UFC 272: Covington vs Masvidal Full Card Betting Preview

UFC 272 Sat March Silver UFC Background

Our UFC 272 betting preview covers all thirteen fights, offering betting picks, the latest odds, and a prop bet analysis for each fight. Place your bets before the fight airs, March 5th 2022 at 10:00 PM ET on ESPN+ PPV. 

To place your bet on, click on our place bet now buttons below any bout. 

Colby Covington vs Jorge Masvidal 

We’ve covered this bout in our Main Event pick, with details on the top prop bets, and a fight analysis that goes much further than our betting preview. 

The tension feels as real as it ever has between these two Welterweight contenders.
Covington is the better grappler, landing sixty UFC career takedowns, and Masvidal is a sucker for losing via control time, again and again. 

Tale of the Tape for Masvidal vs Covington

Fighter Jorge ‘Gamebred’ Masvidal  Colby ‘Chaos’ Covington
Age 37 33
Height 5’11’’ 5’11’’
Reach/Stance 74’’ Orthodox  72’’ Orthodox 
Record 35-15 16-3
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/7 2/3
Fighter Training Camp American Top Team MMA Masters 
Losses via Sub/TKO in UFC 0/1 1/1

Masvidal is 37, making him one of the oldest top five contenders in any division. Covington’s only losses are a fluke guillotine and his matches with Usman. 

“This is just a personal rivalry. I didn’t care about the money… he’s been holding it off as long as he could. He has to take this losing paycheck.”- Colby Covington

Betting Odds and Odds History for Masvidal vs Covington 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Masvidal Money Line +275
Covington Money Line -325
Over 4 ½ Rounds -155
Under 4 ½ Rounds  +125

Our betting pick is Colby Covington’s money line. It pays out at $0.31 per dollar wagered. Don’t miss this win from a fighter who even the champ could barely put away. You may not like him, but that’s no reason to miss out on a payday. 


Rafael Dos Anjos vs Renato Moicano 

Moicano jumps in on five days notice to fight Dos Anjos. He’s won his last two fights, and three of his last four. Moicano, who mainly fought at featherweight, agreed to a catch weight for this fight, presumably because he can’t make the 155 pound cut. 

Dos Anjos cut to 155 after losing to TUF winner Michael Chiesa. Four of his last five bouts at welterweight were losses, and the former title contender had to make a change. 

Tale of the Tape for Dos Anjos vs Moicano 

Fighter Rafael Dos Anjos  Renato Moicano 
Age 37 32
Height 5’8’’ 5’11’’
Reach/Stance 70’’ Southpaw 72’’ Orthodox 
Record 30-13 16-4-1
Submissions/TKO in UFC 4/4 5/0
UFC Losses via Sub/TKO 0/3 1/3

Dos Anjos is the older, smaller fighter but will likely weigh more on fight night. He has more UFC experience and finishes, and has been finished fewer times. Dos Anjos has never been submitted, which is Moicano’s preferred method of victory. 

Dos Anjos main advantage is his takedown work. He was taken down six times by Michael Chiesa, a fighter with 54% takedown accuracy and 3.39 takedowns on average. The smaller Moicano has an average of 2.14 takedowns and 53% accuracy in the featherweight division. 

Betting Odds and Odds History 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Moicano Money Line +155
Dos Anjos Money Line -180
Over 4 ½ Rounds -105
Under 4 ½ Rounds  -125

Dos Anjos is the favorite, as a bigger fighter with a full training camp. He was the favorite in his win over Felder at -210, and the underdog in all recent losses except a +180 upset of Kevin Lee. Dos Anjas was also a -125 favorite over Lawler and -190 favorite to Magny, winning both, but hasn’t been upset as the favorite since his loss to Tony Ferguson in 2016’s Fight of the Night. 

Moicano was the favorite in both wins over Hernandez and Herbert. He was a +123 underdog in his loss to Fiziev, and was upset by both Chan Sung Jung and Jose Aldo at -213 and -100. He upset Calvin Kattar as a +105 underdog in 2018. 

Over Under Props Analysis

In his last seven fights, Moicano hasn’t gone to decision. His last decision win was over Calvin Kattar in 2018. Dos Anjos’ show at welterweight was a struggle, with four decision losses. The majority of his UFC finishes were in 2010 to 2014, but a move to lightweight may change all that. Still, with his last two finishes as submissions, the Over 4 ½ Rounds prop looks good. Dos Anjos lost the majority of his knockout power after turning 30. 

Fight Breakdown and UFC 272 Betting Pick 

Dos Anjos struggled against welterweight submission fighters like Chiesa and wrestlers like Covington, or even Gleison Tibau. Still, Moicano has a penchant for getting knocked out when he can’t win the takedown. 

I think Dos Anjos has the conditioning to stay in top position and win the stand-up exchanges. I’m expecting a gritty fight with plenty of close calls.

Our betting pick is Rafael Dos Anjos money line at -180, a $0.56 payout per dollar wagered.

Edson Barboza vs Bryce Mitchell 

Barboza hasn’t been back since his knockout loss to Giga Chikadze. Barboza is always dangerous, and can finish a fight in an instant. He’s up against the undefeated in the UFC Bryce Mitchell, one of the only fighters with a twister submission win. 

Tale of the Tape for Barboza vs Mitchell

Fighter Edson ‘Junior’ Barboza Bryce ‘Thug Nasty’ Mitchell
Age 35 27
Height 5’11’’ 5’10’’
Reach/Stance 75’’ Orthodox  70’’ Southpaw
Record 22-10 14-1
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/8 1/0
UFC Losses via Sub/TKO 2/3 0/0

Edson is eight years the elder of Mitchell, sporting a five inch reach advantage. Bryce goes for takedowns at an average of 3.26 per fight, but has upped his game in recent fights, scoring ten over his last two wins. Barboza rarely goes for takedowns, but sports a 78% takedown defense. 

Barboza’s eight knockout finishes are his highlight. While Bryce won the fight with Bobby Moffett through better striking and good BJJ, he’ll need to continue his average 1.46 significant strikes taken per minute against Barboza. 

Betting Odds and Odds History 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Barboza Money Line +145
Mitchell Money Line -165
Over 2 ½ Rounds -110
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -120
Fight Doesn’t go the Distance  -145
Mitchell by Submission +200
Barboza by TKO  +275
Barboza in Round 1  +600
Mitchell in Round 1 by Submission +500
Mitchell Inside the Distance +165
Barboza Inside the Distance  +265

Barboza was the favorite in his last loss to Giga Chikadze. Prior, he upset Shand Burgos at +130. He lost three times in a row as the favorite, ranging -118 to -132 to Ige, Felder, and Gaethje. 

Mitchell was the favorite in four of his UFC wins ranging -117 to -550. He upset Moffett at +135 and Sayles at +120. His only career loss was to Brian Tidwell in 2013, a fight he took before any real training. 

Clearly, Mitchell made good use of his time off from the UFC. You have to admire a kind of uninhibitied self-belief.

Fight Breakdown and UFC 272 Betting Pick 

Barboza has lost every fight in the UFC where he was taken down more than once, including Kevin Lee, Khabib, and Jamie Varner. He’s also susceptible to sweeps, as he was swept and finished against Tony Furgeson. Still, these are high level names and quality fighters. 

Mitchell vs Strikers

Andre Fili has the best striking stats of any fighter Mitchell has faced to date, and Mithcell was hit 27 times in their 2020 bout. He broke his hand, forcing him to take nearly fourteen months out. Barboza is a more technical and aggressive striker, landing more shots on average and boasting more finishes than Fili and a better finishing percentage. 

UFC 272 Betting Pick

I expert Bryce Mitchell to take a narrow win in his toughest UFC bout to date. He has the kind of wrestling that frustrates Barboza, but not to the point that I expect a finish. Don’t expect any Mitchell fight finishing props to pay out, and bet the Barboza TKO prop if you’re a fan. I don’t see him winning a decision with a far better grappler. 
Our pick is the Mitchell money line at -165, a $0.61 payout per dollar wagered. 

Kevin Holland vs Alex Oliveira 

Holland is coming off a rough two losses and a No Contest headbutt stoppage, ending a five fight winning streak. Alex is on a three fight losing streak, including two very early stoppages. Oliveira has had a rocky four years in the UFC, picking up only two wins of his last eight, both via decision. 

It’s clear that Holland is meant to win this fight, and hopefully that Oliveira drops to lightweight after losing to yet another athletic welterweight fighter.  

Tale of the Tape for Holland vs Oliveira

Fighter Kevin Holland Alex Oliveira 
Age 29 34
Height 6’3’’ 5’11’’ 
Reach/Stance 81’’ Orthodox  76’’ Orthodox 
Record 21-7, 1 NC  22-11-1, 2 NC 
Submissions/TKO in UFC 2/3 3/4
UFC Losses via Sub/TKO 1/0 5/1

Oliveira has more UFC finishes, but a similar finishing percentage among UFC bouts total. The biggest differences here are size and losses via finish. Alex has been finished six times across nine UFC losses, 66% of all losses and 28% of all UFC fights. 

Holland’s five inch reach advantage gives him the ability to put up TKOs like his hammer fist from bottom position against Jacare. Alex will need to crowd that range very early. 

Betting Odds and Odds History 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Holland Money Line -335
Oliveira Money Line +275
Over 1 ½ Rounds -165
Under 1 ½ Rounds  +135
Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance  -175
Holland by Points  +240
Holland by TKO +165
Oliveira by Submission  +800
Holland Round 1 TKO  +400
Oliveira by Round 1 Submission  +2000
Alex Oliveira +3.5 points  +105
Holland Inside the Distance  -120

Holland was a -188 in his loss to Brunson, but the favorite in his five wins prior, ranging from -111 to -750. He was upset by Brendan Allen at -155 and lost to Santos as a +280 underdog. Oddsmakers have faith in Holland, and have only been wrong on two occasions through his UFC career. 

Alex has been the underdog for all three of his losses, ranging +120 to +176. He was the favorite in his wins over Griffin and Sobatta at -115. He was upset twice in a row by Dalby and Perry, but lost to Gunnar Nelson at +135 as the underdog. Oddsmakers have been 100% on Alex Oliveira for the last five fights, and have only missed two calls in his last ten appearances. 

Over Under and Round Betting

Alex has been finished twice in his last six fights, and three times in his last seven, each in the first and second round. In Holland’s most recent winning streak, he finished four of the five opponents, three of them in the first round. 

Holland by first round TKO at +400 is a good bet, but Holland Inside the distance is much safer. I’d steer clear of the Under 1 ½ Rounds, because the payout isn’t worth the risk. I don’t see Oliveira catching any finishes, but if you’re an Oliveira fan, check the Alex Oliveira by +3.5 points spread, offering you a payout even if he loses a close enough decision!

Fight Breakdown and UFC 272 Betting Pick 

Holland has a high chance of finishing Oliveira. The 34 year old has lost a significant amount of power over his last seven years in the octagon and hasn’t seen a finish in four years. Fighters lose power as they age, some more than others. 

Another major factor that I’m going to start to consider in fight picks is pay discrepancy. Holland is publicly making twice what Alex does, and Alex is still working full time on his ranch and raising three kids. This is not the easy path of rest and recovery needed by pro athletes. 

Our betting pick is Kevin Holland at -335, a $0.30 payout per dollar wagered on a knockout striker stepping down in competition for a clean win. 


Serghei Spivac vs Greg Hardy 

This heavyweight bout is the exciting return of Greg Hardy versus the grappling focused Spivac. Hardy is an ex-pro NFL player on a two fight losing streak. He has power and athleticism, but his technique continues to be a failing point for him.   

Serghei has lost to some of the division’s best, but he’s brutalized fighters like Aleksei Oleinik and Vanderaa. 

Tale of the Tape for Spivac vs Hardy 

Fighter Serghei ‘Polar Bear’ Spivac  Greg ‘Prince of War’ Hardy
Age 27 33
Height 6’3’’ 6’5’’
Reach/Stance 78’’ Orthodox  80’’ Orthodox 
Record 13-3 7-4, 1 NC
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/1 0/5
UFC Losses via Sub/TKO 0/2 0/3

Greg is a big heavyweight and gives the Polar Bear a run for his money. Both fighters only have UFC level losses. Hardy has been finished more often, but has a better finishing percentage. Hardy does have six finishes in the UFC but one was overturned due to the illegal use of an inhaler between rounds. Greg is clearly willing to do anything to take the win. 

UFC Takedown Stats

Spivac will clearly be looking for the takedown against Hardy. His average is 2.7 per fight. If you look at the five fighters that Greg has defeated (outside of DWCS which have been included in his finishing stats) you’ll see that none of them have a takedown per fight over 1. Serghei is far and away the best wrestler they’ve put Greg Hardy up against, and for good reason. Hardy trains at ATT Florida, not a gym known for its heavyweight wrestling program.   

Betting Odds and Odds History 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Spivak Money Line -200
Hardy Money Line +170
Over 1 ½ Rounds -155
Under 1 ½ Rounds  +125
Hardy by TKO  +250
Spivak by Submission  +300

Spivak has been the favorite in his three fight winning streak and underdog to Tom Aspinall at +225. Hardy was the underdog in his last loss to Tuivasa at +105 and his loss to Volkov at +250. He was the favorite in losses to Tybura and Allen Crowder at -450 in 2019. 

Prop Betting Analysis

Spivak by Submission feels like a solid bet, as does a Hardy KO. The Under 1 ½ Rounds bet covers one of Spivak’s last five and two of Hardy’s last five, indicating that it’s really not the guaranteed banger that many people are making it out to be. At least, not without a closer look at the UFC stats. 

Spivak is cautious, and if Hardy rushes forward we could see a takedown clinic that leads us to a decision and a very tired Greg Hardy. Hardy fans should take the TKO prop over the money line. 

Spivac vs KO Artists

Spivac’s losses included Aspinall and Walt Harris, both fighters with high rates of striking and early nights similar to Hardy. His win over Tuivasa was a second round arm triangle after a takedown clinic. It’s clear Spivac will need to push the pace against Hardy, and I think exhausting Hardy may be a strategy that Spivac doesn’t have the conditioning for. 

Fight Breakdown and UFC 272 Betting Pick 

My biggest concern for Spivac’s win is his significant strikes absorbed per minute, at 3.22. Serghei gets hit, and knockout strikers like Tybura and Spinall took it to him. However, their takedown defenses have shown effective against other heavyweight wrestlers. 

Against finisher Tuivasa, Spivac met his pace with six takedowns and an early night. 

Hardy has gotten better with each UFC showing. I don’t think he can out wrestle Spivac, but I do believe he can land a lucky shot. While the Spivac money line looks like the right bet on paper, I’m going with a hunch on the Under 1 ½ Rounds prop bet for +125, a double your money payout on a knockout striker and his grappling counterpart. 


Jalin Turner vs Jamie Mullarkey 

Turner is on a three fight winning streak, 5-2 overall in the UFC. He upset Uros Medic in his last fight, crushing the undefeated fighter as a +108 underdog. Mullarkey is on a two fight winning streak, going 2-2 in the UFC overall. He’s an exciting finisher as well, getting the KO in both of his wins. 

The under has never looked better, but let’s see if we can identify a money line. 

Tale of the Tape for Turner vs Mullarkey 

Fighter Jalin ‘The Tarantula’ Turner  Jamie Mullarkey
Age 26 27
Height 6’3’’ 6’0’’
Reach/Stance 77’’ Southpaw 74’’ Orthodox 
Record 11-5 14-4
Submissions/TKO in UFC 2/3 0/2
UFC Losses via Sub/TKO 0/1 0/0

Turner is the larger fighter, and a massive lightweight. Both fighters have lost twice in the UFC, but only Turner was finished, by the always dangerous top contender Vicente Luque. 

Mullarkey lost decisions to Ziam and Riddell. Neither fighter has UFC level finishing power, and neither have any UFC finishes at all. 

Turner looks like the favorite on paper. He has more power, and lands at a far higher rate than Mullarkey, 6.2 strikes to Jamie’s 3.03 per minute. 

Betting Odds and Odds History 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Turner Money Line -151
Mullarkey Money Line +131
Over 1 ½ Rounds -155
Under 1 ½ Rounds  +125
Mullarkey by KO +400
Turner by KO  +200
Turner by Points +315
Fight Doesn’t go the Distance  -210

Jalin was the underdog against Medic at +108 and Luque at +550. He lost to Matt Frevola at -147, and hovers around -212 to -440 in UFC wins. 

Mullarkey upset both Smith and Worthy, and was the -125 favorite over Ziam. Oddsmakers called his loss to Brad Riddell at +147, but have been wrong on Mullarkey in 75% of UFC calls. 

Over Under and Prop Bet Analysis

The Under 1 ½ Rounds prop captures all but two of Turner’s UFC fights, and only one of Mullarkey’s UFC fights. Turner is more likely to win a decision, especially considering his higher rate of fire. 

Mullarkey by TKO may be one of the only props I’d consider. I don’t think he can win the decision, but I do think he has more overall power, and Turner has been put down in the first round before. 

Fight Breakdown and UFC 272 Betting Pick 

Turner has many tools at his disposal. He’s a southpaw, something Mullarkey is yet to face in the octagon, and I feel that it may play to Turner’s long head kicks to the open side against a shorter opponent. 

Mullarkey has better wrestling, or at least more aggressive wrestling, but his BJJ is lacking. Turner in the over sprawl position could be devastating. I see more paths to victory for our betting pick, the Jalin Turner money line at -151, a $0.66 return per dollar wagered. 


Marina Rodriguez vs Yan Xianon 

This women’s strawweight fight pits Marina, a fighter on a three fight winning streak, against the recently dethroned Yan Xianon. Yan was crushing the competition, beating six fighters in a row on her way to UFC title contention. Esparza knocked her out in two rounds. 

Tale of the Tape for Rodriguez vs Xianon

Fighter Marina Rodriguez  Yan Xianon
Age 34 32
Height 5’6’’ 5’5’’
Reach/Stance 65’’ Orthodox  63’’ Orthodox 
Record 15-1-2 13-2, 1 NC
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/2 0/0
UFC Losses via Sub/TKO 0/0 0/1

Rodriguez is the older, larger fighter by inches. She’s a quality fighter with knockout power, which could be a concern for Xianon. Esparza is the only fighter to beat Rodriguez as well, but it was via decision. If Rodriguez can take more punishment, we could see her trading shots with Yan hoping to clip her for an early finish. 

Yan is a decision fighter and tactician to the core. She used takedowns on Kowalkiewicz, scoring five in one fight. Against Hill, she won a narrow decision, out-landing Hill in significant strikes by twenty. 

Betting Odds and Odds History 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Yan Money Line +205
Marina Money Line -240
Over 2 ½ Rounds -260
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +200
Rodriguez by Points +100
Yan by Points  +300
Rodriguez inside the Distance  -260

Yan was the favorite in all UFC bouts leading up to her loss, including to Esparza at -124. Rodriguez was the underdog in her wins over Dern and Ribas at +185 and +285 respectively. She beat Waterson as the -213 favorite, and lost to Esparza at -184.

Over Under and Prop Betting Analysis

Unless you believe in Marina’s power, the Over 2 ½ Rounds is a safe bet. Both Rodriguez finishes have been in the first round, and for Amanda Ribas it was her only UFC loss. I feel that Marina Rodrigues is underrated, but I don’t want to bank on her knockout. Yan by Points is the right bet for any Yan fan, offering triple your money for the obvious Yan outcome. 

Fight Breakdown and UFC 272 Betting Pick 

Rodriguez looks to be getting better with each fight, especially in her 2021 run She nearly defeated Esparza as well, and Esparza ran through Yan with ease. Expect Yan to win rounds, but for Rodriguez to beat her two rounds to one or with another first round flash KO. Our betting pick is Marina Rodriguez at -240, a $0.42 payout per dollar wagered. 


Nicolae Negumereanu vs Kennedy Nzechuwu 

Both fighters are exciting light heavyweights with strong finishing mechanics. Nzechuwu is a giant 205 pound fighter, and his 83’’ reach is the largest in his division, the second longest in UFC history next to Stefan Struve. 

Tale of the Tape for Negumereanu vs Nzechuwu

Fighter Nicolae Negumerean Kennedy ‘African Savage’  Nzechuwu
Age 27 29
Height 6’0’’ 6’5’’
Reach/Stance 78’’ Orthodox  83’’ Southpaw
Record 11-1 9-2
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/1 0/3
UFC Losses via Sub/TKO 0/0 1/1

Nzechuwu has a serious size advantage and finishing advantage. Both fighters were undefeated until their UFC runs. 

Betting Odds and Odds History 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Negumereanu Money Line +115
Nzechuwu Money Line -135
Over 2 ½ Rounds -160
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +130

Negumereanu was the underdog against Camur at +215. He upset Camur with a decision win. Nzechuwu has been the underdog for his last three victories. He was also the underdog against Jung, losing in the first round via TKO. 

The Under props don’t support the average outcome of either fighter’s UFC bouts, but with Negumereanu coming off an early TKO win, and Nzechuwu coming off an early TKO loss, expect Negumereanu to be aggressive early. 

Fight Breakdown and UFC 272 Betting Pick

Both fighters have knockout power, but Negumereanu has more tools at his disposal. The groundwork and takedown defense of Nzechuwu are lacking, so I see Negumereanu winning either a takedown focused decision, or an early knockout. 

Our betting pick is the Nicolae Negumereanu money line at -135, a $0.74 payout per dollar wagered. 


Maryna Moroz vs Maiya Agapova 

Moroz is a UFC veteran that can’t seem to beat fighters in the top five. She faces flyweight Agapova, a fighter with two submission victories off knockdowns. 

Tale of the Tape for Moroz vs Agapova 

Fighter Maryna ‘Iron Lady’ Moroz  Maiya ‘Demon Slayer’ Agapova 
Age 30 24
Height 5’7’’ 5’6’’
Reach/Stance 67’’ Orthodox  68’’ Southpaw
Record 10-3 10-2
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/0 2/0
UFC Losses via Sub/TKO 0/0 0/1

Moroz has double the UFC experience of Agapova, but a very similar record. Agapova has a better finishing percentage, but Moroz has never been finished. 

Betting Odds and Odds History 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Moroz Money Line +160
Agapova Money Line -185
Over 2 ½ Rounds -185
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +155

Agapova was the underdog against Mazo at +192. She was upset by Dobson at -1375, one of the biggest non-title women’s MMA upsets ever. Moroz was the underdog versus Mazo at +145. She lost to Hill as a +132 underdog and Esparza as a +185 underdog. 

Fight Breakdown and UFC 272 Betting Pick 

Moroz is tough to finish and often fights to a decision. Agapova has one finish coming late in the third round. I feel these fighters are two evenly matched to pick a money line, our pick is the Over 2 ½ Rounds prop bet at -185, a $0.54 return per dollar wagered. 

These kind of submission finishes are unreliable as a strategy, but her killer instinct is there. If Moroz slips up, Agapova will look for a finish instantly.

Brian Kelleher vs Umar Nurmagomedov 

Kelleher is a good opponent for Umar. He’s a finisher who gets finished often, but his last three fights have been less exciting decisions. 

Umar is an undefeated Dagestani with plenty to offer the featherweight division. 

Tale of the Tape for Kelleher vs Nurmagomedov 

Fighter Brian ’Boom’ Kelleher  Umar Nurmagomedov
Age 35 25
Height 5’6’’  5’8’’
Reach/Stance 66’’ Switch  69’’ Orthodox 
Record 24-12 13-0
Submissions/TKO in UFC 3/2 1/0
UFC Losses via Sub/TKO 2/1 0/0

Umar is undefeated, winning all fights by decision or submission over his career. He’s slightly larger than Kelleher, and a decade younger. 

Kelleher finished all of his 2020 appearances, then saw three decisions in 2021-2022. 

Betting Odds and Odds History 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Kelleher Money Line +550
Nurmagomedov Money Line -800
Over 2 ½ Rounds -135
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +105

Umar commonly outpoints opponents, finding decision wins. While the Under may look appealing, don’t be on Umar doing anything other than what it takes to win. 

Kelleher has been the underdog in his last four losses ranging from +185 to +210. 

Fight Breakdown and UFC 272 Betting Pick 

Kelleher sports a 60% takedown defense, and in his wins he’s generally the better wrestler. Kelleher scored nine takedowns over his last two fights. He’s also susceptible to submissions off the bottom, as he was subbed by Marlon Vera in 2017, or from oversprawl by Montel Jackson in 2018. Umar will capitalize on any grappling weaknesses. 

Our betting pick is the favorite, Umar Numragomedov at -800, a $0.13 payout per dollar wagered and a fight worth parlaying with another one sided win from this weekend’s fight cards. 

Tim Elliot vs Tagir Ulanbekov 

Tagir is undefeated in the UFC, winning his last two decisions with quality wrestling. He faces Tim Elliot, a UFC vet that’s lost four of his last six fights, mostly against top teir talent. Elliot has fought the who’s who of the flyweight division, including Dodson, Askar Askarov, Figueiredo, Benavidez, Demetrious Johsnon, and Matheus Nicolau. 

Tale of the Tape for Elliot vs Ulanbekov 

Fighter Tim Elliot  Tagir Ulanbekov
Age 35 30
Height 5’7’’ 5’7’’
Reach/Stance 66’’ Southpaw 70’’ Southpaw 
Record 18-12-1 14-1
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/0 0/0
UFC Losses via Sub/TKO 4/0 0/0

Tagir is the larger, younger fighter. He’s taken far less career damage. Wars like the fight with Askarov take their toll on a fighter like Elliot, and that was just eighteen months ago. Elliot’s best wins are against fighters he can take down on repeat, like Louis Smolka and Jordan Espinosa. 

Tagir gave up four takedowns to Bruno Silva, so I imagine Elliot will find a way to the canvas. 

Betting Odds and Odds History 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Elliot Money Line +185
Ulanbekov Money Line -214
Over 2 ½ Rounds -165
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +135

Tagir has been the favorite in all UFC bouts. Elliot was the underdog in his loss to Nicolau, but the favorite in his back to back wins over Benoit and Espinosa. He was upset by Brandon Royval in 2020 as the -138 favorite.  

Fight Breakdown and UFC 272 Betting Pick 

Despite Elliot’s occasional loss via submission, I see this fight as an easy decision call. Neither fighter is very aggressive on the decision, and neither has notable knockout power. Our betting pick is the Over 2 ½ Rounds prop at -165, a $0.61 payout per dollar wagered. 


Devonte Smith vs Ludovit Klein 

Devonte Smith is yet to have a fight that doesn’t end in a knockout in the UFC, win or lose. Klein is 1-2 in the UFC, and has one knockout kick and a loss to superior grappler Nate Landwehr. 

Expect a stand up battle with the occasional takedown attempt from Klein. 

Tale of the Tape for Smith vs Klein 

Fighter Devonte’ King Kage’ Smith Luovit ‘Mr. Highlight’ Klein
Age 28 27
Height 5’9’’ 5’7’’
Reach/Stance 76’’ Orhtodox  72’’ Southpaw
Record 11-3 17-4
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/4 0/1
UFC Losses via Sub/TKO 0/2 1/0

Smith is the larger lightweight, with a four inch reach advantage and he has more proven finishing power alongside a better UFC finishing percentage overall. 

Smith looks good on the inside, and punishes grapplers with short elbows. Both the Jaynes and the Lowry finish were elbows initiated by takedown defense. 

Betting Odds and Odds History 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Smith Money Line -150
Klein Money Line +130
Over 1 ½ Rounds -140
Under 1 ½ Rounds  +110

The under is a surprising underdog bet at +110. Smith has only seen two fights go past the halfway point of round two. Klein has one fight ending in the first, and two making it to round three. I would see the Under as a favorite. 

Fight Breakdown and UFC 272 Betting Pick 

I don’t love Klein’s hand positioning against a strong fighter like Smith. Klein has a nearly classic muay thai stance, one that doesn’t translate well without gloves to block incoming hooks. I see Smith blasting through his guard early, and while this may end up being a kickboxing match, Smith can win inside the clinch using superior conditioning. Our betting pick is the Devonte Smith money line at -150, a $0.67 payout per dollar wager. 


Dustin Jacoby vs Michal Oleksiejczuk 

The night opens with two light heavyweight fighters with mixed results in the division. Jacoby has won five of his last six with two finishes, and Oleksiejczuk has won four of his last six with three finishes. 

Tale of the Tape for Jacoby vs Oleksiejczuk

Fighter Dustin ‘The Hanyak’ Jacoby  Michal ‘Hussar’ Oleksiejczuk 
Age 33 27
Height 6’3’’ 6’0’’
Reach/Stance 76’’ Orthodox  74’’ Southpaw
Record 16-5-1 16-4, 1 NC
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/2 0/3
UFC Losses via Sub/TKO 1/0 2/0

Both fighters have submission losses but have never been knocked out. I’m not sure if there is any hidden submission skill from either fighter, but now would be the time to utilize it. 

Betting Odds and Odds History 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Jacoby Money Line -195
Oleksiejczuk Money Line +170
Over 2 ½ Rounds -105
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -125
Jacoby by TKO +160 
Oleksiejczuk by Points +375

Jacoby is the favorite, with his TKO prop paying out less than Oleksiejczuk’s money line. The Under is near even with the Over. Both fighters have never been knocked out, so there is a good chance we’ll see a kickboxing match to the decision finish. 

Fight Breakdown and UFC 272 Betting Pick

Both fighters get hit at similar rates, 3.6 to 3.7 strikes absorbed per minute. They have 40% takedown accuracy and have each never gone for a submission finish. Jacoby keeps a better rate of striking, around one additional punch per minute landed, but that’s not enough to make up for any style differences. 

Our betting pick is the Over 2 ½ Rounds prop at -105. These fighters are evenly matched. Steer clear of a parlay or large bet on this fight. 


UFC 272 Betting Preview Wrap Up

If you’re just learning about MMA betting, look over the guide or check out our history of MMA predictions. UFC 272 had us looking to the favorite in the majority of bouts. Fighters like Turner and Umar Nurmagomedov are clearly being built up into something more, and those careers will be cultivated by the UFC. When you see a fighter that you know the UFC wants to win, like Sean O’Malley, don’t question their favorite status. 

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Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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