UFC 276 Main Card Odds and Predictions

UFC 276 Predictions And Odds

The Stylebender hopes to defend his Middleweight title again versus #2 contender, Jared Cannonier. As if that wasn’t exciting enough, Volkanovski defends his lightweight title against Max Holloway. The odds are surprisingly narrow for these two repeat defending champions. 
UFC 276 airs on July 2nd, 2022 in Las Vegas T-Mobile Arena. The UFC 276 main card is scheduled to start at 10:00 PM ET. 

UFC 276 Odds 

Here are the UFC 276 Main Card odds, covering our top picks for all four main card bouts. The odds are from Bovada, one of our top choices among UFC betting sites

  • Israel Adesanya -425 vs Jared Connonier +295: Adesanya Money Line -425
  • Max Holloway +159 vs Alexander Volkanovski -200: Volkanovski Money Line -200
  • Sean Strickland +105 vs Alex Pereira -125: Strickland Money Line +105
  • Pedro Munhoz +215 vs Sean O’Malley -280: O’Malley Money Line -280


UFC 276 Betting Odds 

Let’s get a detailed look at all four bouts. This will be the sixth defense for Israel Adesanya and the fourth for Volkanovski. It’s also Volk’s rubber match with Holloway. Volk was the underdog in the first bout, and hasn’t moved position despite clear wins over Holloway in both fights. 
Strickland vs Pereira should produce a Middleweight #1 contender, while O’Malley faces the toughest test of his career in #10 Bantamweight Munhoz.

Israel Adesanya -425 vs Jared Cannonier +310

Adesanya is a bigger favorite against Cannonier than he was in any other title defense. From his two bouts with Whittaker as the champion, ranged from -275 down to -111. Jared has been the favorite in his last five, including the loss to Whittaker in 2020 at -120. 

Jared Cannonier Odds History

Cannonier’s last upsets include Jack Hermansson at +235 and David Branch at +265. Both of these fights were immediately after his drop from 205 to 185 in 2018. 

Adesanya vs Cannonier Method of Victory Props 

Bet  Adesanya Odds Cannonier Odds 
Points, Decision +125 +650
Knockout +160 +500
Submission +1400 +2000
Draw  +6600 +6600
Money Line -425 +310

Israel’s UFC 276 odds show a strong chance of winning across all categories. Cannonier’s decision prop win pays five times Izzy’s. 

UFC 276 Over/Under Betting Odds for Adesanya vs Cannonier 

Round Bet  Over, Yes Odds  Under, No Odds 
1.5 -350 +250
2.5 -200 +150
3.5 -150 +115
4.5 -120 -110
Will the Fight Go the Distance  -110 -121

Israel’s last knockout was Paulo Costa in 2020, three fights ago. He’s seen five 5-round decisions as the champion, and two finishes. Both were in the second round. 
At Middleweight, Jared has finished four of his six fights in the first and second round. He lost a three round decision to Whittaker and won a five round decision over Kelvin Gastelum. 

Izzy’s best moment’s are during an opponent reaching inside the pocket, punching up at the champ.

Over Under Pick for Adesanya vs Cannonier

We’re looking closely at the Over 1.5 rounds. Adesanya enjoys a long fight winning narrow rounds. Both fighters have a tendency to finish by round two if at all. The Over 1.5 rounds offers a better payout than Adesanya’s money line. It’s the right UFC 276 betting odds pick for fans of Cannonier. 

Tale of the Tape for Adesanya vs Cannonier 

Fighter Israel ‘The Stylebender’ Adesanya  Jared ‘The Killa Gorilla’ Cannonier 
Age 33 38
Height 6’4’’ 5’11’’
Reach/Stance 80’’ Switch 77’’ Switch
Record 22-1 15-5
Submissions, TKO in UFC 0, 4 0, 6
Fighter Training Camp City Kickboxing  MMA Lab 
Losses via TKO 0 2

Neither fighter has shown submission ability in the UFC. Adesanya has a host of natural advantages, including a slight reach advantage and major height advantage. Cannonier is aging, and there’s no telling when he’ll fall out of his prime. Both fighters only have losses inside the UFC. 

Adesanya vs Cannonier UFC Stats  

Fighter   Israel Adesanya Jared Cannonier 
Strikes Landed, Absorbed per Minute  3.84, 2.56 3.76, 3.29
Takedown Accuracy, Defensive Percentage  0, 72% 50%, 63%
Takedowns in Last 3 0 1
Total Strikes Landed in Last 3 319 210
Strikes Landed Against Whittaker in Recent Fight 98 58

The UFC 276 odds reflect the stats. Notably, Adesany’s low strikes absorbed per minute stat. In his one loss to Jan, it was clear that Israel needed to work on his grappling technique and strength once downed. Israel has a higher defensive takedown percentage than Cannonier’s low offensive percentage. Expect Cannonier to spend plenty of time swinging at air. 

Our Prediction: Israel Adesanya Money Line -425

Israel is the better fighter overall, and plays it safe. He’ll maintain the UFC title winning decisions against power punchers, and laying waste to anyone who comes in with a low enough striking defensive percentage: Costa was 48%, Wilkinson was 39%. Be wary of the under props and bet the Izzy money line for $23.53 per $100 wagered in winnings.

Max Holloway +158 vs Alexander Volkanovski -200

The rubber match pits Volkanovski against Holloway for the third time in three short years. Volkanovski has been the underdog only once in his UFC career; against Holloway in fight #1. Holloway has seen underdog status against Ortega in 2018, Jose Aldo in 2017, and Cub Swanson in 2015. He upset all three ranging from +100 to +140. 

Holloway vs Volkanovski Odds History

Keep in mind, Volkanovski won both bouts. 

Odds for Fights  Holloway  Volkanovski 
Fight 1 Opening Odds  -145 +175
Fight 1 Closing Odds -189 +170
Fight 2 Opening Odds  +165 -190
Fight 2 Closing Odds  +190 -230
Fight 3 Opening Odds  +124 -146
Fight 3 Current Odds  +170 -180

Fans of Holloway move the betting lines in a big way. He lost both fights 1 and 2 in definitive fashion. The UFC 276 odds  reflect the trend of an inflated sense of Holloway’s capability. 

Volkanovski vs Holloway Method of Victory Props 

Bet  Volkanovski Odds Holloway Odds 
Points, Decision +104 +275
Knockout +350 +550
Submission +1400 +2000
Draw  +6600 +6600
Money Line -200 +158

If you think the first two fights were this close, you should rewatch them. Volkanovski lands the more damaging blows in nearly every round, and the long right hands deemed significant for Holloway glanced off Volkanovski’s forehead. 

Betting Picks for Holloway Fans

We know you’re going to bet the money line, and that’s okay. Promise us you won’t parlay it? The UFC stats for the first two fights, their recent performances, and Volkanovski’s improvements in kickboxing all point to another title defense for the champion. 

“The best boxer in the UFC.”

UFC 276 Over/Under Betting Odds for Volkanovski vs Holloway 

Round Bet  Over, Yes Odds  Under, No Odds 
1.5 -750 +450
2.5 -400 +275
3.5 -310 +225
4.5 -220 -165
Will the Fight Go the Distance  -200 +150

Both of their first fights were five round decisions. Holloway has seen only five round decisions for his last six fights, and both fighters have fourth round TKOs- Holloway of Ortega and Volkanovski of Korean Zombie. 
Be wary of the late over, but betting the Over 2.5 rounds prop for $25 in winnings per $100 wagered is a good strategy for a parlay. Volkanovski had no reason to change the game plan, it served him two fights in a row. 

Tale of the Tape for Volkanovski vs Holloway 

Fighter Alexander ‘The Great’ Volkanovski  Max ‘Blessed’ Holloway 
Age 33 30
Height 5’6’’ 5’11’’
Reach/Stance 71’’ Switch  69’’ Orthodox 
Record 24-1 23-6
Submissions, TKO in UFC 0, 4 3, 8
Fighter Training Camp City Boxing, Tiger Muay Thai  Gracie Technics 

Holloway has him beat in every category physically, yet Alex has outboxed him time and again. Volkanovski was able to land more significant strikes from distance despite his height disadvantage in both of the first two fights. Alexander Volkanovski, Prochazka and Usman are the only current UFC champions to have never lost another fight inside the UFC.

Volkanovski vs Holloway UFC Stats  

Fighter   Alexander Volkanovski Max Holloway 
Strikes Landed, Absorbed per Minute  6.63, 3.32 7.38, 4.69
Takedown Accuracy, Defensive Percentage  36%, 70% 66%, 84%
Takedowns in Last 3 7 3
Control Time in Last 3  8:09 7:16

After the back to back losses to Volkanovski, Holloway started integrating control time into his game plan, accumulating none in their bouts and only 24 seconds in the three fights before his back to back matches with Alexander. 

Betting on the Stats

Volkanovski is more relentless when it comes to takedown work, and winning rounds is his bread and butter. Holloway thinks he’s “The best boxer in the UFC” and fights accordingly. This limited approach of focusing on boxing hasn’t worked against Volkanovski twice, and I fear we’re in for a three-peat that looks exactly like fights one and two.

Volkanovski vs Holloway Bouts 1 and 2 

Fighter  Stats, Rounds Won in Fight 1  Scorecard, Rounds Won in Fight 1  Rematch Stats, Rounds Won in Fight 2  Scorecard, Rounds Won in Fight 2 
Alexander  4 3 2, 3
Holloway  1 2 2 2, 3

Alexander landed early and often in fight one, fading in round 4. The judges favored Holloway in round 2 despite his losing significant strikes by six. The second fight was closer, but the split decision was due to some strange scoring from David Lethaby, who gave Max round 5 after he was out boxed 37 to 23 significant strikes. 

Alexander Volkanovski Money Line -200

The odds put this fight at a 67% chance of success, despite his already beating Max back to back. Across both bouts, Alexander has out struck Holloway by a total of 57 significant strikes. I don’t think Max is ready for another loss, and Volkanovski was top notch in his performance against Chan Sung Jung. 
Winnings for the UFC 276 odds  on Volk’s money line are $50 per $100 wagered. 

Sean Strickland +105 vs Alex Pereira -125

Stickland is on a six fight winning streak after a TKO loss to Eilzei dos Santos. He’s been the underdog twice, upsetting Nordine Taleb and Brendan Allen at +110. Pereira has been the favorite his whole recorded MMA career. He’s only had two UFC bouts, but his claim to fame is having knocked out Israel Adesanya in a kickboxing match in Glory of Heroes, 2017. He’s still the only man to ever put Izzy out. 

Strickland vs Pereira Method of Victory Odds 

Bet  Strickland Odds Pereira Odds 
Points, Decision +275 +400
Knockout +380 +135
Submission +900 +2500
Draw  +6600 +6600
Money Line +105 -125

Strickland by submission is an interesting bet. Pereira’s UFC loss was a choke in 2015. No one has really tested his submission game since then. Pereira only has advantages in the knockout win prop bets. Expect Strickland’s gameplan to reflect the UFC 276 odds; He’s not going to brawl with Pereira. 

Strickland vs Pereira Over Under Odds

Bet Over, Yes Under, No 
1.5 Rounds  -170 +130
Will the Fight Go the Distance  +140 -185

Strickland’s UFC knockout loss, and the only KO loss of his career, happened by head kick early in round one. Since then, we’ve seen a more conservative Strickland, doing more work in the clench and keeping his opponent’s strike count low. Pereira hasn’t been quick to swing in his first two showings. His knockout was in round 2, and he was happy to chip away at Bruno Silva for a decision win in March. I’d bet the Over 1.5 rounds prop between the two. 

Tale of the Tape for Strickland vs Pereira 

Fighter Sean Strickland  Alex ‘Poaton’ Pereira 
Age 31 34
Height 6’1’’ 6’4’’
Reach/Stance 76’’ Orthodox  79’’ Orthodox 
Record 25-3 5-1
Submissions, TKO in UFC 1, 3 0, 1
Fighter Training Camp Syndicate MMA, Various Teixeira MMA and Fitness 

Alex is the slightly larger man. He’s also much more versed in kickboxing. Strickland has more UFC finishes, but Alex has a 33-7 pro kickboxing record with 21 KOs and an amatuer record we were unable to verify. 
Strickland is at Syndicate, one of the best gyms in the world for establishing a game plan. 
UFC 276 main card odds put Pereira as the most likely knockout winner of the evening. 

Strickland vs Pereira UFC Stats  

Fighter   Strickland Pereira 
Strikes Landed, Absorbed per Minute  5.53, 1.16 5.86, 3.05
Takedown Accuracy, Defensive Percentage  61%, 85% 0, 73%
Takedowns in Last 3 4 0
Control Time Given in Last 3  0:31 7:14

Keep in mind this is only accounting for Alex’s two fights in the UFC. No fight stats are available for his other MMA bouts, or really any of his kickboxing career. 
Strickland is a fantastic defensive striker for MMA. He keeps his hands high, and doesn’t let many things through. Against Uriah Hall, Strickland scored 7 minutes of control time. That’s half the fight spent chipping away at the superior striker.

Strickland now carries his right hand high and tight. You can see the differences in stance after this fight.  

Sean Strickland Money Line +105

Pereira is mostly untested. His giving up 15% of the fight in control time against two fighters that have little UFC experience isn’t a great sign for how he’ll look against Strickland. He’s going to give up control time and rounds along with it. I think a submission loss is possible. 

Pedro Munhoz +215 vs Sean O’Malley -280

The O’Malley hype train faces another moderate challenge in Munhoz. Pedro has gone 1-4 over his last five. O’malley has ranged from -145 to -500 in his UFC run, losing to Marlon Vera at -275. Munhoz has shown massive finishing power and holds upset wins over Cody Garbrandt, Rob Font, Justin Scoggins and Jimmie Rivera ranging from +120 to +155. 

O’Malley vs Munhoz Over Under Odds

Bet Over, Yes Under, No 
1.5 Rounds  -220 +165
2.5 Rounds  -120 -110
Will the Fight Go the Distance  +104 -145

The UFC 275 main card has yet another fight where the Under is a favorite bet. Munhoz has seen five decisions in a row, ranging back to 2019. O’Malley has seen six knockouts in a row all since March 2020. Munhoz has never been knocked out, and while O’Malley has fantastic power, I think the Over 1.5 rounds is  a good bet. Pedro is moving up in age and hasn’t scored a finish since 2019, over Garbrandt after he’d been knocked out back to back by Dillashaw. 

Tale of the Tape for Munhoz vs O’Malley 

Fighter Pedro ‘The Young Punisher’ Munhoz  ‘Sugar’ Sean O’Malley 
Age 36 27
Height 5’6’’ 5’11’’
Reach/Stance 65’’ Orthodox  72’’ Switch 
Record 19-7, 1 NC  15-1
Submissions, TKO in UFC 3, 3 0, 6
Fighter Training Camp American Top Team  MMA Lab, Sanabul 

Sugar is the larger framed fighter, younger, with a massive seven inch reach advantage. Pedro has the same number of UFC finishes, but a 35% finishing rate compared to 66.7% UFC finishing rate from O’Malley. UFC 276 main card odds put Munhoz as the second biggest underdog bet, next to Jared Cannonier. 

‘Munhoz vs O’Malley UFC Stats  

Fighter   Pedro Munhoz Sean O’Malley
Strikes Landed, Absorbed per Minute  5.5, 6.09 8.26, 2.52
Takedown Accuracy, Defensive Percentage  20%, 81% 50%, 64%
Takedowns in Last 3 0 0
Control Time in Last 3  0:23 0:09 

Munhoz has failed to use his grappling at a high level, despite being a BJJ and Judo black belt. The most concerning stat is the 6.09 strikes absorbed per minute. This is alongside a  58% striking defense. Munhoz draws out rapid exchanges from his opponent’s as he moves forward to get into range. 

O’Malley shift steps with the reach advantage to cover massive ground and react quickly.

Sean O’Malley Money Line -280

O’Malley offers winnings of $35.71 per $100 wagered. He’s a rising star that the UFC is handling like a baby, hand picking opponents for more and more knockouts as Sugar develops his MMA game to handle top fighters. 
O’Malley only loses this fight on the ground, and Munhoz hasn’t shown the grappling side of his game since Damian Stasiak in 2017. UFC 276 odds of  -280 puts Sean at a 73.3% chance of winning and I’d say it’s closer to 80%. 

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Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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