UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie Betting Odds and Picks

UFC 273 Steel Apr 6 Background

Bovada has organized odds for all thirteen fights on UFC 273, Volkanovski vs The Korean Zombie. We’re gathering the stats and making our top sports betting predictions across the entire card. 

UFC 273 airs April 9th, 2022 at 6:00 PM ET. The UFC 273 Fight Card is packed with hyped fights including two title fights. 

UFC 273 Odds: Main Card Picks

Here is a quick list of all five of our picks on the main card. If you want to see the stats and MMA breakdowns, scroll to see the fights in order from Main Event to the earliest fight. UFC 273 betting odds are accurate as of April 7th from Bovada. 

  • Volkanovski money line -800
  • Petr Yan money line -500
  • Parlay Betting Pick: Khamzat Chimaev money line -565
  • Tecia Torres money line -105
  • Mark Madsen money line +105


UFC 273 Odds and Prediction for Volkanovski vs Korean Zombie

Fighter Alexander ‘The Great’ Volkanovski Chan Sung Jung ‘Korean Zombie’
Age 33 35
Height 5’6’’ 5’7’’
Reach/Stance 71’’ Orthodox  72’’
Record 23-1 17-6
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/3 2/4
Fighter Training Camp UFC Performance Center, Freestyle MMA, Varied  Fight Ready MMA 

The 145 pound title is on the line. This is Volkanovski’s fourth title fight, having beaten Holloway twice and Ortega in a definitive fight of the night performance. Jung lost to Ortega two flights ago, but his unanimous decision win over Ige and the 2019 knockout of Frankie Edgar put him in title contention after Holloway was injured. 

Jung has lost two of his last six and three of his last seven. At 35 years old he’s approaching an age where he won’t hold onto the title for long. Some of his biggest wins, like the submission of Dustin Poirier, were prior to 2013. 

Volk is the fresher fighter, and the UFC 273 odds reflect the fact that he’s undefeated in the UFC, and has beaten two of the fighters that have beaten Zombie, Ortega and Aldo. Jung is a submission specialist, and the fight with Ortega left us with questions about whether ‘The Great’ could be submitted. However, Volkanovski has doubled down on his cross training with Craig Jones and the B-Team BJJ affiliate coaches at Freestyle MMA in Australia. Clearly the right choice in preparation with one of MMA’s greatest submission fighters. 

UFC 273 Betting Odds and Prop Bets

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Volkanovski Money Line -800
Chan Sung Jung Money Line +500
Over 3 ½ Rounds -185
Under 3 ½ Rounds  +140

Volkanovski is a big favorite in the UFC 273 Odds across all categories. His style tends to dictate the pace of fights, forcing fighters into gritty decision battles. Analysts agree, Jung needs a finish to win. His decision loss to Ortega showed striking weaknesses, and Volkanovski is a far better striker than Ortega. Jung does have more total UFC knockouts, but many of these take place in round one off another fighter’s mistake. Volkanovski is a honed professional with a rock solid chin, and betting on a Jung flash knockout feels like a longshot. 
Our betting pick is the Volkanovski Money line at -800. 

UFC 273 Odds and Prediction for Sterling vs Yan

Fighter Aljamain ‘Funk Master’ Sterling  Petr ‘No Mercy’ Yan
Age 32 28
Height 5’7’’ 5’7’’
Reach/Stance 71’’ Orthodox  67’’ Switch
Record 20-3 16-2
Submissions/TKO in UFC 4/1 0/4
Fighter Training Camp Team Bombsquad American Top Team, Various 

The bantamweight title is on the line in the rematch between the best 135 pound fighters, hands down. Yan lost the first fight after an illegal knee. In fact, Yan has never lost a fight outside of fouling, causing his own losses. 
The first bout showed Sterling having occasional success at best, clearly on his way to losing a decision. Yan threw it away with an illegal knee. 
There are two questions the bettor should ask: how much has Sterling improved and how risky is a bet on Yan given his history of fighting dirty?
I believe Yan will still cheat, but in ways that don’t get him disqualified. I also believe he’s the better striker and that Sterling’s BJJ isn’t on the level. 

Here is the DQ. Sterling looked like he could continue, but took the win. Tough to blame him, with how much is on the line, but it’s clear he didn’t want any more of his bout with Yan.

Is Team Bombsquad a Top Tier MMA School?

One of the biggest issues with Bombsquad is a lack of UFC level talent. Sterling is the only current fighter on the UFC roster. It’s unclear who the sparring partners are replicating Yan’s style, and with many fighters moving to Weidman-Longo MMA, Sterling has stuck closely with Bombsquad and Serra BJJ with little return. It’s concerning for his career in the long run. 

UFC 273 Betting Odds and Prop Bets

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Aljamain Sterling Money Line +350
Petr Yan Money Line -500
Over 3 ½ Rounds -170
Under 3 ½ Rounds  +130

Sterling is the underdog champion and Yan is a serious favorite. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Yan finish. In their first fight, Yan opened at -290, and that gives us a pretty strong indication of Sterling’s performance in the first fight. Given Yan’s blowout win over Sandhagen, Sterling is going to have to bring so much more to the table than he has against other top strikers. His TKO losses to Moraes in 2017 shows us he’s susceptible to a Yan finish, and his takedown stat at 24% doesn’t stand up to a defensive grappler like Yan. 
Our UFC 23 Co-Main Prediction is Petr Yan at -600. 

UFC 273 Odds and Prediction for Chimaev vs Burns

Fighter Khamzat ‘Borz’ Chimaev  Gilbert Burns ‘Durinho’ 
Age 27 35
Height 6’2’’ 5’10’’
Reach/Stance 75’’ Orthodox  71’’ Orthodox 
Record 10-0 20-4
Submissions/TKO in UFC 2/2 4/3
Fighter Training Camp Tiger Muay Thai, Various Sanford MMA 

We underestimated Chimaev in his last bout. Training footage produced of Borz shows very advanced grappling and a surprising level of top control. Burns has only lost one of his last eight fights, but has been finished twice in the UFC, including the loss to Dan Hooker in 2018. 
One of my biggest concerns for Burns is his age. At 35 and nearly a year since his last fight, it feels like many of his best performances were ages 30-32. His last few wins include Thompson (39,) Woodley (40,) and Demian Maia (44.) The 27 year old Chimaev is going to have a serious youth advantage over Burns and a night and day conditioning level over his last few opponents. 

UFC 273 Betting Odds and Prop Bets

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Khamzat Chimaev Money Line -575
Gilbert Burns Money Line +400
Over 1 ½ Rounds -130
Under 1 ½ Rounds  EVEN

I don’t think this is all hype. Chimaev has the mental game down to a tee, and Burns seems to be affected by his star power psychologically.
Chimaev is a big favorite, but I think even -575 is generous to Burns. He was outclassed by Usman, and many analysts believe Chimaev is the obvious choice for a title fight. All four of his UFC appearances have been dominant finishes, with an average 4.65 takedowns per fight and an average strikes absorbed of .08. 
Consider Chimaev’s odds over his last few bouts. He hovered just under -500 with Jingliang, Meershaert and Phillips. He was -1000 over McKee. After four finishes where the fighters didn’t put up a fight at all, he’s a -575? Burns is top ten ranked, but hasn’t beaten a fighter that wasn’t mid losing streak or at the end of their career. Look at his record and you’ll see that his wins didn’t interrupt massive winning streaks, but rather he caught fights with many fighters in their toughest moments. 
Chimaev is our parlay pick at -575, the best value of any UFC 273 odds, and our most confident bet of the UFC 273 fight card. 

UFC 273 Odds and Prediction for Pichel vs Madsen 

Fighter Vinc ‘From Hell’ Pichel Mark ‘The Olympian’ Madsen
Age 39 37
Height 5’10’’ 5’8’’
Reach/Stance 72’’ Orthodox  72’’ Orthodox
Record 14-2 11-0
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/1 0/1
Fighter Training Camp Factory X Fight Ready 

Madsen is now 3-0 in the UFC, winning definitively over all three opponents. His bout with Guida has many people feeling that he’s over estimated, but I think it was just a good showing for Guida and an attempt at kickboxing for Madsen to develop experience in that category. Madsen scored no takedowns in that fight, as opposed to the eight he scored on Austin Hubbard. 
Pichel was outgrappled by Hubbard, a bad sign to start with, but won via landing more total strikes. His losses in the UFC are to Gillespie, a grappler, and Khabilov, who took him down five times before winning via Slam. 
Pichel is great, but has been defeated by great wrestlers twice prior. Yet, analysts see this differently. 

UFC 273 Betting Odds and Prop Bets

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Pichel Money Line -125
Madsen Money Line +105
Over 2 ½ Rounds -210
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +160

Madsen is the underdog! Offering near even odds for a fighter who’s never lost. I’m shocked, and I feel that Pichel is exciting and that is convincing people he’s better than Madsen, who is measured and methodical in his fighting. 
Let’s take advantage of this UFC 273 Odds faux-pas and bet Madsen at +105. 

UFC 273 Odds and Prediction for Torres vs Dern 

Fighter Tecia Torres ‘The Tiny Tornado  Mackenzie Dern 
Age 32 29
Height 5’1’’ 5’4’’
Reach/Stance 60’’ Orthodox  63’’ Orthodox 
Record 13-5 11-2
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/1 4/0
Fighter Training Camp Triple Threat Gym  Checkmat RVCA 

Torres is on a tear, winning three fights in a row. She faces Dern after her fight of the night performance last October where she was beaten with strikes 144 to 49 by Marina Rodriguez over the five round fight. Dern is still a submission fighter at her coare, winning three of her last five UFC appearances via submission. Torres is a decision fighter. Her four fight losing streak from 2018 to 2019 included the best names in the game, including Marina who beat her 84 strikes to 41. Torres will have a simple game plan; land strikes and avoid the submission. 
Dern’s training camp at Checkmat is concerning. Her BJJ focused strategy leaves betters with only one hope, a submission win. Torres is crafty, and an eight year veteran of the UFC. Having only one track to victory doesn’t bode well against a fighter who’s mastered long fights with a high volume of strikes. 

UFC 273 Betting Odds and Prop Bets

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Tecia Torres Money Line -105
Mackenzie Dern Money Line -115
Over 2 ½ Rounds -200
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +150

Dern is exclusively looking for a finish. If I were a fan of Dern for this fight, I would consider the Under bet. Torres has shown she developed knockout power in her bout with Sam Hughes with a first round TKO, and Mack gets hit alot, absorbing 4.22 strikes per minute on average. 
Our betting pick is Tecia Torres at -105, a well rounded fighter with quality submission defense. 

UFC 273 Odds and Predictions: Prelim Fights 

First, we’re listing off all eight prelim picks, followed by the stats and MMA breakdowns for each bout. 

  • Aspen Ladd money line +155
  • Ian Garry money Line -155
  • Jairzhino Rozenstruik money line -155
  • Gall vs Malott Over 1 ½ Rounds -145
  • Upset of the Night: Daniel Santos +158 
  • Jared Vanderaa money line -110 
  • Fremd vs Hernandez ‘Fight Won’t Go the Distance’ -450
  •  Piera Rodriguez money line -115


UFC 273 Odds and Prediction for Ladd vs Pennington

Fighter Aspen Ladd Raquel ‘Rocky’  Pennington 
Age 27 33
Height 5’6’’ 5’7’’
Reach/Stance 66’’ Orthodox  67’’
Record 9-2 13-9
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/3 3/0
Fighter Training Camp MMA Gold Team  Triple Threat Gym 

Ladd was upset in her main event with Dumont as a -135 favorite. Her only other loss was another upset as a -111 over Germaine de Randamie. Pennington Has been on a tear since switching to the Colorado Triple Threat Gym. She defeated up-and-comer Chiasson in December. 
Neither fighter has much of an advantage in stamina, as they’ve both lost a decision and fumbled in final rounds. This isn’t a classic striker versus grappler, as Pennington will regularly stand up and trade the majority of the fight, while catching the occasional submission attempt only when relevant.
Ladd has knocked out three of her six opponent’s in the UFC, and has a clear power advantage over Pennington. Pennignton has struggled against pure strikers, losing to Holly Holm twice and to Randamie. Ladd would be the toughest striker that Pennington has defeated, and certainly the one with the best KO percentage. 

UFC 273 Betting Odds and Prop Bets

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Aspen Ladd Money Line +155
Raquel Pennington Money Line -190
Over 2 ½ Rounds -350
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +250

Ladd is the underdog for the first time in her UFC career. Again, age is a concern in this bout. Raquel is 33 and her longevity is in question, barely winning over Pannie Kianzad in 2021. Kinanzad is outside of the top twenty bantamweights, and Raquel’s performances range back to 2013 when the division was just being developed.
Pennington takes an average of 3.21 strikes per minute and absorbs around 25-50 strikes total per fight over her last five. Consider that Ladd lands on average 3.6 strikes per minute, and has knocked out three fighters with less than fifty. While I don’t see a Pennington knockout loss, I do see an Aspen Ladd win. 
Our betting pick is Aspen Ladd at +155. The youthful striker is still finding her game, and Pennington is set in her ways of exchanging with little regard for striking defense. 

UFC 273 Odds and Prediction for Garry vs Weeks 

Fighter Ian ‘The Future’ Garry  Darian Weeks 
Age 26 28
Height 6’3’’ 5’11’’
Reach/Stance 74’’ Orthodox  72’’ Orthodox 
Record 8-0 5-1
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/1 0/0
Fighter Training Camp Sanford MMA  Hulett House MMA 

Ian Garry returns against formerly undefeated Darian Weeks. Weeks is one of the best in the American Midwest, running that local circuit for years. However, he didn’t face top tier talent and it cost him, losing his UFC debut. 
Garry was a Cage Warriors fighter brought on after stunning knockout wins, which he continued in his UFC debut. He’s tall for a Welterweight, where Weeks is quite short and looks small for the division. 
I feel Weeks is outclassed here, and should look to take some warm up fights with someone who’s lost a UFC bout or two before contracting with the world’s best. 
Garry is at Sanford MMA and while Weeks is cross training, he’s still at Hulett House at least part time, where he has no UFC level training partners. 

UFC 273 Betting Odds and Prop Bets

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Garry Money Line -400
Weeks Money Line +290
Over 2 ½ Rounds -185
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +140

The under could be the right bet, given Garry’s history of finishing six of his eight professional bouts and Weeks’ forward moving style. However, the right bet feels like the Garry money line. He’s a strong favorite, he has the better camp, the UFC momentum and virtually no visible weaknesses in his fight tape. 
Our UFC 273 betting pick is Ian Garry at -400, a $0.25 return per dollar wager. 

UFC 273 Odds and Prediction for Tybura vs Rozenstruik 

Fighter Marcin Tybura  Jairzinho “Bigi Boy’ Rozenstruik
Age 36 34
Height 6’3’’ 6’2’’
Reach/Stance 78’’ Orthodox  78’’ Orthodox 
Record 22-7 12-3
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/4 0/5
Fighter Training Camp Ankos MMA, Syndicate American Top Team

This looks like one of the most exciting fights of the night. Rozenstruik and Tybura are both coming off losses, and both are high level knockout strikers. Rozenstruik has lost to Gane, Blaydes and Ngannou with only one knockout loss, while Tybura has been knocked out three times without ever facing the biggest names in the heavyweight division. This is a big step up for Tybura, whose wins over Harris and Spivak have been the biggest of his career. 
Both fighters have quality teams and similar stats, however Tybura is two years older, and 36 is a bit old to be absorbing 3.4 heavyweight strikes per minute on average. 

UFC 273 Betting Odds and Prop Bets

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Tybura Money Line +130
Rozenstruik Money Line -155
Over 2 ½ Rounds +115
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -150

I don’t see Tybura capable of knocking out Rozenstruik if Gane and Blaydes could not. Both fighters connected flush, and neither phased Big Bibi. Given that Tybura went the distance with Volkov, I wonder if we could end up seeing a more defensive style, leading to yet another decision. In this bout, I’d bet the Over 2 ½ Rounds before I took the under, if only because I think only Rozenstruik is capable of a knockout finish. Our betting pick is the Rozenstruik money line. This fight could go either way, but I’m unconvinced Tybura still has the athleticism to compete inside the top five. 

UFC 273 Odds and Prediction for Malott vs Gall 

Fighter Mike ‘Proper’ Malott  Mickey Gall 
Age 30 30
Height 6’1’’ 6’2’’
Reach/Stance 73’’ Orthodox  74’’ Switch
Record 7-1-1 7-4
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/0 5/0
Fighter Training Camp Team Alpha Male  Gracie New Jersey, Miller Brothers

In classic UFC matchmaking fashion, make the BJJ guys fight each other and maybe they won’t grapple. Gall has only one win that isn’t a submission in his UFC career, and has lost every other fight over his last eight. Malott has knockout power, but has primarily been billed as a grappler with submission skills. He’s fought tough fighters throughout his career, facing four undefeated fighters across eight professional fights. 

Gall’s striking really never hit this level of aggression, and it’s reminiscent of Sanchez.
Malott will have an athletic edge, and as with Diego Sanchez, I believe counter wrestling and ground strikes will play a major role. 

UFC 273 Betting Odds and Prop Bets

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Malott Money Line -200
Gall Money Line +160
Over 1 ½ Rounds -145
Under 1 ½ Rounds  +110

Over 1 ½ Rounds looks good. Gall won’t fall for any quick finishes, and the majority of his submission wins against athletes are in the later rounds. I don’t see Malott getting caught with anything sudden, and I see Gall surviving an initial onslaught of the new fighter trying to prove himself. Their grappling should cancel out, and we’ll see who’s conditioning prevails in the late second and third rounds. Our UFC 273 betting prediction is the Over 1 ½ Rounds at -145.

UFC 273 Odds and Prediction for Arce vs Santos 

Fighter Julio Arce  Daniel ‘WillyCat’ Santos 
Age 32 27
Height 5’7’’ 5’7’’
Reach/Stance 70’’ Southpaw  67’’ Orthodox 
Record 17-5 10-1
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/3 Debut
Fighter Training Camp Team Tiger Schulmann Chute Boxe Diego Lima

Arce has only one loss to 9-2 Murad Kalamov of ACA Russia. He’s a young kid with wild finishes both in knockouts and submissions in a near even split. Spinning elbows and fists are common for Santos, and the intensity is kept high. He’s been fighting as a professional since he was 18 and had no amatuer career, winning against adults along the way. 
Arce has struggled over his last five, losing every other match. He was knocked out by Song Yadong last November, and was outstruck by Moraes and Dawodu. The only win that Arce hasn’t finished is now contender Dan Ige. 

UFC 273 Betting Odds and Prop Bets

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Daniel Santos Money Line +158
Julio Arce Money Line -197
Over 2 ½ Rounds -165
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +125

The under could be the right bet. Arce finishes fights, Santos finishes fights, and both can be finished. I can’t help but think Santos is going to bring the heat and Arce is going to weather the storm. Analysts see Santos as inexperienced. He lost his only step up in competition at ACA just three years ago. I believe betting analysts underestimate these ACA bouts and the quality of fighters in those circuits. 
Fight tape shows Santos to be dangerous and efficient. He’s more vulnerable to ground work than stand up, and Arce only shoots takedowns when he’s losing stand up battles in too little, too late attempts. Our betting pick is newcomer Daniel Santos at +158. This is our underdog betting pick of the evening. 

UFC 273 Odds and Prediction for Vanderaa vs Oleinik 

Fighter Jared Vanderaa Aleksei The Boa Constrictor’ Olenik 
Age 29 45
Height 6’4’’ 6’2’’
Reach/Stance 80’’ Orthodox  80’’ Orthodox 
Record 12-7 59-16-1
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/1 6/1

Both fighters are on losing streaks in this striker versus grappler match up. Vanderaa will look to engage in a kickboxing match with occasional clinch work and Olenik will work to get this fight to the ground by any means necessary. It’s hard to believe that the 45 year old can make this fight competitive, but with three losses straight, two via knockout, you have to see this going to Vanderaa. 

UFC 273 Betting Odds and Prop Bets

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Jared Vanderaa Money Line -110
Aleksei Oleinik Money Line -110
Over 1 ½ Rounds -110
Under 1 ½ Rounds  -120

The oddsmakers see a fight that can go either way. I think Oleinik has no hope but a submission and his wrestling can’t be two sturdy going on fifty. Vanderaa’s takedown defense is currently 20% of attempts, but this is skewed by his five takedowns given up to Alexandr Romanov in 2021. I think Oleinik will struggle to get the takedown and attempt to pull guard, where Jared should force the stand up to the best of his ability. 
Our betting pick is Jared Vanderaa at -110. 

UFC 273 Odds and Prediction for Fremd vs Hernandez 

Fighter Josh Fremd Anthony ‘Fluffy’ Hernandez 
Age 28 28
Height 6’4’’ 6’0’’
Reach/Stance 76’’ Orthodox  75’’ Orthodox 
Record 9-2 8-2, 1 NC
Submissions/TKO in UFC Debut 2/0

Fremd is a knockout striker that beat Jackson MMA’s Joel Bauman in February via submission. He’s finished four of his last six opponents and mostly deals in RNC wins and knockouts off the feet.
Hernandez is a submission fighter who;s gone 2-2 and 1NC for the UFC, most recently getting knocked out by Holland in the opening moments of the round. He’s won surprising submission wins over Rodolfo Vieira and Junyong Park. 
Fluffy is tough to get a bead on, but there’s one thing we know for sure, his fights end early. 

UFC 273 Betting Odds and Prop Bets

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Fremd Money Line +159
Hernandez Money Line -193
Fight Won’t Go the Distance  -450

The fight will go the distance ‘no’ bet covers most of the outcomes here. Fluffy happens to be better than the debuting Fremd? We will see a submission finish. Or, Fremd does what he does to almost everyone and finishes Hernandez in style. 

UFC 273 Odds and Prediction for Rodriguez vs Hansen

Fighter Piera ‘La Fiera’ Rodriguez  Kay Hansen 
Age 29 22
Height 5’3’’ 5’2’’
Reach/Stance 63’’ Orthodox  63’’ Orthodox 
Record 7-0 7-5
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/0 1/0

While I have no doubt that Hansen will grow into her place in the UFC, she’s still too young to be competitive physically. Rodriguez is on a vicious winning streak and has proved too have two much power for the majority of her opponents to date.

UFC 273 Betting Odds and Prop Bets

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Piera Rodriguez Money Line -115
Kay Hansen Money Line -105
Over 1½ Rounds -400
Under 1½ Rounds  +275

Piera hasn’t faced UFC level talent, and we don’t know how the octagon jitters are going to affect her fighting. I’m tentative to bet the over/under, so bet lightly on a Piera Rodriguez win at -115. 

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Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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