UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic Odds and Picks

Blachowicz Vs Rakic UFC Sat May 14

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs Rakic is days away, and we’re previewing the entire 11 fight card. The UFC on ESPN 36 odds, stats and expert betting picks below are everything you need to make an educated betting pick for May 14th, 2022 on Bovada or another one of the top UFC betting sites

UFC on ESPN 36 Odds for Blachowicz vs Rakic

Our headline fight features the former champion against #3 in the division, Aleksandar Rakic. Jan Blachowicz was a -250 favorite in his loss to now champion Glover Teixeira. He defeated Reyes, Adesanya, and Rockhold as the underdog in three of his last six showings with each hovering around +200. 

Aleksandar Rakic’s Betting History

Rakic was the favorite in his last four showings, losing to Volkan Oezdemir at -143. Rakic is 6-1 in the UFC overall, and has been the underdog only once in a brutal beating of Justin Ledet at +100. 

UFC on ESPN 36 Betting Odds Table for Blachowicz vs Rakic

Bet Available at Bovada Odds  
Blachowicz Money Line +145
Rakic Money Line -175
Blachowicz by Points  +450
Rakic by TKO  +250
Over 1.5 Rounds  -275
Over 2.5 Rounds -165
Under 2.5 Rounds  +125
Over 3.5 Rounds  -115
Under 3.5 Rounds  -115

Rakic is a moderate favorite. He’s finished his opponent in two of his six wins, and has only competed once per year since 2020. His last TKO victory was in 2019, though he knocked down Anthony Smith in their three round decision. I would say the +250 chance of a Rakic knockout is far too low to consider. Jan has won three of his last six via knockout finish. Many see him getting a decision win if anything, but Jan is consistently underrated both by oddsmakers and bettors

Over Under Betting on Blachowicz vs Rakic

Jan has four second round finishes inside the UFC, and two finish losses in the second and third rounds. Rakic has only two first round finishes. While I think either man can get the finish, I see a fight that drags on. Rakic came out with a moderate pace in his last two fights, but it’s nothing that Jan hasn’t seen. There is little evidence of a first round finish. 

UFC on ESPN 36 Prediction for Blachowicz vs Rakic 

Blachowicz is more dangerous than people make him out to be, and Rakic is a decision fighter with the occasional flashy knockout. This is a recipe for a long night. 

Tale of the Tape for Blachowicz vs Rakic

Fighter Jan Blachowicz Aleksandar Rakic 
Age 39 30
Height 6’2’’ 6’4’’
Reach/Stance 78’’ Orthodox  78’’ Orthodox 
Record 28-9 14-2
Submissions/TKO in UFC 2/4 0/2
Fighter Training Camp Berkut WCA Fight Team  American Top Team, Gym 23
Strikes Landed/Absorbed Per Minute 3.5/2.7 4.2/2.2
Takedown Average per Fifteen Minutes  1.14 .75

Look first at these fighters striking defense. Only 2 significant strikes per minute landed on average. Neither fighter is letting through punches that change the bout. Against the right kind of grappler, Jan can struggle, but he often dominates fighters like Rakic in the clinch. I feel that Rakic has a slight advantage in striking power and youthful durability, but not enough to put money on him. 

Blachowicz vs Rakic Betting Prediction

Our betting pick goes to the over 1.5 rounds prop bet at -275. This prop pays out $36.36 per $100 wagered. Both fighters can finish, but neither fighter is likely to do it early, especially in Rakic’s first five round fight for the UFC. 

UFC on ESPN 36 Odds for Smolka vs Grant 

Smolka has struggled in the bantamweight division, going 1-1 over his last six fights. He’s due for a win. Smolka was a -154 favorite in his last loss to Morales, and a -120 in losses to Quinonez and Schnell.
Grant is on a two fight skid as the underdog, losing to Vera and yanez at +188 and +245 respectively. His last winning streak included three underdog upsets. Let’s see if he can do it again. 

UFC on ESPN 36 Betting Odds Table for Smolka vs Grant 

Bet Available at Bovada Odds  
Smolka Money Line +225
Grant Money Line -285
Over 1.5 Rounds -120
Under 1.5 Rounds  -110
Over 2.5 Rounds  +120
Under 2.5 Rounds  -155

Grant is the favorite for the first time in five fights. Oddsmakers see an early finish, which makes sense given Smolka has been finished or finished the opponent in his last six fights, with ten UFC bouts total not going the distance. 

Over Under Betting for Smolka vs Grant

Grant has seen three decisions and three finishes in his last six bouts, and coupled with Smolka’s kill or be killed record, we have the makings of a short bout. Smolka last saw a decision against takedown artist Matheus Nicolau in what turned out to be a vicious beating in 2017. Grant’s 1.7 takedowns per fight shouldn’t be enough to slow the blistering pace. The under 2.5 is one of the better bets on the card. 

UFC on ESPN 36 Prediction for Smolka vs Grant 

Grant’s takedown ratio alongside Smolka’s 31% takedown defense makes this fight concerning for stand up fans. I think we could see quick submissions from either side, as their submission work is often better than their defenses; both fighters have lost and won by submission more than twice. 

When Smolka is on, he’s brilliant.

Smolka vs Grant Betting Pick

I think that Grant will win the fight, but Smolka will dictate the pace of the action. For that, we’re looking at the under 2.5 rounds prop bet for -155 odds and a $65 return per $100 wager. Grant rarely looks to win a decision, it just so happens that some fighters go the distance with him.

UFC on ESPN 36 Odds for Torres vs Camacho 

The odds history shows Camacho as the underdog in over half of his UFC appearances. He’s won twice, finishing Nick Hein as a slight favorite in 2019, and Damien Brown at -124 in 2017. Camacho faces Torres, a 1-0 UFC newcomer from DWCS who won as a +155 underdog. Her UFC on ESPN 36 odds reflect her dire circumstance. 

Camacho Close to Being Cut

Joining in 2016, Camacho is currently 2-5 in the UFC. If he drops the ball to a DWCS debut fighter, he’s likely to be cut. This can turn some fighters into animals, forcing the action. Simultaneously, Camacho has been finished twice in the first round. 

UFC on ESPN 36 Betting Odds Table for Camacho vs Torres 

Bet Available at Bovada Odds  
Camacho Money Line +110
Torres Money Line -134
Over 1.5 Rounds -150
Under 1.5 Rounds  +115
Over 2.5 Rounds  +150
Under 2.5 Rounds  -200

Camacho is the underdog only slightly, with the unproven Torres having lost twice outside of UFC competition. He is due for the underdog position after losing as a -280 favorite to Justin Jaynes. 

Over Under for Camacho vs Torres

Camacho has been finished or finished his opponent for his last four fights straight. Torres earned a first round knockout at DWCS over Kolotn Englund, but the under 2.5 Rounds odds don’t pay enough to be considered. Torres looks like the top pick, given his payout and young athletic ability. 

UFC on ESPN 36 Prediction for Torres vs Camacho 

Expect Torres to come out sharp and Camacho to look the best we’ve seen him since fighting  Nick Hein. He still took 37 strikes in two rounds in that fight, and Torres took away one of Camacho’s main tools- the reach advantage. In fights where Camacho isn’t the lankier man he gets ran over. 

Betting pick for Manuel Torres Money Line

Torres money line pays $75 per $100 wagered. They’re clearly elevating this kid, and hope that Camacho can bow out gracefully after yet another highlight knockout loss. We should capitalize on this play. 

UFC on ESPN 36 Odds for Hill vs Jandirroba 

Hill has fought for the UFC 19 times since 2014. Recently, she’s lost four of five. Three of these were as the underdog, +142 to +250. She was upset by Waterson at -152 in 2020. 
Jandirroba is a UFC newcomer at 3-3. She lost to Ribas and Dern as the underdog +140 to +150, and beat Murata at -138. Oddsmakers and the betting line have called all six of her bouts correctly. 

UFC on ESPN 36 Betting Odds Table for Hill vs Jandirroba 

Bet Available at Bovada Odds  
Hill Money Line +133
Jandirroba Money Line -165
Over 1.5 Rounds -450
Under 1.5 Rounds  +300
Over 2.5 Rounds  -260
Under 2.5 Rounds  +190

Jandirroba is the favorite, and I agree with based on fight footage but her record tells another story.. She wins by finish but struggles in decision victories. Hill has seen her last six fights go to decision, eight of her last ten. If Angela can wear on Jandirroba, she can force a long clinch fight that could go either way. 

Over Under for Hill vs Jandirroba

Hill goes to decision and finishes late in victory, with her last two stoppages coming in the second and third rounds. Jandiroba has finished twice in the second round and once in the first round inside the UFC. 
Both fighters point to the -450 Over 1.5 rounds prop being a good bet. Stay away from the under, as Hill loves a decision. 

Jandirroba demonstrating her power early.

UFC on ESPN 36 Prediction for Hill vs Jandirroba

Hill wins in close and Virna wins at a distance. Yes, Virna has better offensive BJJ but Hill’s ground striking is far superior. Virna has beaten the old guard of UFC strawweights like Felice Herrig, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Hill joined her. 

Betting Pick for Hill vs Jandirroba

I think Jandirroba will win, but the Over 1.5 Rounds prop bet is still a better bet. I’m confident we’ll see either a late second round finish or a decision, possibly Jandirroba’s first decision win. 
Our Over pick pays out $22 per $100 wager.

UFC on ESPN 36 Odds for Taira vs Candelario 

Taira is a UFC newcomer, the undefeated athlete we mentioned in our last preview. He was a -225 in the first match but has risen to -245. 
Candelario lost his last showing in DWCS at +200, winning his first as a +185. He’s dominated the CES scene, as well as winning bouts for Titan FC in 2017. 

UFC on ESPN 36 Betting Odds Table for Taira vs Candelario 

Bet Available at Bovada Odds  
Taira Money Line -240
Candelario Money Line +193
Over 1.5 Rounds -185
Under 1.5 Rounds  +140
Over 2.5 Rounds  -115
Under 2.5 Rounds  -115
Tatsuro Taira by Points  +225
Taira by Submission +225

Taira is a strong favorite, mostly due to an underground hype train that is picking up steam. Shooto fans know Taira for his 80% finishing rate, and a 70% finishing rate in round 1. 

Over Under Betting for Taira vs Candelario

Taira has a high finishing percentage, as does Candelario. Outside of the UFC he’s finished nearly every opponent, with his only decisions coming at CES on Fight Pass and DWCS. His recent loss was to Victor Altamirano, a submission fighter who just lost his UFC debut. 
The under is a good bet, but I’ll stay away from it because we don’t know how Taira will fair fighting under the UFC pressure. Either fighter could buckle and end up hunting a safe decision win. 

UFC on ESPN 36 Prediction for Taira vs Candelario 

Taira is yet to meet the fighter he couldn’t best. I think Candelario is among the toughest he’s faced, and certainly the fighter with the most consistent finishing rate. Still, fight footage shows that Taira is something special inside the ring, and his Shooto run makes him look superhuman. If he lives up to the hype, we’ll have a Jon Jones at men’s 125. 

Betting Taira Money Line

The Tatsuro Taira money line pays out at -240, a $42 per $100 wagered payout on an undefeated fighter with a bright future. We may see his second decision win for his debut, so tread lightly on prop betting. 

UFC on ESPN 36 Odds for Cutelaba vs Spann

Spann lost to Smith and Walker as a +110 underdog, recently beating Cirkunov at +125. He gets his fourth fight in a row as the underdog against Cutelaba. Ion has gone 5-5-1 in the UFC since 2016. He’s coming off a -125 win over Devin Clark after being upset by Dustin Jacoby as a -120 favorite. He took back to back losses to Ankalaev as the underdog. 

UFC on ESPN 36 Betting Odds Table for Spann vs Cutelaba 

Bet Available at Bovada Odds  
Spann Money Line +172
Cutelaba Money Line -218
Over 1.5 Rounds +115
Under 1.5 Rounds  -150
Over 2.5 Rounds  +230
Under 2.5 Rounds  -325
Will the Fight Go the Distance, No -425

Spann has been finished three times in the UFC, and Ion Cutelaba has won three of his five wins by finish. Collectively, they’ve had only six decisions in their twenty total UFC bouts. The Under looks good. Spann has had no problem beating some of the UFC’s older athletes, and at 29 and 27, these two fighters are still finding their rhythm against the UFC’s upper ranks. 

UFC on ESPN 36 Prediction for Spann vs Cutelaba 

Ion is going to seek the takedown, full stop. Ryan’s 60% takedown defense is lackluster, but it’s what helped him finish Sordi and Devin Clark in 1st and 2nd round guillotine finishes. Ion will hunt the double leg, Ryan will jab and fish for submissions. 

Betting the ‘Will the Fight Go the Distance, No’ Prop

These two fighters have a 75% chance of finishing or being finished. Ion isn’t immune to submissions, losing to Cirkunov and Teixeira by choke. Spann hasn’t fought this level of wrestler yet, and will spend time pressured to the fence. For that, we bet the no decision prop, earning $24 per $100 wager. 

UFC on ESPN 36 Odds for Petroski vs Maximov 

Maximov is undefeated, a middleweight grappler that was the underdog in his last bout against Soriano at +166, smashing him just months ago. Petroski is 7-2, and 2-0 in the UFC. He’s been the favorite in both fights from -143 to -430. 
Maximov is a huge favorite and rightfully so. We’re looking closely at the fight tape for weaknesses Petroski will look to exploit. 

UFC on ESPN 36 Betting Odds Table for Maximov vs Petroski 

Bet Available at Bovada Odds  
Maximov Money Line -450
Petroski Money Line +335
Over 1.5 Rounds -310
Under 1.5 Rounds  +225
Over 2.5 Rounds  -165
Under 2.5 Rounds  +125

Petroski is the biggest underdog of his career in this fight. He lost to grappler Bryan Battle in TUF 28 by choke, and his LFA loss to Aaron Jefferey was via ground strikes. I know that Petroski has a high quality BJJ game, but Maximov should beat him at every turn. 

Over Under for Maximov vs Petroski

Petroski scored two third round finishes in his last two fights at UFC level, and generally starts slower than most fighters. Maximov has only won by decision in any UFC or DWCS appearance, and for that the Over 1.5 rounds at -310 is a great bet. 

UFC on ESPN 36 Prediction for Petroski vs Maximov

I think Petroski can scramble out of a lot of what Maximov brings to the table. Maximov has never landed many strikes. Against Cody Burndage he only landed 14 significant shots to Brundages 28. It’s clear we’re in for a long bout. 

Betting Pick for Maximov vs Petroski

We’re taking the Over 1.5 rounds betting pick. Petroski is dangerous. I can see him weathering the storm and forcing repeated stand ups to hunt for submissions off Maximov’s takedown work. Also, it pays more than the Maximov money line, and with no finishes, it’s easy to guess his outcomes. The Over pays out $32 per $100 wager. 

UFC on ESPN 36 Odds for Chookagian vs Ribas 

Chookagian is on a three fight winning streak, ranging from +225 to -182. She’s only ever lost to champion level opponents in the UFC, including a title loss to Shevchenko, Andrade, and Carmouche. 
Ribas is 5-1 for the UFC, her only loss coming to Marina Rodriguez at -330. She’s upset Dern and Whitmire at +160 and +170. 

UFC on ESPN 36 Betting Odds Table for Chookagian vs Ribas

Bet Available at Bovada Odds  
Chookagian Money Line -175
Ribas Money Line +145
Over 1.5 Rounds -450
Under 1.5 Rounds  +300
Over 2.5 Rounds  -250
Under 2.5 Rounds  +185

Ribas is a slight underdog, if only because this is her first time fighting top tier talent. Her performances in the UFC have been solid, including two quick finishes, and a 74 strikes to 20 beating of Mac Dern. Chookagian was knocked out by Andrade and by Shevchenko in 2020, but she’s never been submitted in her career. 

Over Under for Chookagian vs Ribas

Chookagian is a decision winner, and Ribas has seen four decisions in seven appearances. The Over is the favorite, and for good reason. However, both fighters have failed in tests to their chin. For that, we’ll stay away from the Over. Chookagian hits hard, and I think eventually she’ll develop TKO power, or find the right victim for it. 

UFC on ESPN 36 Prediction for Chookagian vs Ribas

Ribas has an average 2 takedowns per fight. Given Chookagian’s low defense stat, we’ll see some ground work that drags out the bout. Chookagian always wants a slug fest, and has never been in a dull fight. I see this being one of the largest challenges to Ribas to date. If we could bet on performance bonuses, I’d wager this fight would get Fight of the Night. 

Betting Chookagian’s Money Line

Our betting pick is Katlyn Chookagian at -175. The UFC on ESPN 36 odds are being generous to Ribas, and this veteran should be closer to -300. Lets advantage that discrepancy for a payout of $57 per $100 wager.

UFC on ESPN 36 Odds for Hadley vs Nascimento 

Underdog Nascimento has lost both UFC appearances. He’s put on a good show, going to decisions as a +320 and +180. He gets his 3rd UFC fight against Hadley, a DWCS winner via RNC in round 2 as a -290 favorite. 
Hadley is from Cage Warriors, where he smashed champion Luke Shanks to maintain his undefeated record. 

UFC on ESPN 36 Betting Odds Table for Hadley vs Nascimento

Bet Available at Bovada Odds  
Hadley Money Line -210
Nascimento Money Line +168
Over 1.5 Rounds -240
Under 1.5 Rounds  +180
Over 2.5 Rounds  -145
Under 2.5 Rounds  +110

Hadley is an easy choice for this lopsided bout, and a highlight reel welcome for the undefeated grappler. The Under 2.5 is a decent choice given the +110 payout and Hadley’s 5/8 finishing record. Hadley lost twice as an amatuer in decisions, leaving some to question his finishing ability, but his striking has come leagues away from past seven years of competition. 

You have to respect that kind of foresight.

UFC on ESPN 36 Prediction for Hadley vs Nascimento

Nascimento’s 16% takedown defense and average 3.3 strikes absorbed per minute across two bouts leaves him with little to offer against Hadley. White Kong has a high rate of activity and consistent threats of submission to set up ground strikes from top and bottom.

Betting the Hadley Money line

Hadley pays out at $48 per $100 wagered. Expect a Hadley finish, but only bet on the Under if you’re open to a slight risk. Hadley is a great addition to your parlay ticket.

UFC on ESPN 36 Odds for Patrick vs Johnson 

Patrick is coming off a No Contest and two losses, twice as the underdog and once as a strong favorite. He was 5-1 in the UFC before his recent losing streak, and has suffered two knockout losses in the UFC. 
Johnson is on a four fight losing streak after beating Artem Lobov. He was the favorite in all four bouts ranging from -107 to -250. He was also upset by Elkins, Nate Diaz, Beniel Dariush, Madadi, and Miles Jury. I don’t know if I can name another UFC fighter with nine UFC upset losses. 37% of Michael Johnson’s fights end in upset losses. 

UFC on ESPN 36 Betting Odds Table for Patrick vs Johnson

Bet Available at Bovada Odds  
Patrick Money Line +115
Johnson Money Line -140
Over 1.5 Rounds -310
Under 1.5 Rounds  +225
Over 2.5 Rounds  -175
Under 2.5 Rounds  +135
Will the Fight Go the Distance, Yes -155

Patrick has only one knockout win in the UFC, while Johnson hasn’t knocked anyone out since Porier in 2016. It’s tough to tell if this is a decision waiting to happen because both fighters get finished at a high percentage. Johnson has been finished in six of his last eight losses, and Patrick in two of his last three. 

UFC on ESPN 36 Prediction for Patrick vs Johnson

Johnson seems to have lost something and is riding out his career with the UFC. He doesn’t look like the same motivated knockout artist from six years ago, and his submission game is now notoriously bad. At 35 years old, Johnson is up there for a lightweight, a division noted for its speed and athletics.

Here’s a fight Johnson should have won on paper.

Upset Pick for Alan Patrick

Our betting pick is Alan Patrick. His double your money bet aligns with many of Michael Johnson’s outcomes. Patrick averages 3.2 takedowns per fight, and Johnson’s atrocious submission defense may become a factor.

UFC on ESPN 36 Odds for Lee vs Araujo 

Lee is coming off her TKO upset of Calvillo. She also upset Antonia Shevchenko at +104, breaking a three fight losing streak. Araujo is now 4-2 in the UFC coming off a +115 loss to Chookagian. 

UFC on ESPN 36 Betting Odds Table for Lee vs Araujo 

Bet Available at Bovada Odds  
Lee Money Line -115
Araujo Money Line -105
Over 1.5 Rounds -500
Under 1.5 Rounds  +325
Over 2.5 Rounds  -325
Under 2.5 Rounds  +230

Lee is coming off her first set of UFC stoppages, while Araujo hasn’t scored one since a third round finish of Bernardo in her 2019 UFC debut. The Over looks like the right bet having seen the full career of both fighters, but something is in the water over at the Andrea Lee camp, leading to two second round finishes and dominant performances. 

These are two dangerous women, both like to start slow and pick up steam.

UFC on ESPN 36 Prediction for Lee vs Araujo 

Both Lee finishes came late in the second round, and given their collective tendency toward long bouts, we’re looking at the OVer 1.5 Rounds prop bet at -500. This fits all of their UFC appearances to date and pays out $20 per $100 wagerd. 

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Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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