Many of the leg lock attempts can get you into trouble in MMA as you must take two hands away from your face to finish.
Therefore, a strong sport BJJ background doesn’t always translate well to mixed martial arts. I don’t think that will be the case in this matchup, though.
I see the ol’ smash, pass, submit for the Brazilian.
He has lost to two men in all of his tournament BJJ matches in the past 8 years. That’s over 70 matches.
If you can find his odds for a submission win, jump all over that.
Let’s take him to win outright for some very good value, really, at (-211).
Volkan Oezdemir vs Ilir Latifi
Sweden vs Switzerland!
Both guys are bald.
Both guys have 15 wins.
Each man packs power in his hands.
They both like to bang.
Heck, the UFC wants us to see this one. They have been trying to make this fight all literally year.
This is a tough call. Let’s look a bit closer at some of their recent fights/stats.
Latifi’s most recent fight was in December of 2018 when he lost a 3 round decision to Corey Anderson.
Anderson, ranked in the top 5, was unable to take down the Swede and out-landed Ilir 45-34 in total strikes.
That’s not much output at all, especially when the last fight we saw from the UFC was Colby Covington setting a record for strikes landed in a fight with over 200!
This is a recurring theme for Latifi who likes to bide his time and wait for the perfect shot.
Volkan’s defense isn’t the very best so Ilir may be given the opportunity.
Oezdemir won his first 3 fights under the UFC banner before challenging Daniel Cormier for the belt. He lost convincingly there and has since dropped two more to contenders Anthony Smith and Dominic Reyes.
This fight is very close with two fighters who can end it quickly.
- On one hand, I like Volkan because he strikes with significantly more output than Latifi.
- On the other side, Latifi is a better wrestler and submission artist. If he mixes in some takedown attempts, it could open up some looping shots over the top.
Oezdemir does like to stand tall.
Volkan likes to clinch and dirty box. That is probably his #1 game but he is likely going to run into some strong underhooks from the Swede national champion wrestler and even if there is no takedown, Oezdemir is open for a looping shot off the break of the clinch.
By no means am I anywhere close to being positive on this fight, but it’s been a long time coming and is sure to be exciting!
I’ll take the plus money here.
Vicente Luque vs Mike Perry
Here we go again…
Mixed feelings from me.
I am a massive fight fan and along with the previous matchup we discussed, this fight should be lit (as the kids say) as well.
There’s also the “writer” me who is on a heck of a 2-month streak picking winners.
My head says Luque, all day.
He has won 9 out of his last 10 fights in the Octagon with the only loss coming by way of decision to the highly impressive Leon Edwards.
Each one of those victories was by finish!
3 subs and 6 KO/TKO’s!
Mike Perry is the GOAT, though.
I love his enthusiasm and when he clinches down hard with his jaw, the man can generate some incredible force!
We have seen Mike improve each fight. You don’t normally get that from a brawler.
I look at his loss to Santiago Ponzzhinibio and I think the Luque fight might go the same way. He can handle power strikers who may be more technical but when they become 2 or 3 dimensional and threaten the takedown, the game changes.
If the betting odds were a bit more spaced out, I think you could argue for Perry.
I’m not saying he can’t win but Luque is technically more proficient, has more tools, and comparable power as well.
He loves to knee the body. That could get him in trouble if Perry decides to try and beat it with a bomb over the top. Luque has great timing, though.
Valentina Shevchenko vs Liz Carmouche
Okay, before you click to another window, hear me out.
Yes, (-1400) is too pricey. I would have to guarantee her at 98% for that bet. I just can’t do that.
Little known fact: Liz beat Valentina before.
You mean you weren’t at C3 Fights in Concho, Oklahoma in 2010?
In retrospect, it was the place to be.
Stylistically and size-wise, Carmouche is the prototype to defeat Shevchenko.
She has a similar length, more strength, and very good submission defense.
Liz also fights within herself and is very difficult to finish.
Ronda Rousey is the only woman to submit her in the past 8 years and if you remember correctly, Liz was close to choking out the former Miss World UFC.
Valentina, though, is about a dominant of a striker as there is in the entire organization.
Her last fight against a similar opponent to Liz was against Sarah Kaufman in late 2015 and she won a split decision there.
She isn’t invincible.
If this was a 3-round fight, I would give Liz a much better shot to win, though. All that extra muscle is going to slow her down late.
Valentina will probably crack her with a head kick but the (-1400) just isn’t worth it.
Even though we are only (4-5) on underdog bets this year and I would love to stay above .500, I’m going to give this one a go.
Let’s go to Uruguay!
There are several exciting matchups this Saturday night. Some a little too exciting for my betting blood but I’m going to pick them regardless.
Vicente Luque over Mike Perry is about an 80/20, I think.
I would give the Brazilian 4 wins if these two fought 5 times.
At just 2 to 1 odds, I believe you have to give him some dough.
Contrarily, Volkan Oezdemir is 1.5 to 1 to beat up the shorter counter striker Ilir Latifi. I would only give him maybe 6 wins if these two fought 10 times, so the value in on the Swede.
Rodolfo Vieira should be a much larger favorite in his matchup with Oskar Piechota. Currently, at just more than 2 to 1, we have to remember that he has the ability to beat ANY MAN in the 185-pound division. His striking may be a bit green but just the threat of a takedown from one of the greatest grapplers ever is enough to take your striking down from an 8 to a 5 really quick.
For example, watch the Conor McGregor vs Khabib Nurmagomedov fight again.
Khabib is not a better boxer, striker, etc. It was the threat of the takedown that allowed him to outstrike the Irish sensation.
In the main event, Valentina will probably win. I can’t cap that probability at nearly 100%, though.
Liz is built to beat her and has defeated the woman before.
That’s enough for me to throw 11.77 down to make 100.00.
Enjoy the fight, team!