New Mexico… When I close my eyes and think about the Land of Enchantment, I see… Black mountainsides, gray valleys. The wind. The cold. The grit. The hard people.
And that brings me to mixed martial arts. Natives of New Mexico are all well aware of the true fighting spirit that flows through their veins.
It’s not just the world-famous Jackson/Wink gym in Albuquerque that shapes the MMA scene in the state. There is plenty of talent in New Mexico and infinite times as much heart.
Las Vegas might remain the fight capital of the world but the weather is just too good and there are one too many lights for me to be picking a Las Vegas fighter vs a guy from New Mexico.
The UFC visits the city of Rio Rancho this week for Fight Night 167.
While the rest of the card lacks major star power, hardcore fans and bettors will find plenty of intrigue as well as value.
BetOnline.AG has stepped forward as the leader in UFC betting websites. They are pumping out opening betting odds sometimes months in advance.
They also have live betting now for MMA which can be a lot of fun and even more profitable.
Before we get to our predictions for UFC Fight Night 167, let’s recap how we did on last week’s card.
UFC 247 Betting Recap
- We started off the night with a fairly even fight according to the books between Jonathan Martinez and Andre Ewell
- Ewell came out orthodox and it was really throwing off his defense
- After Andre adjusted, he began to land but Martinez essentially beat him up
- We picked Ewell at (-127) and the judges gifted him and us the victory
- Hey, sometimes you’re lucky!
- Next, we took Derrick Lewis and Ilir Latifi to go over 1.5 rounds with betting odds of (-140)
- This one hit as it went to a decision with Derrick getting his hand raised
- I, unfortunately, missed the fight due to some aggressive jet lag but I felt good about this pic as most of Derrick’s fights, even the knockout wins, make it to the later rounds
- I try not to be proud of myself at all with a winning pick but hitting the under in a women’s strawweight fight is tough
- The (+160) payout is nice too. I just thought Valentina would go for the kill and boy did she
- The crucifix finish is a gnarly one because you don’t want to tap to strikes but you’re about 99% certain you aren’t escaping and it’s just a steady flow of leather and bone until the ref stops it
- The main event was a close one. I woke up for the last two fights, btw
- I haven’t rewatched it but I believe the 2nd round is the one in question
- I had Jones winning 3-2 but that’s with the champion bias included
- The Reyes bet would have been great but I have seen more than once the judges hedge towards Bones
- We took the under 2.5 for plus money which was a crap bet
- One thing I want to point out about Jones’ style is, yes, he walks his opponents down
- But when there is an engagement, he backs straight up almost all the way across the cage
- Until someone follows him all the way back to the fence, I guess he is displaying Octagon control. He’s just so long and defensive, though, and those fingers…
- I digress, 3-1 with a gift included. I’ll take it
Raulian Paiva (-250) vs Mark De La Rosa (+210)
- Great control on the ground
- Striking is basic. Tough, though
- Not the best athlete
- What holds him back the most?
- His inability to consistently get the fight to the ground
- Bigger man of the two
- Good striking
- Good takedown defense
Ray Borg (-145) vs Rogerio Bontorin (+125)
- New Mexico fighter
- Tough tough
- Very good grappling particularly control
- More physical with his strikes than his opponent
- Very good grappler
- Questionable chin
- Would hold value if at (+175) or more
- I think the New Mexico fighters on the card this weekend are definitely in winnable fights
Montana De La Rosa (-165) vs Mara Romera Borella (+140)
- Yup, this is Mark’s wife
- She also has a similar style of pressure, ground control and submissions
- She also has the same problem
- Averages 1 takedown per 15 minutes with a 22% accuracy rate
- If she gets it, though…
- 3 submissions/15 minutes!
- Has fought very tough competition
- Good takedown percentage
- Striking is not great
- Solid takedown defense at 66%
- Do the math and I think this one should be a striking battle
- Borella will have to get past Montana’s jab
- Both husband and wife will not lose, though!
- Montana is a very smart fighter and I think that carries her to a decision win
Michael Pereira (-160) vs Diego Sanchez (+140)
- It will be Pereira early on or Diego with a rally late
- Could this be the final fight of Sanchez’s career?
- Home state crowd will have him so energized!
- In the past five years, Sanchez has won against grapplers with bad wrestling and minimal punching power
- And he’s lost when fighting a striker or even anyone with power
- Too many concussions already for Sanchez. Pereira does slow down late and the fight is at altitude but I think he gets him out of there early
- 8.4 knockdowns/15 minutes for the Brazilian, Pereira…
- Take the under 1.5 rounds as well at plus money (+115)
Corey Anderson (-212) vs Jan Blachowicz (+182)
This is a rematch from several years ago and both fighters have improved their games at a nice pace ever since. In fact, the winner of this matchup is considered to be in line for a title shot against Jon Bones Jones.
This is a big fight. Neither fighter stands out in the media or story side of the fight game but they are both top five in the world at light heavyweight.
Jan has been on a nice roll lately. We took him in his last win over Jacare but admittedly got burned by him when he broke the golden jaw of Luke Rockhold.
I just think Corey Anderson is on a mission. His style is a very active dominating way of martial arts. We can talk about Jan’s striking and power being superior to Corey’s but we all know what really matters.
Is Anderson, who fights very intelligently, going to have success with takedowns and ground control? I think so. The threat of such will even up or possibly better the striking for the favorite here.
I think we are getting great value just around 2 to 1 on Corey.
I am tempted to take the over because 4.5 rounds is a long time but two under bets in the same week just isn’t a great strategy.
UFC Fight Night 167 is a very very good card. I didn’t really talk about that much in the introduction but there are some incredible matchups. Some are so good, of course, that I passed on a betting opportunity.
I’m pretty confident about the main event. Jan does really crack with his hands but Corey is one of the most leach-like fighters the UFC has on their roster. He’s the kinda guy who is great for betting.
As for team De La Rosa, I can’t see them both not getting their hands raised. Montana has good length and a solid jab. She is relentless too. That should be the difference.
And for Diego, we love you brother. The man has put it on the line inside the Octagon an infinite amount of times. He will never be forgotten and we all know, there will never be anyone like him.
I think he’s getting cracked against the Brazilian on Saturday, though.
Enjoy the fights and get your bets in right now!