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The Byron Nelson Classic Betting Preview

Byron Nelson - Lakewood Country Club

Oh, Dallas…However much I thoroughly dislike your professional football team, I must remain cordial for the entirety of this betting preview. The Byron Nelson Classic has been held in Dallas since 1944 when the tournament’s namesake Byron Nelson won the inaugural competition at the Lakewood Country Club.

The host course has changed several times over the years, and 2018 will be the first year it is held at Trinity Forest Golf Club. The jury is still out to lunch regarding how this course will play.

The weather is forecasted to “cooperate” as there is little chance of rain, although fairways and greens will be playing hard and fast

The golfers that display the best touch around the greens will be the ones in contention this week. With hard and fast conditions, it levels the playing field between the short and long hitters.

Personally, I’m super excited about a new course. If golf purists can geek out over tiny adjustments made at courses like Augusta National, then a brand new course should be about as salivating as some chicken fried steak on a sweaty Texas Sunday. It’s not Ben’s Chili Bowl in DC, but I’m sure it’s savory and delicious. Hail to the Redskins. Okay, I digress.

Many of the top golfers on the PGA Tour have decided that soaking in the humid 100-degree temps on a course they’ve never seen before isn’t the best idea this week. If they considered the fact that after playing a grueling round, they could eat possibly the world’s most delicious gourmet grade school lunch, then, maybe they would have decided to make the trip down to Texas.

Picking an outright winner for this weekend will be even more difficult than any other week. If golfers don’t know the course very well, this can make for some tough bets.

That is why spreading your money out on several golfers with a variety of betting options seems like your best choice to make some money here. Bovada has provided us with some picks to win as well as some odds on a 1st round 3-ball betting format. This bet is simply which golfer out of 3 will finish the 1st round with a lower score, and all golfers must, of course, play the entire round.

BetOnline also has odds to win the tournament as well as 1st round odds for what golfer will finish the first round with the most strokes under par.

The most advantageous betting odds for you will likely be the top 10 finish lines. PGATOUR.COM has provided us a statistic of top ten finishes by golfers on the tour. It’s an excellent marker for consistency, as this should be the key to your golf betting success.

Let’s get into the odds and which athletes in this week’s field have the best value to make you some extra cash to make up for the big chunk of dough you ever so graciously spent on Mom this past weekend.

Odds to Win Byron Nelson Classic by BetOnline

  • Jordan Spieth: +500
  • Matt Kuchar: +1400
  • Sergio Garcia: +1400
  • Hideki Matsuyama: +1800
  • Jimmy Walker +2000
  • Billy Horschel: +2200
  • Adam Scott: +2200
  • Beau Hossler: +3300

Jordan Spieth is clearly the best golfer in the field on paper and I doubt he fails the eye test either. As you know from how the tour has played out this year, picking the winner each week is highly difficult. I still like a bit of cash on Spieth as he is ranked 3rd on the Tour this year in greens in regulation.

Matt Kuchar and Sergio Garcia both come in at (+1400). Matt has been more consistent than Sergio this year as the Spaniard has never been known for such. Sergio along with Billy Horschel, however, are ranked 39th and 40th out of over 200 golfers in driving accuracy. All three of these guys should play well, so I would add them to my spread.

Adam Scott narrowly missed his first top ten finish of the year last week at The Players Championship finishing tied for 11th. Adam ranks in the top 20 on the PGA Tour in several major statistical categories including Approach-The-Green, Greens in Regulation, and Tee-To-Green. When in good form, he is one that has the ability to contend every week.

Spread a small amount of your cash around these golfers to win, and save a bit of your wagering stash to put on some of the other more realistic betting lines.

1st Round 3-Ball Betting Odds by Bovada

So, out of each 3-man group, which golfer will finish round 1 with the lowest score?

  • Beau Hossler: +110
  • Colt Knost: +350
  • JB Holmes: +150

In the first threesome, I like Beau Hossler even with his even odds. JB Holmes has a first-round scoring average ranking of 136th while Colt Knost is all the way down the list at 199th on the Tour.

Conversely, Hossler ranks 16th with a first-round scoring average of 69.50 strokes. Also, to be noted, this is a home event for Hossler, as he is a member at Trinity Forest.

  • Billy Horschel: +150
  • Ryan Palmer: +175
  • Sergio Garcia: +140

Out of the next three (Horschel, Palmer, and Garcia), I like Billy Horschel here. He ranks 38th with a 1st round average of 70.2 strokes. Sergio, who almost has the same line as Horschel, is ranked an abysmal 172nd. Garcia is as talented as any golfer on the Tour, but he has struggled mightily in the first round.

Ryan Palmer’s 1st rounds have been weak as well only ranking 114th on the Tour thus far in 2018.

  • Hideki Matsuyama: +150
  • Matt Kuchar: +125
  • Satoshi Kodaira: +300

As for the last threesome I have listed here, Matt Kuchar’s name jumps off the paper at me. As good as Matsuyama can be at times, he hasn’t hit the ball well on Thursdays ranking near the very bottom on the tour ranking 198th on the Tour with an average first round score of 72.7.

Kuchar, on the other hand, ranks near the top at 7th in 1st round scoring averaging 69.1 strokes.

Please Note:

Kodaira has won a tournament this year, the RBC Heritage. Still, though, I have to go with Kuchar who has been lights out early in tournaments all year.

Odds to Finish in the Top Ten by BetOnline

  • Jordan Spieth: -225
  • Matt Kuchar: +135
  • Sergio Garcia: +135
  • Hideki Matsuyama: +165
  • Jimmy Walker: +160
  • Billy Horschel: +175
  • Marc Leishman: +220
  • Beau Hossler: +250
  • Charles Howard III: +350

Kuchar, Hossler, Garcia, Walker, and Howell III all have 3 top-tens to their name this year. They deserve a bit of your betting cash. Matsuyama and Horschel have 2 each and Jordan Spieth, not surprisingly has 4 to his name so far.

Kuchar, Spieth, and Howell III are all in the top 20 in finishing position, so I would lean towards putting your money on these guys as they have displayed consistency as well as excellent play in spurts.

The dark horse here is Marc Leishman. He has more top tens this year than anyone in the Byron Nelson field with 5! He has also shown consistency by averaging a finishing position of 37th which is good enough for 32nd on Tour.

In Conclusion

This week’s tournament down in Dallas, TX doesn’t have to be a PLAYERS Championship hangover. If it is for some, that’s no problem because greasy chicken-fried steaks are great for getting over a fun weekend.

Jordan Spieth leads the field with stars like Matt Kuchar and Sergio Garcia looking to enter the clubhouse on Sunday a champion.

This is the first time we will see PGA Tour golfers on this course, so anything can happen.

I am picking Kuchar, Hossler, and Horschel to win their 1st round 3-ball bets as all three are dangerous guys who consistently start tournaments very well.

For the “odds to win” bets, you have to put Spieth in there even though it doesn’t pay well. It is still plus money, and he is head and shoulders the best golfer in the field.

As for the top ten finishing odds, Marc Leishman is a good bet here as he has more top ten finishes than any other guy in the field.

I also really like Kuchar, Spieth, and Howell III to finish in the top ten here as well.

Get those bets in guys and let’s get ready for tee times Thursday.

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