Top 5 Value Bets To Win NCAA Men’s Basketball Conference Titles

Yesterday we took a look at 5 longshots that could win their conference tournaments, and today we are going to switch gears and focus on the top 5 value bets when it comes to winning conference tournaments. Everyone loves the longshot home run bets, but at the end of the day, there is a reason that those bets payout huge odds, and that is because they are hard to hit!

Now, in theory, those bets can be just as high of value as these bets, but when you are taking the value plays, you are looking for high value, as well as lower variance. The bets we are going to look at today are going to deliver both, which makes them bets you are going to want to make. With that, let’s jump right into it by heading to the Big 10, to check in on the Wisconsin Badgers.

Wisconsin Badgers– BIG 10 (+900)

Yesterday I noted that the Big 10 was the most wide-open conference in the nation as there are 7 teams that still have at least some shot at taking home the league title, and with the conference so up for grabs, I am shocked at the price on some of these teams. When it comes down to which team will actually win the title, I like the Badgers of Wisconsin. The Badgers are a half of a game back of 1st place Purdue, tied in the loss column, meaning that they control their own destiny. If the Badgers win out, they will get at least a share of the Big 10 title.

The Kohl Center in Madison has always been one of the toughest places in the nation for opposing teams to win, which is a great sign for Wisconsin, as the Badgers play 3 of their last 5 games at home. Those 3 home games come against Michigan, Purdue, and Nebraska, with the road games coming at Minnesota and Rutgers.

No team wants to play Rutgers right now, as the Scarlet Knights are on fire, having knocked off 4 consecutive ranked teams, so the trip to New Jersey will be a tough one, but if the Badgers are able to win in the RAC, they will host Purdue on March 1st with the Big 10 title on the line. I doubt Wisconsin is going to have too much trouble in their next couple of games with a home game against an inconsistent Michigan team and a road trip to Minnesota, which sets them up for those games against Rutgers and Purdue.

I would think that the Badgers would be small underdogs in both of those games, so we are going to need them to step up in a big way to get us paid, but the jumbo +900 price more than makes up for those tough games. Trying to predict exactly how this race will finish would be an exercise in futility as there has been so much parity in what I see as the deepest league in the country, so I won’t go too deep into speculating how the rest of it will shake out. But what I do know is that there is a log jam at the top of the Big 10, and Wisconsin has as good of a shot to win it as anybody else does, and I love a play on them at a price like this!

Notre Dame Fighting Irish– ACC (+370)

It has been a down year for the ACC, and everyone is taking their shots at the league right now, as the once-mighty conference just hasn’t performance very well. That being said, the people out there pretending like the ACC doesn’t have talent are kidding themselves, as this league still has some quality teams. The Fighting Irish of Notre Dame are one of those teams, and despite being utterly ignored by the mainstream media, Notre Dame is currently sitting in 1st place in the ACC, tied with the Duke Blue Devils.

There isn’t a team in the ACC that is as hot as Notre Dame is right now, not even Duke, as the Irish have won 9 of their last 10 games, and they are surging towards a league title. The biggest hurdle for Notre Dame will be their next game, as they have to play on the road against Wake Forrest. The Demon Deacons came out of nowhere this year to win 20 games despite being picked to finish last in the preseason, and winning in Winston-Salem is not going to be easy.

After that game, the Irish have a fairly easy path to running the table, which would ensure them at least a share of the ACC title. None of Notre Dame’s final 4 games of the regular season come against teams ranked inside the top-100 nationally, and 3 of them come at home, where they are 11-1 on the year. Mike Brey’s boys have had some close calls in the last couple of weeks, including barely sneaking past a bad Boston College team in overtime in their last game, but if they can keep winning, they can’t be denied in the ACC.

While we won’t need Duke to lose a game to cash this ticket, if the Blue Devils do lose a game, it would put us in an even better position, as we will have some nice cushion and room for error down the stretch. The Dukies will be favored in each of their remaining games, but their next game comes at home to a Florida State team that beat them earlier this season, and then they head to Charlotteville to play Virginia, who they already lost to at home a couple of weeks back. Duke then finishes up their regular season against North Carolina, and despite destroying the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill in their 1st meeting of the season, you can generally throw the records out in that matchup up blue blood rivals.

This is just a bad line. If I had to pick exactly how the season ends up in the ACC, I would expect both Notre Dame and Duke to run the table and share the ACC regular season title. The fact that I can get Notre Dame at nearly 4-1 is borderline absurd. Is Duke a better team than Notre Dame? Absolutely. But this bet doesn’t pay out on which team is better, it pays out on who wins the ACC title, and right now, I just don’t see how that isn’t Notre Dame.

Kansas Jayhawks– BIG 12 (-295)

Winning the Big 12 title has been a birthright for Kansas fans for a generation, and it is increasingly looking like the Jayhawks are going to take home yet another Big 12 title this year, as they have opened up a full 2-game lead over both Baylor and Texas Tech at the top of the Big 12 standings. When I look at what is left on the Jayhawks schedule, I am not sure I can find 2 losses, and if Kansas doesn’t lose at least twice, the rest of the league can’t catch them.

Kansas has 6 games left to play on the year. They play TCU twice, as well as West Virginia and Kansas State. None of those teams are bad, but they are all firmly on the bubble right now, and when it comes to winning games to close out a Big 12 title, no team is better at it than Kansas, and I just don’t think they are going to lose to any bubble teams with the league title hanging in the balance. The other 2 games left on the Jayhawk’s schedule are at Baylor and home against Texas, and while both of those games are certainly difficult, I am going to tell you why Kansas is going to win both contests.

The Jayhawks caught a break when Baylor superstar Tchamwa Tchatchoua went down with what appears to be a season-ending injury last week. Winning in Waco is never an easy task, but the Bears are down one of their best players, and without him, they lost to Texas Tech in their last game by double digits. That game is no gimme, but Kansas will win it.

The home game against Texas is another tough game, and the Longhorns did beat the Jayhawks in Austin already this year, but Kansas is 12-1 at home this season, and there is no way they are losing in Lawrence in the final game of the season if a win means they take home the Big 12 title. In reality, they can very likely lose 2 of these games and still win the outright title, and even going 3-3 would probably be enough to get them a share of the championship, making a play on Kansas one that has very little risk of losing.

It doesn’t pay very well, but as the Jayhawks continue to win and pull away from the rest of the pack, the odds are only going to drop even further. The only team that has any realistic shot of catching them is Texas Tech, and as great as the Red Raiders have been this year, they still have 3 true road games left on their schedule. All 6 of the Red Raider’s losses this year have come away from Lubbock, which tells me that they aren’t going to win all 3 of those games, which all but eliminates them from contention. Pick the low-hanging fruit and lock in your action on the Jayhawks now.

Villanova Wildcats – Big East (-200)

When the Villanova Wildcats went into Providence and beat the Friars last week, they also won the Big East title. Technically, the Wildcats don’t have the title mathematically locked down, but they trail the Friars by just a game and still get to host them later this year. If the Friars weren’t up to beating the Wildcats at home, they aren’t going to beat them on the road either. And in reality, nothing else matters when it comes to which team is winning the Big East title, as no other team has much of a shot.

That is because if Villanova wins against PC in the final game of the regular season for the Friars, that will ensure that the Wildcats get a least a tie for the league title, which is more than enough to cash our bet. That is assuming that both teams win out, which is fairly likely, as the Wildcats will be favored in every game that they play the rest of the way out, and Providence has played far too well to expect them to stumble in the next 2 weeks, with a chance to win their first-ever Big East title.

Similar to our play on Kansas, these odds aren’t very sexy, but they are only going to get worse from here. It feels a little strange to lay wood on a favorite when they are technically in 2nd place, but I can see why the books have priced it this way, and to be honest, I am a little surprised these odds aren’t even worse. Once in a while, you have to take the path of least resistance and pick up some free cash. In the Big East, that means taking Villanova.

Dayton Flyers – A-10 (+380)

Along with the Big 10, the A-10 is wide open and up for grabs. Davidson should have run away with the league title, but they fell apart and lost to Rhode Island, and now several teams have a shot at winning the league. If you are a believer in Kenpom, and you should be if you bet college hoops, the Dayton Flyers are the top team in the A-10, as they are the highest-ranked team in the conference.

The Flyers are tied with VCU for 2nd place in the conference, a game back of Davidson, but I expect Dayton to catch Davidson by the end of the year, and I love a play on the Flyers at nearly 4-1. The next 3 games for the Flyers are all soft matchups with games against St. Joe’s, UMASS, and La Salle. They play at Richmond in a game that is going to be a major test, but the Flyers have played well on the road this year, so I like their chances in that one.

The final game of the season for Dayton is a home game against, you guessed it, Davidson, where if the Flyers win, they could either win a share of the A-10 title or potentially win it outright. The Wildcats are a strong team, but after watching them blow it against Rhode Island, against a Ram’s team that was in free fall, has me not trusting them. They have a game against Saint Louis that is going to be a potential loss, and I don’t think they are going to be able to win at Davidson.

No matter how many times I look at the rest of the A-10’s schedule, I see Dayton sneaking their way up the standings and finishing in 1st place. The Flyers are playing their best basketball of the season at just the right time with 6 wins on their last 7 games and 10 in their last 12, and with Davidson showing that they might not be up for the pressure they are going to face to win this league title, the play is on the Flyers.

Wrap Up

And there you have it, folks, my picks for the top 5 value bets to win their conference titles this season. The time for action is now on these plays, as even one win or loss is certain to change the odds and potentially change the plays, so get your bets in now before you get shut out! Thanks for reading, and make sure that you stay tuned to TheSportsGeek all season long, where our team of expert handicappers bring you all of the high value betting advice that you need to make money betting on NCAA Men’s College Basketball!

Sub Categories:
Jason Gray / Author

Jason is a true Las Vegas insider as he has called the sports betting capital of the world his home for sixteen years. Jason started out his career in gaming by running the biggest poker tournaments in the world and managing some of the biggest sportsbooks on the strip. Jason has transitioned out of casino operations and has been covering sports betting for the sports geek for just over two years. His main focus is on baseball, college basketball, and the NFL

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.