UFC 275 Preliminary Card Odds and Predictions

UFC 275 Predictions And Odds Prelims

UFC 275 is just days away, and some of the best bets on the card are hidden in the prelims. The UFC 275 prelim predictions take a close look at the prop bets, fighter stats, and betting history to build your best paying UFC 275 betting ticket! 

How to Watch and Bet on UFC 275 Prelims

All seven UFC 275 Prelim fights are airing on UFC Fight Pass and ESPN+. The prelaims start at 8:00PM/ET and our betting odds have all been pulled from Bovada, one of the top sites for UFC betting online. Simply click the ‘Place Bet Now’ buttons below any fight to go straight to building your UFC ticket with Bovada. 

UFC 275 Prelim Card Predictions

Scroll to get detailed access to our betting picks and lucrative UFC 275 prelim odds for alternative bets and longshot props. Here are our top picks for each UFC 275 prelim fight. 

  • SeungWoo Choi Money Line -240
  • Brendan Allen Money Line -335.
  • Steve Garcia Jr. Money Line -175
  • Matthews vs Fialho: ‘Fight Goes to decision, No” prop -164
  • Danaa Batgerel Money Line -139
  • Na Liang Money Line +115
  • Joselyne Edwards Money Line -170


UFC 275 Prelim Card Betting Odds for Joshua Culibao vs Seung Woo Cho

Neither of these fighters have had massive success in the UFC. SeungWoo is now 3-3, losing by RNC twice over six fights. It’s clear BJJ is an issue for him. He won’t have to worry about that against Josh Culibao, a fighter with 0 takedown attempts across three fights. Joshua is 1-1-1 for the UFC, but is coming off his only win over Nuerdanbieke in May 2021. 
Culibao is a purple belt in BJJ, and I think this is the first fight we’ll see at least one takedown attempt from him. 

Tale of the Tape for Culibao vs Choi 

Fighter Josh ‘Kuya’ Culibao SeungWoo ‘Sting’ Choi 
Age 28 29
Height 5’10’’ 6’0’’
Reach/Stance 73’’ Orthodox  74’’ Orthodox 
Record 9-1-1 10-4
Submissions/TKO in UFC  0/0 0/1
Sub/TKO losses in UFC 0/1 2/0
Fighter Training Camp Igor MMA  Mob Training Center Seoul 

Choi has advantages in height and reach. He’s lost only one fight outside of the UFC. Josh has one TKO loss to Jalin Turner, a 6-2 UFC contender prospect. Neither fighter is working with a top tier MMA gym, but both schools are proficient in lower level MMA. 

UFC 275 Prelims Betting Odds for Culibao vs Choi

Fighter  Culibao Bet Choi Bet 
Money Line Odds +195 -240
Win by Submission  +1200 +2000
Win by TKO +550 +150
Win by Points +400 +175
Draw  +6600 +6600

Culibao leads in chances of submission and no other categories. That’s saying something when a fighter has zero takedowns in the UFC. 
Choi’s TKO win is backed up by his striking stats inside the UFC. 

Relevant UFC Stats

Fighter SeungWoo Choi Josh Culibao
Strikes Landed, Absorbed per Minute 3.38, 2.91 2.92, 3.05
Control Time in Last 3 3:54 2:42

Choi is in control longer, lands more shots, and takes less damage than Culibao on average. Expect Choi to win the majority of exchanges, and for a frustrated Culibao to start wrestling or swinging for the fence. 

UFC 275 Prelims Over/Under Odds for Choi vs Culibao

Round  Over/Yes Bet Under/No Bet 
1.5 -240 +180
2.5 -135 +105
Goes the Distance -115 -115

The decision prop bet is supported by both fighters in history. Choi has won two fights via decision in the UFC and Culibao has only one decision win. Neither fighters have shown much promise as finishers, though both have lost via finish within their last three bouts. The -240 over 1.5 rounds prop is no better than the goes the distance prop, as both fighters have losses and wins regularly inside 2:30 of round 2. 

UFC 275 Predictions and MMA Breakdown for Choi vs Culibao

At a distance, Choi looks better than Josh. His boxing is cleaner, more accurate and all around better trained. As with Turner and Jourdain, range finding was an issue for Culibao even though he had the reach advantage over Jourdain. The lanky Turner saw Josh land only twelve strikes. 

Culibao has been bullied in the clinch in two UFC fights. He doesn’t look physical, and Choi will manhandle fighters that aren’t prepared to threaten with takedowns. Even in losses against Caceres and Tucker, Choi was winning on strikes and the takedown and BJJ moments of the fight was the saving grace. Here we see Josh losing in the clench and threatening no groundwork. 

Our betting pick is the SeungWoo Choi Money Line at -240. This pick’s UFC 275 Prelims odds payout at $41.67 per $100 wager, a $141.67 net. 

UFC 275 Prelim Card Betting Odds for Jacob Malkoun vs Brendan Allen

Allen has lost two fights over his last five, totalling 7-2 in the UFC> he’s proving himself one of the better grapplers in the middleweight division, but has the tendency to fumble against decent strikers. Malkoun is a grappler in the same bout, losing to Phil Hawes by TKO in just eighteen seconds. He’s won his last two with fourteen total takedowns taking him to 2-1 in the UFC. 

Tale of the Tape for Malkoun vs Allen 

Fighter Jacob ‘Mamba’ Malkoun Brendan ‘All In’ Allen
Age 26 27
Height 5’9’’ 6’2’’
Reach/Stance 73’’ Orthodox  75’’ Orthodox 
Record 6-1 18-5
Submissions/TKO in UFC  0/0 4/1
Sub/TKO losses in UFC 0/1 0/2
Fighter Training Camp PMA Super Martial Arts Centre Sanford MMA 

Allen is a black belt in BJJ and Malkoun is a Brown belt. He gives up five inches of height but only two of reach. Malkoun will look to get under Allen, focusing on takedowns and ground control for the majority of the fight. It’s a nice change of pace for Allen, who’s grown accustomed to fighters avoiding his ground game altogether. 

UFC 275 Prelims Betting Odds for Malkoun vs Allen

Fighter  Malkoun Bet Allen Bet 
Money Line Odds +255 -335
Win by Submission  +650 +200
Win by TKO +600 +350
Win by Points +600 +275
Draw  +6600 +6600

The UFC 275 Prelim Odds favor Allen in every category. 
Malkoun’s best chance of winning is his by point prop bet at +600. Allen is a strong favorite, and his by Submission odds at +200 are the best odds on the card for a submission win. The Malkoun by decision prop bet is a fantastic bet for fans of Mamba, but I see Allen winning this bout, even if it means playing the kickboxer as he did against Punahele Soriano. 

Allen vs Malkoun Betting History

In losses, Allen was -305 and -121, upset by Curtis and Strickland. He was the underdog against Soriano, Tom Breese and Kevin Holland, crushing all three from +110 to +140. Malkoun has ranged from +130 to +260 and has been the underdog in all three UFC appearances, though he peaked at -118 against Aj Dobson. Allen has fallen from -340, so hold out until just before the prelims for the best UFC 275 prelims betting odds on his money line. 

UFC 275 Prelims Over/Under Odds for Malkoun vs Allen

Round  Over/Yes Bet Under/No Bet 
2.5 +120 -155
Goes the Distance +154 -210
Fight Completes One Full Round -300 +220
Winning Round, 2 +300

Malkoun has seen two decisions among wins at the UFC level. Allen has seen only two decisions in the UFC across nine fights, including his two knockout losses. Against fellow grappler Kyle Daukaus, Allen decided to strike, winning a decision that included a knockdown. When Allen isn’t the superior wrestler, he will force the grappler to come forward into strikes, initiate a clinch and break toward the center of the ring, starting the strategy over again. Expect that game plan against Malkoun. 

UFC 275 Predictions and MMA Breakdown for Malkoun vs Allen

Here is some footage of Malkoun training striking. It’s not fantastic, or on Allen’s level. The UFC stats see Allen landing at an average 4.39 strikes per minute, a full strike more than Malkoun’s 3.53, most of which are landed on the ground. With Allen’s reach and height advantage, Malkoun’s striking technique will need to have improved dramatically to be competitive. 

Allen’s submission threat is enough to stop the majority of fighters from reckless takedowns. His last two finishes have been off the opponent’s grappling attempts, including the counter leg lock he landed on Karl Roberson in the closing seconds of round one. This counter attacking style is tough to prepare for. 

Our UFC 275 prelims prediction is the Brendan Allen money line at -335. Allen’s UFC 275 prelim odds payout at $29.85 per $100 wager, a net $129.85 payout. 

UFC 275 Prelim Card Betting Odds for Steve Garcia Jr. vs Hayisaer Maheshate 

Meheshate is fresh off a decision win in DWCS, facing the 1-1 in the UFC Steve Garcia. Garcia also won a DWCS UFC contract with a first round TKO win. Garcia has the advantage in knockout power and grappling work, while Maheshate has shown only striking. 

Tale of the Tape for Maheshate vs Garcia Jr. 

Fighter Hayisaer Maheshate  Steve Garcia Jr. ‘Mean Machine’ 
Age 23 30
Height 6’0’’ 6’0’’
Reach/Stance 71’’ Orthodox  75’’ Southpaw 
Record 8-1 12-4
Submissions/TKO in UFC  0/0 0/2

Garcia has a significant reach advantage at four inches, which should mean more in a southpaw versus orthodox battle. Maheshate is still gathering experience, and the majority of his bouts outside the UFC were decision wins. Expect Garcia to have advantages in power and striking at range. Maheshate will have to come with the right game plan to take this fight. 

UFC 275 Prelims Betting Odds for Maheshate vs Garcia Jr. 

Fighter  Maheshate Bet Garcia Jr. Bet 
Money Line Odds +144 -175
Win by Submission  +2500 +400
Win by TKO +265 +220
Win by Points +450 +325
Draw  +6600 +6600

Garcia is the favorite in every category, and for good reason. He’s looked fantastic in his two wins, while Maheshate gave up round one in dramatic fashion during his DWCS win. Garcia’s loss to Pena doesn’t count for much against Maheshate. Pena is a 5-3 contender on the verge of top fifteen status. 

UFC 275 Prelims Over/Under Odds for Maheshate vs Garcia Jr.

Round  Over/Yes Bet Under/No Bet 
1.5 -135 +105
2.5 +135 -175
Goes the Distance +173 -230
Fight Completes 1 Round  -250 +185
Winning Round 3 +550

Oddsmakers give the top odds to a round 2 finish from Garcia jr. He finished Torres in round 1and Ontiveros in round 2 and has multiple round 2 knockouts outside of the UFC. Maheshate has more decisions than stoppages, sorting three KO wins outside of the UFC each over losing record or debuting fighters. A round three finish from either man has a +550 payout,  but Maheshate has never been finished and it’s tough to judge his chin without seeing a knockout. 

UFC 275 Predictions and MMA Breakdown for Maheshate vs Garcia Jr. 

Garcia has fantastic striking defense at this level. Even Pena landed only 27 significant strikes. Garcia’s average strikes absorbed per minute in 2.2, compared to Maheshate’s 3.2 in the fight he won. Garcia’s focus on ground striking and forward moving aggression limit the opponent’s opportunities for building momentum. 

Maheshate’s striking is unrefined. He’s slow for his size and if Garcia is able to work inside his height, we’ll see more of this. Maheshate has knockout power, but he failed to demonstrate it against Estremadura. 

Our UFC 275 prelims prediction is the Steve Garcia Jr. money line. He’s the more complete fighter, he’s fought better competition overall, and he’s racking up knockout finishes for the UFC already. Our UFC 275 money line odds payout at $57.14 per $100 wager. 

UFC 275 Prelim Card Betting Odds for Jake Matthews vs Andre Fialho 

Fialho is back after just one month off. He defeated Cameron VanCamp in his debut in the first round. The Celtic Kid is coming off a loss to Sean Brady after winning six of seven. He’s 10-5 in the UFC with bouts ranging back to 2014. 
Fialho has the advantage in knockout power, and Matthews will be hunting the submission. 

Tale of the Tape for Matthews vs Fialho 

Fighter Jake ‘The Celtic Kid’ Matthews  Andre Fialho 
Age 27 28
Height 5’11’’ 6’0’’
Reach/Stance 73’’ Orthodox  74’’ Orhtodox 
Record 17-5 16-4, 1 NC
Submissions/TKO in UFC  4/1 0/2
Fighter Training Camp XLR8 Training Center Sanford MMA 

Fialho is the larger fighter, and Matthews has the advantage in UFC level finishes. Matthews has been finished inside the UFC four times, but only once via TKO back in 2016. For your UFC 275 Prelims betting pick, expect Fialho to have the striking advantage and for Matthews to be forced to find takedown early on. 

UFC 275 Prelims Betting Odds for Matthews vs Filaho 

Fighter  Matthews Bet Filaho Bet 
Money Line Odds +123 -150
Win by Submission  +600 +2000
Win by TKO +1100 +104
Win by Points +235 +450
Draw  +6600 +6600

Oddsmakers are relying heavily on Filaho’s chances at a knockout for his favorite status. Matthews isn’t so easily put down. His +123 underdog position isn’t rare for him, and Matthews has accumulated multiple upsets. 

Matthews vs Fialho Betting History 

Fialho was very involved in UAE Warriors, LFA, PFL and XMMA. IN these various organizations he ranges from -659 to +240 in an upset win over James Vick. In the UFC, Filaho lost as a +250 underdog to Pereira, but has bounced back in a +162 and -450 showing. Matthews’ last three wins were as a -164 to -700 favorite. He lost to Brady at +187 and Rocco Martin at -150. His biggest upset wins include Li Jinglang at +130 and Johnny Case at +105. 

UFC 275 Prelims Over/Under Odds for Matthews vs Fialho 

Round  Over/Yes Bet Under/No Bet 
1.5 -165 +125
2.5 EVEN -130
Goes the Distance +125 -164

Filaho has seen one decision inside the UFC and only two decisions in his last ten fights. Matthews has six decisions over fourteen fights throughout his UFC career. As he becomes more well rounded, he’s started to prefer going the distance. 
For our UFC 275 Prelims predictions, we’re steering clear of the Over 1.5 rounds prop, despite Matthews eleven of fourteen bouts that fit the bill. 

UFC 275 Predictions and MMA Breakdown for Matthews vs Fialho 

Fialho is on a way path, and his knockout of Baeza showed just how quickly his punching power can turn the tide of a fight. However Pereira had no trouble exchanging with Fialho, so it’s clear footwork and positioning determine how cleanly Fialho lands his shots. My concern is late in the fight, with all that muscle, Fialho slows way down especially while grappling. 

Matthews needs to take advantage of this, and look to put Fialho down one his back in rounds two and three, while weathering the round one storm from Fialho. Many analysts are leaning heavily toward a Fialho win, but it depends on Matthews willingness to force the long game. 

Our UFC 275 prelims prediction is the No Decision prop at -164. I think Matthews has a chance at a submission late in the fight, and Fialho will look to finish early as usual. While Matthews is more likely to lose, the ‘Fight Goes to decision, No” prop bet pays well and covers the majority of outcomes for both fighters. The No Decision prop at UFC 275 prelims odds payout at $60.98 per $100 wager. 

UFC 275 Prelim Card Betting Odds for Danaa Batgerel vs Kyung Ho Kang

Kang is 6-3, 1NC in the UFC after his November decision loss. He faces the 3-2 in the UFC Batgerel Danaa, with an 80% fight finishing rate among five UFC bouts. 
Danaa’s three wins account for only 5:51 of total time in the octagon.  

Tale of the Tape for Danna vs Kang

Fighter Batgerel ‘Storm’ Danaa Kyung Ho Kang ‘Mr. Perfect’ 
Age 32 34
Height 5’7’’ 5’9’’
Reach/Stance 70’’ Orthodox  73’’ Orthodox 
Record 12-3 17-9, 1 NC
Submissions/TKO in UFC  0/3 3/0
Sub/TKO losses in UFC 0/1 0/0
Fighter Training Camp Jackson WInk MMA  Busan Team MAD

Kyung is the larger fighter and has never been finished in the UFC. All other aspects are equal. Danaa is at a more proven training center in Jackson Wink MMA, but since the recent pseudo retirement of Greg Jackson’ we’ve seen less new Jackson Wink fighters entering the top ten. 

Busan team is home to Seo Hee Ham of TUF and Doo Ho Choi among other Korean standouts. 

UFC 275 Prelims Betting Odds for Kang vs Danaa

Fighter  Kang Bet Danaa Batgerel Bet 
Money Line Odds +115 -138
Win by Submission  +700 +1800
Win by TKO +1200 +175
Win by Points +200 +250
Draw  +6600 +6600

Kang is the underdog against the newcomer, with Danaa’s knockout power threatening to sleep the UFC veteran. The Danaa knockout prop at +175 is a fantastic bet, matching all three of Danaa’s UFC wins. 

Danaa vs Kang Odds History

Batgerel has only been the underdog once, in his loss to Heili Alateng in his UFC debut. Outside of that +100 closing, Danaa has ranged from -124 to -200 in the UFC. Kang was the favorite in his loss to Yahya at -112 in his last bout. He lost his last bout as underdog to Ramos at +205, but upset Tanaka at +140 in 2014. In all other UFC bouts, Kang has been the favorite ranging from -190 to -350. In this bout’s opening, Kang was the favorite, and odds have fluctuated back and forth. 

UFC 275 Prelims Over/Under Odds for Danaa vs Kang

Round  Over/Yes Bet Under/No Bet 
2.5 -125 -105
Goes the Distance -105 -125

If you’re looking at the no decision prop bets and under, you’re betting on a Danaa KO or a Kang submission. Kang has seen six decisions, winning three since the start of his UFC career, while Danaa lost his debut to a grappler via decision. Kang will look to recreate the Alatengheli game plan, though Danaa was robbed in that bout according to the new paradigm of MMA damage focused judging. 

UFC 275 Predictions and MMA Breakdown for Kang vs Danaa

Kang is huge at Bantamweight. It’s unclear if he’ll ever learn to utilize his range effectively against smaller 135’s. Here he’s putting on some of his best striking against Yahya, but it’s not something we want to see him doing against Danaa. Exchanging close will cost you against Danaa’s wide, looping power. 

Danna is fully prepared to march in combinations. His wide swinging gets through small openings in fighters’ guards. More importantly, once he smells blood he’s willing to pour on twenty and thirty strike combinations until the fight is over, letting no opportunity go to waste. 

Our UFC 275 prelims prediction is Danaa Batgerel money line at -139. Batgerel pays out at $71.94 per $100 wager. 

UFC 275 Prelim Card Betting Odds for Na Liang vs Silvana Gomez Juarez 

Liang is coming off a losing UFC debut where she was knocked out in the first round. She faces the now 0-2 Juarez, a fighter that’s been submitted in the first round twice in the UFC. One fighter will walk away with their first UFC win. 

Tale of the Tape for Liang vs Juarez 

Fighter Na Liang ‘The Dragon Girl’  Silvana ‘La Malvada’ Gomez Juarez 
Age 25 37
Height 5’5’’ 5’3’’
Reach/Stance 67’’ Orthodox  65’’ Orthodox 
Record 19-5 10-4
Sub/TKO losses in UFC 0/1 2/0

Outside of the UFC, was on a six fight winning streak before entering the UFC. She’s won six of her nineteen wins via submission for other local Chinese promotions. Juarez is from Entram gym, and has five finishes for XFC and Invictus. Juarez has been a pro fighter since 2010, when Liang was just 13. 

UFC 275 Prelims Betting Odds for Liang vs Juarez

Fighter  Liang Bet Juarez Bet 
Money Line Odds +115 -140
Win by Submission  +175 +750
Win by TKO +700 +275
Win by Points +900 +275
Draw  +6600 +6600

Juarez is the favorite despite being twelve years older than Dragon Girl. Liang’s submission odds are much greater after Juarez’s back to back losses.

UFC 275 Prelims Over/Under Odds for Liang vs Juarez

Round  Over/Yes Bet Under/No Bet 
1.5 -125 -105
Goes the Distance +200 -275

Neither fighter has seen a UFC decision yet. In their career outside of the UFC, Liang has seen only one decision in 24 bouts. Juarez has seen three in 14. 

UFC 275 Predictions and MMA Breakdown for Liang vs Juarez

Dragon girl was focused on takedowns, scoring three in just 6:38 of total fight time against Carnelossi. I don’t think Juarez has the power to knock her out, and she’s struggled against BJJ athletes so far. Juarez has landed an average 1.95 strikes per minute, barely making it out of the feeling out stage in either UFC bout. I see Na Liang taking this fight. Her money line pays out at $115 per $100 wagered for an upset win. This is the top paying of our UFC 275 Prelims odds picks. 

UFC 275 Prelim Card Betting Odds for Joselyne Edwards vs Ramona Pascual 

Edwards is 1-2 in the UFC, with three decision bouts. She’s facing Pascual, who’s 0-1 in the UFC. Her last fight ended a three fight finishing streak and four fight winning streak. 

Tale of the Tape for Edwards vs Pascual

Fighter Joselyne ‘La Pantera’  Edwards Ramona Pascual 
Age 26 33
Height 5’8’’  5’7’’ 
Reach/Stance 70’’ Orthodox  66’’ Southpaw
Record 10-4 6-3

Edwards is the larger, younger fighter. She has more fight experience and more finishes overall. Ramona trains at Syndicate MMA, one of the world’s top MMA schools, while Edwards is at Kings MMA, quite possibly the best school for taking fighters from outside the top fifteen to the cusp of contendership. 

UFC 275 Prelims Betting Odds for Edwards vs Pascual

Fighter  Edwards Bet Pascual Bet 
Money Line Odds -170 +140
Win by Submission  +600 +900
Win by TKO +500 +750
Win by Points +125 +275
Draw  +6600 +6600

Edwards is the favorite. Her three UFC performances have been close, outstriking Jessica Rose Clark in her last loss, and a very close decision loss against wrestler Karol Rosa. Pascual is leading in no prop bet categories. 

UFC 275 Prelims Over/Under Odds for  Edwards vs Pascual

Round  Over/Yes Bet Under/No Bet 
1.5 -400 +275
2.5 -230 +175
Goes the Distance -190 +143

With the decision imminent, the over prop bets are confident but pay the least. Both fighters come from a history of career finishes over lower level talent, and Edwards will likely be dominant in her performance. 

UFC 275 Predictions and MMA Breakdown for Edwards vs Pascual 

We see Edwards striking driving the pace of the match. Pascual was out struck by Nunes 2:1 in her UFC debut, and Edwards has a similar rate of fire and style, with an additional three inches of reach. Edwards finds her opponents backing up often, leading to strange striking exchanges. 

Rosa showed just how weak Edwards grappling is, but I have no doubt the 26 year old fighter is fixing those mistakes at KIngs MMA. Edwards is early in her career, and has plenty of room to develop as an athlete as she moves through the ranks.

Our UFC 275 prelims pick is Joselyne Edwards at -170, a $58.82 payout per $100 wager. She’s the better striker, at the right camp, with the frame advantages over Pascual. 

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Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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