Errol Spence Jr vs Shawn Porter Betting Preview

Errol Spence Jr and Shawn Porter - Premier Boxing Champions Logo

It is now boxing season!

Sure, the sweet scientists compete all year but the Fall never disappoints!

This week, we will have a Welterweight unification bout between the 30-2 Cleveland native Shawn Porter and undefeated New Yorker Errol Spence Jr.

I’m very very excited about this one.

I might need to borrow my girlfriend’s laptop to catch all of this weekend’s action.

There is a Featherweight Grand Prix tournament in Bellator MMA. That is the best card we have seen from the promotion maybe all year.

The UFC Fight Night card 160 is loaded with talent in Copenhagen, Denmark and one of the top five pound-for-pound boxers in the world is fighting too?!

I’m about to take multitasking to a whole nother level.

Two Weeks Ago:

The incomparable Tyson Fury fought a relatively unknown in Las Vegas in what was supposed to be a warm-up fight in preparation for his rematch with the “Bronze Bomber” Deontay Wilder in February of 2020.

It was anything but a warm-up!

Technical southpaw Otto Wallin gave the “Gypsy King” trouble early and then the unthinkable happened. He cornered the giant, put his head in his chest and clipped Tyson’s right brow with a short overhand left which split him wide open.

And I mean wide!

Shout out to Fury’s cornerman for keeping the bleeding to a minimum for 10 rounds.

Since it was not caused by a headbutt, an early-round stoppage would have awarded the fight to the massive underdog.

I’ll give it to Fury, though, he persevered, eventually took control of the action with pressure and heavy punches, and won a unanimous decision.

I have to say, though, he did NOT look good in that fight; cut or no cut. His father commented to the media a couple of days later and echoed that sentiment.

As of now, I’m favoring Wilder in the rematch.

Let’s get to this week’s fight, though, between two of the best welterweight boxers on the planet.

Errol Spence Jr is the heavy favorite against Shawn Porter who is, in my opinion, not at the level of the former.

One potential worry for Spence fans is that he could be looking ahead to an imminent showdown with Terrance “Bud” Crawford.

He will, of course, need a win here to get there but Crawford is the fight.

If and when those two men fight, it will be even more anticipated than Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin 1 or 2.

This is true at least from the hardcore boxing community.

One of our best sportsbooks BetOnline has the odds for us.

Let’s get to the breakdown and make out pick!

Errol Spence Jr vs Shawn Porter


The underdog Porter is a fighter who doesn’t mind making things ugly inside the ring. Many times, top fighters are faced with a dilemma when fighting someone more technically sound than themselves.

If they are a world champion boxer, then their technique is beautiful. Of course, some fighters are more scientific and artistic in there but you get it.

Boxers box and if they have been able to out-box every opponent they have ever faced, then why would they abandon that strategy?

The best competitors and coaches adjust accordingly.

It could be tennis. It could be after halftime in a football game.

This May Not Be the Most Relevant Example:

But look at how Floyd Mayweather adjusted against Conor McGregor. It may have been part of the game plan the entire time but as Conor exclaimed after the fight “I turned him into a Mexican!”

Sure, Floyd may have been letting the Irishman tire himself out, but McGregor was “boxing” well with Mayweather.

Slipping and ripping…fast footwork…

Then Floyd Sr saw C-Mac breathing hard in his corner and he said: “Okay, now get ‘eem!”

Mayweather abandoned his defensive style, put his gloves on his temples, walked McGregor down, and landed big shots.

Before we knew it, the fight was over.

Shawn Porter is a boxer who knows how to adjust and he will likely have to if he wants to defeat Errol Spence Jr on Saturday night.

Porter will need to be a bully in there and make it ugly. It’s as simple as that. Unless Spence has an off night, Shawn is going to need to make this fight as physical as possible.

Okay, long story short-he needs to bully Errol.

But, can he?

Porter has enacted this strategy with success before but it was against 140-pounders like Paulie Malignaggi who couldn’t match his strength or power.

It worked then but let’s see him try that on someone his own size.

When Porter fought Keith Thurman, he met his physical match and lost. The same thing happened with Kell Brook.

Please Note:

I’m not saying it’s a bad idea to get on the inside, play dirty, try to frustrate Spence, and catch him on the break but I just don’t believe he will be successful in doing so.

Errol Spence is a great fighter. He is regarded by some experts as the best boxer in the game right now. That is high praise when you think about the Vasyl Lomacenko’s of the world.

If he were a defensive stylist who preferred footwork over pocket punching, I would give Porter a better chance but Spence does his best work on the inside.

He is the fresher fighter, he is more skilled, and he hits harder.

He’s (-800) for a reason, I guess.

Did I say all of this to tell you guys an 8 to 1 favorite is going to win?

You’re like “Cool story, bro.”

The question is how Spence is going to win.

Currently, the over 11.5 rounds is at (+150). You can get “fight doesn’t go the distance” for (+170). Those are both cool!

Thurman is a tough cookie, yes, but Errol Spence needs to stop this man if he wants the respect he feels he deserves.

He had finished 11 straight fighters before Mikey Garcia took him to the scorecards in his last bout.

Porter is for sure durable but you don’t get to be called durable until you’ve been through some wars.

Our brains have a number; a number of how many times it can get hit. Goodness knows mine is too high but Shawn’s may be getting up there as well.

I think the stylistic crash of phone booth fighting action inside the pocket will lead to Porter getting hit with a looping shot on the break.

He will have to take a step back for it to happen and it probably won’t be early but after he realizes he can’t bully the New Yorker about halfway through the 36 minutes, I see a clip and a rip to finish him off.

The Bet
Spence Jr by Finish

In Conclusion

As much of an MMA fan that I’ve become, boxing still holds a special place in my heart.

I grew up during the hay day.

Mike Tyson, George Foreman, Lennox Lewis, Holyfield, Tito Trinidad, The Golden Boy, VA native Pernell Whitaker-RIP, Roy Jones Jr, and my favorite Tommy ”The Duke” Morrison…

The 90s was truly the last great generation. We definitely aren’t going back to the level of film or music we had then.

That’s long gone. Our movies pander to China more than the US and don’t get me started on mumble rap.

Boxing has the opportunity, though, to get back to where it was 25 or 30 years ago.

It starts with fighters like this week’s headliner Errol Spence Jr. He could work on his personality and sell fights a little better than he has but it’s hard to hate on respect.

Boxing needs this fight Saturday and the sport along with Spence needs a finish.

And we do too!

(+190) is pretty sweet for an 8-1 favorite.

Let’s hope Errol puts New York boxing back on the map this Saturday night with a KO of Shawn Porter.

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Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.