UFC 275 Main Card Odds and Predictions

UFC 275 Predictions And Odds

There are five fights to bet on for UFC 275’s Main Card betting odds, and we’ve detailed each of them, selecting from all betting markets to find the top picks for each fight. Our UFC 275 Main Card odds were selected from Bovada. If you’re learning to win at UFC betting online, you’ve come to the right place. We’ll break down each bet, and how we came to that conclusion. 

How to Watch and Bet on UFC 275 Main Card 

UFC 275 Main Card airs on PPV, starting at approximately 10:15 PM ET, June 11th, 2022. Bet on these five fights by clicking the place bet now buttons below each bout, linking you to The Sports Geek’s top choice for this card, Bovada.lv. 

Top UFC 275 Main Card Predictions

  • Teixeira vs Prochazka: No Decision Prop Bet -485
  • Valentina Shevchenko Money Line -650
  • Joanna Jedrzejczyk Money Line at +145
  • Bontorin Money Line +185
  • Jack Della Maddalena Money Line -165


UFC 275 Main Card Odds for Glover Teixeira vs Jiri Prochazka 

Glover is fresh off his upset of Jan Blachowicz, eight months ago at UFC 267. Glover is in the midst of a six fight winning streak, upsetting four opponents of his last eight. Jiri is a UFC newcomer, but has been professional since 2012, competing in RIZIN for the majority of his high level career. 

The Champ is the Underdog

Glover is becoming the Randy Couture of the modern era. Every time I count him out, he comes back with an upset victory. We called his win back in October over Jan, but considering the champ a second time is more difficult against the unpredictable Prochazaka. 

Main Event Tale of the Tape for Glover Teixeira vs Jiri Prochazka

Fighter Glover Teixeira  Jiri “BJP, Denisa” Prochazka 
Age 42 29
Height 6’2’’ 6’4’’
Reach/Stance 76’’ Orthodox  80’’ Orthodox 
Record 33-7 28-3-1
Submissions/TKO in Career  10/18 2/25
Sub/TKO losses in Career 0/3 1/2
Fighter Training Camp Teixeira MMA and Fitness  Jetsaam Gym BRNO 

There’s a thirteen year difference in age between the champ and challenger. Jiri has slight natural advantages in every category. He gives Teixeira only one advantage, total submission wins and losses throughout his career. For our UFC 275 main card prediction, we used fighter finishes throughout their careers, not just inside the UFC as it better reflects Jiri’s abilities. 

Teixeira MMA vs Jetssam Gym

Teixeira owns and operates the gym he fights out of.

He doesn’t have a coach to organize his camp, and creates many of his own training protocols.

He didn’t bring in any big names as with Jan, and has continued to operate classes throughout his camp, posting videos of himself coaching leading up to this bout. 
Jetsaam Gym has eight full time coaches, and while it has produced no other high level fighters, it has created up and coming prospects like Matej Penaz, a 6-0 pro MMA fighter with five knockout wins. I give Jetsaam the slight nod in the training environment, if only because having coaching staff is invaluable. 

UFC 275 Main Card Betting Odds for Teixeira vs Prochazka

Fighter  Teixeira Bet Prochazka Bet 
Money Line Odds +170 -210
Win by Submission  +300 +2500
Win by TKO +800 -165
Win by Points +650 +675
Draw  +6600 +6600

It looks as if Prochazka has a strong chance of knocking Glover out. Oddsmakers give Jiri a better chance of winning by KO than Teixeira has of winning at all. The caveat is the decision win where Glover leads slightly. If Jiri punches himself out early, perhaps Glover can recover for the decision win. The Jiri money line odds pay only slightly worse than his knockout prop, so we’ll be sticking with the safer bet. 

UFC 275 Main Card Round Betting and Over/Under Odds for Teixeira vs Prochazka

Round  Over/Yes Bet Under/No Bet 
1.5 -130 Even
2.5 +160 -210
3.5 +225 -310
4.5 +300 -450
Goes the Distance +315 -485
Jiri in Round 1,2, or 3 -120
Glover in Rounds 4 or 5 or by Decision  +400

The fight has +315 odds of going the distance, and we think it’s even less likely. Of Jiri’s last ten, all ten were knockout wins. This run includes top level fighters like Karl Albrektsson and his two UFC wins over #9 Oezdemir and #7 Reyes. 
Of Glover’s winning streak, he’s finished six fights including the knockout of Anthony Smith in round 5, May of 2020. Glover has lost three times since 2016; the Anthony Johnson knockout,  by TKO from Gustafsson, and a Corey Anderson decision. Glover has been knocked out three times, but his most impressive decision loss was to Jon Jones, somehow surviving a grueling onslaught from the champ. 

Expect Jiri to win early, or Glover to win late. 

UFC 275 Prediction and MMA Breakdown for Teixeira vs Prochazka

Prochazka’s hands down style is worrisome against Glover, a crafty veteran with weird knockout power and cumulation punching. Glover was openly training uppercuts for the majority of his camp, clearly looking to slip to the inside for counter punching against the traditional style of Prochazka. 

Prochazka has some of the best power we’ve seen in the UFC at 205. Of course, that’s also what people said about Thiago Santos, a fighter that had eleven knockout wins prior to his submission loss to Glover. Expect Glover to absorb more damage than you think he can, attempting to grind Jiri into the late rounds. 

Jiri’s career losses include a first round knockout loss to Muhammed Lawal in 2015, and two early submission losses in 2012 to local fighters, before his BJJ game had developed at all. I’m tempted to bet the knockout win for Prochazka, but I’m going the safe route. Bet the prop ‘Fight goes Distance, No’ for -485. The payout is $20.62 per $100 wager. Jiri has rarely seen decisions, win or lose and I do believe Glover has the power to finish him by submission or TKO. It’s tough to walk away from that Jiri money line, but Teixeira wins fight’s that no one thinks he can, and his odds of doing it again are higher than the betting lines are making it out to be. 

UFC 275 Main Card Odds for Valentina Shevchenko vs Talia Santos 

In our co main event, the most dominant women’s champion return to defend her belt against the #4 contender Talia Santos. Shevchenko is the #1 on the women’s PVP list, and for good reason. She’s taken the flyweight title, with six defenses since her decision win over Jedrzejczyk in 2018. 
Santos is 5-1 in the UFC, finishing her last opponent by submission. She put on striking clinics against every fighter she faced, losing only to Mara Borella for control time. 

Co-Main Event Tale of the Tape for Valentina Shevchenko vs Talia Santos 

Fighter Valentina ‘Bullet’ Shevchenko  Talia Santos 
Age 34 28
Height 5’5’’ 5’6’’
Reach/Stance 66’’ Southpaw  68’’ Orthodox
Record 22-3 19-1
Submissions/TKO in UFC 2/4 1/0
Fighter Training Camp Tiger Muay Thai  Astra Fight Team

Shevchenko gives up every natural advantage to Santos, who cuts significant weight to make the flyweight division. Two of Shevchenko’s losses have been to the same woman, Amanda Nunes at bantamweight. Valentina has never had a loss at flyweight. 

Tiger Muay Thai vs Astra Fight Team

Shevchenko has been at Tiger the majority of her UFC career. It’s one of the top gyms in the world for blending striking and grappling. They’ve truly cultivated an environment of MMA fighting, attracting fighters like Khamzat Chimaev in recent camps. 

Astra Fight has many fighters renowned in other promotions, but few who are competing at the UFC level.

Darren Till trains there when he’s in Brazil, but is primarily at his Koabon camp in England. Tiger Muay Thai gives Shevchenko a massive training advantage. 

UFC 275 Main Card Betting Odds for Shevchenko vs Santos 

Fighter  Shevchenko Bet Santos Bet 
Money Line Odds -650 +450
Win by Submission  +500 +1400
Win by TKO +200 +850
Win by Points +104 +1100
Draw  +6600 +6600

I would be surprised to see anyone take the Shevchenko by points prop bet. Santos is yet to be knocked out in her career, but Shevchenko’s power is often underestimated. Lauren Murphy, Katlyn Chookagian, and Jessica Eye had also not been knocked out prior to fighting the champion.

The money line bets on this fight are tilted toward a Santos win far more than I would have expected.

Santos has defeated one fighter in the top fifteen, #10 Joanne Wood. Manon Fiorot is still building up steam, but is the only real threat to the belt at this time.

UFC 275 Main Card Round Betting and Over/Under Odds for Shevchenko vs Santos

Round  Over/Yes Bet Under/No Bet 
1.5 -400 +275
2.5 -220 +165
3.5 -165 +125
4.5 -130 Even
Goes the Distance -121 -113

Doubting Shevchenko’s power and striking development is a mistake. Shevchenko has finished five of her last eight, each between rounds two and four. The even bet at Under 4.5 rounds captures the majority of outcomes for Valentina’s flyweight bouts. 

Talia is a decision fighter, and the UFC 275 Main Card Odds reflect that.

Against other decision fighters like Jennifer Maia, Valentina has played it safe, racking up takedowns and dolling out damage to win rounds. This is also Santos’ first five round fight ever, and for that Shevchenko may take her to deep water as a fight strategy. We’re looking mostly at the Under bet, The -400 over pays out more than Shevchenko’s money line, and the Bullet has no first round finishes. However, I’m not confident one isn’t on the way. Shevchenko is head and shoulders above Santos, I believe we could see a first round finish. I give this bet a 10% likelihood, enough to keep me away from any Over props. 

UFC 275 Prediction and MMA Breakdown for Shevchenko vs Santos 

Shevchenko’s UFC stats show better takedown ratios and less damage taken. She’s the superior grappler against top fifteen athletes, and she’s more accurate in striking exchanges overall. 

When you look at Shevchenko’s attacks, notice the shift stepping forward into takedowns. She’s developed a grappling style that plays into fighters defending her striking advances, and it’s very difficult to train for.

Santos’ BJJ isn’t a considerable threat, and her RNC win came after two knockdowns of Joanne Wood. Mostly, Talia will need to fight the distance with Shevchenko to get the nod, something even Amanda Nunes struggled to do at bantamweight in 2017, prior to Valentina’s development  into a true shootboxer and combination fighter. Bet our UFC 275 Main Card prediction, the Shevchenko money line, with confidence. It’s a -650 bet that offers $15.38 per $100 wagered ($115.38 total payout.)

UFC 275 Main Card Odds for Weili Zhang vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk

The former champs return, going head to head in a rematch to see who takes top contender status against the newly crowned Carla Esparza. Zhang lost two straight to Rose Namajunas after defeating Joanna in 2020. Jedrzejczyk has taken time off since then, recovering after going 2-4 in the UFC since mid 2017. Jedrzejczyk started her career with a six fight title defense winning streak in 2015, and looks to put the career she lost back on track. 

Tale of the Tape for Weili Zhang vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk

Fighter Zhang ‘Magnum’ Weili  Joanna Jedrzejczyk 
Age 32 34
Height 5’4’’ 5’6’’
Reach/Stance 63’’ Switch  65’’ Orthodox 
Record 21-3 16-4
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/1 0/2
Fighter Training Camp Fight Ready, Black Tiger Fight Club American Top Team

Weili is the younger, stouter fighter. She’s got a smaller frame, and because of that Jedrzejczyk landed more strikes at a distance in their first fight. Joanna has no UFC submissions, and tends to get in fights with very high striking counts. 

Black Tiger and Fight Ready vs ATT

Weili’s gyms are an interesting blend. Black Tiger is essentially a gym dedicated to her personal success and Fight Ready is her opportunity to work with Henry Cuedo one on one, and the former two division champion is an excellent coach.

Joanna switched to American Top Team in 2015, and followed that switch with three title defenses.

ATT has been a fantastic camp for her, though she’s not there year round. Neither fighter has a serious advantage in training camp, though Weili has been more consistent in spending time at these gyms over the past two years. 

UFC 275 Main Card Betting Odds for Zhang vs Jedrzejczyk

Fighter  Zhang Bet Jedrzejczyk Bet 
Money Line Odds -175 +145
Win by Submission  +1000 +1800
Win by TKO +415 +700
Win by Points +140 +175
Draw  +6600 +6600

Zhang is the favorite after winning the first fight. Joanna even has lower TKO odds, which is absurd. Zhang has one grounded TKO finish while Jedrzejczyk has two clean knockouts of Jessica Penne and Esparza. Perhaps it’s the recent performances of Joanna that have her losing favor, but the UFC 275 Betting Odds see Zhang is more likely to finish in all categories and we don’t agree. 

Weili vs Jedrzejczyk Odds History 

Joanna was a +195 in her first bout with Zhang, climbing -50 points. Joanna was the underdog against Shevchenko in her move to bantamweight in 2018 and her win over Claudia Gadelha in 2014. 
Weili has been the favorite in all UFC bouts except her win over Andrade, losing to Rose at -110 and -200. Her only submission finish was as a -550 favorite at closing. 

UFC 275 Main Card Round Betting and Over/Under Odds for Weili vs Jedrzejczyk

Round  Over/Yes Bet Under/No Bet 
1.5 -450 +300
2.5 -285 +210
Goes the Distance -225 +170
Fight to Complete 1 Full Round -800 +475

This fight should see round 2. Joanna has one first round loss to Rose, as does Weili. Zhang’s first round TKO of Andrade was fantastic, but I don’t see a repeat against Jedzejczyk. If you’re looking for a very safe bet, consider the ‘Fight to Complete 1 Full Round’ prop bet at -800. 
Zhang has seen decisions in four of her seven UFC bouts, and Joanna has seen decisions in nine of her last ten UFC appearances, 2015-2020. The UFC 275 Main Card over props look like good bets all around according to UFC stats for Joanna and Zhang. 

UFC 275 Prediction and MMA Breakdown for Zhang vs Jedrzejczyk 

In their first fight, Jedrzejczyk won on paper. She landed more shots, taking rounds 1 and 5 for certain. The other three rounds were a toss up, with judges scoring the bout for Zhang in round 5 on two score cards. The split decision loss was another example of confused MMA scoring, and judges watching two completely different fights. 
Jedrzejczyk went to the body often, landing 17% of her strikes there compared to 6% of Weili’s. I think Joanna will readjust and headhunt more often if she’s looking for the decision win. Judges in MMA score leg and body strikes low unless the opponent has a visible reaction. 

Our betting pick is the upset, Joanna Jedrzejczyk at +145. She was snubbed the first time, and seems to be refocused after her time off. Bet Jonnna’s UFC 275 odds for a payout of $145 per $100 wager. 

UFC 275 Main Card Odds for Rogerio Bontorin vs Manel Kape 

Bontorin has been on a losing streak, going 0-3 with 1 NC over his last four. His NC loss was a knockout from Kara-France that was stopped early and overturned. He faces Kape, a fighter now 2-2 in the UFC coming off back to back knockout wins. 

Tale of the Tape for Rogerio Bontorin vs Manel Kape 

Fighter Rogerio Bontorin Manel ‘Starboy’ Kape
Age 30 28
Height 5’5’’ 5’5’’
Reach/Stance 67’’ Orthodox  68’’ Southpaw
Record 16-4, 2 NC  17-6
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/1 0/2
Fighter Training Camp Gile Ribeiro Team, Team Noguchi AKA Thailand 

This is a classic striker vs grappler matchup. Bontorin gives up one inch of reach and one UFC level finish to Kape. Kape has no BJJ ranking and he’s going up against a black belt in Bontorin. Prior to his four UFC bouts, Kape was the RIZIN bantamweight champion, where he lost only once via submission.  

Ribeiro Team vs AKA Thailand

AKA’s Thailand location has attracted high level talent from all over Asia and Europe. It’s headed up by Mike Quick Swick and is still finding its hold in higher level organizations, catching fighters that didn’t make it into the Tiger Muay Thai tryouts. Ribeiro Team has produced no other high level champions, but has up and coming athletes like Matheus Salvador, a 3-0 pro with three knockouts. 
The teams are even and shouldn’t affect your UFC 275 Main Card betting picks.  

UFC 275 Main Card Betting Odds for Bontorin vs Kape 

Fighter  Bontorin Bet Kape Bet 
Money Line Odds +185 -240
Win by Submission  +450 +1600
Win by TKO +1000 +125
Win by Points +500 +235
Draw  +6600 +6600

Bontorin is the underdog, coming up short in four straight. If I were betting on Bontorin, I’d bet his submission prop bet for 4.5 times your wager, or the money line. Outside of that, UFC 275 Main Card Odds for Kape should be the focus of your predictions, determining if Kape has the sprawl to defend the high average takedown rate of Bontroin. 

Bontorin vs Kape Odds History

Rogerio Bontorin has been the underdog for all six  of UFC appearances. He upset Paiva with a first round TKO, but lost all others, ranging from +105 to +300. Kape has been the favorite twice and the underdog twice in the UFC, going 1-1 as each. He was an underdog in most RIZIN bouts, upsetting fighters like Horiguchi and Kai Asakura at +200 to +550. 

UFC 275 Main Card Round Betting and Over/Under Odds for Bontorin vs Kape

Round  Over/Yes Bet Under/No Bet 
1.5 -170 +130
2.5 +110 -145
Goes the Distance +147 -197

Both men have been 50/50 on decisions and early nights in UFC appearances. Kape has had two first round knockouts, but it doesn’t mean that his streak will last forever. He failed to finish Matheaus Nicolau, a grappler whom he was the favorite over at -125.

Bontorin’s submission game is fantastic, but his takedown controll time leaves something to be desired.

I can see them being tentative, unable to land flurries or takedowns for fear of the opponent’s game. 
As the stats suggest, our UFC 275 Main Card prediction should avoid the over/under props. They’re a coin toss at best. 

UFC 275 Prediction and MMA Breakdown for Bontorin vs Kape

Kape has failed to defeat grappler Nicolau, who’s now 6-1 in the UFC. His latest win over Zhalgas, a submission fighter with only one win in the UFC, was built on a breakneck pace and knockout strategy. 

Here’s a bit more underrated boxing from Bontroin.
Bontorin has knockout power, but his strikes absorbed averages 3.27 per minute, .8 strikes above his average delivered strikes. He has the most takedowns per fifteen minutes that Kape has faced at 2.9. Bontorin was forced into tough fights early and as a result is underrated. We see another UFC 275 Main Card upset, betting Rogerio Bontroin at +185. Our UFC 275 Main Card Prediction pays out at $185 per $100 wager ($285 total payout.) 

UFC 275 Main Card Odds for Jack Della Maddalena vs Ramazan Emeev 

The opening bout on the UFC 275 main card features a fighter undefeated in the UFC in Maddalena, facing off against Emmev. Emeev has been out since last October, losing a close decision to Danny Roberts. He’s gone 5-2 in the UFC fighting at both middleweight and welterweight. 

Tale of the Tape for Jack Della Maddalena vs Ramazan Emeev 

Fighter Jack Della Maddalena  Ramazan ‘Gortets’ Emeev 
Age 25 35
Height 5’11’’ 5’10’’
Reach/Stance 73’’ Switch 76’’ Southpaw
Record 11-2 20-5
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/1 0/0
Fighter Training Camp Scrappy MMA and Fitness Gorets MMA, ATT
Average Takedowns per 15 minutes 0/0 2.29
Significant Strikes Landed per Minute 8.4 2.52

Jack was 9-2 with nine finishes before entering into the UFC through DWCS. He gives up three inches of reach to the grappler Ramazan. Jack has landed far more strikes, but these stats are only over two total UFC bouts, including one knockout with 43 strikes landed in three minutes. 
Emeev has two losses in the UFC and three for other promotions. 

Scrappy MMA and Gorets

Gorets is a major russian camp, cross training with fighters from Emelianenko’s camp. He trains at ATT when in the USA. Scrappy is an up and coming gym that Maddalena has been with since the start of his career. He’s trained at no other top schools, and Scrappy MMA has no other major fighters. Maddalena’s first camp without a full time job was his DWCS bout, so we should see some improvements in ability moving forward. Gorets’ has a major training environment advantage.

UFC 275 Main Card Betting Odds for Maddalena vs Emeev 

Fighter  Maddalena Bet Emeev Bet 
Money Line Odds -165 +135
Win by Submission  +1600 +700
Win by TKO +250 +1100
Win by Points +200 +180
Draw  +6600 +6600

Jack has been the favorite in both UFC bouts, with no other major odds on record, ranging from -114 to -345. Emeev has been the favorite in all UFC bouts ranging from -130 to -385. This is his first time at underdog, including his losses to Roberts and Martin. 

UFC 275 Main Card Round Betting and Over/Under Odds for Maddalena vs Emeev

Round  Over/Yes Bet Under/No Bet 
1.5 -350 +250
2.5 -230 +175
Goes the Distance -182 +136

Maddalena will be looking for the knockout while Emeev racks up control time. The No Decision prop at +136 is a great way to capitalize on the Maddalena knockout power while covering your bases for any Emeev submission finishes. The UFC 275 main card odds placed Emeev’s submission win at +700, about an 8% chance of victory by sub. 

UFC 275 Prediction and MMA Breakdown for Maddalena vs Emeev 

Maddalena has never faced this level of grappler in his MMA career. Emeev has a style that the majority of athletes struggle to keep up with. His takedown percentage accuracy is only 29%, but in his last win he made nine total attempts. This breakneck pace can overcome fighters who aren’t ready for it. 

Maddalena’s power will have to make the difference for him coming into this fight.

If he can land early on, he can damage Emeev and make him tentative to close the distance. We’re predicting a narrow decision, with Maddalena getting the tip of the hat from judges who seem less interested in control time than ever before. Bet Maddalena’s money line for $60.61 per $100 wager, a $161.61 total payout. 

A laser like left hand finish from Maddalena.

Sub Categories:
Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.