We are just one day away from the Big Game, Super Bowl 55 from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay! The Super Bowl is the most bet on sporting event in the world, and this year it is estimated that over 7 billion dollars will be bet on Super Sunday. Yes, that is billion with a B! While there are thousands of different ways to bet on the game, one of the least utilized ways to bet, that can actually end up being wildly profitable, is taking what the books call alternate point spreads.
In this article, we are going to take a look at some of the various alternate point spreads for Super Bowl 55 and tell you which ones you should bet for jumbo payouts! Let’s get started by first introducing you to the concept of point spreads and alternate point spreads.
What Is A Point Spread?
If you are reading this article, you very likely already know what the point spread is for a football game. But for those of you that aren’t fully aware of how point spreads work, listen up. The books assign a point spread on a game when the teams aren’t evenly matched enough to attract action on both sides. Remember, the books don’t care who wins or losses if they can take the same amount of money on both sides of the game.
We have all heard the term the house always wins, and in the sports betting world, the house always wins because they never gamble on a game. Sportsbooks are always looking to attract equal action on both sides of a bet, which, in the industry, we call balancing your book. If a book is perfectly balanced on a game, they collect the 10% juice from both sides, and they can’t lose. The casinos love it when they can’t lose.
But as is the case in most things in life, it’s not always easy for the books to stay balanced on a game. That is why they assign a point spread to games. Let’s take Super Bowl 55, for example. Most people seem to think that the Kansas City Chiefs are the better team in this matchup. They are the defending Super Bowl champs, and they finished the regular season as the NFL’s top team.
If the books allowed you to bet on this game without a point spread, nearly everyone would take the Chiefs. That would be great for the books if Tom Brady somehow takes home his 7th Super Bowl title, but if Mahomes and company go back-to-back, they would stand to lose millions. So, instead of allowing you to take Kansas City to win the game straight up, they make you lay -3.5-points. That means if you bet on the Chiefs, they have to win by 4-points or more for you to cash your ticket.
Contrary to popular belief, the books making the Chiefs -3.5-point favorites in this game doesn’t necessarily mean that they think the Chiefs are going to win by that exact number, it’s just the number that they think it will take to get the betting public to take both sides of the game evenly. The books will move this line up and down in the build-up to the game to make sure all of the action is coming in evenly on both sides. Now that you know what a point spread is, let’s take a look at what an alternate point spread is all about.
What Is An Alternate Point Spread?
We just talked about how the books assign a point spread on a game, now we are going to look at what are known as alternate point spreads. Do you really want to root for Brady and the Bucs, but you think they are going to lose by 5-points, not 3.5? Well, the books will still allow you to take the Bucs +5-points if that is what you want, but they are going to charge you to do it.
On a normal point spread, the standard juice is 10% or -110. That means for every $110 you bet, you win $100. In simple terms, you are laying 11 to win 10. That is how the books make their money, by collecting that juice. If you wanted to take Tampa bay +5-points, and buy up that extra point and a half, the books are now going to charge you -157 on your bet. That means instead of having to bet $110 to win $100, you have to bet $157 to win $100.
If you want those extra points, you are going to have to pay for them! What if you are on the other side of things, and you think that Tampa Bay isn’t only going to win the game, that they are going to blow the Chiefs out? Well, the books will take that action as well, as you can take Tampa Bay laying up to -7-points. Do you see Tom Brady riding off into the Tampa Bay sunset with yet another Super Bowl ring in blowout fashion? A bet on Tampa Bay -7-points would pay out +390. That means for every $100 you bet, you would win back $390. Juicy right?
Will we finally witness the Changing Of The Guard?
Chiefs are currently 3.5 point favorites
— MyBookie Sportsbook (@MyBookieBet) February 6, 2021
The books are currently offering every points spread you would want on this game, ranging from Tampa Bay +15 at -715 to Kansas City -15 at +475. You can also take alternate point spreads on the game total over/under as well! The current total at most books is sitting right at 56-points. But you can set your own over/under anywhere from 42.5 to 68.5! No matter how you see the game playing out, the books are right here, willing to take your action.
As you can see, some of these alternate points spread bets can offer huge payouts. You are going to have to gamble a little bit to get those jumbo payouts, but at the end of the day, that’s what we are here to do, right? Make some money and have a fun sweat while doing it! Now that you know all about point spreads and alternate point spreads, I am going to give you a couple of alternate lines that I think offer significant value for super Bowl 55!
What Should You Bet?
In this final section, I am going to give you my three favorite alternate point spread bets for Super Bowl 55. While these are my favorite plays for the Big Game, there are lots more options available, and you are going to want to check out TheSportsGeek’s Super Bowl 55 betting page, where we offer exclusive deals at all of the best online sportsbooks for you to bet on the Big Game.
Game Total Over 60 Points (+155)
Both of these teams have high powered pass-first offenses that can put points up on the board in an instant. The Chiefs had the top offense in the league this year in terms of yards per game, and had they not benched their entire team in week 17, they could have ended up as the top scoring offense as well. The Bucs actually finished the regular season scoring more points per game than the Chiefs did, and they enter play tomorrow, having scored at least 30-points in their last six games.
We all know that both of these teams are capable of scoring 30+ points at any time, the question is, will they do it on Sunday? For a game to go over a total as high as 60 points, you need both teams scoring on basically every possession, and you need there to be a lot of passing and big plays. Run dominant teams are always going to struggle to go over big point totals as the clock never stops running.
But in this game, you can expect a similar repeat to when these teams matched up in week 11, where both teams basically completely abandoned the run. In that game, the Chiefs threw the ball 50 times and had designed runs on just 16 plays. KC gained 462 yards through the air and just 87 yards on the ground. The Bucs used a similar game plan as Brady dropped back and passed it 41 times, while they only had 12 running plays called. Tampa had 345 passing yards and just 75 rushing yards.
We're as ready as we've ever been. pic.twitter.com/lu2vhnyv2t
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) February 5, 2021
I expect more of the same on Sunday. Brady and Mahomes have matched up twice in their careers, where they stacked up huge point totals, with both games coming in the AFC. Now, to be fair, those games came when Brady was playing for the Patriots, but with the Bucs playing an even more pass-happy scheme than New England did, we can expect at least as much passing on Sunday as we saw in those two games, and if that is the case, we are going to see fireworks!
In 2018, the Patriots beat the Chiefs with a final score of 43-40. It was a crazy game where both teams scored at will, and it came down to which team had the ball last to decide a winner. Brady and Mahomes combined for almost 700 yards passing in that wild affair. In 2019, we saw the rematch, and in that one, it was again New England coming out on top, this time 37-31. When these two elite QBs matchup, they can light up the scoreboard.
This game could coast over 60-points if we see big plays early. And with home run hitters like Tyreek Hill and Mike Evans on the field, it wouldn’t be remotely shocking to see long scoring plays early in this game. If KC jumps out to an early lead like they did in week 11, and Brady and the Bucs start letting it fly early, this one goes over this total without a sweat. I am not saying it will go over 60-points, but I am saying that it shows plenty of value at this price for a play!
Chiefs -10 Points (+260)
If I had to give my opinion on this game, I would say there are two likely scenarios. The first scenario is that Kansas City’s offense is just too much for the Tampa Bay defense, and this game gets out of hand. We saw that in the AFC Championship game, where the Chiefs dismantled a fairly stout Buffalo Bills defense. KC dropped 38-points on the Bills, and they won the game by two touchdowns. The scary part for Tampa Bay fans is that the Chiefs clearly took their foot off the gas pedal in that game, as they built a huge lead early.
Tyreek Hill has 200 Rec Yards today.
It is still just the 1st quarter…
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 29, 2020
The Chiefs could have scored 50 in that one if they wanted to. Looking back again at that week 11 matchup, the Chiefs were ahead 17-0 in the first quarter of that game. Tyreek Hill was completely unstoppable in the first half, with over 200-yards receiving by halftime. Had KC kept bombing it downfield to Hill, I’m not sure the Bucs could have ever slowed him down. With this being the Super Bowl and the Chiefs not needing to leave any gas left in the tank, I can see them going for broke early and often, as Tampa Bay didn’t show any ability to stop Mahomes from getting whatever he wanted.
If the Chiefs win, I think they are going to win fairly easily. The last thing you ever want to do is play a close game with Tom Brady in the playoffs, as he tends to win way more of those than he losses. If KC gets the chance to run it up, they are going to take full advantage of it. Like the rest of these bets, this is high risk, high reward, but KC could blow this one out, and getting +260 is very juicy.
Buccaneers -2 Points (+165)
I could sit here and list all of Tom Brady’s postseason accomplishments, but I think at this point, we all know what the GOAT has done in the playoffs. The six Super Bowl rings, the ten trips to the Big Game, all of the postseason passing and wins records, we all know all of that by now. But what has impressed me the most about Brady, particularly in the Super Bowl, is how he almost always seems to win when the game is close.
Brady and the Patriots won Super Bowl XXXVI against the greatest show on turf St. Louis Rams by 3-points. Two years later, they beat the Carolina Panthers, again by 3-points. The Pats followed that up the very next year with another Super Bowl title, this time beating the Philadelphia Eagles, by get this, 3-points. Fast forward to 2015, and Brady in Super Bowl XLIX beat the Seattle Seahawks by 4-points. In 2017, New England won against the Atlanta Falcons in overtime. Brady’s final Super Bowl win came in 2019, when the Pats beat the Rams 13-3 in a game that was tied up at 3-3 until late in the fourth quarter.
Brady is the best winner in the history of the NFL. His ability to take a Tampa Bay team that hadn’t been in the playoffs in years, to the Super Bowl this year, cemented his status as one of the top all-time winners in any sport. And when he is in a close game that matters, he finds a way to win the game. I don’t really see any way that the Buccaneers win this game by more than a couple of points at the absolute most. If they win, it’s going to be because Brady finds a way to gut out another last-minute victory, likely he always seems to do.
Oh no.. pic.twitter.com/zpvhuEAjyw
— NFL Memes (@NFL_Memes) February 5, 2021
You could take the Bucs on the money line, but with this alternate point spread of Tampa Bay laying -2-points, you get a much more attractive payout. And at the end of the day, it’s pretty hard to win a game in the NFL and not win by more than exactly 1-point. If the Bucs win, they are either winning by 1-point, 2-points, or 3-points. If they win by one, we lose, if they win by two, we push, and if they win by three, we scoop a ticket at +165. If you run that scenario three times, with each one coming up once, we show a nice long-term profits on the play.
Mahomes winning his second Super Bowl this early in his career would be big news. But Brady leading his new team to a Super Bowl win after his long career in New England is the stuff Disney movies are made of. If you aren’t a Bucs or Chiefs fan, and you don’t have a dog in this fight, it’s hard not to want to root for the 43-year-old Brady. This bet gives you that opportunity to root for the story tail ending and get paid off nicely if it comes in!
Super Bowl 55 is sure to be a game that goes down in the history books! Will it be Tom Brady and his Tampa Bay Buccaneers winning as the first-ever team to play the Super Bowl on their home field? Or will Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs go back-to-back to establish a new modern-day dynasty in the AFC? Whatever the case may be, we are in for a good one on Super Sunday! Thanks for reading, and make sure that you stay tuned to TheSportsGeek for all of your Super Bowl 55 betting advice!