UFC Fight Night 206 Holm vs Vieira Prelim Card Odds and Predictions

UFC Preliminary Matches May 21

We’ve organized our top betting picks for the six prelim bouts at UFC Fight Night 206. You can see the UFC Main Card picks here.
The UFC Fight Night 206 odds are brought to you by Bovada, our top MMA betting site, and the Prelims air May 21st, 2021 starting at 4:10 PM ET. 

Top UFC Fight Night 206 Prelim Predictions

  • Parlay Pick: Joseph Holmes Money Line -200
  • Almeida Money Line -595
  • Medic Money Line +110
  • Morales Money Line at +185
  • Chase Hooper Money Line +150
  • Hughes vs Reed ‘No Decision’ Prop +225

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

UFC Fight Night 206 Prelim Odds: Joseph Holmes vs Alen Amedovski

Holmes is now 1-1 in the UFC, both times as the favorite at -455 and -133. He has other betting odds on record, always as the favorite since 2020. Holmes was an undefeated amateuer that hasn’t lost outside the UFC since his pro debut. 
Alen is 0-2 in the UFC, losing as the favorite to John Phillips and a +200 underdog against Krzysztof Jotko. Holmes has been far more active since turning pro, and Alen has never lost outside of the UFC. 

Tale of the Tape for Holmes vs Amedovski 

Fighter Joseph ‘UglyMan Joe’ Holmes  Alen Amedovski 
Age 26 34
Height 6’4’’ 5’10’’
Reach/Stance 80’’ Orthodox  74’’ Orthodox 
Record 7-2 8-2
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/0 0/0
Fighter Training Camp SFS MMA Allstars Training Center, Various

Holmes is the much larger, younger fighter. Alen is small for a middleweight, and Holmes is one of the biggest middleweights on the roster. Picket beat Holmes with a narrow decision win and still had trouble outboxing Holmes on the feet despite matching him in reach. Alen will struggle finding the chin of Holmes as a fighter with a six inch reach disadvantage. Both fighters teams are moderate, producing some high level fighters. 

UFC Fight Night 206 Prelim Betting Odds for Holmes vs Amedovski 

Bet Odds
Joseph Holmes Money Line -200
Alen Amedovski Money Line +164
Over 1.5 Rounds -135
Under 2.5 Rounds -240

Holmes was a stronger favorite against Shonte Barnes in his DWCS appearance. These are the third lowest favorite odds in his career, after his LFA win over Ryan Leininger and his UFC loss to Picket. Amedovski was only ever the underdog in his loss to Jotko, including his two fight Bellator run. 

UFC Fight Night 206 Prelim Prop Bets: Holmes vs Amedovski

Both fighters have had one decision, though Amedovski was knocked out by Jotko in round 1. There isn’t enough data on these two in high level fights to make a calculated decision on the UFC Fight Night 206 odds for over/under props. 

MMA Breakdown for Holmes vs Aedovski

Holmes is a lanky grappler, and will look to engage Alen against the fence early and often. At the UFC level, Alen has a .52 significant strikes landed per minute in his first two fights. This may be the worst offensive accuracy in UFC history if he keeps it up. 

Joe has real power, and you can see him here against a Jhonoven Pati, a fighter with a similar build to Alen. I don’t see how Alen is going to win this one. Joseph Holmes -200 money line pays out $50 per $100 wagered and is a great parlay pick. 
PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

UFC Fight Night 206 Prelim Odds: Jailton Almeida vs Parker Porter

Almeida won his DWCS debut followed by a UFC finish in February, landing 30 unanswered strikes on Danilo Marques at -370. Jailton beat Nasrudinov as a +168 underdog. Porter is 3-1 in the UFC, losing only to Chris Daukaus at +110. His three fight winning streak includes two upset wins over Chase Sherman and Josh Parisian. 

Tale of the Tape for Almeida vs Porter 

Fighter Jailton ‘Malhadinho’ Almeida  Parker Porter 
Age 30 37
Height 6’3’’ 6’0’’ 
Reach/Stance 79’’ Orthodox  75’’ Orthodox 
Record 15-2 13-6
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/1 0/0
Fighter Training Camp LG System  Thorton’s MMA 

Parker is beat in every category, from UFC finishes, total losses, age and height. He has Almeida beat in weight, 265 in his last bout. Almeida is moving up to heavyweight from 205 for the majority of his career. Almeida will fight in both divisions, and said he’s better as a heavyweight, coming in close to 240. 

UFC Fight Night 206 Prelim Betting Odds for Almeida vs Porter 

Bet Odds
Almeida Money Line -595
Porter Money Line +420
Over 1.5 Rounds +125

Betting lines think Almeida will blast right through Porter. Parker has only one fight via decision, though his loss to Daukaus was in the first round. I see Porter surviving round 1 if he’s able to utilize the clinch, but it’s not something I’d bet on. The Over prop supports the majority of Parker’s wins but nearly none of Almeida’s through his whole career. 

MMA Breakdown for Almeida vs Porter

Aleida is a special kind of athlete. He took an average .72 strikes per minute in his first two showings totalling nearly ten minutes of octagon time, racking up a 7.28 takedown ratio per fifteen minutes. Look at the finishing ground strikes from Jailton. 

Porter is the opposite. A slow, methodical heavyweight that ends up in vicious slugfests with his opponent’s. He’s been hit with a total 323 significant strikes across four fights, all in two years. From a style standpoint, Porter doesn’t utilize control time in a way that’s going to bring him the victory over a smaller, more athletic fighter like Almeida. 

Expect a fight that’s fun to watch. I think Porter will put up a fight and try to move Almeida against the cage. These two will meet in the middle and we will quickly see how much Porter’s weight matters against Almeida’s style of cage grappling. He should have a thirty to forty pound weight advantage on fight day, as he cuts down to make the 265 weight limit. 

UFC FIght Night 206 Prelim Prediction 

We’re taking the easy road and betting the Almeida money line at -595. Almeida pays out $16.81 per $100 wagered. Because of the move up win weight class, I’d classify this as a value bet and not a parlay pick. 
PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

UFC Fight Night 206 Prelim Odds: Omar Morales vs Uros Medic

Morales has been the favorite in his last four appearances, going 2-2 overall. He upset Harvey Park at +200 in a DWCS debut, and is now 4-2 for the UFC. Uros Medic is coming off his first career loss to Jalin Turner as a -110 favorite. He has been the favorite in all other fight appearances, and this is his first ever showing as an underdog. 

Tale of the Tape for Medic vs Morales 

Fighter Uros ‘The Doctor’ Medic  Omar ‘Venezuelan Fighter’ Morales 
Age 29 37
Height 6’1’’ 5’11’’
Reach/Stance 71’’ Southpaw 73’’ Orthodox 
Record 7-1 11-2
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/2 0/1
Fighter Training Camp Kings MMA  Sanford MMA 

Medic is the younger, taller fighter. He has a 66% UFC finishing rate, compared to the 15% from Marales. Both fighters are at high level camps that are consistently producing top talent. Medic’s loss to Turner came after a striking clinic, which is a wonder considering Uros was hit only twice in the two knockout wins prior. 

UFC Fight Night 206 Prelim Betting Odds for Medic vs Morales 

Bet Odds
Medic Money Line +115
Morales Money Line -140

Medic is the underdog after only one loss. The UFC can be unforgiving, and Morales has gone to decision with strikers like Giga Chikadze. Uros will have to prove he’s cut from a different cloth to get the finish over Morales in his usual fashion. 

MMA Breakdown for Medic vs Morales

Medic has strong accuracy and timing that comes from a traditional martial arts background. He’s the kind of fighter that has aggression and not enough pro kickboxing experience to stop him from utilizing it well. He believes he can finish Omar and anyone else. 

Key UFC Stats

Fighter Medic Morales
Takedown Accuracy/Defense 0,66% 100%, 63%
Strikes Absorbed 3.42 2.83

Morales has never taken a failed takedown, that’s three across six fights. He struggled to find the angle on GIga, but his fight with Dong Hyun Ma showed his willingness to beat the athlete with patience. 

UFC FIght Night 206 Prelim Prediction for Medic vs Morales

We’re taking the Underdog bet, Medic money line at +115. He’s still a nearly undefeated knockout artist, and Morales has lost every step up in competition he’s faced. Of his defeated UFC opponents only one has a winning UFC record. Bet Medic for double your money in our underdog pick of the prelims!

UFC Fight Night 206 Prelim Odds: Jonathan Martinez vs Vince Morales 

Martinez has flown under the UFC radar, racking up a 6-3 UFC record. Vince Morales is now 3-4 on a two fight UFC winning streak that includes the Louis Smolka knockout. Both Fighters have knockout power, and both fighters can be knocked out. 

UFC Fight Night 206 Prelim Betting Odds for Martinez vs Morales

Bet Odds
Martinez Money Line -230
Morales Money Line  +185
Morales by TKO +500

We see another upset. Morales has more power overall. He was unlucky in meeting both Song Yadong and Chris Gutierrez in his early UFC run, but he’s coming into his own when fighting other kickboxing centered fighters. 
Martinez was knocked out by Grant who has been knocked down four times in his UFC career. We see another undercard upset at +185. Your UFC Fight Night 206 odds payout $185 per $100 wager for this Morales Money LIne. 
PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

UFC Fight Night 206 Prelim Odds: Chase Hooper vs Felipe Colares 

Hooper returns off another loss, putting him at 3-2 in the UFC, still one of the youngest fighters at only 22. Felipe Colares is a 2-3 fighter with five decisions on his record. We have no doubt that Chase will hunt the submission or ground finish. 

UFC Fight Night 206 Prelim Betting Odds for Hooper vs Colares

Bet Odds
Hooper Money Line +150
Colares Money Line  -185
Hooper by TKO +1000

Oddsmakers and bettors lost their faith in Hooper’s ability to fight a decent athlete. Hooper’s power is in question despite having more knockouts in the UFC than Colares. This is confusing, and the only explanation is that people just don’t like Hooper and his presentation as ‘the kid’ in the UFC. We’re ready to take the easy money, betting our third underdog pick of the prelim card bet Chase Hooper at +150 for a $150 return per $100 wagered on a fighter with more finishes, more UFC wins, and better strikes landed and absorbed per minute. 
PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

UFC Fight Night 206 Prelim Odds: Elise Reed vs Sam Hughes 

Elise Reed is now 1-1 in the UFC, coming off a close split decision win over Cory McKenna. 
Sam Hughes is 1-3 in the UFC, coming off her first win under similar circumstances. 

UFC Fight Night 206 Prelim Betting Odds for Reed vs Hughes 

Bet Odds
Reed Money Line +150
Hughes Money Line  -185
Fight Goes the Distance  -325
Fight Does not Go the Distance +225

Hughes has a slight favorite status despite having more UFC losses but some very close bouts. Reed’s TKO loss to Sijara Eubanks make’s us skeptical of the ‘Goes the Distance prop’ and its safety. Eubanks has no other UFC finishes on record. Despite both fighters struggling to finish UFC fighters, they’ve scored three finishes each outside of the UFC. 
This is a tough fight to predict between two evenly matched fighters. We’re going with the ‘no decision’ prop bet at +225. Both fighters know their contracts are on the line. Because of that, they’ll scrap hard for a win and finish in their next showing. 
PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

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Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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