The Five Best NFL Over/Unders For Week 16

NFL Betting Week 16

  • Cardinals Will be the ultimate Grinch as host to the Colts
  • Panthers could be in the giving mood when Tampa Bay visits
  • Bengals are no longer the NFL’s version of Santa Claus
  • Chiefs defense is the star right now as Steelers will find out
  • Looks like a Reindeer race between Las Vegas and Denver

Week 16 of the NFL is here and we are here as always to bring you those great predictions and picks! Check out our sportsbooks reviews page to find out all about the best NFL betting sites in 2021.

Indianapolis Colts (8-6) at Arizona Cardinals (10-4)

  • Place: State Farm Stadium, Glendale Arizona
  • Time: 5:15 PST, 7:15 CST, 8:15 EST
  • TV: NFL Network

The Series:

Arizona has a 9-8 lead in the series as the Cardinals have won the last two games in 2017 and 2013. The two teams went ten years without playing each other from 1996-2006. One point separates the two teams as the Colts have 345 and the Cardinals have 344 through the 17 meetings. Indianapolis has won five of its last six games while the Cardinals are 2-3 in their last five.

Last Time Out:

Indianapolis cooled off red hot New England in jumping to a 20-0 lead after three quarters and held off a New England rally as the Colts won, 27-17, on Saturday night. Jonathan Taylor carried Indianapolis as he rushed 26 times for 170 yards and a touchdown as the moribund passing game behind Carson Wentz only yielded 57 yards. The Colts’ defense baited rookie Mac Jones into two interceptions while New England was penalized eight times for 50 yards.

The Cardinals lost an embarrassing 30-12 decision in Detroit as Kyler Murray struggled all afternoon in completing 23 of 41 yards for 257 yards and a 72.9 quarterback rating with a TD pass and a pick. The Lions broke on top of Arizona, 17-0, at halftime and the Cardinals never responded. Not having DeAndre Hopkins for the rest of the season is a huge issue in the locker room and of course on offense.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Indianapolis Colts +1 (-110) O 49 (-110)
Arizona Cardinals -1 (-110) U 49 (-110)

When the Colts Have the Ball:

Indianapolis Colts LogoThe Colts will waste little time in establishing Jonathan Taylor against what has become a stout Cardinals’ runs defense that has only given up 112 yards per game. Indianapolis has seen Taylor rush for 108.4 yards per game with 17 touchdowns on the ground. Taylor has six 100-yard games in his last seven.

Including a season-high 185 yards and four TDs in the Colts’ 41-15 win over Buffalo on Nov. 21. He has odds to win the NFL MVP at (+2000) while posting (-110) odds to win the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year.

When the Cardinals Have the Ball:

Arizona Cardinals LogA humbling defeat at the hands of the lowly Detroit Lions should refocus the Arizona Cardinals and get them in a position to finish out strong and win the NFC West. The Cardinals not only were missing DeAndre Hopkins (knee) on offense but running back James Connor only had eight carries for 39 yards as he is recovering from an ankle injury.

Taking Hopkins out of this offense leaves Murray with wide receiver Christian Kirk (62-812-5), tight end Zach Ertz (34-395-3), and A.J. Green (46-718-3), which is a solid trio. The Colts give up 234.1 yards per game (15th/NFL).

Why Bet OVER 50:
Arizona playing at home should be reinvigorated after the loss to the Lions and Murray and his weaponry will be more than likely ready to operate efficiently and in sync once again. The Cardinal should be angry and embarrassed and will take that out on a Colts’ offense that has no threat outside of Jonathan Taylor. Meanwhile, the Colts prove they can put points on the board as well with Taylor, who can score from anywhere on the field as he put away the Patriots with a 67-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter on Saturday night. The Cardinals will get after the Colts early in a rebound from last week with a 34-20 win.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-4) at Carolina Panthers (5-9)

  • Place: Bank of American Stadium, Charlotte, NC
  • Time: 1:00 PST, 3:00 CST, 4:00 EST
  • TV: Fox

The Series:

Tampa Bay has won four of the last five games in this series while the Panthers lead the overall matchups, 24-17. This is the first meeting of the season between the two NFC South foes. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is in a 4-way tie for second in the NFC.

Last Time Out:

The Buccaneers dropped a 9-0 decision to the New Orleans Saints on Sunday night as the Saints defense dictated the game from the beginning in holding the Buccaneers offense to 301 total yards and forcing two turnovers. The biggest was late in the third quarter, QB Tom Brady scrambled up the middle and had picked up a first down just before Cameron Jordan hit him from behind as he jarred the ball loose and Marshawn Lattimore recovered at the Saints 13-yard line.

Buffalo took a 14-0 lead early in the first quarter and never looked back as they defeated the Panthers, 31-14, in Buffalo. Cam Newton passed for 156 yards and ran for a touchdown as the Panthers have lost four in a row and five out of the last six.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10 (-110) -480 O 44½ (-110)
Carolina Panthers +10 (-110) +360 U 44½ (-110)

When the Buccaneers Have the Ball:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers LogoAs the Buccaneers were beaten up by the Saints as well last week, wide receiver Chris Godwin is out for the season while Leonard Fournette is shelved at least until the playoffs. Mike Evans is day-to-day. Quarterback Tom Brady needs some of his backups in the skill positions to step up.

Ronald Jones ran the ball well last week as he ran for 63 yards on eight carries and has to be a factor as the starting running back. Tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate need to bring their games even further. Gronkowski had only two receptions and was targeted 11 times vs. the Saints.

When the Panthers Have the Ball:

Carolina Panthers LogoThe Panthers’ offense is 27th in the NFL with only 308.1 yards per game. Carolina will have to be able to generate a solid passing attack behind Newton to have a chance in this game as the Buccaneers continue to allow only 89.0 yards per game (3rd/NFL). Despite all of the offense upheaval, wide receiver DJ Moore has been solid with 986 yards and 78 receptions.

Newton continues to set records as he became the first quarterback in the history of the league to rush for a touchdown in his first five games of the season.

Why Bet UNDER 44:
The Buccaneers will be super motivated after the embarrassment of last week’s loss to the Saints. They have the easiest road to finish at least in second in the NFC with two against the Panthers with the Jets in between. Carolina’s offense is a struggling entity so all the Panthers have to do is control the line of scrimmage and the Panthers will have trouble scoring. Missing components on offense will keep the Bucs from scoring like normal. Tampa Bay’s defense, even with its injury-riddled secondary will lock this down for a 27-10 victory.


Baltimore Ravens (8-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-6)

  • Place: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
  • Time: 1:00 PST, 3:00 CST, 4:00 EST
  • TV: CBS

The Series:

Ravens have a 27-24 lead in the overall series while they have won five of the last six games in the series. Baltimore has lost three in a row while Cincinnati is 3-2 over its last five games. The Bengals flexed mightily in the earlier meeting this season as they blew away the Ravens, 41-17, in Baltimore on Oct. 24. Joe Burrow threw for 418 yards and J’Marr Chase had eight catches for 201 yards and a touchdown. Burrow found C.J. Uzomah with a pair of TD passes in the win.

Last Time Out:

Baltimore trailed the Packers, 31-17, in the fourth quarter before backup quarterback Tyler Huntley engineered a pair of late touchdown drives as he scored from three and eight yards out with 42 seconds remaining. Then, coach John Harbaugh elected to go for two, and Huntley’s two-point conversion attempt to Mark Andrews was batted down as the Packers escaped, 31-30.

Cincinnati broke a two-game losing streak as Joe Burrow hit Tyler Boyd on a 56-yard touchdown pass late in the third quarter and it was the difference in the 15-10 Bengals win. In what turned into a defensive game, the Bengals held Denver to 292 yards on 71 plays which were 20 more than the Bengals’ 52 plays.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Baltimore Ravens +3 (-115) +130 O 45 (-110)
Cincinnati Bengals -3 (-105) -150 U 45 (-110)

When the Ravens Have the Ball:

Baltimore Ravens LogoThe Ravens hope Lamar Jackson is back from his sprained ankle as Tyler Huntley acquitted himself well last week as all but for that burned two-point conversion, Huntley outperformed Aaron Rodgers as he threw for 215 yards and ran for 73. The Bengals only allow 95.9 yards rushing (4th/NFL).

So the neutralization on that Ravens running game could be a major staple in the game. Mark Andrews at tight end will once again be Huntley’s best friend after he caught 10 balls for 136 yards and two TDs.

When the Bengals Have the Ball:

Bengals LogoThe Bengals have learned that Joe Burrow doesn’t have to throw for 350 yards every week for him to be a threat. Burrow is resourceful and can turn into whatever the Bengals need. He only threw for 157 in the win over Denver after throwing for 348 and 300 in the two preceding losses to the 49ers and Chargers.

The Bengals need Kenny Mixon to be a fixture in the running game, but he has only 57.6 yards rushing on average in his last three games.

Why Bet OVER 44.5:
Baltimore is No. 1 in the NFL against the run (86.2 ypg), so we have two of the top four defenses against the run in this game. The Ravens meanwhile are third in the NFL in rushing with 144.7 yards per game. The Bengals held Baltimore to 115 yards rushing in the earlier win as they were able to turn this into a passing show, which favors the Bengals. This game will feature more scoring as Baltimore will proliferate enough of a running game to take this to the fourth quarter where the Bengals grade the Dub and take control of the AFC North.


Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6-1) at Kansas Chiefs (10-4)

  • Place: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.
  • Time: 1:25 PST, 3:25 CST, 4:25 EST
  • TV: CBS

The Series:

Pittsburgh is 22-11 lifetime vs. the Kansas City Chiefs and the Steelers have won two of their last three games in the series. The Steelers know a win could put them on the cusp of the seventh seed in the AFC playoff race as different scenarios included losses by teams above them. A win would allow Kansas City at least to maintain the two-game lead and put the Chiefs in a position to claim their sixth consecutive AFC championship next week. The Chiefs won the last meeting, 42-37, in 2018.

Last Time Out:

Chris Boswell kicked four field goals as the Steelers stayed alive in the playoff chase with a 19-13 win over the Derrick Henry-less Tennessee Titans. The defense held Tennessee to 318 total yards as Ryan Tannehill was ineffective once again without Henry as the focal point of the Titans’ offense. He threw for only 153 yards and no touchdowns.

Kansas City fought an uphill battle for most of the evening in its 34-28 overtime win over the LA Chargers. Tight end Travis Kelce caught a 7-yard touchdown pass from Patrick Mahomes to tie the game at 28-28 with 1:16 to play. The Chiefs won the coin toss in overtime and Mahomes hit Helce with a 34-yard TD pass on the first drive to complete a thrilling 34-28 win over the Chargers.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Pittsburgh Steelers +7 (+105) O 45 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs -7 (-125) U 45 (-110)

When the Steelers Have the Ball:

Pittsburgh Steelers LogoKansas City’s defense against the run has been a key spur to this seven-game winning streak as it has held four of the seven opponents to below 100 yards. In addition, the Pittsburgh Steeler’s defense has accrued 18 turnovers and has a (+10) turnover margin in those seven games.

Pittsburgh’s rushing game has been non-existent all season as it still only yields 84.6 yards per game (31st/NFL). The running attack has averaged only 66.4 yards per game in the last five. Beating the Chiefs’ pass defense with Roethlisberger, who averages only 248 yards per game and has a QB rating of 91.4 is less than likely.

When the Chiefs Have the Ball:

Kansas City Chiefs LogoWe talked about Joe Burrow managing games and Patrick Mahomes has done the same thing inside of the Chiefs offense as he doesn’t have to sling the football for 350-400 yards this season for Kansas City to pick up wins. He had 410 yards through the air last week as he has two 400-plus yards games in the last five, but he also threw for 178 and 126 in wins over Denver and Dallas. Tyreek Hill is in COVID-19 protocols, so Travis Kelce and Mercole Hardman will look for the football vs. the Steelers, who give up 223 yards through the air (11th/NFL). It’s been easy to run on Pittsburgh for almost anyone all season as the Steelers have given up 143.9 yards per game on the ground (31st/NFL), so Darrell Williams and Clyde Edwards-Helaire should have solid afternoons for KC.

Why Bet UNDER 44:
It’s hard to see many points on the board in this game for Pittsburgh unless the Chiefs turn the ball over in Steelers’ territory and give them short fields. Kansas City will find the run game early and shorten the clock, which in turn minimizes points and gives the Chiefs a 27-12 win.


Denver Broncos (7-7) at Las Vegas Raiders (7-7)

  • Place: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nev.
  • Time: 1:25 PST, 3:25 CST, 4:25 EST
  • TV: CBS

The Series:

The Raiders still have solid control of this matchup between old AFL rivals as they lead it, 67-53-2, and have won the last three in the series and five out of the last six. The winner of this game is going to be in a position to potentially snag that seventh seed in the AFC with two games remaining. The Raiders won, 34-24, in Week 6 behind 341 yards and a pair of touchdown passes in Week 6.

Last Time Out:

Las Vegas used a Daniel Carlson walk-off field goal to shade the COVID-19 despondent Cleveland Browns, 16-14, on Monday afternoon in Cleveland. Derek Carr drove the Raiders into Cleveland territory late in the game before Carlson seemingly made the game-winner, but the officials gave the Browns a time out as they were allowed to ice Carlson. The Auburn Tiger stood up once again and made the 48-yard field goal to keep the Silver & Black in the middle of the playoffs race.

Denver dropped a key 15-10 loss to the Bengals at Mile High Stadium in a game that saw Teddy Bridgewater carted off on a stretcher in the third quarter. Backup Drew Lock came on and threw a 25-yard touchdown pass to Tim Patrick with 1:15 left in the third quarter. However, two plays later, it was Joe Burrow and the Bengals on the attack as he threw a 58-yard pass to Ja’Marr Chase with 30 seconds remaining in the third as this proved to be the game-winner. Lock once again proved why he’s a backup as he fumbled on the Bengals’ nine-yard line on the next drive before sending Denver to a punt and a turnover on downs on their next two drives.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Denver Broncos PK (-110) O 41½ (-110)
Las Vegas Raiders PK (-110) U 41½ (-110)

When the Raiders Have the Ball:

Las Vegas Raiders LogoReceivers like tight end Foster Moreau and WR Zay Jones stepped up in the passing game for the Raiders last week. Moreau set career highs of seven catches and 65 yards last week while Jones had a season-high six catches for 67 yards. He has five or more catches in three of his last four games.

The Raiders passing game still is capturing 283.7 yards per game (3rd/NFL) and it has a possession receiver, not a speed receiver, in Hunter Renfrow, leading in yardage at 909 yards. Jones and Bryan Edwards are the speed guys at wideout and Edwards needs to be assertive once again in making plays in the passing game. The Broncos are sixth in the league against the pass (212.7 ypg), so the Raiders will also need the balance Josh Jacobs brings at running back.  He had 94 yards from scrimmage against Cleveland and is looking for his fifth game in a row with 70 or more yards from scrimmage.

When the Broncos Have the Ball:

Denver Broncos LogoWith Drew Lock more than likely the starting QB here, the under looks more and more enticing. The pass offense only averages 217.4 per game (18th/NFL), so Denver is going to going to gave to rely on the rushing attack that posts 123.8 yards per game to try to pull this out.

Las Vegas’ run defense is 24th in the NFL as it allows 122.7 yards per outing. Running back Javonte Williams is looking for his third in a row against an AFC West foe with 110 scrimmage yards while Melvin Gordon has 900 scrimmage yards for the sixth straight season.

Why Bet OVER 41.5:
With the game in Las Vegas, the Raiders will call this game more wide-open so the potential for Raiders skill people to make plays is greater. Denver maybe is down by a 2-3 score margin late and the Raiders will allow a drive by the Broncos to eat up time which could even equate to a back door cover. The number is low and is probably built on Lock being at QB for Denver and the fact that the Raiders have only averaged 13.3 points per game in their last three. Keep in mind, they did beat Denver, 34-24, in Denver.


Sub Categories:
Kenneth Cross / Author

Kenneth Cross is a new entry to The Sports Geek staff as he has 25 years of experience in print, broadcast, and internet sports journalism. Cross is a lover of all sports, but college basketball is his passion. He estimates that he has seen around 1,500 college basketball games - live and in-person - and hopes that grows this season. If you listen to Radio, you have likely heard him on Sundays covering the Carolina Panthers for some 20 years. Now in Tampa Bay, he works as a national radio correspondent.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.