UFC on ESPN 39 Dos Anjos vs Fiziev Odds and Predictions

Dos Anjos Vs Fiziev July 9

We’ve gathered the UFC on ESPN 39 odds on all twelve fights. We’re looking at the props and stats to put together a confident pick for each bout. 

How to Watch and Bet on UFC on ESPN 39

Prelims for UFC on ESPN 39 air at 6:00 PM ET on July 9th, 2022. You can watch the fights on ESPN+, and bet on any bout by clicking the Place Bet buttons under each of our predictions. For UFC on ESPN 39 odds we’ve chosen Bovada, one of the top sites for UFC betting online

UFC on ESPN 39 Predictions

  • Rafael Dos Anjos Money Line +183
  • Borralho Money Line -240
  • Parlay Pick: Nurmagomedov Money Line -335
  • Vanderaa vs Sherman: Under 2 ½ Rounds -165
  • Calvillo by Submission or Decision -135
  • Johnson vs Mullarkey: Fight Goes to Decision, No -235
  • Upset Pick: Zahabi +160
  • Shevchenko Money Line -185
  • Brundage Money Line +125
  • Onama Money Line -800
  • Nzechukwu vs Roberson: Fight Goes to Decision, No -164
  • Lawrence vs Kakhramonov: Under 2 ½ Rounds +145


 UFC Fight Night Main Event: Rafael Dos Anjos vs Rafael Fiziev 

Dos Anjos is 3-2 over his last five. He fell short against Edwards and Chiesa, but his recent win over Moicano was a classic performance. He’ll need his A-game against Fiziev, who’s now 5-1 in the UFC, featuring a 33% UFC finishing rate. 

Tale of the Tape for Dos Anjos vs Fiziev 

Fighter Rafael Dos Anjos  Rafael ‘Ataman’ Fiziev 
Age 37 29
Height 5’8’’ 5’8’’
Reach/Stance 70’’ Southpaw 71’’, Switch
Record 31-13 11-1
Submissions, TKO in UFC 4/4 0/2
Fighter Training Camp Evolve MMA, Nova União Sanford MMA 

Fiziev seems to have far less experience until you consider his 39-8 professional kickboxing career. At the UFC level, Dos Anjos is a BJJ force, which could be trouble for Fiziev who is still only a blue belt in BJJ. The fighters are close in stats, save for Dos Anjos being eight years older. 

Comparing Evolve and Sanford

Sanford is one of my choice schools for fighters that want to learn counter wrestling for MMA. In Dos Anjos best performances, he’s focused on getting the takedown. Evolve MMA in Thailand is home to fighters like Roger Gracie and Amir Khan. It’s a top level camp, but it really is the Tiger Muay Thai B-team.  

Dos Anjos vs Fiziev Betting Odds Table 

Bet Available at Bovada Odds  
Dos Anjos Money Line +183
Fiziev Money Line -230
Over 2 ½ Rounds -285
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +210

Fiziev’s momentum gives him the advantage in this bout. This is still one of his first fights against a top level UFC fighter, with Riddell and Green being outside the top fifteen. The UFC on ESPN 39 odds are in Fiziev’s favor, hinting at a 69.7% chance of victory. 

Average Fight Length for Fiziev and Dos Anjos 

RDA has seen four decisions in a row, and nine of his last ten fights were decisions as well. Fiziev has two finishes and has lost via TKO. Twice, these were in the first round. His last fight with Riddell ended in round 3.

Top UFC on ESPN 39 Prop Betting for Dos Anjos vs Fiziev

Here we’ve gathered our list of top prop betting prospects. 

Top Bet  Odds
Over 1.5 Rounds  -500
Dos Anjos by Submission or Decision  +210
Fiziev by TKO or Decision -190
RDA in Round 4, 5 or Decision +200
Fiziev in Round 1, 2, or 3  +200

RDA has a better chance of submission late in the fight. He’s seen five rounders before, and tends to win the final rounds even more aggressively. He’s only ever lost five round decisions to superior wrestlers. The Over props are really bets for RDA. 

Top Fiziev Props

Fiziev will look for the knockout early, and he just might get it. Dos Anjos has been finished three times in the UFC by Alvarez and Stephens in the first and third round respectively. Fiziev has that kind of power, but I don’t know if he has the takedown defense to use it. 

Dos Anjos vs Fiziev UFC Stats For Betting Picks 

Fighter   RDA  Fiziev 
Strikes Landed, Absorbed per Minute  3.62, 3.24 5.35, 5.57
Takedown Accuracy, Defensive Percentage  37%, 58% 50%, 95%
Takedowns in Last 3 11 0
Control Time in Last 3  28:14 0:21

Clearly, Fiziev is the sprawl and brawl fighter. He keeps a higher pace, and has a fantastic takedown defense. RDA gets hit less often overall, and has racked up nearly a half hour of control in just three fights. 

Prediction: Rafael Dos Anjos Money Line +183

RDA is one of the better grappler athletes in the UFC. He’s struggled against top UFC talent, but against rising stars he’s still a consistent fight winner. Fiziev has to defend the takedown, because he’s still green when it comes to defending submissions. Bet RDA for $183 of winnings per $100 wagered. 

UFC on ESPN 39 Co-Main Event: Caio Borralho vs Armen Petrosyan 

Caio was one of our early DWCS calls, and he’s been on a tear ever since. His last win in April has put him in the path of Petrosyan, who’s 1-0 in the UFC after a DWCS knockout win last October. Borralho’s style doesn’t take much damage, so it will be interesting to see it play out against the breakneck pace of Petrosyan. 

Tale of the Tape for Borralho vs Petrosyan

Fighter Caio ‘The Natural Borralho Armen ‘Superman’ Petrosyan
Age 29 31
Height 5’10’’ 6’3’’
Reach/Stance 75’’ Southpaw  71’’ Orthodox 
Record 11-1, 1 NC 7-1
Submissions, TKO in UFC 0, 1 0, 1
Fighter Training Camp Fighting Nerds, Varied  Academy MMA 

Petrosyan has a four inch height advantage but shorter reach. He fights out of Academy MMA, a gym that runs the local Russian scene at FMC and ACA, but few fighters have jumped to the UFC. Borallho works with various coaches all over the world, most recently finishing his camp at Combat Club in Brazil. 

Borralho vs Petrosyan Betting Odds Table 

Bet Available at Bovada Odds  
Borralho Money Line -240
Petrosyan Money Line +190
Over 2 ½ Rounds +110
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -145

Petrosyan is the more exciting fighter, so it’s a surprise to me that he’s the underdog. The Over prop looks good considering that they collectively have more UFC/DWCS decisions than finishes. 

Borralho vs Petrosyan Top Prop Bets

Bet Odds
Over 1.5 Rounds  -170
Borralho by TKO or Decision -120
Petrosyan by TKO   +275
Borralho by Points +240
Borralho in Round 3 +900
Fight Completes 1 Full Round  -275

I feel that Borralho will look to fight the long game. He manages distance well and stifles powerful opponent’s with takedowns. Petrosyan will constantly look for the TKO, and his fans may as well bet on his finish prop. Borallho is more likely to win late or by decision, and his round 3 finish is lucrative, a prop I’d give a 25% chance of success. 

Light, traditional styles are tough to prep for.

Borralho vs Petrosyan UFC on ESPN 39 Stats For Betting Picks 

Fighter   Caio Borralho  Petrosyan 
Strikes Landed, Absorbed per Minute  3.66, 1.7 7.56, 3.39
Takedown Accuracy, Defensive Percentage  80%, 75% 0, 37%
Takedowns in Last 3 4 0
Significant Strikes Absorbed in Last 2 16 66

Borralho has the stats to stalemate Petrosyan early and do real damage late in the fight. Petrosyan has been taken down five times in two fights, winning only because of aggressive stand up exchange, which Borralho is bent on neutralizing. 

Prediction: Borralho Money Line -240

Expect Borralho to win a methodical fight with accurate kicking and takedowns. His moneyline pays at $41.67 in winnings per $100 wagered. If our UFC on ESPN 39 prediction isn’t lucrative enough for you, consider the Borralho in Round 3 prop at +900. 

UFC on ESPN 39 Parlay Pick: Douglas Silva de Andrade vs Said Nurmagomedov 

Andrade is now 6-4 in the UFC after back to back finishes of Morozov and Perrello. He’s fallen to some of the best fighters in the division including Yan and Font. Nurmagomedov is now 4-1 in the UFC, finishing three fighters in his UFC run. His last two finishes happened in a collective 1:38.  

Tale of the Tape for Andrade vs Nurmagomedov 

Fighter Douglas Silva de Andrade  Said Nurmagomedov 
Age 37 29
Height 5’7’’ 5’8’’
Reach/Stance 68’’ Orthodox  70’’ Orthodox 
Record 28-4, 1NC  15-2
Submissions, TKO in UFC 1, 2 1, 2
Fighter Training Camp Corinthians MMA, Various  DagFighter, Fight Club Akhmat 

Andrade is a smaller framed fighter. Said has double Andrade’s UFC finishing percentage, and his loss to Barcelos was a very close fight. He landed more significant strikes than Barcelos at 55 to 42. DagFighter is a top tier MMA camp, but Corinthians MMA has only ever produced Andrade and the PFL’s Bruno Cappelozza. 

Andrade vs Nurmagomedov Betting Odds Table 

Bet Available at Bovada Odds  
Andrade Money Line +255
Nurmagomedov Money Line -335
Over 2 ½ Rounds +105
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -135

The last time Douglas was this big of an underdog was against Murphy and Yan, both fights he lost definitively. The under is a strong bet given the last two fights for both fighters being finishes. However, Nurmagomedov has only lost by decision. It’s doubtful that Andrade will be the first man to put him away. 

Andrade vs Nurmagomedov Top Prop Bets 

Bets  Odds
Under 1.5 Rounds +140
Nurmagomedov by Sub or TKO  +100
Andrade by Points  +500
Nurmagomedov by Points  +245
Nurmagomedov in Round 2 +450

All three of Nurmagomedov’s finishes have been in the first round, though Andrade’s losses via finish were both late in the second. Either fighter could take home the decision here, but we see Said as the only fighter with real finishing potential. Said in Round 2 is our top longshot prop, and would commit to it far before an Andrade decision win. 

Andrade vs Nurmagomedov UFC Stats For Betting Picks 

Fighter   Andrade  Nurmagomedov
Strikes Landed, Absorbed per Minute  3.83, 4.19 4.75, 2.35
Takedown Accuracy, Defensive Percentage  45%, 68% 7%, 77%
Takedowns in Last 3 1 0
Significant Strikes Absorbed in Last 3 85 46

Nurmagomedov is leading in nearly every category except takeown accuracy. His grappling is primarily to counter incoming takedowns, initiating submissions and clinch exchanges off opponent strike attempts. Nurmagomedov’s stats hold, taking half the damage of Andrade on average. 

Prediction: Nurmagomedov Money Line -335

Said is an up and coming finisher who is likely to see a title shot soon enough. Andrade is a competitor but past his prime. He’ll be stuck playing gatekeeper and defeating fighters trying to enter the top fifteen. Nurmagomedov pays out at $29.85 in winnings per $100 wager. 

Jared Vanderaa vs Chase Sherman 

Both fighters are in the midst of a string of losses, and both are at risk of being cut. Vanderaa is now 2-4 in the UFC while Sherman is 3-9. Sherman has lost by finish in four fights, compared to Vanderaa’s three. 

Tale of the Tape for Vanderaa vs Sherman

Fighter Jared Vanderaa  Chase ‘The Vanilla Gorilla’ Sherman
Age 30 32
Height 6’4’’ 6’4’’
Reach/Stance 80’’ Orthodox  78’’ Orthodox 
Record 12-8 15-10
Submissions, TKO in UFC 0, 1 0, 2
Fighter Training Camp Team Quest, Dan Henderson’s AFC  Sanford MMA

The fighters are evenly matched in UFC finishes and overall stats. Technically, Vanderaa has the better UFC record and finishing percentage overall. Sherman has switched schools three times in his UFC run and has been at Sanford less than one year. 

Vanderaa vs Sherman Betting Odds Table 

Bet Available at Bovada Odds  
Vanderaa Money Line -210
Sherman Money Line +170
Over 2 ½ Rounds +125
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -165

Vanderaa has been the favorite against Hunsucker and Oleinik. He lost to Oleinik, who’s the oldest man in the division. Both fighters are consummate underdogs.Sherman lost his last showing as favorite to Parker Porter, but has won three other times as the favorite. 

Average Fight Length for Sherman vs Vanderaa

Both fighters have been finished in two of their last three fights, all four losses on the ground. They’re both striking focused fighters, so I’d imagine we won’t see any takedowns early on. This gives me hope for the Over. 

Vanderaa vs Sherman Top Prop Bets

Bet  Odds 
Vanderaa by TKO or Decision -175
Sherman by TKO or Decision +175
Fight Completes 1 Full Round  -250
Vanderaa by TKO round 2 +1000

People forget that Vanderaa beat Tafa. He has good kickboxing and a serious reach that does damage from the outside. Neither fighter should have a submission win, and it would be a real surprise if that were the finish, so you could bet the double chance props over the money lines of either fighter. Vanderaa in Round 2 is my call for a longshot prop. 

Vanderaa vs Sherman UFC Stats For Betting Picks 

Fighter   Vanderaa Sherman
Strikes Landed, Absorbed per Minute  4.52, 4.78 6.08, 6.32
Takedown Accuracy, Defensive Percentage  100%, 20% 0, 66%
Significant Strikes in Last 3 98 127

Vanderaa takes less damage on average by a factor of two strikes per minute. He’s easy to take down, but hasn’t had the opportunity for as many close fights as Sherman. Sherman went to decision with Arlovski and Porter in close battles. 

Prediction: Under 2 ½ Rounds -165

These two tend to get knocked out and throw with impunity. Both fighters are looking for the TKO and will be doing their best to stay in the UFC. I think this is a fight where neither man will leave anything on the table, and Sherman isn’t out of the fight. The under pays $60.61 in winnings per $100 wagered.

Cynthia Calvillo vs Nina Nunes 

Calvillo is on a two fight TKO loss streak, putting her at 6-4-1 in the UFC. She’s up against Nunes, who’s now 4-4 in the UFC after losses to Dern and Suarez. Both fighters have been thrown to the wolves and will have a chance at redemption. 

Tale of the Tape for Calvillo vs Nunes

Fighter Cynthia Calvillo  Nina Nunes 
Age 35 36
Height 5’4’’ 5’5’’
Reach/Stance 64’’ Orthodox  64’’ Orthodox 
Record 9-4-1 10-7
Submissions, TKO in UFC 3, 0 1, 0
Fighter Training Camp American Kickboxing Academy  American Top Team 

Nunes has a slightly larger frame and more total losses. She’s struggled in recent finishes, and she’s in between camps. This is her first fight after having a baby with former Champion Amanda Nunes. She’s been in the hospital twice for multiple infections. Calvillo has the better overall finishing percentage. 

Calvillo vs Nunes Betting Odds Table 

Bet Available at Bovada Odds  
Calvillo Money Line -154
Nunes Money Line +126
Over 2 ½ Rounds -230
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +175

Nunes is the underdog and rightfully so. Calvillo has only lost to high quality strikers, Something Nina has been unable to perform as well against good grapplers. Both fighters have seen recent losses via finish, though only Calvillo has been knocked out. 

Calvillo vs Nunes Top Prop Bets

Bet Odds
Calvillo by Submission or Decision  -135
Fight to Complete 1 Full ROund  -650

We think that Calvillo is the far superior fighter, and Nunes will struggle to stay competitive given her current circumstances. A Calvillo knockout win would be rare, so this is a nice boost on her money line. 

Calvillo vs Nunes UFC Stats For Betting Picks 

Fighter   Calvillo  Nunes 
Strikes Landed, Absorbed per Minute  4.27, 4.1  4.64, 3.5 
Takedown Accuracy, Defensive Percentage  43%, 73% 40%, 765
Takedowns in Last 3 2 0
Control Time in Last 3  0:39 0

Nunes has struggled in recent performances, scoring no real grappling points even in her win over Claudia Gadelha. Calvillo isn’t doing much better, but she’s faced and defeated better fighters overall, such as Jessica Eye. 

Prediction: Calvillo by Submission or Decision -135

UFC on ESPN 39 odds pit Calvillo as a narrow favorite. While Nina has real power, I think that her current life changing events are affecting the performances of both her and her wife. We always take into account the personal stressors of an athlete, and it rarely produces good outcomes to be without a major training academy. 

Michael Johnson vs Jamie Mullarkey

Johnson is now 1-4 over his last five, despite being in the UFC since 2010. Mullarkey is fresh off a TKO loss to Turner in March, and hopes to bounce back into the win column. He’s 2-3 in the UFC, finishing both fighters by TKO. 

Tale of the Tape for Johnson vs Mullarkey

Fighter Michael Johnson Jamie Mullarkey 
Age 36 27
Height 5’10’’ 6’0’’
Reach/Stance 73’’ Southpaw 74’’ Orthodox 
Record 21-17 14-5
Submissions, TKO in UFC 0, 4 0, 2
Fighter Training Camp Sanford MMA  Central Coast MMA 

Johnson has knocked out some of the toughest fighters in the UFC and lost to some of the strangest. He went to decision with Guillard despite both of them having a knockout centered style. Since 2016, Johnson has been finished five times across ten fights. 

Mullarkey is the younger, larger framed fighter. 

Johnson vs Mullarkey Betting Odds Table 

Bet Available at Bovada Odds  
Johnson Money Line +195
Mullarkey Money Line -250
Over 2 ½ Rounds +135
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -175

Both fighters have a 2:3 decision to finish ratio in their last ten fights. Johnson has been the favorite in all recent fights since his +100 win over Fili in 2018. His last loss as the underdog was to Khabib in 2016 at a mere +285

Johnson vs Mullarkey Top Prop Bets

Bets Odds
Fight Goes to Decision, No  -235
Winning Round, 1  +175
Mullarkey by TKO or Submission  -105

Believe it or not, Mullarkey is a BJJ blackbelt. He essentially never uses his top tier submission skill, but Johsnon likes to shoot a blind double leg that could put him in some trouble. Expect a finish, both fighters have shown aggressive styles in recent showings. 

Johnson vs Mullarkey UFC Stats For Betting Picks 

Fighter   Michael Johnson Jamie Mullarkey 
Strikes Landed, Absorbed per Minute  4.19, 3.78 3.42, 5.05
Takedown Accuracy, Defensive Percentage  47%, 78% 32%, 57%
Takedowns in Last 3 1 2
Significant Strikes Absorbed  in Last 3  72 86

Jamie has more one punch knockout power overall, but he puts himself at serious risk in the majority of his fights. If Johnson finds the angle, Mullarkey could see a repeat of his first two losses with more dire consequences. Johnson has far more power than Riddell or Ziam. 

Prediction: Fight Goes to Decision, No -235

Neither fighter wants to get knocked out, but Johnson is getting old. He still has his power but has lost his chin. The UFC on ESPN 39 odds agree with me, showing a 70.1% chance of success for the No Decision prop bet. 


UFC on ESPN 39 Upset Pick: Aiemann Zahabi vs Ricky Turcios 

The 2-2 Zahabi is coming off his first TKO win back in February 2021. His only losses are for the UFC, and he’s been active in the UFC since 2017. Zahabi took 16 months after his losses to hone his skills and settle his family. 

Turncios is 1-1 in the UFC, and put on a very high striking pace in both bouts. He was robbed in his loss to Boston Salmon in 2017. 

Tale of the Tape for Zahabi vs Turcios

Fighter Aiemann Zahabi  Ricky Turcios 
Age 34 29
Height 5’8’’ 5’9’’
Reach/Stance 68’’ Orthodox  71’’ Orthodox 
Record 8-2 12-2
Submissions, TKO in UFC 0, 1 0, 0
Fighter Training Camp Tristar  Team Alpha Male 

Turcios is the younger, larger framed fighter. He’s failed to finish any UFC opponents to date despite landing 210 significant strikes in two fights. Zahabi’s older brother is his head coach at Tristar, and that relationship can be a valuable one. 

Zahabi vs Turcios Betting Odds Table 

Bet Available at Bovada Odds  
Zahabi Money Line +160
Turcios Money Line -197
Over 2 ½ Rounds -170
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +130

Turcios was the underdog in his loss to Salmon, and Zahabi was the underdog in his win over Drako Rodriguez at +188. Neither fighter has a significant betting history outside the UFC. Zahabi’s only TKO loss was in round three, so unless Turcios chin hasn’t been tested, we should make it outside the first. 

Zahabi vs Turcios Top Prop Bets 

Bet Odds
Fight Completes 1 Round  -550
Turcios by in Round 3 or Decision  +100
Zahabi inside the Distance  +350

I think Turcios takes a bit too much damage to survive a full fight with Zahabi. If he can get the win, it will be after Zahabi is worn down. Either way, the first round looks safe. Turcios has never been finished. UFC on ESPN 39 betting odds see another Turcios decision with a high strike exchange rate. 

Zahabi vs Turcios UFC Stats For Betting Picks 

Fighter   Aiemann Zahabi  Ricky Turcios 
Strikes Landed, Absorbed per Minute  2.82, 3.91  7, 4.23 
Takedown Accuracy, Defensive Percentage  16%, 72% 22%, 45%
Takedowns in Last 3 1 2

Zahabi has a better takedown defense, while Turcios is more active overall. He absorbs and lands more strikes. This is a boon in a decision, as it appears the judges score  his strikes as significant despite doing minimal damage. 

Prediction: Zahabi Money Line +160

Aiemann is a good fighter with high level jiu jitsu and he looked so much better in his last fight. I can see him making returns to the cage only when he’s sure he can win, and that selective nature gives me trust in the upset. Take $1.60 per $1 wager on the underdog in this upset pick. 

Antonia Shevchenko vs Cortney Casey 

Shevchenko is now 4-4 with back to back losses by finish in the second round. She’s facing Cortney Casey, a 6-8 UFC veteran that’s been active in the UFC since 2015. Casey has a high finishing rate, but she’s been fed to the who’s who of the women’s flyweight division. 

Tale of the Tape for Shevchenko vs Casey 

Fighter Antonia La Pantera Shevchenko  Cortney ‘Cast Iron’ Casey 
Age 37 35
Height 5’8’’ 5’7’’
Reach/Stance 67’’ Southpaw 67’’ Orthodox 
Record 9-4 10-9
Submissions, TKO in UFC/DWCS 1, 2 2, 1

Casey has more overall finishes but far more fights for the promotion. She’s never been knocked out, but she was submitted by Gillian Robertson, a high level wrestler. 

Shevchenko vs Casey Betting Odds Table 

Bet Available at Bovada Odds  
Shevchenko Money Line -185
Casey Money Line +146
Over 2 ½ Rounds -230
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +175

Shevchenko is the favorite despite her losing streak. She’s also fought much lower quality competition and lost in her only chances at breaking the top fifteen. Casey’s last upset was Angela Hill at +115. 

Shevchenko vs Casey Top Prop Bets 

Bet  Odds 
Casey by Submission  +700

Both fighters have been in a number of surprise decisions and upset wins. I see Casey as a far better grappler than Shevchenko, to the point that if Antonia initiates a clinch, it could be the beginning of the end. 

Shevchenko vs Casey UFC Stats For Betting Picks 

Fighter   Shevchenko Casey 
Strikes Landed, Absorbed per Minute  3.89, 3.05 4.46, 4.03
Takedown Accuracy, Defensive Percentage  50%, 52% 27%, 38%
Takedowns in Last 3 1 0
Finishes in Last 3  1 0

Casey’s low takedown rate means she’ll be forced to box with Shevchenko, a recipe for disaster. Unless Casey initiates the takedown, she’ll lose. She hasn’t scored a takedown in five fights. 

Prediction: Shevchenko Money Line -185

Something tells me Casey has a chance at this thing. Still the stats say it’s Shevchneko. I’m going to fight my gut reaction, and tell you to go with the favorite. Be careful with this one and exclude it from any parlay picks. 

Cody Brundage vs Tresean Gore 

Brundage scored a submission in his last bout, earning his first UFC win. He’s getting another chance at padding his UFC record against Gore, who recently took a beating from Bryan Battle in February. 

Tale of the Tape for Brundage vs Gore

Fighter Cody Brundage  Tresean ‘Mr.Vicious’ Gore 
Age 28 28
Height 6’0’’  6’0’’
Reach/Stance 72’’ Orthodox  75’’ Switch 
Record 8-2 4-1
Submissions, TKO in UFC 1, 0 0, 0

Both fighters only have UFC losses. Gore was a TUF contender that left the show for medical reasons. He also had a 3-1 amatuer record. Brundage has five finishes outside of the UFC across just six fights. 

Brundage vs Gore Betting Odds Table 

Bet Available at Bovada Odds  
Brundage Money Line +125
Gore Money Line -150
Over 2 ½ Rounds -120
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -110

TUF fighters are regularly over estimated and fall short inside the UFC. Gore is the favorite despite his loss. Both fighters have UFC level decisions but are finishers outside the promotion, making an over/under prediction difficult. Neither fighter has been finished before, but I’m not convinced Gore will avoid submission. 

Brundage vs Gore Top Prop Bets 

Bets  Odds 
Brundage Inside the Distance  +215
Gore Inside the Distance  +200

Either fighter has finishing power, but neither have ever been finished. Brundage is the larger fighter, so Gore will have issues early on with a late fight advantage.

Brundage vs Gore UFC Stats For Betting Picks 

Fighter   Brundage  Gore
Strikes Landed, Absorbed per Minute  2.42, 2.75 3.8, 747
Takedown Accuracy, Defensive Percentage  25%, 68% 66%, 87%

Keep in mind these stats are for just one fight for Gore and three for Brundage.

Prediction: Brundage Money Line +125

Brundage is the larger fighter with better overall striking defense. Gore’s TUF cast mates haven’t done well, and I think Gore will follow the same pathe. 

David Onama vs Garrett Armfield 

Onama is facing a late addition after winning his last fight in February via KO. Armfield is making his UFC debut, fighting out of Kill Cliff FC in Florida. 

Tale of the Tape for Onama vs Armfield 

Fighter David Onama  Garrett Armfield 
Age 28 25
Height 5’11’’ 5’7’’
Reach/Stance 74’’ 71’’ Orthodox 
Record 9-1 8-2
Career Submissions, TKO  3, 6 2, 5
Fighter Training Camp Glory MMA and Fitness Kill Cliff FC 

Armfield often fights at bantamweight but is moving to featherweight for this bout. Both fighters have a very high finishing rate, but Garrett’s two losses are concerning. He’s lost twice to 4-1 fighters at LFA and CFFC. 

Onama vs Armfield Betting Odds Table 

Bet Available at Bovada Odds  
Onama Money Line -800
Armfield Money Line +500
Over 1 ½ Rounds -135
Under 1 ½ Rounds  +105

The under is an interesting bet. Onama has finished all wins but one before the midway point of round 2. Both fighters have one decision loss, but the fighter that beat Onama, Mason Jones, is one of the highest prestige featherweight wrestlers in the division. 

Prediction: Onama Money Line -800

Take the easy money as we see Onama in full effect against a smaller, last minute replacement that’s already lost to lower quality fighters. UFC on ESPN 39 odds offer $12.50 per $100 wagered on this finishing artist’s win. 

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Karl Roberson 

Nzechukwu has lost his last two fights after looking unstoppable in his early UFC career. He’s facing Roberson, who was upset by Rountree in March and is now on a three fight skid against top fifteen ranked fighters. 

Tale of the Tape for Nzechuku vs Roberson

Fighter Kennedy ‘African Savage’ Nzechuku Karl ‘Baby K’ Roberson
Age 30 31
Height 6’5’’ 6’1’’
Reach/Stance 83’’ Southpaw 74’’ Southpaw 
Record 9-3 9-5
Submissions, TKO in UFC 0, 3 2,1 

Nzechuku has the larger frame and a wild nine inch reach advantage. Both fighters have only lost fights inside the UFC, though Nzechuku has the better UFC record overall. 

Nzechuku vs Roberson Betting Odds Table 

Bet Available at Bovada Odds  
Nzechuku Money Line -130
Roberson Money Line +110
Over 2 ½ Rounds -105
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -125
Fight Goes to Decision, No  -164

Roberson has been the underdog in three losses as well as upsets of Kopylov and Spann at +140. Kennedy lost as the favorite in all UFC losses. The Under looks good, considering only Kenndy has a decision inside the last four fights. 

Nzechuku vs Roberson UFC Stats For Betting Picks 

Fighter   Kennedy Nzechuku Karl Roberson
Strikes Landed, Absorbed per Minute  5.13, 4.9 2.89, 2.56
Takedown Accuracy, Defensive Percentage  0, 80% 57%, 47%
Takedowns in Last 3 0 0
Significant Strikes Landed in Last 3  142 27

On paper, Karl struggles in nearly every aspect. This makes it look like a sure fire shut out. My only concern is Roberson getting the takedown, as with Kopylov and Stewart. He only needed one. 

Prediction: Fight Goes to Decision, No -164

The UFC on ESPN 34 odds and stats align on this safe bet. I don’t see a way someone doesn’t get finished in this matchup. 


Ronnie Lawrence vs Saidyokub Kakhramonov 

Lawrence is 3-0 in the UFC and is ready for his toughest test to date. Kakhramonov is a high quality grappler with a blistering pace for submission attacks. 

Tale of the Tape for Lawrence vs Kakhramonov

Fighter Ronnie ‘The Heat’ Lawrence Saidyokub Kakhramonov 
Age 30 27
Height 5’8’’ 5’8’’
Reach/Stance 68’’ Switch 69’’ Orthodox 
Record 8-1 9-2
Submissions, TKO in UFC 0, 1 1, 0

Neither fighter has any major advantages on paper, though Lawrence is more proven on the UFC level. 

Lawrence vs Kakhramonov Betting Odds Table 

Bet Available at Bovada Odds  
Lawrence Money Line -130
Kakhramonov Money Line +110
Over 2 ½ Rounds -190
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +145

Lawrence is a slight favorite. I fear his grappling focused style will feed right into the guillotine and over sprawl centered submissions of Saidyokub. 

Lawrence vs Kakhramonov UFC Stats For Betting Picks 

Fighter   Lawrence Kakhramonov
Strikes Landed, Absorbed per Minute  3.54, 1.62 2.46, .82
Takedown Accuracy, Defensive Percentage  28%, 100% 28%, 87%
Takedowns in Last Fight  6 2
Control Time in Last Fight   8:09 1:07

Lawrence has more of that classic wrestling style. Once he puts a fighter down, he keeps them there and chain wrestles when they stand up. Kakhramonov was fantastic at stopping damage, and in total strikes he landed 123. 

Prediction: Under 2 ½ Rounds +145

These two will clash, unable to properly control one another, I see swinging for the fences. I think Kakhramonov has a real chance of submission and Lawrence a chance of knockout. He has dynamite hands and is still learning how to trust them. 

Sub Categories:
Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.