Super Bowl 56 Betting Odds Preview

The NFL playoffs kick off this weekend, and now that we have the field and matchups finalized, we have updated odds to win the big one, Super Bowl 56. Super Bowl 56 will be held in Inglewood, California, at SoFi Stadium, the new home of both the LA Rams and LA Chargers, and with the expanded playoffs this year, we have more teams than ever vying for their spot in the Big Game.

In this article, we are going to break down the teams into 3 categories. First, we will look at the favorites, then the contenders, and finally, we will look at the longshots, giving you a team to bet from each tier of teams. With that, let’s jump right into it and break down the Super Bowl 56 betting odds. Let’s get started!

The Favorites

In this first section, we are going to break down the betting odds on the favorites. After one of the craziest NFL regular seasons in recent memory, where we saw essentially the entire league still in the playoff hunt deep into the season, as we hit the playoffs, this list of favorites looks a heck of a lot like the list of favorites in the preseason. It took a long and winding road to get here, but the best teams coming into the season are still the best teams as the playoffs kick off this weekend.

Green Bay Packers (+380)

If making it to the NFC Championship game was enough to cash this ticket, I would be all over the Green Bay Packers! But it’s not, so I think I am going to have to pass on the Packers this year. Green Bay has made a habit of getting close to the Super Bowl but coming up just short, as they have lost in the NFC Championship game 4 times in the last 7 years. After winning it all in 2010, it has been a decade of heartbreak for Packer’s fans as Rodgers is always the bridesmaid and never the bride.

The Packers are understandably the betting favorites in the NFC, as that bye week is huge this year. In years past, both of the top-2 seeds got a bye in the opening round, and with the expansion of the playoffs, now only the top team in each conference gets the week off. That is even bigger when you throw in all of the COVID-19 related issues teams are having to deal with and that extra regular season game that was played last week.

But my gut tells me that we have seen this song and dance too many times to trust the Packers in the playoffs. We won’t know who Green Bay has to play first until after the wild card round, and whichever team has to travel to the frozen tundra of Green Bay, Wisconsin to play the Packers is going to have an uphill battle on their hands, but after watching the Tampa Bay Buccaneers walk into Lambeau Field last year and leave with the victory, beating the Packers at home isn’t going to be mission impossible.

Kansas City Chiefs (+450)

The Kansas City Chiefs came into this season as the favorites to win the AFC, and they are still the favorites now, as they won their 5th consecutive division title with a 12-5 record and hit the postseason as the #2 seed in the conference. Kansas City is looking to make it to their 3rd consecutive Super Bowl, winning it 2 years ago and losing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year, but even with as great as this team has been in the Patrick Mahomes era, things weren’t looking very good for KC early in the season.

The Chiefs came out of the gates slow, and after they lost to the Tennessee Titans in week 7, they dipped below .500 with a 3-4 record, and it looked like that championship window might be closing in Kansas City. But then the Chiefs hit their stride, winning 9 of their last 10 games, to lock up the division title. Betting against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs has been a losing proposition in his stint running the Chief’s high-powered offense, but when I take a look at who the Chiefs have lost to this year, Chiefs fans have to be on edge.

The Chiefs lost to Baltimore, Los Angeles (Chargers), Buffalo, Tennessee, and Cincinnati in the regular season. That is a who’s who of AFC contenders as 3 of those teams are in the playoffs, and the 2 that missed out on the playoffs both had a shot at making the postseason heading into week 18. The Chiefs were undefeated against the NFC this year, but their only wins over teams that are currently in the AFC playoffs were over the Raiders (twice) and the Steelers.

With the Chief’s well-documented struggles against the AFC, their side of the bracket is going to be filled with landmines. I can’t imagine that KC isn’t going to be able to end Ben Roethlisberger’s career in their opening game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but having to win 2 games against either Bills, Bengals, Patriots, or Titans might just be too much for Kansas City. The Chiefs are good, but they aren’t great, and I think we can find more value further down the board.

Buffalo Bills (+800)

I am not going to lie, I have been high on the Buffalo Bills since before the start of the season. I thought this was going to be the year that Josh Allen and company elevated to the best team in the NFL. But that didn’t happen, as Buffalo just couldn’t beat good teams consistently.

The Bills managed to beat the Chiefs and the Patriots on the road in the regular season, which tells me that this team can still get hot and go on a run, but losses to Pittsburgh, Tennessee, New England, and Tampa Bay, teams that they may have to beat to win a Super Bowl, has me wondering if the Bills are priced a little too aggressively as the 3rd favorite in the NFL.

I absolutely hate that the Bills have to play against Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots in the first round, which is easily the toughest first-round game of any of these contending teams. Buffalo beat the Patriots late in the season with the division title on the line, but they did lose at home to New England in week 13, when the Pats defense held them to just 10 points. If I had to take a stand on that game with New England, I would lean ever so slightly towards Buffalo, but with a coin flip game in the opening round, I can’t justify backing the Bills at this price.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+800)

Tom Brady is the greatest winner in the history of the NFL. But I am not sure even TB12 can stop the impending disaster that is playing out in Tampa Bay right now. Injuries and defections have kneecapped the Bucs as they have been forced to play without superstars like Leonard Fournette, Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, and Lavonte David. Rumor has it that Fournette and Davis will be back on the field for the Bucs wild card game with the Philadelphia Eagles, but will that be enough to get the Bucs back to the Super Bowl to defend their title?

No player has been better in their career at ignoring distractions than Tom Brady, but with Antonio Brown doing the talk show circuit and throwing his former best friend and teammate under the bus any chance that he can get, and a first-round matchup with an Eagles team that handed him his last Super Bowl loss a couple of years back, Brady’s leadership and focus are going to be tested.

Had the Bucs stayed healthy, they would be my pick to win the Super Bowl, as they have everything that you would want in a championship team. Great leader in Tom Brady, great coach in Bruce Arians, and an elite defense, but with things spiraling out of control in the last several weeks, I have my doubts about whether or not this team can repeat as champs. They say it is always easier to get to the top of the mountain than it is to stay there, and this might finally be the time that Tom Brady doesn’t have enough to carry his team to the Super Bowl.

Tennessee Titans (+850)

It has been relatively easy to poke holes in each of these favorite’s resumes, as there just isn’t a great team this year, and you can find flaws with every team still playing. And while that is true for the Tennessee Titans as well, Tennessee has a couple of things going for them that these other favorites don’t have. First, they offer a better price than all of these other favorites, second, they are getting healthy at just the right time, and third, they are the number one seed in the AFC, and get the conference’s only bye!

You hear basically nothing about Tennessee right now from the mainstream media, which is shocking considering they managed to find a way to finish as the top seed in the AFC, despite having to play without by far their best player, in superstar running back Derrick Henry for the entire 2nd half of the season. To see the number 1 seed getting ignored and written off by just about everybody is something that I don’t know if I have ever seen in the NFL.

Oh, and did I mention that Derrick Henry is going to be back for the playoffs? King Henry finished 9th in the NFL in rushing yards, and he only played 8 games! Had he stayed healthy all season long, he had a real shot at breaking the all-time single season rushing record. Getting the NFL’s best runner back on the field is something that can’t be understated, and the fact that both AJ Brown and Julio Jones are also both back on the field, after missing significant time with injuries, has me hyped up on the Titans chances to run the table and win it all.

We haven’t seen the Titans at full strength since week 8, but looking back on how this team played when all of their best players were on the field, they beat both the Chiefs and Bills at home, and if the seeds hold, those are the teams that they are going to have to play to make it to the Super Bowl. Derrick Henry’s health is the wild card here, but if he truly is healthy and ready to carry the ball 25+ times, I love a play on the Titans to win Super Bowl 56. Tennessee finding a way to earn that bye week is certainly coming up huge right now, as they get an extra week for Henry to heal up and practice, and the Titans are where I will make my play from this top tier of favorites.

The Bet
Tennessee Titans

The Contenders

This next tier of teams are the teams that can absolutely win Super Bowl 56, but would need some things to break their way for them to get it done. These aren’t the favorites, but nobody would be shocked if any of these teams took home the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the year.

LA Rams (+1000)

It is impossible to be more all-in than the LA Rams are right now. They made the blockbuster trade to bring in Matthew Stafford in the offseason, and mid-season deals to grab Von Miller and O’Dell Beckham Jr made it clear that it is Super Bowl or bust this year for the Rams. After a mid-year slump where they lost 3 games in a row, the Rams got things moving in the right direction, winning 5 straight games before the week 18 overtime loss to the San Francisco 49ers.

I will be the first to admit that I thought the ODB move was going to backfire as the guy has a reputation as a locker room killer, but I will also be the first to admit that I was wrong, as Beckham has been a model citizen for the Rams, and he has gotten the job done on the field as well. Cooper Kupp is still the number 1 option for Stafford in the passing game, but ODB has been great in the red zone for LA, with 5 TD catches in just 8 games, and he stops opposing defenses from doubling Kupp much of the time.

Similar to the Titans, the Rams are getting healthy at the right time as running back Cam Akers has rejoined the team after missing the entire regular season. The Rams had a solid rushing attack with the 2-headed monster of Sony Michel and Darrell Henderson, but you can never have too many guys to carry the football in the playoffs. Akers was a 2nd round draft pick and had a nice rookie season last year and getting him back on the field only makes this already lethal Rams offense even better.

Had the Rams not lost their final regular-season game to San Francisco, they would have been a higher seed and would have hit the postseason on a 6-game winning streak. The fact that they lost that game has muted the expectations for LA for some people, but not me, as I see this as a team that needs to be feared in the NFC. The only reason that I have the Rams in this 2nd tier of teams is because of the price, as LA is currently getting double-digit odds to win it all, and they are my pick from the contender’s tier to win Super Bowl 56.

Dallas Cowboys (+1100)

If the Dallas Cowboys could find a way to play losing teams in the postseason, they would be a stone-cold lock to run the table. But in the NFL, only good teams make the playoffs, and the Cowboys just haven’t shown me that they can compete with, and beat, the best teams the league has to offer. Dallas is just 3-4 against teams that made the postseason, and 2 of those wins came over the 7th-seeded Philadelphia Eagles, who are lucky to even still be alive.

You wouldn’t know it by listening to Cowboy’s fans, but Dallas hasn’t made it to even the NFC Championship game this millennium, as the last time they made a deep run in the postseason was when they won the Super Bowl in 1995. The Cowboys have a total of 4 playoff wins since, all coming in the wild card round, and the fact that people are actually buying into this team as a real threat to win Super Bowl 56 is beyond comical. If you have any Cowboys stock, I suggest you sell it in a hurry, as this season is going to end like every other Cowboy’s season in a generation, in heartbreak.

Cincinnati Bengals (+1800)

I love what is going on in Cincinnati. Joe Burrow has all of the talent and swagger you would ever want in a franchise quarterback, and his collection of weapons in Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd gives Cincy an offense that can score with any team in the league. But my gut says that the Bengals are still a year or 2 away from truly contending to win the Super Bowl.

The Bengals haven’t won a playoff game since, wait for it, 1990! That makes the Cowboys look like a postseason juggernaut by comparison, and after a generation of ineptitude, just about everybody involved in this franchise has to already feel accomplished just making the postseason. The offense is great, but the Bengals are too willing to get into a shootout with teams, and their pass defense isn’t good enough to hold up, ranked 26th in the NFL is passing yards allowed per game. Expect an early exit for the Bengals, which for most Bengals fans is going to be good enough, at least for now.

San Francisco 49ers (+2000)

I went back and forth on how I see the NFC bracket playing out, and the team I couldn’t quite nail down was the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners are lucky to even still be playing, as they had to win on the road against the Rams in the season finale just to get into the playoffs, but now that they are here, this team is scary. I love a play on San Francisco to win their opening-round game against the Dallas Cowboys, but with their poor seed, their next game will likely come on the road at Green Bay, and I don’t know if SF has what it takes to win in January at Lambeau Field.

For whatever reason, the 49ers management seems determined to move on from Jimmy G, despite the fact that the guy always seems to win when he is healthy, so I am not sure how the near-term future is going to play out in San Francisco. But what I do know is that SF has one of the most versatile players in the league in Deebo Samuel, a stud rookie running back in Elijah Mitchell, a top-3 tight end in George Kittle, and one of the top defensive units in the NFC. Who knows what the future might hold for the 49ers, but at least for now, I don’t think it is a Super Bowl title, at least not this year.

New England Patriots (+2200)

The other team that I considered making a play on out of this tier of teams was the New England Patriots. The Patriots have the top scoring defense in the league, but they are forced to play on the road against a very talented Buffalo Bills team. Their reward if they do find a way to beat Buffalo? A road game against the top-seeded Tennessee Titans. A win over Tennessee? Then another road game, likely against the Kansas City Chiefs.

That is an absolutely brutal path to the Super Bowl, and as great as Bill Belichick has been in his career, Mac Jones isn’t Tom Brady, and I see the lack of explosive options on offense eventually catching up with New England. Nobody is going to want to have to play the Patriots, but they have too tough of a path to want to back at this price.

Arizona Cardinals (+2500)

The only reason that the Cardinals are listed as a contender and not a long shot is that the books have mispriced this team so badly that they have to be included in the 2nd tier and not the 3rd. That being said, the Arizona Cardinals aren’t winning the Super Bowl. Heck, they aren’t even winning a game.

Early in the season, it looked like this could be the year for Arizona as Kyler Murray was playing at an MVP level, and DeAndre Hopkins continued to be one of the best pass-catchers in the NFL, but after Murray missed significant time with an injury, he just hasn’t been the same, and Hopkins won’t even be on the field for the playoffs as he suffered a season-ending injury late in the year. This is going to go down as one of those what could have been types of seasons for Arizona, and I see their season ending in LA in round one.

The Bet
Los Angeles Rams

The Longshots

This final tier of teams are the shock the world teams. If these teams even win a game, it will be considered a success, let alone a run all of the way to the Super Bowl. That being said, you never hit a home run if you don’t swing for the fences, and these teams are your chance at a jumbo payout!

Las Vegas Raiders (+6000)

There is no team in the NFL that has gone through as much adversity this season as the Las Vegas Raiders. They are playing in a new city, their head coach got fired for emails he sent a decade ago, both of their 2020 first-round draft picks got in trouble with the law and were cut, and their Hall of Fame former head coach, and face of the franchise, John Madden, died late in the season. Throw in that Las Vegas had to win their final 4 games of the season, including an insane week 18 game against the LA Chargers in overtime, the fact that the Raiders are even in the postseason is a miracle.

We have seen time and again that a team that has gone through the trauma that this Raiders team has, sometimes bands them together, and they can do some hard-to-believe things. The nobody believes in us mentality is real in the NFL, and with the ghost of John Madden looming over them as an additional win one for the Gipper type of motivation, the Raiders could shock the world. I don’t think it will happen, but I will plunk down a couple of bucks on Vegas to continue their unlikely run, even if it is mostly just a tribute to the late great John Madden.

Philadelphia Eagles (+6000)

The Eagles making the playoffs is a feel-good story for a lot of reasons. I love Jalen Hurts, and you can’t deny that the story of the benched Alabama player turned NFL star is one that is easy to root for. But this team is very limited, and even in the NFC, where there are some questionable teams in the playoffs, the Eagles stick out as the weakest of the group. It was a fun run, and the future is bright in Philly, but the end of the road is near for the Eagles.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+9000)

The Steelers are another team that shocked just about everybody by even being alive right now. Even after we got to the final week of the season, the chances that the Steelers got into the playoffs were very slim, and they were one Raiders overtime field goal away from not making it, even after a multitude of other things went their way. It would make a terrific Disney movie if somehow Big Ben was able to rally the troops for one last run to a ring to end his storied career, but it just ain’t happening. Mike Tomlin is a really good head coach, but he just doesn’t have the guys this year for a deep run.

The Bet
Las Vegas Raiders

Wrap Up

And there you have it, folks, my breakdown of the current betting odds to win Super Bowl 56! We here at TheSportsGeek are your go-to source for all things Super Bowl 56, so make sure you stay tuned to TSG as we get closer to kickoff of the biggest spectacle in sports, the Super Bowl! Thanks for reading, and good luck betting the NFL the rest of the way out!

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Jason Gray / Author

Jason is a true Las Vegas insider as he has called the sports betting capital of the world his home for sixteen years. Jason started out his career in gaming by running the biggest poker tournaments in the world and managing some of the biggest sportsbooks on the strip. Jason has transitioned out of casino operations and has been covering sports betting for the sports geek for just over two years. His main focus is on baseball, college basketball, and the NFL

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