UFC 271 Prelim Betting Picks, Latest Odds and Fight Breakdowns

Adesanya V Whittaker 2 UFC 271 Prelims

These ten fights cover all UFC 271 preliminary bouts on ESPN+. We’ve crunched the stats and  gathered the odds to offer our top betting picks and fight breakdowns. You can check out our Main Card coverage and predictions here.

Andrei Arlovski vs Jared Vanderaa

Former heavyweight champion Arlovski returns against the 2-2 Vanderaa. Arlovski has become the UFC’s gatekeeper, determining if fighters will get a shot at the top fifteen title contenders. Vanderaa is exciting but inconsistent, getting knocked out twice, while winning a fight of the night and first round knockout debut. 

Tale of the Tape for Arlovski vs Vanderaa

Fighter Andrei Arlovski  Jared Vanderaa 
Age 42 29
Height 6’3’’ 6’4’’
Reach/Stance 77’’ Orthodox  80’’ Orthodox 
Record 32-20 12-6
Submissions/TKO in UFC 2/10 0/1
Fighter Training Camp American Top Team  Team Quest, Dan Henderson Athletic Center 
Last Weigh In 240 pounds  265 pounds

Arlovski is a decade older and a bit smaller than his opponent. Vanderaa has had only a fraction of the 22 bouts in the UFC that Arlovski has racked up, starting his career in 2000. 
Arlovski must be one of the UFC’s longest active fighters. He was champion in 2005 and hasn’t scored a finish since 2015 when he was 35. 

Comparing Fighter Camps

Both Fighters are at world class camps. ATT has struggled lately, including the loss of one of their greatest champions Amanda Nunes. It’s tough to tell what the training climate is like. 
Vanderaa is at Team Quest and Henderson’s new gym, both sporting a high cage wrestling pedigree that Venderaa doesn’t seem interested in using. He’s gone for only one takedown, dropping Harry Hunsucker leading up to his first round TKO win at -270. 

Betting Odds and Odds History for Arlovski vs Vanderaa

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager 
Arlovski Money Line -132
Vanderaa Money Line +112
Over 2 ½ Rounds -220
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +180

Arlovski is the favorite despite the thirteen year age gap. He’s won his last two fights, which were essentially kickboxing matches with Carlos Felipe at +116 and Chase Sherman at +100. 
Vanderaa has been the underdog for his last three fights, ranging from +165 to +440. He defeated Tafa as a +165 underdog. 

Over Under Props for Arlovski vs Vanderaa

Arlovski has been seeing nothing but decision wins for seven years. Vanderaa has seen one fight of the night decision with Tafa, a fight where he showed a willingness to kickbox for the entire bout, making no effort to clench or move the fight to the ground despite his massive weight advantage over Tafa. He has an even greater weight advantage over Arlovski, one that I could see shortening the fight if he’s willing to go for the takedown. 
Still, Arlovski seems to have found a niche seeking out decision wins over lower level fights. I see this fight going to decision, but not enough to put money on the Over 2 ½ Rounds bet. 

Fight Prediction and Breakdown for Arlovski vs Vanderaa

While Arlovski is on a winning streak, it’s tough to bet against him. Vanderaa is a black belt in BJJ that refuses to use his high level of submission skill, but I won’t be surprised if we finally see some clench work from the much larger Vanderaa. 
Our betting pick is Jared Vanderaa at +112. He’s shown more knockout power, and we can’t discount the effect of Arlovski’s age and size against a young heavyweight with proven knockout power. 


Roxanne Modafferi vs Casey O’Neill

Modafferi is back after a tentative retirement. She’s lost her last two bouts in the UFC, both in 2021, and is facing an undefeated prospect in Casey O’Neill. O’Neil is 3-0 in the UFC, finishing each bout via submission or knockout. 

Tale of the Tape for Modafferi vs O’Neill

Fighter Roxanne ‘The Happy Warrior’ Modafferi Casey ‘King’ O’Neill
Age 39 24
Height 5’7’’ 5’6’’
Reach/Stance 69’’ Orthodox  69’’ Orthodox 
Record 25-20 8-0
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/1 1/2

Casey is fifteen years younger than her counterpart. She finished each UFC bout in dramatic fashion, gaining a knockout of the night bonus in her last bout against Antonia Shechenko. 
This match up is almost absurd, especially considering Modafferi’s UFC record of 4-7. 

Betting Odds and Odds History for Modafferi vs O’Neill

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager 
Modafferi Money Line +300
O’Neill Money Line -400
Over 2 ½ Rounds -210
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +170
O’Neill by TKO +400
O’Neill by Submission  +600
O’Neill inside the Distance  +200

O’Neil should be a much stronger favorite, but Modafferi does have a tendency to upset favorites. She’s been the underdog in every UFC appearance. Modefferi’s last time as favorite was her 2011 Cage Warriors bout with Rosi Sexton prior to her time on The Ultimate Fighter. 
Modafferi has upset fighters like Andrea Lee at +240, and each of her four UFC wins have been upsets. 
O’Neill was the underdog against Lara Procopio, whom she submitted in round three. Her two other second round knockout wins were both as the favorite.

Prop Betting for Modafferi vs O’Neil 

There are seven betting markets for this bout, but we’re steering clear of many longshot bets, such as round calling. 
The over is a tough bet with O’Neill’s history of finishing fights quickly. Modafferi’s last eight bouts have gone to decision, but Casey is a special kind of fighter. I see a possibility of multiple finishes, though Modafferi has never been finished with strikes, and her last  submission loss was in 2009.
While I want to bet O’Neill inside the distance, Roxanne is a crafty survivor. I’d bet the Over 2 ½ Rounds if I were forced to choose a prop. 

Fight Prediction and Breakdown for Modafferi vs O’Neill

Not exacatly what I want to hear from my betting pick. Too satisfied, not enough desire for greatness.
Modafferi has one main issue: power. She gets bullied by nearly every fighter in the octagon. Her knockdown of Maycee Barber was a thing of beauty in an otherwise boring fight. She’s truly a mixed martial artist, and despite a lack of wrestling background, scores 1.3 takedowns per bout, reserved for strikers like Andrea Lee, who she took down four times for a control focused decision win. 

Casey O’Neill has the kind of ground striking that most fighters can’t handle. It’s elbow focused and top heavy, showing no signs of looking for submission work unless it’s forced on her. 

I don’t think Modafferi can avoid being on the bottom in this fight. 

Our betting pick goes to Casey O’Neill at -400, and we’ll be looking for the right fight to couple with this one in a parlay.


UFC 271 Prelims Top Pick: Alex Perez vs Matt Schnell

Alex Perez is finally returning after losing a title fight to Deiveson Figueiredo in 2020. Schnell is coming off an overturned 2021 bout with Rogerio Bontorin. Bontroin was suspended for ‘tainted supplements’ after testing positive for PEDs after his win. 
This will be a high paced flyweight bout between two fighters with submission of the night bonuses to their name. 

Tale of the Tape for Perez vs Schnell 

Fighter Alex Perez  Matt ‘Danger’ Schnell
Age 29 32
Height 5’6’’ 5’8’’
Reach/Stance 65’’ Orthodox  70’’ Orthodox 
Record 24-6 15-5, 1 NC
UFC Record  7-2 5-3, 1 NC
Submissions/TKO in UFC 3/2 2/0
Fighter Training Camp Team Oyama Renzo Gracie Lake Houston

Perez is younger, but gives up height and reach to Schnell. Schnell’s UFC finishing percentage is 25% compared to Perez’s 55%. 
Schnell’s reach advantage is muted by his tendency to get knocked out and general lack of striking technique. Schnell gets hit with an average 4.1 strikes per fight minute, a full strike above Perez’s 3.08. Perez has been knocked out by former champion Joseph Benavidez and no other fighters inside his career. 

Comparing Fighter Camps

Oyama is a Californian team home to multiple UFC contenders including Marlon Vera and Carla Esparza. They’ve done well in 2021-2022 with wins from Brent Primus and six other top level fighters. 
Renzo Gracie Lake Houson has no other fighters on the UFC roster and few other quality sparring partners. Schnell formerly trained at American Top Team, but appears to have switched camps for this bout, staying home with his children. Not a good sign. 

Betting Odds and Odds History for Perez vs Schnell 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager 
Perez Money Line -400
Schnell Money Line +300
Over 2 ½ Rounds -110
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -120

Perez was the underdog in his Figueiredo loss and was upset by Benavidez at -120. He has one upset win over Eric Shelton at +120. Perez has only lost to title holders inside the UFC, and ranges from -120 to – 400. 
Schnell was the underdog in his win over Nam at +100, as well as upsetting Espinosa, Louis Smolka, and Naoki Inoue. His only win in the UFC as a favorite was against Marco Beltran in 2017. 
I see no reason to bet the over under props, as both fighters are highly volatile, finishing bouts with submission suddenly, despite Schnell seeing decisions in four of his nine UFC appearances. Perez has mostly finishes in both wins and losses, but with two years off, it’s difficult to determine how ring rust will play a factor in his finishing ability. 

Fight Prediction and Breakdown for Perez vs Schnell 

Schnell has struggled against fighters with power and takedowns. Perez has both. Schnell’s 33% takedown defense won’t hold up against Perez’s average three takedowns per bout, landing as many as five per fight as he did against eric Shelton. 
Expect a win from Alex Perez at -400 for a big UFC return at flyweight. 


William Knight vs Maxim Grishin

Griffin is back after just ninety days. He faced Alonzo Menifield in December 2021, and now he’s up against the 1-2 in the UFC Maxim Grishin. Both Light heavyweights have solid chins and knockout power. 

Tale of the Tape for Knight vs Grishin

Fighter William ‘Knightmare’ Knight  Maxim ‘Maximus’ Grishin
Age 33 37
Height 5’10’’ 6’3’’
Reach/Stance 73’’ Orthodox  78’’ Orthodox 
Record 11-2 31-9-2
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/3 0/1

Knight is younger, but gives up significant height and reach to Grishin. Knight has a 50% UFC finishing ratio across six fights, with only one finish coming late in the third round. 
Neither fighter has been knocked out in the UFC. 
In his only loss, Knight gave up eight takedowns to Da-Un Jung. Compare that with Grishin’s one takedown across three fights and three total attempts. 

Betting Odds and Odds History for Knight vs Grishin

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager 
Knight Money Line +145
Grishin Money Line -170
Over 2 ½ Rounds -140
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +110

Grishin is the underdog mostly for his size. At 5’10’’, he is a ridiculously small light heavyweight. However in his last two wins, he gave up similar height and reach disadvantages. 
Knight upset Menifield at +150 and Camur at +125. He’s been the underdog in each of his UFC bouts, except against Fabio Cherant. He’s won all but one, going 5-1 in the UFC. 
Grishin did very well in the PFL. He was the favorite for the majority of his PFL bouts ranging from -236 to -650 in wins. However, he’s struggled in his UFC transition that I believe came too late in his career. 
With 42 career bouts at 37 years old, Grishin is simply less durable than his PFL days. He’s been the underdog in his two losses, beating Antigulov at -300. Even that fight was competitive. 

Fight Prediction and Breakdown for Knight vs Grishin

Grishin is going to look for long striking combinations, but will find Knight’s aggressive style burdensome. Knight has a high quality check hook, and Grishin enters the pocket with his hands down. Expect this to play a factor. Our betting pick is William Knight at +145, and I’m predicting a knockout but not betting on it.


Mana Martinez vs Ronnie Lawrence

This is a fight meant to build up Ronnie Lawrence. The man is a takedown machine, so let’s see if Mana can handle The Heat!

Tale of the Tape for Martinez vs Lawrence

Fighter Ronnie ‘The Heat’  Lawrence Mana ‘Manaboi’ Martinez
Age 29 25
Height 5’8’’  5’10’’
Reach/Stance 68’’ Switch  70’’ Orthodox 
Record 7-1 9-2
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/1 0/0

Mana carries all natural advantages including experience. Ronnie is a switch stance fighter, which is common for wrestlers. Most childhood wrestlers are taught to shoot with their dominant hand in front, then to box with their opposite hand lead, this makes Lawrences stance changes worth following for his opponents.
Ronnie’s one loss outside of the UFC came by Bellator’s Steve Garcia. Steve is now 1-1 in the UFC. 

Betting Odds and Odds History for Martinez vs Lawrence

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager 
Martinez Money Line +250
Lawrence Money Line -300
Over 2 ½ Rounds -185
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +155
Martinez by Decision +550
Lawrence by TKO  +275

Martinez was the favorite in his DWCS loss to Drako Rodriguez at -112, then the favorite again in his win over Guido Cannetti at -275. Lawrence puts him in the underdog position for the first time in his career. 
Ronnie was the underdog at +255 in his DWCS win, and -160 favorite in his knockout victory over Cachero. 

Prop Betting Analysis

Mana’s last fight went to a decision victory. He’s never been knocked out, even in his amatuer career. His only finish loss was to Rodriguez in DWCS. Lawrence sees an even mixture of decision wins and knockout finishes outside of the UFC. 
The props are difficult to call. I’d bet the Under 2 ½ Rounds before I bet any other prop on the card. 

Fight Prediction and Breakdown for Martinez vs Lawrence

Lawrence’s takedowns and ground striking are very difficult to train for. Martinez has moderate wrestling, but showed few real grappling skills at Lawrences level. 
While Lawrence puts on the kind of frantic pace that has me concerned about counter submissions from Mana, I’ll be betting Ronnie Lawrence at -300, and I’ll be looking to Parlay this bout with the Casey O’Neill fight. 


Alexander Hernandez vs Renato Moicaño

Hernandez is coming off a stunning first round TKO, and Renato a second round submission victory. Both fighters are 3-3 over their last six in the UFC in this even match up. We have a classic striker versus grappler fight on the line, keeping in mind that Hernandez has never been submitted inside the UFC. 

Tale of the Tape for Hernandez vs Moicaño

Fighter Alexander ‘The Great Ape’ Hernandez Renato Moicaño 
Age 29 32
Height 5’9’’ 5’11’’
Reach/Stance 72’’ Orthodox  72’’ Orthodox 
Record 13-4 15-4-1
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/3 4/0
UFC Losses by Sub/TKO 0/2 1/3
Fighter Camp Factory X American Top Team, Constrictor Team 

The stats are mostly even, with Moicano having slightly more UFC bouts than Alex. There is a start difference in the method of finishes, and in the method of losses. Renato has only been finished in his losses, he’s never seen a decision in the UFC. 

Comparing Fighter Camps

Hernandez is a brown belt in BJJ and a fighter out of Factory X alongside Anthony Smith, Brandon Royval and other contenders. Factory X as a gym has occasional issues with submission fighters. Each of the fighters I’ve listed have submission losses in their career. However factory X is having a hell of a year, with Smith, Royval and multiple other UFC fighters winning their last bout. 

Renato is at the prestigious ATT is home to John Lineker, Gleison Tibau and many UFC alumni. Renato’s former team Constrictor, is home to many of the UFC’s best submission stylists. I think Factory X is the camp to be at in the UFC today, and give Hernandez a slight advantage. 

Betting Odds and Odds History for Hernandez vs Moicaño

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager 
Hernandez Money Line +145
Moicano Money Line -170
Over 2 ½ Rounds +105
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -135

Hernandez is the underdog, similar to this +150 loss to Drew Dober. He’s upset the favored only once, as the +360 underdog against Beneil Dariush in his UFC debut. 
Moicano has been upset as the favorite against Jose Aldo at -110, Chan Sung Jung at -213, and Brian Ortega at -183. 
Moicano is up from his +123 underdog loss against Rafael Fiziev, followed by a -235 win over Jai Herbert last June. 

Hernandez is frustrated with his own lack of star power. I feel it could help him desire to make the fight more exciting, to push for a finsih.

Prop Bet Analysis

Moicano hasn’t seen the third round since his 2018 bout with Kattar, seven fights ago. Hernandez has seen three decisions inside the UFC and five first round finishes. Hernandez UFC bouts have a 62% chance of ending by round 2. Moicano’s have a 77% chance. The real key is Moicano’s jaw. I firmly believe that he could get finished early by Hernandez, who’s power and technique are still developing at Factory X.

This bout comes down to Hernandez’s takedown defense versus Moicano’s striking defense. Moicano took only seven strikes from Jai Herbert, but that was because he obtained the takedown. Rafael Fiziev knocked him out with only 21 strikes because he was able to defend the takedown. 

Hernandez has a wide stance and wrestling background. He hasn’t been taken down since his loss to Donald Cerrone, which was an all around beating. 
Our betting pick is the Under 2 ½ Rounds Prop. I think Hernandez can finish the fight with ease, but Moicano’s tendency to get the takedown early and look for first round submissions without even throwing strikes is too much to ignore.  


Carlos Ulberg vs Fabio Cherant

Ulberg put on a blistering pace for his first two bouts, going 1-1 while landing an average 15 strikes per minute. Cherant is 0-3 in the UFC, getting yet another opportunity aftering being knocked out twice and submitted once. It’s clear the UFC wants to build up another Ulberg fight, so they plan on feeding him an easy win in Cherant. 
However, Fabio is undefeated outside of the UFC. Maybe he’s shaking off the octagon shock to show us what he’s got in this fight. 

Tale of the Tape for Ulberg vs Cherant 

Fighter Carlos ‘Black Jag’ Ulberg Fabio ‘Water Buffalo’ Cherant 
Age 31 27
Height 6’4’’ 6’1’’
Reach/Stance 77’’ Orthodox  74’’ Southpaw
Record 5-1 7-3
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/1 0/0
Fighter Training Camp City Boxing  Sanford MMA

Ulberg is slightly older, but carries all other advantages, including a better finishing percentage and a longer amatuer career, including kickboxing experience. Sanford MMA is one of the best schools in the nation for blended fighters, but Ulberg has been training alongside Israel Adesanya for this camp, and Cherant hasn’t gone for a takedown in any of his three fights. It’s clear he favors striking, but Ulberg’s level is so far beyond his technically and Sanford is the right school to develop a mix of grappling and striking but not to develop a kickboxing centered game. 

It’s odd, because outside of the UFC, Cherant is a submission specialist with five first and second round submission wins. I’m confused at what he’s trying to do here. 

Betting Odds and Odds History for Ulberg vs Cherant

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager 
Ulberg Money Line -260
Cherant Money Line +220
Over 2 ½ Rounds +110
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -140
Ulberg via Knockout or DQ  -150

The odds makers agree with my initial analysis. Ulberg has hovered around -200 for his DWCS appearance and UFC bouts. Cherant has fluctuated from -132 to +300 against Aleksa Camur. He won twice as the favorite in LFA in 2020-2021, which helped to set up his UFC return. 

Prop Bet Analysis

The Under 2 ½ Rounds prop is almost too good to pass up. All five UFC bouts have ended early. Each fighter has both knockout power and issues taking punches. Ulberg’s last fight ended in a knockout eleven months ago. 

Fight Prediction and Breakdown for Ulberg vs Cherant

Cherant has untapped submission skills that could surprise Ulberg. The City Boxing camp doesn’t seem to be interested in many BJJ training sessions, focusing on counter wrestling and cage defense. 
This fight will either be a Cherant submission win or an Ulberg TKO, and as a result I’m looking at the Under 2 ½ Rounds prop bet. 
I’m going to tread lightly with this one. Cherant may want to win a decision to stay in the UFC, utilizing his takedowns to grind down Ulberg. Do your best to avoid any paralys for this pick. 


UFC 271 Prelims Top Pick: Aj Dobson vs Jacob Malkoun

Both of these fighters are coming off wins, and both fighters have high quality grappling. Dobson is fresh off a DWCS win in September, while Malkoun hasn’t fought since last April. 

Tale of the Tape for Dobson vs Malkoun 

Fighter Aj Dobson Jacob ‘Mamba’ Malkoun 
Age 30 26
Height 6’1’’ 5’9’’
Reach/Stance 76’’ Orthodox  73’’ Orthodox
Record 6-0, 1 NC 5-1
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/0 0/0
Fighter Training Camp Carlson Gracie Ohio, Westside Barbell Gracie BJJ, Camden Valley ZooBJJ, others 

Dobson stunned with a powerful DWCS win, showing off his athleticism in a dominant win over Hashem Arkagha. Dobson is bigger and more experienced than Malkoun, sporting an impressive amatuer record. 

Dobson trains at the notorious lifting gym Westside Barbell, and has incorporated BJJ into his wrestling background for this camp specifically. Malkoun seems to piece together a camp out of his local gyms in Camden. 

Betting Odds and Odds History for Dobson vs Malkoun

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager 
Dobson Money Line -115
Malkoun Money Line -105
Over 2 ½ Rounds +115
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -145

Dobson is the favorite for the second time. His only other bout with odds was his -135 DWCS appearance. 
Malkoun has been the underdog for three fights running, losing to Hawes and defeating Alhassan at +260 after winning eight takedowns in their three round fight. 

Prop Betting Analysis

Oddsmakers don’t see this fight going the distance. Dobson has finished all but one fight in his professional career, while Malkoun has finished two of his career fights via TKO and three by decision. 
I could see this bout going the distance if Malkoun turns out to be the better wrestler technically.  

Fight Prediction and Breakdown for Dobson vs Malkoun

I don’t want to see Malkoun exchanging with Dobson. He’s the better boxer, and needs to sit on the outside and use his jab, which will be difficult with his reach disadvantage. 
Dobson’s power is difficult to deal with. Inside the bodylock he doesn’t push to the cage, he simply drives fighters to the ground. 
Malkoun reaches for takedowns in a way that drops his hands. His takedowns are good, but he belongs at welterweight. He’s too small to consistently takedown Dobson. 
Our betting pick is AJ Dobson at -115. He’ll probably finish the fight, but at some point Dobson will find a fighter who gasses him out with the right defense, so we’ll avoid the Under. 


Douglas Silva de Andrade vs Sergey Morozov

Our bantamweight matchup includes two exciting fighters caught just outside of the top fifteen. Both fighters are 1-1 in their last two. Andrade has fought the who’s who of the bantamweight division, including Rob Font, Petr Yan, Marlon Vera, and Renan Baroa. 

Tale of the Tape for Andrade vs Morozov 

Fighter Douglas Silva de Andrade ‘D Silva’ Sergey Morozov
Age 36 32
Height 5’7’’  5’6’’
Reach/Stance 68’’ Orthodox  67’’ Orthodox 
Record 27-4-0, 1 NC 17-4
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/2 0/0
Fighter Training Camp NFT Castanhal  Erkin Kush

Douglas is slightly bigger, older and more experienced than Sergey. He has far more UFC experience, but has struggled in his last six fights. Douglas was undefeated until he came to the UFC.
Sergey comes from Erkin Kush, the Kazakhstani gym that has now bought the UFC three fighters, including recent addition Shavkat Rhakmonov. Douglas’s team NFT Castanhal has little information online, and no real presence outside of Brazil. 

Betting Odds and Odds History for Andrade vs Morozov

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager 
Silva de Andrade Money Line +170
Morozov Money Line -200
Over 2 ½ Rounds -190
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +160
Silva de Andrade TKO or DQ +500
Morozov by Points +130
Goest the Distance ‘No’ +135

Silva was the underdog in his last few losses to Lerone Murphy at +275 and Petr Yan at +290. He upset Marlon Vera in 2018 at +165, but was the favorite in his last two wins. 
Morozov was the underdog in both UFC appearances, losing to Nurmagomedov at +450 and upsetting Khalid Taha at +125. 

Prop Betting Analysis

Morozov has gone the distance a number of times outside of his UFC career. His pro debut was in 2008, so it’s fair to say he’s evolved since then, but both of these fighters are prone to lucky knockout strikes. While I feel Morozov by points is his best prop, I wouldn’t count on it. 
The Over 2 ½ Rounds prop feels right, considering Andrade’s history of late third round finishes and decisions against high level fighters. 
In his career Morozov has been submitted twice and knocked out once. Both fighters have been too inconsistent to consider a prop bet. 

Fight Prediction and Breakdown for Andrade vs Morozov

Watching Andrade’s Petry Yan fight is a good look at what’s possible for him. He catches Yan often, especially with looping shots from the outside. Few fighters can stand with Yan and look anything but ridiculous. Andrade used a successful head movement, but it was Yan who sought takedowns. 
In Movrozov’s last win he looked snappy, and his counter wrestling and ground striking were key to his decision victory. Taha’s striking isn’t on Yan’s level, but it was enough to see that Morozov is a more technical boxer than Andrade- he’s just not as powerful. 
Our final betting pick is Silva de Andrade at +170. He’s huge at bantamweight, and should be able to bully his way through many of Morozov’s techniques. 


Jeremiah Wells vs Blood Diamond

Our first bout of the evening is the returning knockout artist Jeremiah Wells versus UFC first timer Blood Diamond. Diamond is a partner for Izzy Adesanya. He’s 3-0 in MMA and an experienced professional kickboxer. 

Tale of the Tape for Wells vs Diamond

Fighter Jeremiah Wells Blood Diamond 
Age 35 33
Height 5’9’’ 5’11’’
Reach/Stance 74’’ Switch  76’’ Switch
Record 9-2-1 3-0
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/1 Debut 
Fighter Training Camp Daniel Gracie BJJ, Xtreme Evolution MMA, others  City Boxing 

Diamond has every natural advantage, including a wide spread kickboxing career of 51-14-0. Diamond trains with Adesanya, a camp that has had issues with grappling. They’ll be facing Wells, the Daniel Gracie black belt who scored a second round KO over Warlley Alves in June of last year. 
Wells has two submission wins in his career, but has preferred striking and ground striking over submission finishes. This will be a fight that tests Wells’ takedowns, because Blood Diamond is a high quality kickboxer. 

Betting Odds and Odds History for Wells vs Diamond at UFC 271 Prelims

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager 
Wells Money Line -235
Diamond Money Line +200
Over 1 ½ Rounds +140
Under 1 ½ Rounds  -170
Wells by TKO +225
Wells by Submissions +175
Diamond by TKO  +300

The oddsmakers see a short fight, and for good reason. Both fighters have knockout power, both fighters have been knocked out, and we don’t even know if Diamond can grapple yet. 
Wells has had two bout cancellations in the past year, both as the underdog versus Tim Means and Jake matthwes. He was the underdog winner over Warlley Alves and a long running favorite for CES MMA and CFFC. 
Diamond has no MMA odds history to date, and there aren’t many kickboxing shows that carry online odds records. 

Prop Betting Analysis

The oddsmakers think Wells has a strong chance of submission victory, and for good reason. Diamond has some BJJ training, and has only worked with City Boxing on takedown defense and submission defense. He’s only been active in MMA three years, and a Wells submission win triples your money line payout. Diamond’s submission win was over Hyun Min Hwang, and lost to Diamond in his only MMA bout. 

I’m steering clear of the over under, set to go off at the 2:30 of the second round. It’s just not enough time. I’d pick the Wells by Submission prop if any. If you think Diamond is going to win, you may as well bet the TKO prop. He won’t win via decision, it’s just too likely that he’ll end up losing rounds to control time. 

Fight Prediction and Breakdown for Wells vs Diamond

Wells didn’t demonstrate his takedowns against Alves due to an early slip/knockdown. He worked to grind Warley down for the entire first round. 
Diamond hasn’t fought many decent wrestlers. Hwang, the fighter Diamond submitted, practically gave Diamond his back during a failed throw. 
Our UFC 271 betting pick is Jeremiah Wells at -235. I think he has all the right tools to put Blood Diamond down early. I’ll be hoping the Wells camp doesn’t encourage him to stand with Diamond for no reason at all. 


Back Up Fights for UFC 271 Prelims

These two bouts are with fighters that could fill in for main card bouts. If fighters are injured, they’ll jump in. If a whole fight is scrapped, you’ll see one of these bouts fill in the blank spot for last minute betting!

Mark Madsen +145 vs Vinc Pichel -175

Madsen is 3-0 in the UFC, taking a big step up in competition with a possible short notice fight with Pichel. Guida lost to Madsen in his last bout, with Madsen displaying more striking skills and only 1 total takedown. 

Pichel is 3-0 in his last three, but the takedown was necessary in almost every win. I see an upset if Madsen faces Pichel, with Madsen winning some stand up exchanges but taking home the fight off ground control. 

Ed Herman +260 vs Maxim Grishin -350

Herman lost his last bout to Alonzo Meinfield after a three fight winning streak 2019-2020. However, Herman is over 40 and I can’t imagine he has too many more good camps in him. Herman is more skilled than Grishin, but Grishin still has knockout power that Herman seems to have lost. Expect a Grishin win in this battle of aging contenders. 


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Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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