UFC 269 Full Card Betting Picks, Latest Odds and Fight Analysis

UFC 269 Betting Predictions

UFC 269 is a stacked fifteen-fight card, with a half dozen top ten contenders and two title bouts. We’re covering each fight in this UFC betting pick, you’ll see the odds and available bets for each bout, and a short breakdown of how we think the fight will go.

UFC 269 at UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada is available on PPV December 11th, 2021. We’re jumping right into our main event and working down to the early preliminary fights on ESPN +.

Charles Oliveira vs Dustin Poirier

This title unifier bout is for the Undisputed Lightweight Belt. Oliveira is the champion but comes in as the underdog to the Interim champion Poirier.

Charles has had a tough run as the champ, showing up as the underdog twice now. His favorite status as champion has never risen above -178. This was against Michael Chandler in a stunning KO title defense victory.

Oliveira has won as the underdog three times, such as against Furgeson and Lee, and lost twice, as with Max Holllowy.

Poirier was the underdog in his second bout with Connor McGregor and the fight with Khabib. So he’s 1-1 for underdog stats over the past two years. As a favorite, Dustin hasn’t lost since his fight with Michael Johnson in 2016.

Tale of the Tape for Oliveira vs Poirier

Fighter Charles Oliveira Dustin Poirier
Moneyline +125 -145
Age 32 32
Height 5’10’’ 5’9’’
Reach/Stance 74’’ Orthodox 72’’ Southpaw
Record 31-8, 1 NC 28-6, 1 NC
Submissions/TKO in UFC 14/3 3/10
Over/Under 1 ½ Rounds Prop Bet O -185 U +155
Fighter Training Camp Chute Boxe Diego Lima American Top Team

Oliveira has the height and reach advantages. He also has an experience advantage by about five fights inside the UFC.

Oliveira has seventeen UFC finishes to Dustin’s thirteen, and while the finishing percentage may go to Dustin, it’s hard to compete with this level of MMA submission work.

Fight Team Comparison

Oliveira trains at Chute Boxe, an academy that does a good job of staying centered on mma. One thing about Chute Boxe training is you’re always ‘training fighting.’ This team doesn’t break down into BJJ classes or kickboxing classes often.

They stay focused on the bits of the game in between arts, such as ducking under a punch to shoot, using submissions to set up ground strikes and clenching escapes that build into striking combinations. Dustin’s ATT is one of the best teams in the world. He’s surrounded by champions and has the highest level coaching staff at his disposal. One knock against him is that he doesn’t live there. He goes to Florida the 6-12 weeks prior to a fight and lives in Louisiana full time.

It’s difficult to explain the difference between a fighter who trains at a high-level place three times a year and one that lives right next to one. Oliveira has the advantage of year round access to the coaching team.

Fight Bet Analysis

While Dustin has the striking advantage on paper, I think people will be surprised by the exchanges. Many of Dustin’s top knockout performances have come in the last three years, and Oliveira has developed his striking game in a similar time period.

Analysts had also said that Chandler had a better striking game than Poirier, convinced that he would knock out Oliveira and then deal with Poirier.

Instead, Oliveira scored the KO, solidifying his place as champion.

If you’d like a detailed breakdown of all of the available props and picks, we do that just for this Main Event in our Oliveira vs Poirier Pick.

UFC Stats for Poirer vs Oliveira

Charles lands at 3.2 and absorbs 3 strikes per minute on average and scores 2.6 takedowns per fifteen minutes. Poirier lands at 5.6 and absorbs at 4.19 with a 61% takedown defense.

I see Poirier doing everything he can to stay off his back and off d’arce attacks from oversprawl.

Oliveira will need to circle out and slow the pace of the fight. He’ll use his evolving jab and teep kicks to push Poirier toward the center of the ring.

Final Betting Pick

I pick Charles Oliveira at +125.

He’s an underrated champion who’s still proving his skills after early career losses. People tend to underestimate submission work because they haven’t seen too many high-level counter grapplers, but I see Oliveira holding the title for a long time.


Amand Nunes vs Julianna Pena

Nunes is the undisputed champion, taking out her last challenger in one round. Nune’s -1000 comes in as her most favorite finishing position in the UFC, as many settle into believing that she’s unstoppable.

Nunes came in at -699 vs Anderson and -360 vs Holm. Her last underdog status was against Shevchenko in 2017 and Nunes brutalized her.

Pena has never in her career been this big of an underdog. She came in as the +100 underdog against McMann in her last bout, winning in the third round via comeback submission. She also upset Cat Zingano at +155 in 2016.

Pena has the tools to make this a tough bout but not to win. This is a fight I’ll be parlaying with other strong champions over the weekend like Katie Taylor.

Tale of the Tape for Nunes vs Pena

Fighter Amanda Nunes Julianna Pena
Moneyline -1000 +600
Age 33 32
Height 5’8’’ 5’6’’
Reach/Stance 69’’ Orthodox 69’’ Orthodox
Record 21-4 11-4
Submissions/TKO in UFC 3/8 1/2
Over/Under 1 ½ Rounds Prop Bet O -141 U +111
Fighter Training Camp American Top Team Valle Flow Striking, Sikjitsu

The first thing that jumps out is the massive discrepancy in finishes between the two fighters. Nunes finished 11 of her UFC opponents while Pena finished three.

Nunes is also far more experienced, with ten fights more than her opponent.

Fighter Camp Comparison

Nunes’ ATT is one of the best camps in the world. She’ll be training alongside Interim champion Dustin Poirier. ATT has been her camp since 2014 after her second UFC loss.

She was training at MMA Masters, and has switched teams four times since the beginning of her fight career. Pena trains at VFS alongside Yair Rodriguez. While she started at Sikjitsu in Washington, home to dozens of high level fighters, she settled in Chicago after trying multiple camps including ATT.

Pena’s been critical of ATT saying that steroid use is too open and accepted there.

MMA Fight Analysis

Nunes strikes at 4.5 per minute, getting hit 2.4 times. Pena lands at 2.8 and absorbs at 1.7. While both boxers are solid defensively, Nunes pace is much higher and we can expect Pena to feel the need to clench and shoot often.

Pena’s takedown accuracy is 53%, which is fairly high.

Nunes defense is 84%, and she was last takedown down in 2018 vs Pennington. Nunes’ new strategy of taking you down before you even get the chance to take her down has proved useful. She’s scored 14 takedowns over the last three fights.

Final Betting Pick

Nunes is a world-beater. I pick Amanda Nunes at -1000, but in my detailed betting pick on Nunes vs Pena, I go into why the Nunes -5.5 Points Spread bet at -600 is even better.


Geoff Neal vs Santiago Ponzinibbio

This welterweight bout includes the once-promising Geoff Neal after a two-fight skid versus Magny and Thompson. He’ll be up against under-recognized Santiago Ponzinibbio, a fighter with five UFC finishes and not enough fans.

Neal won his first six bouts in the UFC, looking nearly unstoppable. He came in the favorite over Thompson and Magny. Saturday will be his first time as the underdog in the UFC.

Santiago was also upset as the favorite, losing to Jingliang Li earlier this year as a -300. He upset Gunnar Nelson via KO in 2017 at a +167 underdog status. It’s clear that oddsmakers are still figuring out how to make odds on both of these fighters.

Tale of the Tape for Neal vs Ponzinibbio

Fighter Geoff Neal Santiago Ponzinibbio
Moneyline +110 -130
Age 31 35
Height 5’11’’ 6’0’’
Reach/Stance 75’’ Southpaw 73’’ Orthodox
Record 13-4 29-4
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/4 0/5
Over/Under 2 ½ Rounds Prop Bet O +110 U -140
Fighter Training Camp Fortis MMA American Top Team

The fighters show similar stats, with Santiago being a bit taller but with shorter reach. They have the same number of finishes, though Santiago has far more career bouts.

Fight Camp Comparison

Fortis MMA is on the rise, sporting fighters like Morono, Damon Jackson, and Miles Johns, each with 2020-2021 winning streaks. Fortis is yet to have a UFC champion, but with their current stable of fighters it’s easy to see how that’s possible.

American Top Team is Santiago’s camp, and their non-champion stable of fighters has had mixed results this year. Kyoji, Nik Lentz, Masvidal, Lima, Straus, and Leandro Silva are a short list of fighters who haven’t seen a 2021 win. For 2021, ATT is about 50/50 in the UFC.

Fight Analysis for Neal vs Ponzinibbio

Neal gets hit slightly more often than he lands, scoring around four strikes a minute. Santiago does the same. Their numbers are rather similar.

This fight is going to come down to who’s chin is better, unless Geoff decides to sprinkle in a takedown as he does once every other fight.

Neal hasn’t been knocked out. His two UFC losses are via decision, however Santiago has been knocked out twice in the UFC by Larkin and Jingliang.

The Neil Magny Fight

Both fighters faced Magny, with Santiago beating him in 2018 and Neal losing a three rounder. It’s interesting to watch these fights, because it’s clear Magny fades in the Santiago fight, he may have won a three-round decision, but the fight was scheduled for five.

I see this as a side note, not actually signaling a Santiago win.

Final Betting Pick

I pick Geoff Neal at +110 for another upset win.

This is going to be a moment of remembrance of what Neal can do to the majority of athletes. Thompson and Magny showed good striking discipline, stopping Neal from landing the heaviest shots. Santiago is willing to exchange, and historically, this is what gets him knocked out early. The under at -140 is also a good option, but Neal hasn’t been knocked out and I don’t see Santiago as the first to do it.


Kai Kara-France vs Cody Garbrandt

The Bantamweight champion drops to flyweight to face Kara-France, a fighter with mixed results coming off a their first UFC knockout.

Garbrandt is a slight favorite, which is a long fall for the once champion. He’s lost four of his last five fights, two of which were for the title versus TJ Dillashaw. Garbrandt was the underdog in gaining the title from Dominick Cruz in 2016. He’s since been the underdog twice. Once in the Dillashaw rematch, and again in his loss to Rob Font earlier this year.

Kai has been a favorite in the UFC, ranging from -130 to -360 over his last few fights despite regular losses. This is his first time on record as an underdog, opening at +105 and closing at +121.

Tale of the Tape for Kara-France vs Garbrandt

Fighter Kai Kara-France Cody Garbrandt
Moneyline +121 -141
Age 28 30
Height 5’4’’ 5’8’’
Reach/Stance 69’’ Orthodox 65’’ Orthodox
Record 22-9, 1 NC 12-4
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/1 0/5
Over/Under 2 ½ Rounds Prop Bet O +110 -140
Fighter Training Camp Tiger Muay Thai Mark Henry

Cody is taller, but with a four inch reach disadvantage. Kara-France has a career experience advantage, but fewer UFC bouts and UFC finishes.

Both fighters have made relatively recent camp changes, with famed coach for Frnakie Edgar Mark Henry now working with Garbrandt, and Kai relocating to Thailand’s Tiger Muay Thai.

It’s difficult to quantify which camp is better, and I’ll be interested to see what Henry and his unorthodox training protocols can do with the once champion Garbrandt.

Fight Analysis for Garbrandt vs Kara-France

Kara-France hits at 5 strikes a minute and absorbs strikes at 4 per minute. Garbrandt hits at 3 and absorbs at 4 per minute on average. These stats aren’t particularly useful given how far apart the competition is for both fighters. Kara-France is fighting UFC newcomers and Garbrandt is up against champions.

I think it’s better to focus on in-fight performances and fight tape for this bout.

Garbrandt vs Assuncao

For a moment, we had our old champion back. He was fast, difficult to hit, and patient. Garbrandt’s biggest weakness is getting baited into exchanges form the outside, which is terrible given his paltry reach of 65”.

In this fight he showed a nearly flawless second round KO, with Raphael landing only minor strikes up to that point.

Kara-France vs Bontorin

This showed the power we’ve all been waiting for from Kai. He’s allegedly a KO artist, but this was his first UFC KO. He didn’t look better than in his close decision loss to Brandon Moreno, but he did test Rogerio’s chin early.

Kara-France vs Brandon Royval

Brandon got the knockdown to submission in this back and forth battle. France showed one of the weaknesses that keeps popping up for Tiger Muay Thai, a consistent inability to blend kickboxing and mma. Kai got caught on the transition, something Garbrandt is quite good at.

Final Betting Pick

I pick Cody Garbrandt at -141. A former champ pays out at $0.71 on the dollar versus a fighter who isn’t even in the top ten; this makes it an easy pick. I hope Garbrandt finds his home at Flyweight, though it looks like he’s setting up a fight with Sean O’Malley.


Raulian Paiva vs Sean O’Malley

Paiva is 4-2 in the UFC and is now facing the well protected Sean O’Malley. O’Malley is a knockout artist who’s 2020 loss to Marlon Vera derailed his title run.

Raulian is the underdog, but he’s coming off a +275 upset win over Kyler Phillips. He lost his first UFC underdog performance vs Kara-France in 2019.

O’Malley has only ever  been the favorite, ranging from -145 against Andre Soukhamthath to -500 against Eddie Wineland.

Tale of the Tape for O’Malley vs Paiva

Fighter Sean O’Malley Raulian Paiva
Moneyline -300 +250
Age 27 26
Height 5’11’’ 5’8’’
Reach/Stance 72” Switch 69’’ Orthodox
Record 14-1 21-3
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/5 0/1
Over/Under 2 ½ Rounds Prop Bet O +100 U -130
Fighter Training Camp Sanabul and MMA Lab Team Alpha Male

Sean is a strong favorite, coming in taller,  with a great reach, and with a better UFC finishing percentage than the former flyweight Paiva.

Both fighters come from high level teams, though Paiva got his Blackbelt before he even started fighting in the UFC, and Sean is a BJJ Brown Belt.

Over/Under Props

The under is only a favorite because of the belief that Sean O’Malley will finish Paiva. Paiva’s fights go long. His only one round fight is a knockout loss to Rogerio Bontorin.

Betting the Under seems wise, but only if you don’t believe in Paiva’s takedown ability.

Other Prop Bets for O’Malley vs Paiva

There are a dozen bets available at Betonline.ag for this fight, including method of victory and round calling props. I’ve narrowed it down to four you may consider.

Bet Odds
Sean O’Malley by TKO or DQ +115
Raulian Paiva by Submission +1000
Paiva by TKO or DQ +550
Sean O’Malley  -3.5 Points spread -200

Sean is likely to win via TKO, so +115 is going to be the right call for most of his fans.

Paiva will be grappling heavily in this bout. Just because he doesn’t have a UFC submission, doesn’t mean he can’t do it. I see a TKO and Submission as equally likely for Paiva, and if you hate Sean O’Malley and want an emotional bet, take one of these two.

Sean by -3.5 points means that if Sean finishes, this bet pays out. If it goes to a decision, you win if Sean gives up less than 3.5 points on all three scorecards total (i.e. one round across all three cards.)

Fight Analysis for O’Malley vs Paiva

Paiva gets hit more often than he lands and scores just .6 takedowns per round. His only hope for this fight is if Uriah Faber significantly boosted his wrestling abilities in the past year.

O’Malley lands strikes at an 8:3 ratio, hosting a 60% takedown defense. This sprawl and brawl fighter relies on his reach to land volume from the outside, including spinning heel kicks and other long range kicking techniques.

Unless Paiva develops a standing grappling game, he doesn’t have a chance.

Final Betting Pick

I’ll be picking the Sean O’Malley -3.5 Points spread. It pays at fifty cents per dollar wagered and it covers the likely outcomes of the bout. Sean is a protected fighter, and the UFC craves another McGreggor who can knock out almost everyone that they can shuttle to Champion status unscathed.


Josh Emmett vs Dan Ige

Emmett is on a three fight winning streak, going 7-2 in the UFC overall. He’s come in the underdog in his last three bouts and won three in a row. He also upset Ricardo Lamas with a first round TKO in 2017.

This guy is an upset machine.

Dan Ig has faced stiff competition, losing to Korean Zombie and Kattar over his last three.

He defeated Edson Barboza via decision, and knocked out Gavin Tucker earlier this year with a first round, single strike KO.

He was the favorite in his loss to Korean Zombie Chan Sung Jung. Now he’s the underdog in this featherweight contender matchup.

Tale of the Tape for Emmett vs Ige

Fighter Josh Emmett Dan Ige
Moneyline -150 +130
Age 36 30
Height 5’6’’ 5’7’’
Reach/Stance 70’’ Orthodox 71’’ Orthodox
Record 16-2 15-4
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/3 2/2
Over/Under 2 ½ Rounds Prop Bet O -205 U +165
Fighter Training Camp Team Alpha Male AKA, Xtreme Couture MMA

Both fighters have chosen exceptional teams that have created multiple world champions. Ige has a slight youth, height and reach advantage. He has one more UFC finish as well, but three more UFC bouts.

Other Prop Bets for Emmett vs Ige

Here is a selection of my top alternative prop bet picks, all available at Betonline.ag. Odds accurate as of December 10th.

Bet Odds
Goes the Distance Yes -165 No +135
Emmet by Points +170
Ige by Points +200
Win inside the distance, Goes distance = No Action Emmett -205, Ige +165

The odds are that we see a decision. Both have shown finishing ability, but his bout is evenly matched. Emmett was knocked out by Jeremy Stephens, but other than that, neither fight has been finished.

Emmet or Ige by points means that they win a decision, or that the fight is stopped short due to an illegal blow, it goes to the scorecards, and one fighter wins via points scored so far.

I see Emmett by points as a wise decision for anyone looking at his money line but wanting an odds boost.

‘Win inside the distance, Goes distance = no action’ means the bet pays out when a fighter wins the fight by stoppage, or it makes it to decision and they win every round. If you’re particularly confident in one fighter, but you’re unsure of a stoppage win, this is your move.

Fight Analysis for Emmett vs Ige

Emmett and Ige both get hit and absorb strikes at equal rates. Ige gets more takedowns on average, and has seen tougher fights over all.

While Ige has more well-rounded finishes, I don’t see him submitting Emmett or even being threatening with the submission.

Both fighters have beaten and survived high profile strikers ( Lamas and Barbosa) so a KO finish feels unlikely as well. This may be one of the tougher fights on the card to call.

Final Betting Pick

I’m betting the Over 2 ½ Rounds prop bet at -205.

This pays out at $0.48 per dollar wager, and covers any late fight upsets via either fighter. I can see a sudden TKO from Emmett in the third or exhaustion leading to an RNC win from either fighter, but there isn’t a clear winner to me. Ige’s underdog status seems strangely placed, as his showing against Jung was great and the decision was narrow. He’s fallen far in the oddsmakers minds over that bout.

Pedro Munhoz vs Dominick Cruz

Cruz has had a fun time commentating but is finally getting back in the cage. He won his only fight of 2021 after losing two title fights in 2020 and 2016 respectively.

Pedro Munhoz is an off and on killer, losing three of his last five, he’s defeated former champion Cody Garbrandt and title contender Jimmie Rivera, but lost to three former champions already in Sterling, Edgar and Aldo.

Cruz is the underdog for this bout, as he has been for his last two bouts. He was a +190 vs Henry Cejudo in their 2020 meet, and then a +130 in his win over Casey Kenney.

Munhoz has been the underdog for his last two bouts, going 1-1. His last time as favorite was his loss to Frankie Edgar in 2020.

Clearly, oddsmakers are having a bit of trouble pinning these two down as well.

Tale of the Tape for  Munhoz vs Cruz

Fighter Pedro Munhoz Dominick Cruz
Moneyline -120 +100
Age 35 36
Height 5’6’’ 5’8’’
Reach/Stance 66’’ Orthodox 68’’ Orthodox
Record 19-6, 1NC 23-3
Submissions/TKO in UFC 3/3 1/2
Over/Under 2 ½ Rounds Prop Bet O -240 U +190
Fighter Training Camp American Top Team, Kings MMA (2017) Alliance MMA

Cruz is older, taller, and takes the reach advantage. Munhoz has doubled the UFC finishes. It’s surprising to see a former champion with such a small finishing percentage. Cruz has always been about intense footwork and escaping damage will still win, though he’s been at the receiving end of a knockout and submission in the UFC.

Munoz has never been finished in the UFC.

Other Prop Bets for Munhoz vs Cruz

Now a closer look at the list of betting options for this fight. We’ve narrowed it down to our top six.

Bet Odds
Dominick Cruz by Points +145
Pedro Munhoz Wins Inside the Distance +275
Munhoz by TKO in Round 1 +1400
Munhoz in Round 1 +600
Goest the Distance Yes -200 No +160
Win Inside Distance, Goes Distance= No Action Cruz +200, Munhoz -260

Cruz by Points offers only a 40% stat boost, but it’s the right choice. Munhoz hasn’t been finished, so if you’re betting Cruz, this is a safe prop and offers a better payout.

Munhoz’s finishes are primarily in round 1, so either of the finishing in the first round props could be the right choice, but I’ll be steering clear of these long shots. Munhoz inside the distance is much safer, but I urge you to rewatch the Garbrandt fight to see the damage Cruz is capable of taking.

The fight will probably go to decision. The safety of a decision prop is enticing, and it still pays at half your total wager.

Fight Analysis for Cruz vs Munhoz

Munhoz gets hit more often than he lands, while Cruz boasts a 3.6:2.4 landed to absorbed ratio. Cruz also scores three times as many takedowns on average and has an 80% takedown defense.

When you look closely at their last two performances you see Munhoz getting outclassed by the UFC’s highest level striker in Aldo, and Cruz fighting beating Casey Kenney in moderate return performance.

Final Betting Pick

I see Cruz winning by points, and I’ll take that prop at +145.

Cruz is still a former champion, and I think he shook a bit of ring rust off in the Kenney fight. Munhoz is talented, but he’s been out-pointed by three champions and John Dodson for a reason- he has obvious and exploitable holes in his striking exchanges.


Augusto Sakai vs Tai Tuivasa

Sakai is on a two-fight losing streak to some big knockout artists in Rozenstruik and Overeem. He’s fighting yet another giant knockout artist in Tai Tuivasa.

Tai is on a three-fight winning streak over moderate heavyweights with three back-to-back first-round TKOs.

Sakai has been the underdog for his last two losses, and he came in as the underdog versus Tai as well. However, the fight was rescheduled and now the fighters are near even odds.

Tai has been the favorite in his last three, but he was also the favorite in his loss to Sergey Spivak at -285 and in his loss to Blagoy Ivanov at -160.

It’s clear that Tai has trouble with the right kind of wrestler, but Sakai is a fellow TKO artist and he’s convinced he’ll put Tuivasa to sleep.

Tale of the Tape for Tuivasa vs Sakai

Fighter Tai Tuivasa Augusto Sakai
Moneyline -115 -105
Age 28 30
Height 6’2’’ 6’3’’
Reach/Stance 75’’ Southpaw 77’’ Orthodox
Record 13-3 15-3-1
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/5 0/3
Over/Under 1 ½ Rounds Prop Bet O -156 U +126
Fighter Training Camp Tiger Muay Thai and AKA Gile Ribeiro Team

Sakai is taller and holds the reach advantage. Tai has more UFC finishes and one more bout in the UFC than Sakai.

Tiger Muay Thai and AKA are decorated gyms with some of the best fighters in the world. Sakai is at Gile Ribeiro Team, which has produced multiple champions for other organizations but has had trouble producing anyone of significance in the UFC outside of Augusto.

Fight Analysis for Tuivasa vs Sakai

Sakai and Tuivasa both get hit at a rate of four punches for every five they land. This is a fight that comes down to knockout power. Both fighters can put the other away.

Tai’s only decision win was against Andrei Arlovski in a fight that looked as if both men were gassed. Sakai saw a decision win against Blagoy, but only because Sakai’s takedown defense is better.

I see these two going head to head, with little regard for the grappling or clenching game.

Final Betting Pick

I’m tentative to bet either way, and the Under is always tempting during a fight between two knockout artists. I’m going to bet small on the Tai Tuivasa money line.

-115 offers $0.87 per dollar wagerd and it’s likely this fighter keeps his momentum.

I worry that the last two knockout losses haven’t given Sakai enough time to recover his chin, and he’ll go the way of Stephan Struve.


Jordan Wright vs Bruno Silva

Bet Odds
Wright Moneyline +275
Silva Moneyline -340
Over 1 ½ Rounds +128
Under 1 ½ Rounds -158

We bet against Silva in his last UFC appearance.

He’s small for a middleweight and has a karate kickboxing style similar to Lyoto Machida. He’s hitting at 5 strikes a minute and absorbing less than two.

  • In Silva’s first two performances he won via knockout in devastating fashion.
  • Wright is 2-1 in the UFC, and he was knocked out by Bukcly in 2020.

The fight between these two strikers should be over quickly, but I’ll stay safe and bet Burno Silva at -340. Bruno is one of the stronger favorites on this whole card. I won’t pass up his victory.


Andre Muniz vs Eryk Anders

Bet Odds
Muniz Moneyline -122
Anders Moneyline +127
Over 1 ½ Rounds -152
Under 1 ½ Rounds +122

Andre is undefeated in the UFC and DWCS, putting out three finishes over five fights since 2018. He recently submitted blackbelt Jacare Souza, breaking his arm earlier this year.

Muniz is a dangerous submission artist and he has the wrestling to take Anders down repeatedly.

Anders is a striker with mixed results. He’s yet to be submitted in the UFC, but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen. Anders’ most recent win over Darren Stewart is his best performance, and he was still taken down twice in three rounds.

I see an Andre Muniz win, and another submission. I’ll pick the Muniz money line, though I’m hoping for a quick submission victory.


Miranda Maverick vs Erin Blanchfield

Bet Odds
Maverick Moneyline -138
Blanchfield Moneyline +118
Over 2 ½ Rounds -352
Under 2 ½ Rounds +250

Maverick is 2-1, losing her most recent bout to Maycee Barber after two easy wins in 2020 and 2021. Blanchfield won her UFC debut after destroying Sarah Alpar, landing three takedowns and 120 strikes for a decision win.

I don’t feel I have the right number of UFC bouts to determine the winner, but a decision seems likely.

I’ll pick the Over 2 ½ Rounds prop at -352 to cover my bases on either fighter winning.

Erin hasn’t been knocked out outside of the UFC, so we should see some more high-quality wrestling from Blanchfield.


Alex Perez vs Matt Schnell

Bet Odds
Perez Moneyline -310
Schnell Moneyline +260
Over 2 ½ Rounds -140
Under 2 ½ Rounds +110

Perez is back after his title fight loss to Figueiredo in 2020.

Prerez has only ever lost to division champions so this should be a great showing for the #3 flyweight around. Schnell has lost two of his last three, and has lost to four different UFC fighters.

I see an easy Perez win at -310.

Ignore the over/under and take the surefire bet.


Ryan Hall vs Darrick Minner

Bet Odds
Hall Moneyline -200
Minner Moneyline +170
Over 2 ½ Rounds +130
Under 2 ½ Rounds -160

Hall is coming off his first UFC loss in July of 2021, getting knocked out by Ilia Topuria in the first round.

Hall has a history of frustrating tough fighters like Elkins and Maynard. His first round heel hook win over BJ Penn has him solidified as a dangerous but strange fighter.

Minner is a UFC newcomer, joining in 2020. He’s 2-2 for the organization with one submission victory. This seems like the right fight to get Hall back on track in the UFC, and in general, Hall will take any fight he can get.

I pick Ryan Hall at -200.

Let’s hope the last fight shook off some ring rust and he shows more grappling savvy.


Randy Costa vs Tony Kelley

Bet Odds
Costa Moneyline -170
Kelley Moneyline +145
Over 1 ½ Rounds -132
Under 1 ½ Rounds +102

Costa is 2-2 in the UFC, losing and winning by all finishes in his short career.

Tony Kelly is 1-1 in the UFC, Debuting with a beautiful fight of the night performance vs Kai Kamaka.

This is a tough fight to call.
Both fighters are strikers with virtually no ground game outside of wrestling to stand up. So we should expect a stand up battle. It all comes down to Kelly’s chin, which looked great vs Kamaka.

I’ll take the Over 1 ½ Rounds prop at -132. I think we see another intense back and forth bout from Kelley.


Gillian Robertson vs Priscilla Cachoeira

Bet Odds
Robertson Moneyline -400
Cachoeira Moneyline +300
Over 2 ½ Rounds +120
Under 2 ½ Rounds -150

Cachoeira is on a winning streak while Robertson is on a losing streak.

Robertson’s wrestling is her strong suit and she’s only lost to better grapplers inside the UFC, and Maycee Barber who knocked her out before she had the chance to shoot. Cachoeira has lost Molly McCann, showing that he couldn’t quite get up after being taken down in 2019.

I’m not going big on this call, but after reviewing the tape, I’m picking Priscilla Cachoeira.

I think we could see another first or second round knockout. Robertson’s striking is okay, but hasn’t improved much since the Maycee Barber fight. We may see a repeat of that bout.

UFC 269 Betting Picks Full Card Wrap Up

This card has more current and former champions of any card of the year. It’s exciting to see so many UFC favorites in one place, but I’m even more excited to see point spread bets for every fight on the main card. If you’re new to point spreads in mma, start here.

Sub Categories:
Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.