UFC 252 Parlay Party

UFC 252 Parlay

We are back again with another parlay(s) of the week.

I know.

One parlay should be enough but I don’t think we have failed yet from adding a third or fourth leg to our parlays.

I think it was one of our two anchors that broke the chain when we lost.

Last week was a good one. We hit Nasrat Haqparast and Youssef Zalal for a (-119) win.
Then, we added Kevin Holland for a (+127) cash.

All three fighters looked sensational and dominated so that felt good.

As far as our straight picks, we hit on Beneil Dariush as a moderate favorite of (-170) and took a shot at Oleinik as a 2-1 dog in the main event.

He almost got the first-round finish. Even though he didn’t, I will make the same bet again.

All I need is to win 3 out of 10 times and I’m getting a 20% return on my investment.

Weidman also won for us, somehow!

Bravo, Chris!

Your reflexes mirrored those of well, let me not make a bad joke here.

But if you saw the fight, man, he looked like gelatin.

His superior wrestling and will to win in the third round made the difference.

Alright, on to this week’s action!

BetOnline.AG has the betting odds for our parlays.

Let’s play.

Virna Jandiroba + Herbert Burns: -122

These two Brazilian submission artists are some pretty solid anchors.

I don’t want to jinx myself and go on about them too much but they are both dangerous fighters who can threaten almost anyone in the top 10 of their division.

Threats sell and it looks like UFC 252 will be showcasing these two stranglers.

Both of them are fighting aging veterans.

Herbert is matched up with Daniel Pineda.

He is a very dangerous fighter but in a small cage, I love Burns’s ability and will to get this fight to the ground and fast.

How dangerous is Daniel “Pit” Pineda?

He is 26-13 in his career with every single win coming inside the distance.

That is incredible and it also tells you that some of those 13 losses could have probably been victories if he would have fought “smarter”.

He is coming off of two submission wins, ehem, I mean no-contests in PFL, a solid promotion.

Daniel tested positive for elevated levels of good ole testosterone and his wins were erased from the history books.

Now, he’s coming off of the sauce, I’m sure USADA is all over the testing…that is unless things somehow minimize performance enhancing screenings.

I think it’s safe to say that Pineda will be a lesser version of himself at least physically when we see him Saturday night.

He’s dangerous, yes, but whenever he has stepped up to UFC level competition, he has failed.

Herbert Burns is a threat to the champ.

I think he makes quick work of “Pit”.

Virna Jandiroba?!

If you read my UFC 252 Betting Guide, you know I picked Felice Herrig, Jandiroba’s opponent, as a live dog.

Yea, she’s live.

Felice has a ton of experience and can defend the takedown but I did some more research on Virna and she is the real deal on the mat.

Her takedowns are legit as well.

She is also coming off of nearly a 2 year layoff.

Felice had lost her two previous fights before she took the time off. I looked at her IG and she mentioned she bought a house and had some knee surgery.

Physically, she looks tremendous as normal but I just see Virna getting that body lock and tripping Felice to the floor.

Herrig has never been submitted in the UFC but she’s never really faced any submission artists either.

She’s also turning 36 next month. They’re in a small cage. Jandiroba took down Esparza and her last opponent who was a high school wrestler.

She may only need one against Lil Bulldog.

Parlay #1
Jandiroba + Burns
-122

Jandiroba + Burns + Dvalishvili: +161

Guys, this is money right here.

We are talking two probable first round submissions and then betting on a fighter who averages over 8 takedowns/15 minutes.

Full Disclosure:
When I first heard about Merab fighting John Dodson, I thought man, Dodson is live!

Maybe it’s because it’s so hard to find a live dog against Dvalishvili but Merab bounces around with so much freedom, too much if you ask me, and Dodson is a sniper who can match Merab bounce for bounce.

These two might be the bounciest matchup in UFC history.

It sounds silly but bounciness is an official statistic, at least inside my peanut head it is.

If I’m betting Merab, the only thing I’m worried about is if he runs into a big shot because if timed correctly, it can be a really really big shot because of his forward momentum.

I love running guys into punches or kicks. It’s the force of two as Bruce Lee would say and Dvalishvili is susceptible to just that.

Guess who did that to his last opponent getting a TKO win as an underdog?

I can see his big smile now.

How can you hate on John Dodson?

If it weren’t for Might Mouse being the baby GOAT, John Dodson would have been the champ at 125 for a while I think.

He is now past his prime but a recent knockout win over prospect Nathaniel Wood may have woken up a sleeping giant.

I’m really selling the wrong guy here but styles make fights.

I think this will be a very fun fight but I’m also confident Merab gets his hand raised by the end of it.

He has great takedowns but he has trouble keeping people there. Everyone has trouble keeping John Dodson on his back. He is one of the best scramblers in the history of MMA.

  • Dodson knocked out Wood beautifully as the Brit was running in after “landing” a straight right.
  • Dodson rolled his chin with the punch and countered by landing 2 power side left hooks in less than a second with the latter punch flooring Wood.

Absolutely beautiful stuff but Wood did not try to grapple at all in that fight. I do believe that the longer these two are standing and trading, the closer Dodson is to potentially knocking Merab out.

But, I don’t think that is going to be a huge chunk of the clock.

Clinch, scramble, and control time on the mat will likely account for 80% of the time fought.

That’s enough for our third leg.

Parlay #2
Jandiroba + Burns + Dvalishvili
+161

Jandiroba + Burns + Dvalishvili + Brown: +336

Downtown Julie, I mean TJ Brown is not the most durable fighter but on paper, he’s got this one.

His opponent is very skilled in the striking realm but Brown has some of the best offensive wrestling in the UFC’s Featherweight Division.

  • He has a massive reach of nearly 74 inches with broad shoulders at 5’9”.
  • He is the much better athlete and takedown artist than his opponent, Danny Chavez.

TJ has been KO’ed more than once in his career but he had won four fights in a row all by stoppage himself before his UFC debut defeat following the Contender Series against Jordan Griffin.

He was dominating until he got caught in a guillotine and that’s Jordan’s best move.

I’m not discrediting TJ so hard for that. It was in February of this year which means it was in front of a crowd in his UFC debut.

Fighters hardly ever look their best in their debuts.

I know he is mad too! Coming out and looking great against a solid opponent only to get caught in a choke.

I think this put a chip on TJ’s shoulder and he will look even better on Saturday.

If his opponent were a submission specialist and not a KO guy like Chavez, I might hesitate but small cage, bigger guy, better athlete, better wrestler, takedown TJ Brown.

Parlay #3
Jandiroba + Burns + Dvalishvili + Brown
+336

In Conclusion

I don’t want to tell you guys to go crazy with your bets here but I do feel very good about things.

  • Jandiroba has three subs in three fights inside the Octagon and in her other fight, she lost to Carla Esparza who beats just about everyone.
  • Felice is coming off of a two-year layoff and will be 36 next month…
  • Herbert Burns might face some fire in the first but frankly, he’s gonna get to Pineda’s neck before the end of it.
  • Merab has a tough opponent and I almost value TJ Brown more than him.

I know that sounds ridiculous to value an 0-1 UFC fighter more than one of the most consistent and dominant wrestlers in MMA.

But styles make fights and I feel like Dodson’s recent KO woke him up and he might have even more confidence in his hands on Saturday night.

But there’s no time, captain!

Dvalishvili is going to stay in his face and John is likely going to spend more time getting off of his butt than he will be engaging in a striking battle with the Serra/Longo product.

Please Note:
Merab is being overvalued because of the particular matchup of bounciness and I think TJ is undervalued simply because he lost his last fight.

I believe both will win, though, at least 2 out of 3 times and that’s all we need here to add them onto the end of what should already be a paying parlay.

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Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.