|Candidate||2020 Presidential Election Odds|
I realize a lot of people aren’t going to like this, but; when it comes to playing the “game” of American politics, Donald Trump is a genius.
He understood, before anybody else, that presidential campaigns are an entertainment event. While his 2016 Republican primary opponents looked on in disbelief and whined about Donald’s lack of decorum, crude communication style, and refusal to follow established norms – or rules – Trump just kept climbing in the polls and knocking off one moderate Republican after another.
Against all the odds, he carried that same energy into the general election, where he went to war with Hillary Clinton and the mainstream media – which he labeled “fake news – and won again. Since Election Day 2016, nothing has ever been the same.
It also helps that for however talented Trump is at moving a specific portion of the American electorate, the Democrats are equally inept. The DNC has torn itself in half and sold its soul to the most regressive, ineffective wing of the party: the affluent, coastal “woke” elite.
Heading into the 2020 general election, Democrats and liberal media outlets will tell you that what they’ve spent the past three-and-a-half years in the vanguard of the “resistance.” I’m here to tell you, they’ve been playing right into President Trump’s hands the entire time.
Barring a monumental scandal or tragedy, Donald Trump is going to win reelection this year. In this article, I want to analyze why and share some of the best lines available at my favorite political betting sites.
Beat Bernie or Beat Trump? Choose One
The party primaries are set up in such a way that’s inherently advantageous for the Republicans. While right-wing voters may come from different socio-economic backgrounds, their ideologies are still relatively consistent; they want smaller government, lower taxes, and fewer regulations getting in the way of the free market. The GOP voter base also isn’t split into so many individual factions.
Democratic candidates need to build a coalition to win the party’s nomination. The DNC is a huge umbrella that often approaches voters on the basis of their identities. There’s the black voting bloc, Hispanic voters, LGBTQ rights advocates, feminists, wealthy suburbanites, college students (the youth vote in general), moderates, and leftists – among others.
Bernie Sanders’s diverse grassroots movement has the size, enthusiasm, and organization on the ground to, at least, challenge Trump in the states he flipped red in 2016. Bernie’s Congressional voting record, history of fighting for social security, and resistance to damaging economic legislation and trade deals will make him a tough matchup for the incumbent.
What he doesn’t have is institutional support from his party.
For the next several months, DNC loyalists will pretend that Joe Biden is the ideal “unity candidate,” a stabilizing presence to get us back to normalcy after four hectic years of Trump. They’ll say, “We just elected a radical fringe president, the last thing the country needs is another.”
Instead of backing the only real progressive coalition of voters, the DNC is pulling out all the stops to derail Sanders. Since coordinating their pre-Super Tuesday consolidation of moderate support, it’s looking like their plan will be successful.
Political Betting Tip:
One sign of a likely reelection of a President is the party out of power obsesses over “who can beat the incumbent.” Tends to lead to “political” type choices: see Mondale 84, Dole 96, Kerry 04, Romney 12. They all make lousy candidates.
Don’t fall for it when they say Biden is the candidate to beat Trump; Joe’s impressive delegate haul is little more than an illusion.
The backbone of his support is coming from older black Democrats in southern states. While these voters are invaluable contributors when it comes to winning a primary, and the core of Biden’s “firewall,” states like South Carolina has remained red for decades. None of those votes will count under the electoral college rules.
The affluent liberal core of the party knows they’re throwing away their one chance to remove the President from office – you know, that goal they’ve been hysterically pursuing since November 2015?
Democrats can either get rid of Bernie Sanders or Donald Trump this election year – not both. It appears they’ve made up their minds.
A Sower of Seeds of Discord
Progressives see Trump’s election as a symptom of larger systemic issues and often hold deeper resentments towards DNC moderates for putting class interests ahead of greater equality. It doesn’t help that the party has already been caught rigging a primary to prevent a Bernie Sanders nomination, something that’s contributed to voter disenfranchisement since 2016.
Trump makes sure to chime in on this conflict regularly, tweeting messages of support for Bernie and pointing out the many biases and hypocrisies present amongst the Democratic establishment. In 2016, roughly 20% of Sanders’s supporters voted either for Trump or a third-party after being slighted by Hillary and the DNC. The incumbent knows exactly what he’s doing – he doesn’t really care about Bernie – but the strategy is still superb.
Wealthy liberal moderates, free of the burden that economic anxieties represent to many Sanders’s supporters, have an entirely different set of priorities. Without having to fret over student loan payments, stagnant wages, or the possibility of a single accident or illness resulting in total financial ruin, these “limousine liberals” can afford to make “Anti-Trump” their central voting issue. Establishment Democrats are more hung up on the President’s rude comments, lack of civility, and perceived corruption.
The two sides clearly don’t have similar amounts of skin in the game.
Why would the affluent moderates and older voters who already enjoy the benefits of socialized medicine sign up to pay more taxes and help lift the struggling working-class (beyond the fact that they’re often pretending to be holier than thou)? By actively sabotaging Bernie’s campaign at every stage of the race, prominent Democrats are admitting they’d rather take four more years of Trump over significantly challenging the status quo.
From now until the convention in July, the President will just keep tweeting in support of Bernie, who he knows will never be allowed to be the Democratic nominee. When the establishment leaders eventually show their hand and select Joe Biden, legions of progressives will abandon the party – many of whom will turn to Donald Trump, the one guy with the ability to get under their rich, condescending enemies’ skin.
2016 All Over Again — But Worse!
The way you know the Democrats would rather lose with one their own than let someone like Bernie Sanders – who is considered an “outsider” by the party elite, like Hillary Clinton – is the fact that they’re even considering handing the nomination to Joe Biden.
Who Will Win Popular Vote?
- Matchup Odds
- Donald Trump+145
- The Field (Any Other)-190
For nearly four years, Democratic pundits and strategists have blamed Hillary’s loss on everything other than what really happened.
First, it was hordes of racist, sexist white people from rural areas flooding the polls in desperate need of another Caucasian man in the Oval Office after enduring eight years of Obama. On election night 2016, CNN correspondent Van Jones referred to this make-believe event as a “white-lash.”
Get it? White backlash…
Stage two picked up once those excuses got old. That’s when America decided to roll back the clock and revisit the Cold War sentiments of the USSR days. Communism may have long since collapsed, but, seemingly overnight, there were Russian spies and evidence of foreign interference hidden under every rock. After over three years of never-ending investigations and baseless allegations, nothing substantial has ever stuck. Nevertheless, Democratic establishment figures and GOP “Never Trumpers” are still weaponizing the neo-McCarthyistic playbook.
Now, the Democrats are residing in the third stage of denial, in which it’s Bernie Sanders who takes the brunt of the blame. Clinton still hates his guts for challenging her in the 2016 primary and routinely attacks him in interviews. This sentiment is prevalent within liberal think-tanks, special interest groups, and the DNC itself — and inspires the establishment’s intense disdain for Bernie still.
The usual gripes are that he didn’t drop out early enough or campaign enthusiastically enough. Of course, Bernie appeared at over 40 rallies for the former First Lady. When she suspended her campaign and endorsed Barack Obama in 2008, you know how many events she did for him? Nine.
And while Sen. Sanders may have remained in the race a little longer than Secretary Clinton would have liked, at least he didn’t decide to say, “We all remember Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June in California.”
To recap: Hillary Clinton refused to end her campaign in 2008 after Obama had already built an insurmountable delegate lead because there was still time for the frontrunner to be assassinated potentially.
Amazingly, the leadership of the Democratic Party managed to find a remarkably similar – yet, still somehow worse – candidate to run against Trump in 2020. Career-wise, Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton are essentially the same person. The DNC is trying to swap one corrupt conservative corporatist with apparent health issues and a history of being on the wrong side of important issues for another one!
The Sundown Kid
Wait! — That’s not all; to make things even better, the 2020 model has clearly lost his marbles – a fact that becomes more impossible to ignore by the day. Trump’s already keyed in on the fact that “Uncle Joe” is demonstrating signs of dementia or senility, and we now have long highlight videos of the former VP’s numerous campaign trail mixups!
What’s remarkable is his ability to maintain a decent following in the face of obvious cognitive decline – whether it’s senility, dementia, or something else. The poor guy wears the same wide-eyed empty stare, usually reserved for retired football players and professional wrestlers.
It’s a look of total vulnerability and confusion, and it’s making it hard to fully appreciate the hilarity. Nevertheless, those states are all Republican strongholds, so they won’t be able to carry him past the primaries.
Donald Trump destroyed Hillary on foreign relations and trade – astutely running to her left on those issues with a populist agenda aimed at reversing NAFTA and the TPP along with promises to bring manufacturing back to America.
I don’t know how many of those factories and plants moved back to the Midwest, but I know who’s been a staunch supporter of every piece of legislation responsible for moving jobs overseas, widening wealth inequality, and destroying the middle class: Joseph Biden.
Just wait until the next phase of the Burisma scandal breaks. It’ll be Hillary’s emails all over again. At least poor Joe won’t know what’s going on enough for it to stress him out too much.
Trump’s GOP Won the Working Class
It may be true that Trump is the recipient of a set of especially advantageous circumstances, but it can’t be ignored how brilliantly he’s played the cards he’s been dealt since announcing his candidacy. His talent for understanding messaging and how to fight deeply entrenched establishment institutions is all the more apparent in contrast to Bernie’s struggles in this election cycle.
Trump knew not to let his enemies in the media and his own party dictate the talking points, and he never validated their criticisms in any way. Bernie doesn’t even seem to know these people are his enemy a lot of the time.
Bad faith actors in the DNC and television punditry spent months framing the Senator’s supporters as uniquely aggressive and insulting, turning his greatest strength into a liability, and he let them.
By agreeing to condemn any follower of his being inappropriate towards the campaign’s detractors, he gave the nonsensical smear life. Trump knew to cut that stuff off at the inception – just say “fake news” and pay it no mind, and they can’t make those attacks stick.
Sanders has also gone way too easy on his opponents and the Democratic Party. Do you know why the Republicans weren’t able to screw Donald around like this? He told them during the very first primary debate that if they tried playing games with him, he couldn’t rule out a third-party candidacy down the road.
If Elizabeth Warren is the DNC’s version of Jeb Bush, President Trump would have never allowed her to passive-aggressively poison the well as she did to Bernie – leaking BS stories about Bernie being a misogynist, then giving noncommittal half-answers when asked about them in public. Donald knew to confront that stuff head-on, and Jeb gradually wilted under the pressure.
Trump Election Special (MyBookie)
- To Lose Electoral College & Popular Vote (+175)
- To Win Electoral College, Lose Popular Vote (+150)
- To Win Electoral College & Popular Vote (+200)
- To Lose Electoral College, Win Popular Vote (+1100)
On the internet, college campuses, and affluent areas like Silicon Valley and Manhattan, obsessing over intersectionality and pronouns may be a prerequisite when choosing a candidate, but most of the working-class are terrified by “woke” culture.
By now, the quiet majority has noticed the sadistic pleasure the loudest political correctness enforcers seem to gain from getting average Americans fired from their jobs and “canceled” or banned from social media platforms. The pundits and activists obsessed with identity sunk Elizabeth Warren’s campaign and badly damaged Bernie’s.
Now, it’s too late – a lot of those rural voters who switched from Bernie to Trump in 2016 have stayed with the President ever since. They were looking for an outsider candidate, and Donald has never given an inch in that regard.
This situation reminds me of Jeremy Corbyn’s devastating general election defeat in the UK. In an attempt to be all-inclusive, the Labour Party leader wouldn’t commit to Brexit, which the working-classes wanted. The United States equivalent is immigration. For most of Bernie’s career, he’s been against open borders because they undercut American workers’ wages. But in an effort to not be seen as racist, he went along with that vocal minority that’s never happy anyway.
I’d argue the same goes for gun control and the Green New Deal. People want healthcare and a fairer system that benefits regular people, not just the 1%. They don’t want a thousand new rules and regulations dictating their lives.
This year’s election will be a landslide victory for Trump. These record-breaking crowds he’s attracting are no fluke, and they’ll only get larger once the DNC chooses a nominee. I’m guessing; since 2016, the President has already stolen a substantial chunk of former Sanders voters who, while they want healthcare and higher pay, aren’t willing to kowtow to snobby coastal elites, give up their guns, or completely open the southern border to get them.
There’s still a massive silent majority that remembers when those opinions weren’t considered racist or controversial. Donald Trump, for as out of place as he seems in the White House at times, seems to get that, which is why I’m picking the incumbent to win both the electoral college and popular vote this year. As the Democratic Party crumbles, Donald Trump’s position has never been more secure.