Sleeper Pick – Betting on a Hillary Clinton Impeachment Conspiracy

Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.”

The above aphorism is called Hanlon’s Razor, and while I tend to agree with the theory in most situations, what’s going on in Washington DC these days is setting off alarm bells in my head. While all of the “woke” neoliberal media pundits and online philosophers celebrate Nancy Pelosi and the way she’s “taking on Trump,” I feel like I’m taking crazy pills.

The Democratic Party continues to charge full speed ahead towards impeachment, pretending like this whole ordeal ends with the removal of Donald Trump from office. Am I missing something here?

My theory is that there’s something more sinister at play here. There’s no way the best political minds in Washington DC are plowing ahead like this without some ulterior motive – I refuse to believe they’re this short-sighted and dumb.

I think they’re doing this for a reason. The establishment wing of the Democratic Party is making a major play – which I believe heyis meant to open up a lane for another presidential candidate in 2020.

That’s right; this whole stubborn impeachment trial is a conspiracy meant to give Hillary Clinton another shot at the White House. I realize this may seem ridiculous on the surface, but just hear me out…

Impeachment Recap

The impeachment inquiry ended without changing anybody’s mind – polling shows that Republican support today is consistent with the President’s approval ratings before the hearings. Sure, Democratic voters came away from the investigation indignant and bloodthirsty as ever, but that was always going to be the case. The specific evidence made no difference; that portion of the electorate was going to have the same reaction regardless.

Now, every Democrat in Congress is excitedly expressing their support for impeachment, and I’m left scratching my head as to why . Speaker Pelosi announced two articles of impeachment being brought against the President, with all signs pointing to the DNC-led House of Representatives passing them both between now and Christmas.

My question is:
What is Congresswoman Pelosi hoping to accomplish with all of this? I’m fairly certain a life-long politician like the House Speaker is aware that two-thirds majority is required to remove a sitting president – that’s 67 votes in the Republican-controlled Senate.

There are only 44 Democratic Senators – with another three potential swing votes. Where in the hell are they expecting to get those other 20 – 23 votes from?

According to FiveThirtyEight’s impeachment polls , as of December 13, 2019, 84.7% of Democrats support impeachment, while only 42.8% of independents and 9.7% of Republicans feel the same way.

Throughout this entire process thus far, every vote has been split along party lines – giving exactly zero indication that any GOP members of Congress will be supporting the removal of Donald Trump from office.

Do you know what the President’s approval rating was among Republican voters in a November Gallup poll ? 90%!

Think about everything you know about modern-day politicians; do you think nearly two dozen Republican Senators are going to risk their seats, just because Democrats and MSNBC are badgering them to “do what’s right?” There’s a zero-percent chance the Senate votes to remove Trump.

An Ill-Advised Senate Impeachment Trial

What’s worse, it’s not like there are no consequences for the Democrats for bringing forth articles of impeachment and getting stonewalled by the GOP in the Senate. This plan has the potential to be massively destructive for the DNC – at least for their current crop of presidential candidates.

Let’s say the DNC isn’t bluffing, and in late December, they go ahead and pass the two articles of impeachment. Once that happens, the ball is in Mitch McConnell’s court. While he could immediately bring forth a vote and shoot down the articles right away, all indications coming from the Republicans is that that’s not going to happen.

Instead, the Senate opts for a proper trial. Remember, the House is voting on impeachment around Christmas time, so the trial probably won’t start until mid-January – depending on how slowly the GOP drags their feet.

So, now the trial starts in mid-to-late January, requiring all 100 Senators to be present on Capitol Hill. That takes Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and Cory Booker off the campaign trail, with the Iowa caucuses coming up on February 3. Cory Booker is polling so low that he doesn’t matter, so the only real victims on the Democratic side are the two most popular progressive candidates.

Coincidence? I doubt it.

The Biden Experience

However, Senators Sanders and Warren aren’t the only potential casualties of this predetermined failure of a trial. Remember, the “abuse of power” article of impeachment deals with President Trump’s phone call to the Ukrainian President, during which he allegedly pushed for an investigation into Joe Biden and his son Hunter’s relationship with Burisma Holdings, to be opened and announced publicly.

That makes Joe, his son, and the whistleblower who sparked the whole impeachment investigation fair game to call as witnesses. That’s a third top-tier Democratic candidate taken off the road at the worst possible time – only this trial can go way worse for Biden than the three Senators.

Already this week, Republican Congressman Gaetz was raising questions about Hunter Biden’s past – more specifically, his problems with drugs. If they’re able to get this guy under oath, a lot of people are going to come away from the proceedings pretty skeptical as to why a Ukrainian energy company would want him on their board in the first place.

Then there’s the former Vice President, who’s had multiple embarrassing moments caught on video and shared online in the last few weeks. The worst of which, featured an Iowa man at a town hall, asking Biden about this very topic. The current Democratic frontrunner reacted emotionally , calling the man a “liar,” before accidentally saying he was “fat” and “sedentary” as well. The icing on the cake is when Joe challenged the man to a pushup contest.

Now, imagine that same Joe Biden – the guy who told a crowd that during his lifeguarding days, kids used to play with his leg hair (shout out to “Corn Pop”); the guy who routinely forgets what states he’s campaigning in – under oath and fielding pointed questions about his drug-addict son from antagonistic Republican Senators.

Is there any chance in the world that those circumstances don’t end in a disgraceful meltdown that tanks his presidential campaign? If the online sportsbooks were offering betting odds on the trial itself becoming a bigger disaster for Biden than Trump, I’d set the line around –500.

So, again, I ask – What in the world is Nancy Pelosi and the Democratic Party hoping to accomplish?

Because I’m not saying anything the DNC leadership doesn’t already know, right? They see what’s going on with the former Vice President. Hell, they have access to the behind-the-scenes stuff that’s hidden from the public eye. Considering all of the weirdness that’s already been caught on tape, I can only imagine what we’re not seeing.

Why would they set up a presidential frontrunner and beloved life-long member of the Democratic Party for failure this way? I can’t imagine it’s to help Pete Buttigieg or Andrew Yang – the only other non-Senatorial candidates.

It only makes sense if there’s somebody else…

Puppet Master

Here is what we know:
  • The entirety of the Democratic leadership and strategists aren’t stupid.
  • It can’t be good to have three of the party’s top four presidential candidates stuck in an impeachment trial 1-2 weeks before the Iowa caucuses.
  • There’s a zero-percent chance of removing Donald Trump from office through impeachment right now.
  • If Joe Biden is forced to testify, his campaign is effectively over.
  • The Democratic establishment 1) doesn’t want to nominate Bernie Sanders, and 2) is desperate for a centrist neoliberal candidate they can run against Trump.

There’s only one political family with the connections, motive, and willingness to leave this much collateral damage in their wake to get what they want: the Clintons.

Who else could get Nancy Pelosi out there smiling enthusiastically and gloating over a fool’s errand like this impeachment trial? Who else could motivate the entire DNC to execute such a dumb plan without anyone questioning the feasibility of the strategy publicly?

Hillary Clinton; it has to be. Don’t you think the timing of her and Chelsea’s book release is a coincidence? And why would she go on The Howard Stern Show for over two hours after the book was already a New York Times #1 Best Seller – weeks after the initial press tour?

She’s conveniently kept herself in the public eye, but without experiencing the rigors of the campaign trail – biding her time and resting up to take on Trump. When the progressives underperform in Iowa and New Hampshire because they couldn’t stump at the most crucial time, the stage will be set for a contested Democratic convention.

With the party split between progressives and moderates, and without a clear winner following the primaries, Hillary will swoop into the convention as the Democratic white knight – here to galvanize the party. The delegates will all get in line, and the rematch will be on.

It Explains Everything

Hillary Clinton setting the table for another run at the Oval Office is the only thing that makes everything else going on in American politics right now make sense. That’s why the Democrats are putting so much effort into an impeachment trial they know they can’t win.

It’s also why Hillary attacked Tulsi Gabbard as a “favorite of the Russians” — to ensure the Congresswoman wouldn’t run on a third-party ticket once the former Secretary of State stole the nomination.

Same with the comments to Howard Stern about Bernie Sanders – accusing him of being supported by Putin and complaining that he “hurt” her by not endorsing the Clinton candidacy early enough. In fact, that entire fluff interview with Howard – designed to make her seem as human and relatable as possible – was done with this backdoor DNC nomination in mind.

Call me crazy if you want; Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump II is coming.

The Upside – Betting Value

Betting Odds

  • Market Odds
  • Hillary to Win DNC Nomination +1000
  • Hillary to Win Presidential Election +2500

For the vast majority of Americans, another Hillary Clinton candidacy isn’t exactly inspiring. To many, she’s considered an elitist, power-hungry, war hawk – if not an outright criminal. The segment of the population that does love her, however, is extremely vocal and has a very loud voice.

All of the most prominent neoliberal media pundits will celebrate this huge “surprise,” as will the New York Times, Washington Post, and a horde of social media personalities. To the layman, it will appear as if the world is thrilled about another Clinton campaign. They’ll also put tremendous pressure on liberal voters not to make the same mistake by “betraying the party” twice.

Rematch Numbers

Sure, the Democrats will probably lose a portion of their progressive voters again – but will it be as many as last time?

Of that 20% of Democratic primary participants in 2016 who supported Bernie but either voted for Trump or a third-party candidate in the general election, how many would do the same thing again? Surely, some small percentage of those voters now feel strongly enough about the President that they wouldn’t risk helping him get re-elected, right?

Then, there’s the fact that during the last election cycle, emailso were leaked that showed the Clinton campaign and the Democratic National Committee essentially rigging the primaries against Bernie Sanders. Will they feel the same level of resentment in 2020?

Will they connect the dots to see that she’s manipulated the entire process to steal his nomination again if they go through this entire convoluted impeachment trial conspiracy first? Some will, but the DNC only needs to bring a small percentage of that 20% of Sanders supporters who deserted her last election.

When you break down the numbers in the electoral college, Hillary only lost by 77,000 votes across states like Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Don’t you think the Clinton cartel is looking at those numbers and the current conditions and feeling like they can fix what went wrong in 2016?

Listen to me, and listen to me well:
You want to put a substantial bet on Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic nomination – and maybe a little more on her winning the presidential election in 2020 – before her betting odds start to shorten.

Her odds have already started to move. One week ago, her lines were +3000 to become President and +1200 to win the Democratic nomination.

Today, they’re sitting at +2500 to win the 2020 election and +1000 to be the DNC’s nominee. If you have a bankroll of $150, I’d suggest putting $100 on Hillary in the Democratic primaries and $50 on the presidential election. You can thank me later.

Best Bets
Hillary Clinton to Win DNC Nomination
+1000
Hillary Clinton to Win 2020 Election
+2500
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Will Cormier / Author

Will Cormier is a sports and political betting writer living in downtown Las Vegas, Nevada. When he’s not wandering around the streets of the Arts District aimlessly, a lifetime of pessimism and paranoia has made Will perfectly suited for handicapping politics. Cormier tries to analyze current events as objectively as possible – a strategy that often enrages loyalists on both the right and the left. When he’s not covering major upcoming elections, Will enjoys writing about basketball, football, and MMA from a betting perspective. He also loves dogs, ice cream sundaes, the movie “Stomp the Yard,” and long walks on the beach.