Super Tuesday Betting Preview & Picks: Massachusetts

Super Tuesday

Super Tuesday
On March 3, 16 jurisdictions – 14 states, American Samoa, and Democrats Abroad — will hold their primaries to decide which Democratic candidates will receive a portion of their pledged delegates. By the end of Super Tuesday, roughly 60% of the total number of pledged delegates will be allocated, giving us a clearer picture of the eventual nominee. This post is one in a series of articles previewing each state, the demographic makeup of the electorate, the most recent political betting odds, and our favorite picks.
Candidate To Win Massachusetts Primary
Joe Biden +3000
Bernie Sanders -400
Michael Bloomberg +10000
Amy Klobuchar +10000
Elizabeth Warren +350
Massachusetts Primary Stats
Date: 3/3/2020
Pledged Delegates Available: 91
Superdelegates: 23

538 State Primary/Caucus Poll Totals (updated 2/28/2020):

  • Sanders (30%)
  • Biden (18%)
  • Warren (25%)
  • Klobuchar (8%)
  • Bloomberg (16%)
  • Gabbard (1%)

Voter Demographics (from Ballotpedia.org):

  • Female: 51.5%
  • White: 79.6%
  • Black/African American: 7.1%
  • Hispanic/ Latino: 10.6%
  • Asian: 6%
  • Persons Below Poverty Level: 13.1% (US 11.3%)
  • College Graduation Rate: 40.5% (US 29.8%)

Election Betting Update

Update 1 (2/29/20):
On Saturday, February 29, Joe Biden handily won the South Carolina primary with roughly 48.4% of the vote, winning him 35 pledged delegates. Bernie Sanders finished in second place with 19.9% and 13 delegates. Nobody else met the required 15% threshold; thus, only Sanders and Biden won any national delegates. Tom Steyer dropped out of the race on the night of the South Carolina primaries despite finishing in third place with 11.3% of the vote.

Joe Biden’s considerable margin of victory has put him in the lead in terms of the overall popular vote (though Bernie still has more delegates), inspiring talks of a comeback, with many in the media now considering the former VP the favorite to win the nomination again. This momentum shift dramatically changes the overall outlook of the race as well as the conditions in several close Super Tuesday races. For that reason, I’ve adjusted some of my thoughts and picks accordingly.

Update 2 (3/1/20):
Pete Buttigieg announced that he’d be dropping out of the race on Sunday, March 1, 2020. His absence will play a significant role in Super Tuesday betting. By all accounts, his departure from the race was coordinated by the DNC and his campaign to boost Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren this week.

The party wants Amy Klobuchar to stay in until after Super Tuesday, in order to split the delegate haul for Minnesota with Bernie Sanders, who’s slated to win her home state. She will likely announce the suspension of her campaign on Tuesday night or Wednesday. These coordinated moves show a united moderate front, all working together against Sen. Sanders. This reality must be taken into account when wagering from here on out.

Additionally, the former Mayor’s removal from the field has increased the odds of a contested convention. While Sanders is still the favorite to win a majority of the pledged delegates, FiveThirtyEight places the likelihood of him doing so at 23% (down from 28%).

Meanwhile, the probability of a contested convention goes up from 59% to 64%. In many districts, candidates like Bloomberg and Warren have been hovering just a few points shy of the 15% threshold to win a portion of the delegates.

Even if Buttigieg’s supporters were divided equally – which they will not be – that 2-3% bump provided to those candidates will negatively impact Bernie Sanders, who is already viable in most areas – and will thus, only see a meager improvement in earned delegates, while only a few points can’t raise others to viability.

Things to Consider

1) Massachusetts is Elizabeth Warren’s home state.

To be a serious presidential candidate, a potential nominee should win their home state. They’re familiar with the residents and political machinations of the region; plus, voters tend to enjoy seeing one of their own in the White House.

Unfortunately, for Elizabeth Warren, her probability of winning Massachusetts has been tanking over the past couple of months.

Warren is at risk of losing her home state, the latest indignity in her long slide in the polls in her own backyard. As recently as October, the two-term Senator held a 20-percentage point lead over Sanders, according to a WBUR poll. In the latest version of the poll, released Friday, she trailed him by 8 points.”

After getting shut out of the pledged delegates once again in South Carolina, Warren admitted that her only path to the nomination goes through a brokered convention. On Saturday night, the two-term Senator set her sights on Bernie – supposedly her progressive ally. It’s now apparent that Warren is only staying in the race — with her eight pledged delegates earned through four states – to hurt Sanders’s campaign.

While the Vermont Senator has never negatively addressed Liz, her perceived betrayal may be responsible for Bernie’s campaign’s increased interest in Massachusetts. If he’s able to beat Warren in her own state, the pressure to drop out will be immense.

On Saturday, February 29, 10,000 Sanders supporters rallied in the local Senator’s backyard:

“If we have the largest voter turnout in the history of the Massachusetts primary on Tuesday… We can win here. We can win the Democratic nomination, we can defeat Donald Trump, and we can transform this country,” Sanders told the crowd.

The Vermont senator was met with erupting cheers and chants of his campaign slogan for 2020: “Not me. Us.” Later, a sea of people waving “Bernie” signs and chanting his name followed Sander’s exit from the rally, which was located mere miles from Warren’s home in Cambridge and near the campus of Harvard University.”

2) Demographically, Massachusetts is similar to New Hampshire, Connecticut, and Maine.

It’s easy to get caught up in the latest campaign results – allowing recency bias to cloud your judgment when handicapping an upcoming contest. Joe Biden’s victory in South Carolina has the media ready to crown the former VP, despite the southern state being somewhat unique demographically.

On Super Tuesday, the allocation of Massachusetts’ 91 pledged delegations should more closely resemble the first two electoral contests – Iowa and New Hampshire – than the last one. The state is predominately white, more affluent than most states, and more liberal than most of the country – with multiple top-tier universities in the region.

Prediction:
The Massachusetts race will come down to Warren and Sanders on Tuesday – with Biden, Bloomberg, and Klobuchar all playing for third, at best. If New Hampshire was any indication, it should be a strong primary for Bernie.

3) How many of Buttigieg’s supporters will show up on Tuesday for Biden, Warren, and Sanders?

Now that Pete Buttigieg has suspended his campaign, the question is: who gets the former Mayor’s supporters? Most of the polling done in Super Tuesday states were executed while Pete was still in the race, so it’s possible that his voters will be the deciding factor – especially in Massachusetts.

Based on the crowds Sanders is drawing in Massachusetts and the incredible influx of cash he received in February from 2.2 million individual donors, Bernie looks poised to defeat Senator Warren in the state she represents in Congress. But, what if over half of Buttigieg’s supporters choose “Liz” on Tuesday instead of being spread amongst Bloomberg, Biden, Klobuchar, Warren, and Sanders?

Here are Buttigieg voters’ second choice candidates, according to a Quinnipiac poll:

  • Klobuchar 26%
  • Biden 19%
  • Sanders 11%
  • Bloomberg 9%

Alternatively, Morning Consult has predicted that Sanders, Biden, Bloomberg, and Warren will each receive a two-point bump from Mayo Pete’s resignation. Then, there’s a SurveyUSA poll taken on February 25-26, that shows Biden and Sanders both gaining 26% of Pete’s supporters, followed by Warren (18%) and Bloomberg (15%).

So, nobody knows exactly what to expect from Buttigieg’s voters. Keep in mind that all of this data was collected before Joe Biden’s win in South Carolina, and the resulting three days of media excitement to once again have a worthy challenger for Bernie.

Following this weekend’s news, I’m expecting most of Buttigieg’s former supporters in Massachusetts to throw their weight behind Elizabeth Warren and Sanders. Joe Biden’s impressive result in South Carolina was fueled by older black voters and the states deeply entrenched political machine.

A CNN Newsroom correspondent reported on Sunday that Buttigieg is dropping out because he refuses to be the reason Sanders gains an “insurmountable” delegate lead on Tuesday. That he’s willing to end his run early for the DNC and openly share that reasoning proves that the party-loyal moderates are coordinating to stop Bernie. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Joe Biden endorsement from the former Mayor of South Bend by Monday night.

Prediction and Best Value Bets

The Massachusetts primary is all about Elizabeth Warren versus Bernie Sanders. What was originally meant to be a duo of progressive allies has gradually deteriorated into a venomous rivalry. With a staff full of former Hillary Clinton employees, Warren has pivoted away from the policies that made her popular to instead build a campaign based on identity politics and cheap shots.

Now, she’s reversed her position on accepting super PAC money – receiving a timely injection of much-needed funds to keep the Senator’s floundering candidacy alive. Without nearly enough support to realistically compete for a majority of pledged delegates, Warren is content hanging around for no other reason than to draw some percentage of progressive voters away from Bernie, in an effort to force a contested convention.

(BetOnline) To Win Maine Primary

  • Matchup Odds
  • Bernie Sanders-400
  • Field (any other candidate)+250

In some polls, Elizabeth Warren is within five points of Sanders in her home state. If those numbers are accurate, Pete Buttigieg’s withdrawal could play a critical role in determining who wins Massachusetts. That’s why I’m extremely high on the BetOnline odds above.

At +250, I’m willing to stake a modest amount of cash on the field to take down Sanders.

I still expect Bernie to win, but at –400, there just isn’t any value in picking him; especially, with such significant variables left unknown after last weekend.

To Win Maine Primary
The Field
+250

(MyBookie) DNC to Have Brokered Convention:

  • Matchup Odds
  • Yes-165
  • No+125

I’ve been predicting a contested convention for months, and now things are developing as planned. FiveThirtyEight’s statistical models currently say there’s a 64% chance of the race reaching the Democratic National Convention without anyone winning a majority of the pledged delegates.

When I saw the large field of candidates and the DNC’s new “proportional allocation” rules, I knew a controversial finish to the nomination would be inevitable. The way things stand, the establishment Democrats just have to stop Bernie from acquiring 1,991.

If he fails to secure the nomination on the first convention ballot, every delegate becomes unpledged, and superdelegates – party insiders and lobbyists – are introduced into the mix. The DNC doesn’t have to worry about winning more states than Sanders; they just need one or two opponents to split the available delegates in as many contests as possible.

In the South, it will be Joe Biden and Michael Bloomberg’s job to limit the number of delegates Bernie acquires. In more liberal regions, the party elite is counting on Elizabeth Warren, Klobuchar, and Biden (to a lesser degree). That’s why it’s worth it for a Democratic super PAC to infuse Warren’s campaign with millions of dollars despite the candidate falling below the delegate threshold in three of the first four states.

At –165, betting “Yes” on a brokered convention is an absolute steal!
DNC Brokered Convention?
Yes
-165

(MyBookie) Democratic Nominee Special:

  • Matchup Odds
  • DNC Nom. Bernie Sanders-140
  • DNC Nom. Joe Biden+240
  • DNC Nom. “Field”+275

The DNC establishment, liberal media, and all of the remaining candidates are all openly working together to stop Bernie Sanders now. And that’s not including the legions of lobbyists representing health insurance, oil companies, banks, and the military-industrial complex all trying to take the 78-year-old Senator down.

I just don’t have enough faith in the system to truly believe that Bernie will be able to overcome it all. At the same time, it’s hard to imagine Joe Biden winning the nomination.

He may have bounced back in South Carolina, but the man is obviously not all there mentally anymore. The former VP frequently forgets where he is, gets caught in egregious lies, and is recorded during embarrassing confrontations with voters. If they try and prop him up as the frontrunner, the spotlight is sure to destroy Biden’s campaign eventually.

That’s why I love wagering on the field at +275. Elizabeth Warren may be underwhelming in the individual state contests, but once they get to the convention floor, all bets are off. There’s a reason someone is willingly paying tens of millions of dollars to keep a candidate with eight pledged delegates in the race.

Faced with Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, and Michael Bloomberg as the possible nominees on the convention floor, I strongly believe the DNC will recommend Elizabeth Warren as the compromise candidate. That’s precisely how the Democratic leadership thinks – which is why Donald Trump is about to win four more years in the White House.

DNC Nomination Special
The Field
+275

Super Tuesday States / Betting Previews:

  • American Samoa (Coming Soon)
  • Alabama
  • Arkansas
  • California
  • Colorado
  • Democrats Abroad (Coming Soon)
  • Maine
  • Minnesota (Coming Soon)
  • North Carolina (Coming Soon)
  • Oklahoma (Coming Soon)
  • Tennessee (Coming Soon)
  • Texas (Coming Soon)
  • Utah (Coming Soon)
  • Vermont (Coming Soon)
  • Virginia (Coming Soon)
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Will Cormier / Author

Will Cormier is a sports and political betting writer living in downtown Las Vegas, Nevada. When he’s not wandering around the streets of the Arts District aimlessly, a lifetime of pessimism and paranoia has made Will perfectly suited for handicapping politics. Cormier tries to analyze current events as objectively as possible – a strategy that often enrages loyalists on both the right and the left. When he’s not covering major upcoming elections, Will enjoys writing about basketball, football, and MMA from a betting perspective. He also loves dogs, ice cream sundaes, the movie “Stomp the Yard,” and long walks on the beach.