Submission Underground 29: Strickland vs Varela Betting Picks

SUG 29 Strickland Vs Varela

In this no-gi grappling tournament taking place on December 12th on UFC FIght Pass. SUG is a promotion that is very hard to track and follow. Oftentimes, the event’s don’t have a presence on the internet, as with SUG 29.

However betting on SUG 29 is available at, and even if you don’t have a Fight Pass subscription, you can place bets on all nine of the major grappling events and the overall team winner.

SUG 29 Rules

Submission underground is submission only. It’s one five minute period followed by three possible overtime periods. Someone will lose by submission, or the fastest escape across all overtime periods will receive the win.

This is great for betters, because SUG keeps it simple. You’ll only have access to money line bets and you won’t have to worry about weird judges’ decisions or draws throwing off your bet.

SUG Main Event, UFC’s Sean Strickland vs Andy Varela

Bet Odds, Winnings Per Dollar Wagered
Strickland +350. $3.50
Varela -450, $0.22

Sean Strickland, UFC light heavyweight, is up against 10th Planet Las Vegas BJJ black belt Andy Varela.

Andy Varela fights out of Las Vegas 10th Planet and is a regular on the Fight 2 Win and SUG circuit. Varela is 11-6 in his recorded grappling bouts in recent years, though he’s competed extensively in other organizations with fewer recorded fights.

Strickland is very physical, and very capable of bullying Varela. Many are of the opinion that Varela will win in the opening five minutes, or Strickland will take an overtime victory.

Strickland’s UFC Grappling

Strickland has one submission win inside the UFC. in longer bouts, such as his decision win over Igor Araujo or Court McGee, he attempted multiple submissions that he was unable to complete.

It’s clear that Strickland includes solid grappling in his MMA game, and his coaches at Syndicate are top tear BJJ artists. Sean is a brown belt.

Final Betting Pick

Varela has struggled with strong athletes in the past such as Hunter Colvin and Pedro Marinho.

Strickland is an underrated grappler. His athleticism and his varied skill may surprise many onlookers.

I Pick:
Sean Strickland!

Mercedes White vs Tara Larosa

Bet Odds, Winnings Per Dollar Wagered
White +200. $2.00
Larosa -260, $0.38


Larosa is a former TUF contestant who struggled in Invicta and other higher level women’s organizations. After losing her first pro grappling match she’s facing off against Mercedes white, a fighter who’s lost three straight pro grappling matches.

Larosa should take home an easy win. After watching a bit of White’s fight tape, it’s clear Larosa has more grappling experience.

I Pick:
Tara Larosa!

John Simon vs Phelan Carron

Bet Odds, Winnings Per Dollar Wagered
Simon +135. $1.35
Carron -165, $0.61

John is 2-1 for SUG, defeating Gilpin and Gadley. He’s shown some interesting leg lock attacks as well as overtime wins.

Carron is also 2-1, winning via escape and necktie.

Neither fighter is particularly decorated though they are both Black Belt level BJJ practitioners.

Carron has a more decorated MMA career, but Simon’s leg lock game will be tough to match for someone that isn’t ready for it.

I Pick:
John Simon!

Matt Ferraiolo vs Travis Moore

Bet Odds, Winnings Per Dollar Wagered
Ferraiolo +185. $1.85
Moore -225, $0.44

Ferraiolo is 3-2 over his last five grappling matches, losing to relatively unknown grapplers including Ricky Semiglla, a Brown belt from Orlando.

Moore is 3-1 over his last three grappling bouts.

He’s a footlocking specialist with two foot lock finishes at Who’s #1 and Fight 2 Win.

Bet Travis Moore at -225.

Jesse Hardenbrook vs Mikey Gonzalez

Bet Odds, Winnings Per Dollar Wagered
Hardenbrook +140. $1.40
Gonzalez -170, $0.59

Hardenbrook is a fighter from Warriorcamp MMA where he is also the BJJ coach alongside Zack Scheider.

Mikey Gonzalez is a talented Combat BJJ practitioner and DCWS contender where he lost to the undefeated Uros Medic.

Usually, it’s a downside to be the coach at your gym, but Jesse is leagues above Gonzalez in grappling.

I Pick:
Jesse Hardenbrook!

Terren Casson vs Kemoy Anderson

Bet Odds, Winnings Per Dollar Wagered
Casson +225. $2.25
Anderson -285, $0.35

Casson is a brown belt from Bellingham BJJ, and Anderson is a brown belt from 10th Planet El Pase. Anderson is also a strong wrestler and will likely take top position.

Expect Anderson to impose his athleticism on Casson early in the match.

Casson has two losses on Smoothcomp in gi and no recorded pro grappling no-gi wins.

I Pick:
Kemoy Anderson!

Zachary Minteer vs Colton Vaughn

Bet Odds, Winnings Per Dollar Wagered
Minteer +200. $2.00
Vaughn -260, $0.38

Minteer is a new black belt who took third at the Pan Ams Master 2 division in 2021.

Vaughn is a younger grappler and professional MMA fighter. Vaughn is 1-1 at SUG and trains out of 10th Planet Seattle.

Though it’s  tough to call, it looks like Vaughn is in better shape. While Minteer is more experienced, I think Vaughn will win due to athleticism.

I Pick:
Colton Vaughn!

Mark Hamel vs Jason Patterson

Bet Odds, Winnings Per Dollar Wagered
Hamel +125. $1.25
Patterson -155, $0.65

Hamel is a Sug veteran and leg lock-centered fighter.

Patterson is a purple belt in BJJ and a college-level wrestler. He has 22 wins across various BJJ divisions, all while training at 10th Planet Las Vegas.

I see Patterson looking for the takedown early, but Hamel already beat a division one wrestler in Daniel Walsh. This isn’t new territory for him.

I Pick:
Mark Hamel!

Caleb Stecker vs Ian King

Bet Odds, Winnings Per Dollar Wagered
Stecker -165. $0.61
King +135, $1.35

Stecker is a 10th Planet fighter who’s 1-1 in professional bjj. He’s currently a purple belt. Ian King is a Judo practitioner under Fabiano Schermer out of ATT Portland.

After reviewing a few matches, it looks like Stecker will take it.

He’s younger, more dynamic, and more seasoned in this style of combat sports.

I Pick:
Ian King!

Team BTT vs Team TORO

Bet Odds, Winnings Per Dollar Wagered
BTT +190. $1.90
TORO -240, $0.42

These Tag Team BJJ matches are a blast to watch if not a bit confusing. Truthfully, I don’t know what to make of it. I’ll be putting money on TORO to make the match a bit more exciting. It seems they have more experienced grapplers.

However, last-minute replacements are an option so there’s no telling who could show up on either team.

I Pick:
Team TORO!

SUG 29 Full Card Betting Pick Wrap Up

If you’re new to BJJ betting, check out our guide. Many MMA bettors are tentative to get into BJJ betting, and I think SUG is one of the best places to start. It’s betting lines are simple and the rules aren’t hard to follow.
Thanks again sports fans and leave a comment in the box below for more betting tips and articles.


Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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