UFC 270 Betting Picks, Latest Odds and Full Card Preview

Only One Can Be King UFC 270 Background

We’re covering all thirteen fights for UFC 270, the first pay-per-view of 2022. Each fight will include the latest odds and our top betting pick, along with relevant stats and fight analysis to support our bet.

This Saturday, January 22nd, 2022 in California, bet on two UFC titles and eleven fighters chasing down UFC contention on one of 2022’s top betting sites.

Francis Ngannou vs Ciryl Gane

We covered the massive number of prop bets for this bout in our betting pick analysis, so check it out if you’re interested in seeing all seven betting markets and 30+ prop bets.

This main event is for the heavyweight title and is Ngannou’s first title defense since beating Stipe Miocic in their 2021 rematch.

Gane is undefeated in MMA and kickboxing, and faces his toughest challenge to date in a former training partner.
Tale of the Tape for Ngannou vs Gane

Fighter Francis Ngannou Ciryl Gane
Age 35 31
Height 6’4’’ 6’4’’
Reach/Stance 83’’ Orthodox 81’’ Orthodox
Record 16-3 10-0
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/10, 84% 2/2, 57%
Fighter Training Camp Xtreme Couture MMA MMA Factory

Gane has a slight advantage in submission work. Of Ngannou’s two losses, his bout with Miocic was the most definitive. He was taken down six times in their first fight in 2018, giving up a total of fifteen minutes of control over the 25 minute fight.

Gane’s submission victories are interesting to me.

Gane knows Ngannou’s power, and presumably knows where he’s weakest, since they were former training partners. If I had to place a prop bet, I’d be looking at Gane via submission or decision.

Betting Odds for Ngannou vs Gane

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager
Ciryl Gane Money Line -153, $0.63
Francis Ngannou Money Line +133, $1.33
Over 2 ½ Rounds -115, $0.87
Under 2 ½ Rounds -115, $0.87

Gane opened as the underdog but has risen to the favorite for several reasons. Ngannou’s physique changes, his contract battle with the UFC, and his general disregard for the threat Gane poses are each telling mistakes.

We look at this closely in the prop betting pick, but both fighters offer too many factors, in both cardio and finishing ability, to properly predict the Over/Under.

Fight Analysis and Final Betting Pick

Gane uses range to land teeps and push kicks to the legs on longer opponents, such as Tanner Bosner. I’d be surprised to see him hanging out lackadaisical inside Ngannou’s range. Expect Gane to perform a long range kickboxing fight, with tight, takedown-centered clench work. The clip of Gane working elbow and knee combinations is to throw Ngannou off, and has nothing to do with his strategy in this bout.

Ngannou may look for top position more in this fight than ever before. He’s been drilling a significant amount of ground and pound as well as submission defense. Ngannou firmly believes in his ability to achieve the knockout, but I’d be unsurprised to see him look differently against Gane, who’s technical kickboxing should be a struggle for any striker to keep up with.

I see Ciryl Gane bringing home the belt, as Factory MMA’s second UFC champion, a payout of $63 per $100 wagered.


Brandon Moreno vs Deiveson Figueiredo

For our co-main event, we also covered the props in detail inside a prop betting pick. Look to this pick for extended prop betting analysis as well as round calling props, such as the very safe ‘Will the Fight Go to Round 2’ at -450.

This is Moreno’s first title defense, and Figueiredo’s fourth title fight, ranging back to July 2020 when he won the title off of Benavidez.

Tale of the Tape for Figueiredo vs Moreno

Fighter Deiveson Figueiredo Brandon Moreno
Age 34 28
Height 5’5’’ 5’7’’
Reach/Stance 68’’ Orthodox 70’’ Orthodox
Record 20-2-1 19-5-2
Submissions/TKO in UFC 3/4, 58% 3/1, 36%
Fighter Training Camp Henry Cejudo, Fight Ready Entram Gym, Team Elevation, Bang Muay Thai

Moreno is six-year younger than former champion Figueiredo. The average age of a UFC champion, with age, factored in per title defense, is 29. Age is a big factor for retaining the title as well, and most MMA athletes peak from 27 to 31. The lighter the weight class, the less likely it is for an older fighter to take and maintain the title.

For me, this stat weighs in heavily for this fight.

Moreno is the more physical fighter. He’s still developing skills and cross training, while Figueiredo is cross training for the first time in his pro career for this camp specifically. It feels like too little, too late.

Betting Odds for Figueiredo vs Moreno

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager
Deiveson Figueiredo Money Line +145, $1.45
Brandon Moreno Money Line -170, $0.59
Over 4 ½ Rounds +115,  $1.15
Under 4 ½ Rounds -145, $0.69

The Over/Under is placed at 4 ½ Rounds, and for good reason. This fight will see at least round three, save for any stunning upsets. Moreno doesn’t have the knockout power to finish Figueiredo in one punch, and I think Figueiredo did have that kind of power three years ago. As the former champion ages, we’ll see less lightning finishes and more long fights. I see this fight ending somewhere between round 3 and 5, making the over/under props useless for us.

Fight Analysis and Final Betting Pick

Figueiredo is banking on improved wrestling training at Fight Ready, however, his striking failed him in their last bout. If Moreno can recreate the striking from fight two, it doesn’t matter if Deiveson gives up less control time- though he could avoid an early submission.

Moreno is a fighter who’s not fully matured.

Each fight he brings new techniques and strengths, and if you look at just his last five fights, you see an entirely different fighter than the 2016 to mid 2019 Moreno. I pick Brandon Moreno at -170, a $59 payout per $100 wagered on a younger, more talented champion.


Michel Pereira vs Andre Fialho

Both of these welterweights are outside of the UFC top fifteen, but Pereira is on a three-fight winning streak after losing to Deigo Snachez via DQ in 2020. Fialho is new to the UFC, but has done well in UAE and Bellator.

Tale of the Tape for Pereira vs Fialho

Fighter Michel Pereira Andre Fialho
Age 28 27
Height 6’1’’ 6’0’’
Reach/Stance 73’’ Orthodox 74’’ Orthodox
Record 26-11, 2 NC 14-3, 1NC
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/1 0/0 (4 finishes in a row outside of UFC)
Fighter Training Camp Renzo Gracie Las Vegas, Rafael Alejarra, Scorpion Fighting System Sanford MMA

Pereira has the experience advantage and has faced tougher competition inside the UFC. Fialho has a better training environment at Sanford MMA. Sanford is home to several UFC champions.

SFS is a great camp:
But Pereira’s switch to Renzo Gracie Las Vegas introduced him to some more educated conditioning coaches and sparring partners like Jonny Walker.

While Sanford has produced better fighters overall, coach Rafael Alejarra will eventually go down as one of the better MMA coaches in the game.

Betting Odds for Pereira vs Fialho

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager
Pereira Money Line -270, $0.37
Fialho Money Line +230, $2.30
Over 2 ½ Rounds +120, $1.20
Under 2 ½ Rounds -150, $0.67

Fialho was a +240 underdog in his win over James Vick in 2021, as well as a +210 underdog in his loss to Chris Curitis. He’s breaking even on his wins and losses as an underdog coming into the UFC.

Pereira was an underdog in his win over Khaos Williams, but also a favorite in his losses to Connelly and Diego Sanchez (DQ loss.) Both fighters are a bit unpredictable based on the odds. Using Fialho’s record to analyze the Over/Under props isn’t useful because Pereira is much higher level than his past opponents.

The over feels like the right bet, with many of Pereira’s finishes coming in round three, and three of his six UFC bouts finding a decision. I would bet the over if I were forced to choose, but will likely use a fighters moneyline.

Fight Tape Analysis and Final Betting Pick

Periera has performed well in his last three bouts, giving Khaos Williams his only UFC loss to date.

Fialho relies on his power, finishing his last four opponents with strikes.

He defeated James Vick, who was in the UFC, but struggled to do anything standing, and if he couldn’t get the top position takedown, he couldn’t win. Fialho’s power pales in comparison to the striking of Khaos Williams, which is one of the main reasons I don’t see a Pereira knockout loss.

This bout has a litany of prop bets available, such as Pereira by points at +200, which is my top bet if you’re tentative to bet the lower-paying moneyline.

While there are a dozen or more round calling and method of victory props, without seeing what Fialho looks like at the UFC level, it’s difficult to place any money on these bets. Expect the best Pereira you’ve ever seen against Fialho.

Fialho is stiff on the feet, and a bit slow on the double leg. In a five-round fight, Filaho would have a chance. Instead, another spinning clinic is on the way from Pereira.


Cody Stamann vs Said Nurmaggomedov

Stamann comes off a two-fight losing streak to face Nurmagomedov, the 3-1 Dagistani fighter. Said was meant to be a shoe-in for the Bantamweight top fifteen in the UFC. Instead, he took a loss to Raoni Barcelos as a -111 favorite. Said looks to rebuild his career with another big finish.

Tale of the Tape for Stamman vs Nurmaggomedov

Fighter Cody Stamann Said Nurmaggomedov
Age 32 29
Height 5’6’’ 5’8’’
Reach/Stance 64’ Orthodox 70’’ Orthodox
Record 19-4-1 14-2
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/0 0/2
Fighter Training Camp Xtreme Couture DagFighter

Said has the majority of natural advantages, including a massive six-inch reach advantage. Cody’s wrestling is one of his best attributes, but getting inside range against Said is going to cause him to wade into some shots. Nurmaggomedov is more dangerous, with a 50% finish rate inside the UFC.

Comparing Fighter Camps

Xtreme Couture has developed multiple champions and has been around for over twenty years. With that kind of timeline, a gym can develop better methods of training and conditioning and attract good coaching.

DagFighter has produced over a dozen international champions.

Many high level Dagfighter athletes move to other camps, but Said seems happy to continue with DagFighter in his hometown until further notice. The camp is dangerous, with every pro capable of knockouts and submission victories.

Betting Odds for Stamman vs Nurmaggomedov

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager
Cody Stamman Money Line +162, $1.62
Said Nurmagomedov Money Line -187, $0.53
Over 1 ½ Rounds -500
Under 1 ½ Rounds +375

Stamman has three losses and one draw in the UFC. He was the underdog against Merab, Yadong, and Sterling frangin from +150 to +250. Said was the underdog in his win over Ricardo Ramos, but the favorite in his loss to Raoni Bracelos. The oddsmakers have been won twice in both fighters UFC careers so far.

Stamman has never been finished, which is why the over is at -500.

This $0.20 payout is good considering that Stamman is durable if he’s anything. Merab Dvalishvili put an absolute beating on him, and he never faded. He was also robbed blind in the Song Yadong fight, where he dominated the standing and grappling exchanges significantly. However, unless Said hits harder than anyone else in the division, we’ll see a three-round fight.

Fight Analysis and Final Betting Pick

Said has much better striking and a 70% takedown defense. In Said’s one loss, he was taken down twice out of five attempts by Barcelos, who’s takedown success is 56%. Cody’s takedown accuracy is 44%, but he lands an average 2.8 takedowns per fight.

While this should be a shut out for Said, I see an upset. Cody Stamann can’t be knocked out and Said can’t win this fight if it’s a ground exchange.

Expect Cody to look for the takedown early and often, with Said scrambling to develop the space to land big shots. Said will hit Cody, and hit him hard, but the decision will go to Stamman at +162.


Rodolfo Vieira vs Wellington Turman

These two fighters aren’t contenders, but are both coming off 1-1 records over their last two bouts in 2021. Vieira is a high-level jiu-jitsu competitor who turned to MMA in 2017. Truman’s been pro since 2014, amassing only two amateur wins in MMA and no boxing, BJJ, or kickboxing amateur experience. He jumped right into the pro ranks, joining the UFC after five years active.

Tale of the Tape for Vieira vs Turman

Fighter Rodolfo Vieira Wellington Turman
Age 32 25
Height 6’0’’ 6’0’’
Reach/Stance 73’’ Orthodox 72’’ Orthodox
Record 8-1 17-5
Submissions/TKO in UFC 3/0 0/0
Fighter Training Camp Grappling Fight Team, Fusion X-Cel Gile Ribeiro Team

Truman is seven years younger, and a black belt in BJJ under Gile Ribeiro. He’s certainly not on Vieira’s level, but as we saw with Anthony Hernandez, striking can change the outcome of a submission match up and act as an equalizer between two fighters with varying degrees of submission ability.

Gile Ribeiro is a good team, that’s given us Rogerio Bontorin, Augusto Sakai, and Karine Silva. However, they’re yet to produce any UFC contenders, fighters that have broken the top fifteen. Fusion X-Cel is Vieira’s new training academy, with Mike Perry, Jacare, and several other fighters from Bellator and ONE FC. This team should improve Vieira’s striking, but as a whole, I don’t understand what coaches or leaders are drawing these fighters together.

I would give Turman the advantage in this category as well.

Betting Odds for Vieira vs Turman

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager
Rodolfo Vieira Money Line -205, $0.49
Wellington Turman Money Line +175, $1.75
Over 1 ½ Rounds -145, $0.69
Under 1 ½ Rounds +115, $1.15
Vieira by Submission +105, $1.05
Wellington by Points +500, $5.00

Vieira has been the favorite in every UFC appearance to date, including his loss to Hernandez at -470. Wellington was the underdog in his loss to Silva but the favorite in his loss to Andrew Sanchez. Oddsmakers are 3-2 on calling Wellington victories.

The Over/Under is a difficult bet to call.
Wellington hasn’t ever been submitted, while Vieira comes off a third-round submission win. I would skip these props, as the fighters are too unpredictable in their performances. Vieira by submission is the right prop if you think he’ll win. It’s double his money line, and he only has submission victories to his name inside the UFC.

Wellington’s two UFC wins are via points, and he’s shown no evolution that would make me think he’ll perform otherwise.

Final Betting Pick

I see Vieira landing a shot that rocks Wellington, inside the clinch or on the ground. This will lead to his submission victory. Turman barely bested Alvey on very short notice, and hasn’t shown the wrestling he’ll need to get off his back versus Vieira.

Expect a grinding, submission-centered fight.

I pick the prop Vieira by submission at +105 for double your money!


Raoni Barcelos vs Victor Henry

UFC newcomer Henry takes on a strong favorite in Barcelos. Barcelos lost a fight of the night performance to Timur Valiev in a majority decision called wrong. He was on a five fight UFC winning streak and on his way to title contention. He looks to restart his title run by defeating Rizin’s Victor Henry.

Tale of the Tape for Barcelos vs Henry

Fighter Raoni Barcelos Victor Henry
Age 34 34
Height 5’7’’ 5’7’’
Reach/Stance 67’’ Orthodox 68’’ Switch
Record 16-2 21-5
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/2 0/0
Fighter Training Camp Rizzo RVT (Refit) UWF USA

The fighters are nearly evenly matched, with Barcelos having faced UFC level competition, and Henry coming out of LXC, Rizin and the Japanese MMA circuit. Over their last five bouts, Henry has more finishes, with all four wins coming by way of knockout or submission.

Comparing Fighter Camps

Henry is from UWF USA, the Josh Barnett lead camp in California.

UWF is having some trouble leveling up, as all of the fighters except Henry have lost bouts since 2019, many ending their career in 2019 losses. I see Henry as a fantastic addition to the UFC, but UWF will need to work to get him more UFC-level sparring partners or lose him to a bigger gym.

Rizzo RVT is a Brazilian gym of Pedro Rizzo, another classic UFC/Pride fighter.

Raoni is the only current UFC fighter in the gym. They have several LFA and Shooto level fighters. Both gyms could use some work in the sparring partner department, but Rizzo is more established as a high level MMA outfit.

Betting Odds for Barcelos vs Henry

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager
Barcelos Money Line -515, $0.19
Henry Money Line +390, $290
Over 2 ½ Rounds -115, $0.87
Under 2 ½ Rounds -115, $0.87

Barcelos has been the underdog twice in dual upsets with Said Nurmagomedov and Kurt Holobaugh. He’s a strong favorite, ranging from -210 to -1000 over Carlos Huachin Quiroz in 2019.

This is Victor’s first time showing any odds.

The Over/Under props are tough to call without seeing UFC stats for Henry. He’s finished many fighters early, but if Barcelos can outwrestle him, we’ll see a long fight.

Fight Analysis and Betting Pick

Victor Henry’s striking is built to set up his catch wrestling game. He fights with long leg kicks and a great right straight, but his head movement leaves something to be desired.

After watching Henry in the clench with Albert Morales, I expect Barcelos and his lifetime of wrestling to take top position. Henry will take risks, rolling for leg locks and spinning back fists. I see Raoni capitalizing on these opportunities.

Barcelos does a great job of managing range with footwork and should win striking exchanges and find top position against Henry. Raoni also has the habit of throwing some of the sneakiest headbutts in MMA, though he’s never been called on them. Bet Raoni Barcelos at -515 and take a parlay if you wagered on any of the ‘Fight to Round 2’ bets in the co-main and main events.


Ilia Topuria vs Charles Jourdain

This featherweight bout puts a rising star against a fighter near the end of his contract. Neither fighter has faced top fifteen competition, but if Ilia wins this bout a contender fight is likely for the undefeated prospect.  Jourdain was a last-minute replacement for Movsar Evloev who contracted Covid 19.

Tale of the Tape for Topuria vs Jourdain

Fighter Ilia Topuria Charles Jourdain
Age 25 26
Height 5’7’’ 5’9’’
Reach/Stance 69’’ Orthodox 69’’ Switch
Record 11-0 12-4-1
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/2 0/2
Fighter Training Camp Climent Club Eric Bertrand, Academie Pro Star MMA

Ilia is shorter and less experienced but has a 66% UFC finishing percentage to Jourdain’s 28%.

Climent Club is an MMA gym in Spain and while they’ve produced fantastic local talent, Ilia is by far the only fighter in a top-level promotion they’ve seen. Pro Star is a Canadian gym under Bertrand that has produced local champions and not much else, including dozens of amateur-level talent.

Both of these fighters will need to cross train as time goes on, and neither gains a training advantage.

Betting Odds for Topuria vs Jourdain

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager
Topuria Money Line -650, $0.15
Jourdain Money Line +425, $4.25
Over 1 ½ Rounds -130, $0.77
Under 1 ½ Rounds +100, $1.00

Topuria was originally a -135 against Evloev. His toughest UFC fight to date was a win over Youssef Zalala at +135, whom he handled easily.

Jourdain was the underdog against Desmond Green at +600 and Andre Fili at +191, losing both bouts. He did upset Dooho Choi as a +335 with a second-round TKO. Jourdain has been finished twice in the third round. If you respect Jourdain’s power more than I do and you’re going to skip on the Topuria money line, consider the Over 1 ½ Rounds prop, as the fight could be a late finish for either fighter.

I’ll be betting Ilia Topuria Money line at -650 and parlaying alongside my co-main ‘fight goes to round 2’ prop and a Barcelos win.

Michael Morales vs Trevin Giles

Morales is 1-0 for DWCS and looks to improve against Giles, a fighter with knockout power and questionable submission defense in the middleweight division.

Tale of the Tape for Morales vs Giles

Fighter Michael Morales Trevin Giles
Age 22 29
Height 6’0’’ 6’0’’
Reach/Stance 79’’ Orthodox 74’’ Orthodox
Record 12-0 14-3
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/0 0/3
Fighter Training Camp Entram, Xtreme Fitness Machala War Training Center

Morales is a young prodigy and a lanky individual. Giles doesn’t have the reach for today’s middleweight division but has still amassed three TKO wins.

Giles came up short versus Du Plessis in his last bout, and the two-inch reach advantage had him missing all but ten strikes over two rounds.

Neither fighter has a notable advantage in their original training camps, though Morales has moved to Entram gym to work with champion Brandon Moreno and other high level Mexican fighters, giving him the training advantage.

Betting Odds for Morales vs Giles and Betting Pick

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager
Morales Money Line -115, $0.87
Giles Money Line -105, $0.95
Over 2 ½ Rounds -180, $0.56
Under 2 ½ Rounds +150, $1.50

Giles was a +100 underdog in his last bout and opened as the underdog at +100 in this fight as well. Giles’ last upset was Krause at +100 in February 2020.

Morales was the underdog in his September 2021 bout, a victory we called in our blog. The Over/Under isn’t very useful until a fighter has had a few UFC bouts. UFC competition is different from any record outside the promotion.

Look to see Morales win another decision, picking apart Giles from the outside and staying too smart to engage with the heavy hitter. Michael Morales -115 is enough of a payout for this young phenom.

Jack Della Maddalena vs Pete Rodriguez

Fresh out of DWCS, Maddalena faces a UFC newcomer Rodriguez from iKon Fighting Federation in Mexico. Both fighters have records littered with striking finishes. This should be fun. This fight is in the Welterweight division.

Tale of the Tape for Maddalena vs Rodriguez

Fighter Jack Della Maddalena Pete Rodriguez
Age 25 25
Height 5’11’’ 5’9’’
Reach/Stance 73’’ Switch 71” Switch
Record 10-2 4-0
Submissions/TKO in Career 1/8 0/4
Fighter Training Camp Australia Regional Tucson BJJ, Dominate MMA

These fighters are evenly matched. It may appear that Jack has significantly more experience, but Pete had an extensive amateur career and was a BJJ competitor as well.

Jack does have more and higher level TKOs to his name.

Betting Odds for Maddalena vs Rodriguez

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager
Maddalena Money Line -335, $0.30
Rodriguez Money Line +275, $2.75
Over 1 ½ Rounds +115, $1.15
Under 1 ½ Rounds -145, $0.69

Maddalena is a strong favorite, with neither fighter having a serious odds history. He’s another one of the fighters we called to win in DWCS.

While I have faith in Maddalena:
I could see this being an early night. Ange shied away from Maddalena’s power, but I think Rodriguez will come out to meet it. Neither fighter has ever been knocked out, but both fighters have a string of first round finishes. I’m breaking my own rules here and taking the under on UFC newbies.

Bet the Under 1 ½ Rounds prop at -145 for a solid payout and some insurance against a Pete Rodriguez upset.

Tony Gravely vs Saimon Oliveira

This is a bantamweight matchup between two high-quality wrestlers. Gravely is coming off a loss to UFC undefeated Nathan Maness. He hopes to bounce back against high quality takedown artist Oliveira.

Tale of the Tape for Gravely vs Oliveira

Fighter Tony Gravely Saimon Oliveira
Age 30 30
Height 5’5’’ 5’4’’
Reach/Stance 69’’ Orthodox 72’’ Orthodox
Record 21-7 18-3
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/2 0/0
Fighter Training Camp American Top Team Astra Fight Team

These two are evenly matched, with Oliveira focusing primarily on submission fighting outside of the UFC,. Gravely has knockout power, but his submission skill is underutilized, averaging .6 attempts per fight with no submission victories in the UFC.

Gravely is at the better fight team, though Astra is a high quality team with many Bellator and ONE FC fighters.

Betting Odds and Pick for Gravely vs Oliveira

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager
Gravely Money Line -239, $0.42
Oliveira Money Line +204, $2.04
Over 2 ½ Rounds -130, $0.77
Under 2 ½ Rounds +100, $1.00

Gravely was the favorite over Maness and a +110 underdog against Brett Johns in his two UFC losses. Oliveira has only one other fight in his odds history, a -140 win at DWCS.

The Over/Under is a difficult call, with Oliveira’s takedowns, we could see a long fight, though either athlete has finishing power.

I see a Saimon Oliveira upset at +204. Look to double your money on a long, grindy decision win or an early submission from Saimon.

Silvana Gomez Juarez vs Vanessa Demopoulos

Juarez lost her UFC debut to Loopy Godinez in a comeback armbar early in the first round. Demopoulos is now 0-2 for the UFC, losing in DWCS and against JJ Aldrich. One of these female flyweights will see their first win!

Tale of the Tape for Juarez vs Demopoulos

Fighter Silvana Gomez Juarez Vanessa Demopoulos
Age 37 33
Height 5’3’’ 5’2’’
Reach/Stance 65’’ Orthodox 59’’ Orthodox
Record 10-3 6-4
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/0 0/0
Fighter Training Camp Entram Fight Ready

Demopoulos is younger, smaller, and training at a better gym for women’s MMA.

Entram is a fantastic gym, but Juarez is well past her athletic prime and has few women’s sparring partners.

Betting Odds for Juarez vs Demopoulos

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager
Juarez Money Line +115, $1.15
Demopoulos Money Line -135, $0.74
Over 2 ½ Rounds -200, $0.50
Under 2 ½ Rounds +160, $1.60

Demopoulos is the favorite for good reason. She has the wrestling skill and conditioning to beat Juarez. Outside of the UFC, Demopoulos has multiple submission wins that she’s been unable to display. Juarez is the right opponent to give Demopoulos her first UFC win. It’s also her first UFC fight as the favorite, and her first time as the favorite since her win over Cynthia Arceo in 2021.


Matt Frevola vs Genaro Valdez

This lightweight matchup shows conditioning machine Genaro Valdez up against Matt Frevola, a gatekeeper on a two-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape for Frevola vs Valdez

Fighter Matt Frevola Genaro Valdez
Age 31 30
Height 5’9’’ 5’9’’
Reach/Stance 71’’ Orthodox 72’’ Orthodox
Record 8-3-1 10-0
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/0 0/1
Fighter Training Camp Serra-Longo Entram Gym

The stats are nearly the same, other than Valdez’s finishing percentage. In fights outside the UFC, Valdez has finished every opponent he’s faced, going pro in 2016. Frevola has struggled to finish any UFC fighters, and has been knocked out twice.

Serra-Longo is a strong gym, but Entram produces more and more champions in the 135-170 pounds range. I expect Genaro to be very good.

Betting Odds for Frevola vs Valdez

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager
Frevola Moneyline -192, $0.52
Valdez Money Line +167, $1.67
Over 2 ½ Rounds +110, $1.10
Under 2 ½ Rounds -140, $0.71

Valdez is somehow the underdog, despite Frevola’s string of losses. In his only other fight with odds, Valdez was a -820. Frevola was a -150 favorite in his last loss, and a +500  in his loss to Arman Tsarukyan.

I see an upset, and there’s no reason to even think about the props.

Expect Valdez to bring home Matt Frevola’s chin after some grappling exchanges. Take the easy $1.67 per dollar wager on this future contender, and think about coupling it with a strong parlay.


Kay Hansen vs Jasmine Jasudavicius

In our opening bout, we see UFC 1-1 women’s flyweight Kay Hansen against recent DWCS winner Jasudavicius, another of our correct DWCS calls.

Tale of the Tape for Hansen vs Jasudavicius

Fighter Kay Hansen Jasmine Jasudavicius
Age 22 32
Height 5’2’’ 5’7’’
Reach/Stance 63’’ Orthodox 68’’ Orthodox
Record 7-4 6-1
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/0 0/0
Fighter Training Camp 10th Planet jiu Jitsu Buena Park Niagara Top Team

Outside of the UFC, Jasmine is a finisher. She has several TKO and submission wins. She’s taller, and that five-inch reach advantage will make it tough for Hansen to find the takedown. Hansen is a strawweight fighting at flyweight, and Jasmine cuts significant pounds to get to 125. Both of their gyms are of moderate level and have produced no other UFC caliber fighters.

Betting Odds for Hansen vs Jasudavicius

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager
Hansen Money Line -225, $0.44
Jasudavicius Money Line +190, $1.90
Over 2 ½ Rounds -265, $0.38
Under 2 ½ Rounds +205, $2.05

Jsudavicius is on sale as far as I’m concerned. She’s a killer striker, and Hansen simply doesn’t have the striking expertise under her belt to keep up.

I fully expect Hansen to get frustrated at some point in the bout and attempt a guard pull.

I see a win for the newcomer and a long night for the favorite. Bet Jasmine Jasudavicius for $190 per $100 wagered.


UFC 270 Full Card Preview Wrap Up

I see plenty of underdog wins on January 22nd. This could be one of the most lucrative cards for sports bettors we’ve had in a year or more.

The odds are close:
With some fighters that I believe should be stronger favorites nearly even with their competition. UFC is feeding plenty of DWCS talent to middle-of-the-road fighters, and we’re seeing them come in as underdogs. I’m not sure what the loss of faith is in the DWCS process, but oddsmakers simply aren’t rating them high enough.

Expect this card to cause a shift in the value of DWCS fighters moving forward.

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Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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