UFC Betting Picks of the Week

Michelle Waterson and Angela “Overkill” Hill - UFC Fight Night Logo - UFC Octagon

We have been sniping our picks lately, guys. I know you want a lot of action, though. It’s just that these cards are being thrown together like the first South Park characters.

All the last-minute this and that. Debut after debut. It’s hard!

Today, I want to give you guys my most valuable picks for the week.

  • Michelle Waterson and the first black female to headline a UFC event, Angela “Overkill” Hill, will be scrapping in a pretty evenly matched main event.
  • The co-main event is a sleeper fight of the night between UFC newcomers and knockout artists Ottman Azaitar of Morocco and Pittsburgh’s Khama Worthy.

Roxanne Modafferi and Andrea Lee are rematching each other and Lee is the huge favorite this time around even though she lost the first go-round.

Matt Frevola and Roosevelt Roberts are quite evenly matched and opposed stylistically. I love that matchup so much! Both men are brown belts in BJJ.

Roberts has a great guillotine to counter the incredible explosive double leg takedowns of the college wrestler out of Tampa, Matt Frevola.

The matchup between Matt Schnell and Tyson Nam is rather interesting as well.

Schnell is the better technical fighter but has been knocked out several times in his career while Tyson is coming off of a name-worthy performance where he knocked his opponent out in the first round.

Tons of interesting matchups! What does that mean for betting purposes, though? Well, it means the fights are harder to call. That isn’t good but there are several strong positions for us to put our cash.

BetOnline.AG has those betting lines that are trying to hide from us. Let’s find them.


Jalin Turner + Alexander Romanov: -121

I don’t want to say this is free money but… Jalin Turner is the much better fighter than his opponent, Brock Weaver.

Brock’s original opponent, Frank Camacho, tested positive for COVID after testing positive several weeks ago then testing negative, then positive again.

The tests are designed to be very sensitive and they will pick up the smallest amounts of corona in your system. If yesterday was taco Tuesday down at your local El Burritos and you had a ‘Rona Rita with your meal, you might fail your next COVID-19 test.

Weaver was a big underdog in that fight and I rank Jalin Turner a level higher than Frank Camacho.

I would line Turner as a (-450) favorite honestly so the near 3 to 1 odds we are getting is plenty good enough for a parlay piece.

Alexander Romanov had our pick and my money was waiting on him to smash Rogerio de Lima last week but another pull out for whatever reason led him to fight Roque Martinez this Saturday night.

I watched this Roque guy and he is a 5’10 heavyweight with about 100 extra pounds of fat.

He has only really beaten some Japanese guys he had outsized. He is a stocky guy like Romanov so “King Kong” may not have the giant center of gravity advantage he is used to.

I still think he is going to truck this dude, though. Roque has skinny legs and something tells me he isn’t a wizard off of his back.

Bet this one with enthusiasm.

Pick: Romanov and Turner

Add on Billy Quarantillo To Pay +158

All day, guys.

Billy Q is one of the most well rounded and most skilled newcomers in the UFC. I am thoroughly impressed with the man’s skill set and his heart speaks for itself.

A fighter who gets stronger as the war intensifies and wanes on, BJJ blackbelt Billy Quarantillo gets better. And more aggressive.

Please Note:
The second he sees his opponent begin to gas, he clicks off the cruise control, shifts down, and quickly picks up the pace. That’s when his opponents begin to break or maybe they stay strong mentally but still can’t breathe well enough to fight properly.

Either way, Billy Q is on you.

His opponent, Canada’s Kyle Nelson, is a very big featherweight that has some power in his hands. He slows down, though, considerably after the first round and is a great matchup for Quarantillo.

Billy has won 7 fights in a row and including his Contender Series win, the last 3 have been in the UFC.

Spike Carlyle hits harder and is much more explosive than Nelson not to mention a way better wrestler than Nelson, and Billy was able to weather the Alpha Ginger and win a unanimous decision.

This is Billy’s fight to lose.

Pick: Romanov + Turner + Quarantillo

Straight Pick

Angela Hill: -115

When I first heard about this fight, I was all over Angela Hill in my head.

I thought she would open around (-150) and then move to (-180) or even a 2 to 1 favorite come fight time. I wasn’t far off from the opening (-170). I can understand some money coming in on the Karate Hottie at (+145).

Angela will have the 2-inch reach advantage and when you’re 5’4”, that counts significantly more. She is also the better defensive fighter believe it or not when you consider Michelle’s non-committal style of kicking the air.

I am leaning towards Angela Hill here for sure. Her striking defense edge of 64% to 48% is big.

This one should play out on the feet and Angela has the range, the defense, and the more powerful strikes, in my opinion than Waterson.

Michelle is one of the prettiest women I have ever seen and her warm personality is intoxicating with cheer. With that being said, I have to ignore her smile and take Hill here.

She was (-170) and we are getting her at nearly even money. I would say that is good value there.

This is a close fight. Don’t get me wrong but it’s lined so closely that you only need a 60/40 lean either way to make a play.

Pick: Hill


In Conclusion

There you go, team!

I feel great about the parlay and you have an edge on the books for the main event.

Honestly, I wouldn’t even bother with the first parlay. Billy Q is a better fighter than Kyle Nelson and getting an 80% boost on the betting odds is a no brainer. The only sportsbook currently offering the betting odds on Romanov and Turner is BetOnline.AG.

These guys are very likely to win, in my not always humble opinion.

As for the straight pick, Hill vs Waterson is going to be a very good fight.

If Angela was a (-150) or more favorite, I would probably stay away. I think she takes 6 out of 10 should these ladies fight that many times hypothetically under Saturday night’s circumstances.

Get your bets in now, guys, and don’t put too many units on Angela Hill.

The parlay, though…

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Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.