UFC Fight Night 204 Odds and Predictions

We’ve arranged the UFC Fight Night 204 odds and predictions starting with the main event and working our way down to the early prelims. Below each prediction, the place bet button will take you to our top rated UFC betting site. This card is packed with favorable UFC Fight Night odds for parlay tickets or top betting picks alike. No matter how you like to build your ticket, there’s a fight for you on this card. 

UFC Fight Night 204 Odds and Predictions: Alexander Volkov vs Tom Aspinall 

This heavyweight main event pits two of the UFC’s most dangerous finishers against one another.Aspinall’s odds on UFC fight night are down 37% since the opening, removing him from  underdog status at +124. Volkov’s line movement can be attributed to Aspinall’s status as a fan favorite, and who can blame them. His four UFC finishes have totalled only 10 minutes and 59 seconds.  

Tale of the Tape for Aspinall vs Volkov 

Fighter Alexander ‘Drago’ Volkov  Tom Aspinall 
Age 33 28
Height 6’7’’ 6’5’’
Reach/Stance 80’’, Orthodox  78’’, Orthodox 
Record 34-9 11-2
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/4 1/3
Fighter Training Camp Strela Team, Various  Team Kaobon 

Volkanov is the larger, older fighter. He’s only finished 40% of his UFC showings, compared to Aspinall’s 100% finishing rate. Tom has only lost fights outside of the UFC, eight fights ago he lost to Lukasz Parobiec via illegal elbow DQ and ten fights ago he lost to Stuart Austin via heel hook, his only legitimate loss. 
Both fighters train at camps that have produced UFC level talent. Team Kaobon brings us Derren Till, Terry Ettim,  and Mike Grundy while Strela has only put out ACA and Bellator level talent. It’s notable that many fighters cross train with Strela Team, including fighters from KOPS and Stary Oskol. I believe Team Kaobon should have a slight advantage, and the fight night odds should reflect that. 

Aspinall has changed so much physically since his UFC debut. Clearly, his conditioning is now on the UFC level.

UFC Fight Night Betting Odds

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Tom Aspinall Money Line -126
Alexander Volkov Money Line +106
Over 2 ½ Rounds -170
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +140
Goes the Distance ‘No’  -175
Volkov by Points  +300
Volkov by TKO  +300
Aspinal by Points +450
Aspinall by TKO  +185
Aspinal by Submission +700
Volkov in Round 1 TKO  +1100
Aspinall in Round 2 +650
Volkov inside the Distance +275
Aspinall inside the Distance  +125

Volkov has six losses outside of the UFC against Bellator and M-1’s best. His recent losses include Cyril Gane at +140 and Curtis Blaydes at +320. Recent wins include Tybura at -260 and Overeem at -162. He gave up an upset win to Derrick Lewis in 2018, fumbling a -155 favorite status. 
Aspinall has been the favorite in every UFC appearance, ranging from -225 to -600. These UFC betting odds represent his toughest fight to date, opening at +124 and closing in at -115. 

UFC Prop Betting Predictions

The safest bet of the night is the Aspinall moneyline at -126. I’m surprised to see the over at -170, and I thought we’d be closer to a -115 over/under 1 ½ Rounds. Aspinall inside the distance is a good bet, but Volkov has the kind of power that Aspinall has never in his career been tested against. We have no idea how Aspinall’s chin will hold up against top level talent. 

UFC Fight Night 204 Main Event Predictions

Volkov lost by TKO to Derrick Lewis, but took Gane and Blaydes the distance. Aspinall is a dangerous athlete, but I’m unsure of his kickboxing ability. His recent win over Serghei Spivac shows that he can strike first and finish quickly, but if Volkov doesn’t go away so easily, we don’t know what Aspinall will look like in late round 2 and round 3, we’ve just never seen it. 

Our UFC Fight Night betting pick is Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance at -175. This prop bet has some of the strongest odds of any bet on Aspinall vs Volkov. Volkov will test Aspinall’s chin, and Aspinall will keep his usual, breakneck forward moving pace. I’m slightly leaning toward Aspinall, but Volkov is a different level of competition than all of his previous bouts. 


UFC Vegas 51 Betting Prediction: Arnold Allen vs Dan Hooker 

Dan Hooker has been having a rough time, losing three of his last four bouts. He faces the undefeated Arnold Allen, a fighter that has taken out eight UFC athletes, some in narrow decision victories. Allen is still untested, fighting no one inside of the top ten, but making his way to the #7 spot. Hooker is currently out of the top fifteen at featherweight and is #8 for the lightweight division.  

Tale of the Tape for Allen vs Hooker 

Fighter Arnold ‘Almighty’ Allen Dan ‘The Hangman’ Hooker 
Age 28 32
Height 5’8’’ 6’0’’
Reach/Stance 70’’ Southpaw 75’’, Switch
Record 17-1 21-11
Submissions/TKO in UFC 2/0 2/6
Fighter Training Camp BKK Fighters, Renegade BJJ City Kickboxing 

Allen is the smaller, younger fighter but Hooker has struggled in his cut to 145 pounds in the past, and moved up to the lightweight division after his loss to Yair Rodriguez. His recent loss to Islam Makhachev put him back to the featherweight division, which i’m surprised doesn’t put him in underdog status for his odds on UFC Fight Night. 
Hooker has been active in the UFC since 2014 and seven of his eleven losses have come inside the promotion. Allen’s one loss was to TUF competitor Marcin Wrzosek back in his Cage Warrior days. 
Hooker will need to use his five inch reach advantage to keep Allen on the outside, while Allen comes with varying strategies on fight night. 
Both fighters have high profile gyms, but it’s clear that City Kickboxing in Auckland deserves your consideration in the UFC betting odds. BKK has produced fighters at the Bellator and UFL level, but Allen is by far the best athlete at the gym. 

UFC Fight Night Betting Odds

Bet Available at Betonline.ag UFC Fight Night Odds  
Dan Hooker Money Line +100
Arnold Allen Money Line -120 
Over 2 ½ Rounds -185
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +155
Goes the Distance ‘Yes’  -160
Allen by Points +185
Hooker by Points +210
Hooker by TKO  +375
Arnold Allen in Round 3 +1600
Hooker in Round 1 +600

Arnold Allen is the favorite, as he has been in six of his eight UFC appearances, with odds ranging from -110 to -340. His two upsets include his debut against Alan Omer at +150 and his most recent win over Sadiq Yusuff at +135. 
Hooker’s three most recent losses include Chandler at -150, Dustin Poirier at +200 and Makhachev at +425. His last two wins were Haqparast at -138 and Felder at -150. The last time Hooker upset a favorite was his win over Marc Diakiese in 2017 as a +165 underdog. The fight night odds show that Arnold is the much safer bet, and that fans of Hooker should look to the props for some support. 

UFC Prop Betting Predictions

The over matches two of Arnold’s finishes, both Guillotines in the third round. Hooker has had only two third round finishes across his eighteen UFC performances. Still, Allen has a solid chin and the over bet covers any submission finishes due to exhaustion (Dan Hooker’s first time at featherweight in eight fights) and covers the decision. 
Allen by Points is my top prop bet, and Hooker’s only hope is a TKO, so his +375 finishing prop bet may be a good choice. 

UFC Fight Night 204 Prediction and UFC Vegas 51 Betting Pick 

Hooker has fought higher caliber opponents than Allen, but he hasn’t beaten them. His flash knockouts of Gilbert Burns and Jim Miller marked his peak inside the UFC. However, Allen is nowhere near the caliber of Makhachev, Chandler and Poirier. 
Allen’s last fight with Yusuff was a telling one. Yussuff won the third round in dramatic fashion, and clearly took the second round as well. Somehow, Allen walked away with a unanimous decision in a fight where he was out-struck 2:1. 
Hooker is every bit as good a striker as Yussuff, and has a four inch reach advantage on Yusuff. If Arnold Allen shows up with the same head movement he had in his bout with Yusuff, he’ll be going to sleep. On paper, Allen wins hands down. 
Allens hand speed is fantastic but I worry about his distance management against the bigger fighter. He throws flat footed flurries that leave him open to Hooker’s long jab work. After watching fight tape, my UFC betting pick is Dan Hooker at +100, an underdog with better striking and the ever improving City Kickboxing takedown defense. Look for the right knee up the middle during an Allen flurry. 

UFC Fight Night 204 Odds and Predictions: Paddy Pimblett vs Rodrigo ‘Kazula’ Vargas

Paddy is coming off his UFC debut win and now faces a lower level UFC fighter in Rodrigo Vargas. Vargas took his first UFC win over Rong Zhu after being disqualified in his bout with Brok Weaver. 
Paddy has a serious hype train around him due mostly to his personality and risky submission victories, and I believe this may be affecting the UFC Fight Night odds significantly.  

Tale of the Tape for Pimblett vs Vargas 

Fighter Paddy ‘The Baddy’ Pimblett Rodrigo ‘Kazula’ Vargas 
Age 27 36
Height 5’10’’ 5’8’’
Reach/Stance 73’’, Orthodox  71’’, Southpaw 
Record 17-3 12-4
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/1 0/0
Fighter Training Camp Next Generation MMA  Cobrinha BJJ, UFC Performance Institute, various 

Paddy’s size advantage will come into play during his submission attempts. He likes to hang on smaller fighters in the clinch and throw up flying submissions. The fighters are in opposite stances, contributing to the likelihood of a finish as well as pushing the action and forcing the clinch more often. 
Next Generation is home to Molly McCann and several other top tier fighters. Kazula has been taking full advantage of his time in Vegas, training at the UFC Performance institute, but he has been cross training for BJJ defense given Paddy’s history of quick submission finishes. 
A small UFC Fight Night betting advantage should go to Paddy for his size, but it’s evened out by Kazula’s training environment which I believe to be superior. 

UFC Fight Night Betting Odds

Bet Available at Betonline.ag UFC Fight Night Odds  
Paddy Pimblett Money Line -550
Rodrigo Vargas Money Line +385
Over 1½ Rounds +100
Under 1½ Rounds  -130
Goes the Distance ‘Yes’  +200
Goes the Distance ‘No’   -260

This fight is one that’s set up for a PImblett win in his hometown. The UFC betting odds support a Pimblett finish, and few other props are being offered due to Paddy’s confidence in a first round finish. 
Pimblett’s win over Luigi was a -145, and his two wins prior were finishes as well. His Cage Warriors run ranged from +105 loss to Soren Bak, to -445 wins. Vargas shows a +280 loss in his UFC debut and a +200 win over Zhu Rong. 
Zhu was another hyped fighter, coming into the UFC having finished nine of his last ten fights. Vargas took his best shots and out-landed him 2:1 over three rounds. 

UFC Betting Prediction

I’m less convinced that Pimblett will finish Vargas with ease. If Vargas can’t be finished by Pimblett, we’re likely to see some submission attempts. Vargas is a Luta Livre Black Belt and has notable holes in his grappling game. 

Our UFC Fight Night bet is a safe one; the Pimblett moneyline at -550. We could see a Vargas upset, so keep this one out of your parlays. He’s under-rated and Paddy is simply untested. He’s lost to the toughest fighters he’s faced and still has plenty of room to grow as an athlete. 


UFC Fight Night 204 Odds and Predictions: Gunnar Nelson vs Takshi Sato

Nelson hasn’t fought since his loss to Gilbert Burns in September, 2019. He’s back to face Sato, who’s been inactive since November, 2020. Both fighters are coming off losses and long hiatus. It can make betting tricky, given that we haven’t seen a performance from either fighter in so long, and it makes training footage of the fighters’ respective camps more important than in other betting picks. 

Tale of the Tape for Nelson vs Sato

Fighter Gunner ‘Gunni’ Nelson Takashi ‘Ten’ Sato 
Age 33 31
Height 5’11’’ 5’10’’
Reach/Stance 72’’, Switch  73’’, Southpaw 
Record 17-5-1 16-4
Submissions/TKO in UFC 7/0 0/2
Fighter Training Camp Mjölnir MMA, London Grapple, Varied  Sanford MMA, Tribe Tokyo MMA

Gunnar is the more experienced UFC fighter and he’s tied for seventh place for the most UFC submission wins of all time. Sato has lost both fights via submission, and it points to the UFC matchmakers hoping for a successful comeback for the popular Gunnar Nelson. 
Gunnar gives up an inch of reach to the striker. Sato’s knockout power is unquestionable, and his wins over Ben Suanders and Jason Witt showed clean kickboxing and a headhunting style. 
Sanford has produced far more high level MMA fighters. Mjolnir is a growing home to dozens of quality athletes, but Gunnar is the star. Betting odds for UFC FIght Night should shift a bit in Sato’s favor for that reason. 

UFC Fight Night Betting Odds

Bet Available at Betonline.ag UFC Fight Night Odds  
Gunnar Nelson Money Line -500
Takashi Sato Money Line +375
Over 1½ Rounds -145
Under 1½ Rounds  +115
Goes the Distance ‘Yes’  +170
Nelson by Points +275
Sato by Points +750
Nelson by Submission  -135
Sato by TKO  +625
Gunnar in Round 1 by Submission  +200

Gunnar is a strong favorite, paying $20 per $100  wager on his money line. He lost his last two bouts as the underdog at +100 and +126. His last few wins included Oliveira at -145, Jouban at -300 and Tumenov at +135. 
Sato has had four UFC appearances. He was the underdog in both losses at +182 and +320 and the winner in his bouts as favorite at -215 each. 
Gunnar’s been somewhat consistent in winning as the favorite. Though he lost to Santiago Ponzinibbio at -174 in 2017 and to Damian Maia in 2015 at -125. The last time he was this strong of a favorite was against Zak Cummings at -750. He won via choke late in the second round. 

UFC Prop Betting Predictions

We’re assuming that Sato’s time at Sanford has improved his takedown defense. Gunnar said that the time off was for the safety of his brain and to recover from an accidental rib injury during some grappling with Hafþór Júlíus Björnsson, a boxer and strong man. 
Gunnar has been able to train healthy for the last six months and looks solid. It’s clear he’s cutting serious weight to make it to 170 pounds and that he’ll be looking for the takedown early. 
Sato has laser-like striking, especially his right check hook. His fight with Muhammed shows just how far his wrestling needs to come. 

Sato defended none of the real takedown attempts, and was taken airborne several times. Gunnar’s grappling and striking defense has been the focus of his training over the past few months, and Sato’s only real path to victory is maintaining the distance and hoping to land strikes outside the clinch. Gunnar can weigh on Sato to win rounds against the fence, and the submission win is a very real possibility. Our UFC Fight Night betting pick is Gunnar Nelson at -500. It’s the same UFC Fight Night Odds as Paddy Pimblett, but this is a far safer bet and one that I’d comfortably include in a parlay. 


UFC Fight Night Odds and Predictions: Molly McCann cs Luana Carolina 

McCann has been the betting odds favorite since her upset of Lipski in 2019. She’s gone 2-2 since then, and now faces Luana Carolina, fresh off her upset of Loopy Godinez. Carolina’s only loss is to Lipski, a kneebar submission in 2020. This should be an exciting bout with plenty of striking exchanges on the feet and the ground. 

Tale of the Tape for McCann vs Carolina 

Fighter Molly ‘Meatball’ McCann Luana ‘Dread’ Carolina 
Age 31 31
Height 5’4’’ 5’6’’
Reach/Stance 62’’, Orthodox   69’’, Orthodox  
Record 11-4 8-2
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/0 0/0
Fighter Training Camp Next Generation MMA  Prime Sportes 

Carolina has the reach and height advantage, and has lost only one UFC bout. McCann has arguably fought tougher competition, but has dropped three of her seven UFC fights. Neither fighter has any finishes inside the UFC, which is good news for betting the over prop. 
Next Generation MMA is the better program, with Prime Sportes focusing on very little sparring and primarily building Luana as an athlete but not a martial artist. 

UFC Fight Night Betting Odds

Bet Available at Betonline.ag UFC Fight Night Odds  
Molly McCann Money Line -142
Luana Carolina Money Line +122
Over 2½ Rounds -350
Under 2½ Rounds  +275
Goes the Distance ‘Yes’  -300
McCann by Points +115
Carolina by Points +190
McCann by Submission  +1100
Carolina by TKO  +625

McCann’s odds history shows her being upset twice in a row by Santos and Procopio at -200 and -120. She upset Lipski at +225 back in 2019 and was the favorite in all other UFC wins. 

Luana was a +210 underdog in her win over Lupita Godinez. She lost to Lipski at +112, down from opening as the favorite at -110. Luana has upset two fighters in her five-fight UFC run at +210 and +125. 

UFC Prop Betting Predictions

McCann is a slight favorite, but the real favorite here is the distance. Both the Over and the decision prop are good choices. I would steer clear of either fighter’s finishing props, though a McCann submission doesn’t seem unlikely given Carolina’s ground game. 

Carolina fancies herself a knockout striker, but the UFC hasn’t seen this power to date. 
Bet McCann by Points if you’re confident in the Meatball, but stick to the props for safe betting at UFC Fight Night. 

UFC Betting Prediction

McCann’s dismantling of Cachoeira is my prediction for what happens in the stand up game with Luana. McCann still has better head movement and striking accuracy than most of the women in the flyweight division. 
Luana devastated at lower levels of the spower, but her striking in the UFC has shown stiffness. She’s stronger than McCann and I expect the takedown will play a big role for the McCann points win. Still, neither fighter has had a top level finish. Our betting pick is the Over 2 ½ Rounds prop bet at -350, a $0.30 on the dollar payout that aligns with all of their combined UFC showings to date. 

UFC Fight Night Odds and Predictions: Ilia Topuria vs Jai Herbert

Our UFC prediction for the Topuria vs Herbert fight is an obvious one, but we’ll give you details on possible prop bets that could boost your payout. Topuria is an undefeated favorite who’s knocked out his last two UFC opponent’s. He looks like he’s starting beef with Paddy Pimblett and setting up his next fight. Let’s hope it doesn’t affect his performance. 

Tale of the Tape for Topuria vs Herbert 

Fighter Ilia ‘El Matador’ Topuria  Jai ‘Black Country Banger’ Herbert 
Age 25 33
Height 5’7’’ 6’1’’
Reach/Stance 69’’ Orthodox  77’’ Orthodox 
Record 11-0 11-3
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/2 0/1
Fighter Training Camp Climent Club, MMA Masters Team Renegade, RG Boxfit

Jai is a lanky featherweight at 6’1’’, and his eight inch reach advantage is the most significant on the card. Two of his losses have been inside the UFC, finished by Moicano and Trinaldo. Neither fighter has the advantage of a top tier team, though Ilia believes his Clement Club in Spain will rise to the top of the UFC. His brother is his most notable training partner, now 4-1 as a pro in low level events. Ilia has stopped two of his three UFC opponents. 

UFC Fight Night Betting Odds

Bet Available at Betonline.ag UFC Fight Night Odds  
Ilia Topuria Money Line -550
Jai Herbert Money Line +385
Over 1½ Rounds +110
Under 1½ Rounds  -140
Goes the Distance ‘Yes’  +300
Topuria by Points +400
Herbert by Points +850
Topuria by TKO  +300
Herbert by TKO  +500
Topuria by Submission  +105
Topuria Points Spread -3.5 points -400

A quick Ilia finish looks good to the oddsmakers and bettors, but the Topuria submission finish may have you a little confused. Topuria was a submission specialist outside of the UFC, gathering up seven submission wins in his first seven fights. 
Odds history shows Topuria as an easy favorite in the majority of fights, though he was the underdog in his win over Zalal at +135 and the underdog again in his Cage Warrior title fight with Brian Bouland, winning both. 
Herbert was the favorite in his win over Khama Worthy last October. He lost to Moicano as a +585 underdog and to Trinaldo as a -125 favorite. Outside of the UFC, Herbert was a big favorite and ran through his competition with a series of knockout and RNC submission victories. 

UFC Prop Betting Predictions

The under looks good, not only for Ilia Topuria’s ability to finish but Herbert’s counter striking style and power. I think there’s a chance that Herbert can clip Ilia’s chin and turn this thing around with one punch.
Neither of the UFC Fight Night odds for Topuria or Herbert by Points are exciting to me. Herbert’s submission skills against Moicano looked green, but Moicano is a legend who’s only lost to men in the top five of any division. 
I’m betting the under or the Ilia points spread out of any props. The points spread covers a grappling blow, in case Ilia decides to show off his BJJ. 

UFC Fight Night Prediction 

Ilia’s three fights to start his UFC career are filled with highlight moments, mostly against taller, knockout fighters like Herbert. Topuria demonstrates good submission defense and knockout power. His work to the body of taller opponents should be concerning for Herbert. 
Herbert’s loss to Trinaldo was a head kick that could have stopped anyone, but I worry for his overall ability to manage stronger, shorter fighters. Ilia is built just like Trinaldo and Moicana, two fighters that made quick work of his lanky frame. Outside of the UFC Herbert relied on the muay thai clinch and long strikes against stationary fighters. Ilia is on another level than the fighters he’s defeated. 
Our UFC Fight Night 204 betting prediction is Ilia Topuria Points Spread -3.5 at -400. It pays out better than his moneyline and Ilia is one of the better fighters on the card. I hope he gets his chance to fight Pimblett in the year to steal some of that hype train.

UFC Fight Night Odds and Predictions: UFC Vegas 51 Prelims 

There are six bouts in the UFC prelims. We’ll take a close look at the UFC betting odds for each fight and offer our top prediction. 

Mike Grundy vs Makwan Amirkhani 

Grundy is another fighter from New Generation in London. Amirkhani is the underdog, and this fight card was built as a competitive bout for the local to win. Grundy has lost his last two fights, winning only one in the UFC to date. Makwan is on a three fight losing streak, going 6-5 in the UFC since his debut in 2015. 

UFC Fight Night Betting Odds

Bet Available at Betonline.ag UFC Fight Night Odds  
Makwan Amirkhani Money Line +159
Mike Grundy Money Line -184
Over 2½ Rounds -225
Under 2½ Rounds  +185
Goes the Distance ‘Yes’  -190
Goes the Distance ‘No’ +155
Grundy by Points +150
Amirkhani by Points +250
Grundy Inside the Distance +300
Amirkhani Inside the Distance +375
Grundy in Round 1 +600
Amirkhani in Round 3  +2000

Grundy was the underdog at +310 in his one UFC win. He lost to Vannata as the -111 favorite and Evloev as a +162 underdog. Amirkhani was the underdog in two of his last three losses. Makwan’s last upset was defeating Jason Knight in 2018 as a +155 underdog. 

UFC Prop Betting and UFC Fight Night Prediction 

Grundy is a quality wrestler that uses body lock takedowns that should keep him out of the choke attempts of Amirkhani. 
Either fighter winning by points seems likely, but Grundy inside the distance isn’t a terrible bet. Grundy loses fights due to his kickboxing ability, but so does Amirkhani. Amirkhani gives up takedowns and that’s exactly what Grundy is looking for. He’s also never landed more than 32 strikes in any given contest in the UFC. He’ll need volume to beat Grundy, something he’s not used to utilizing. 
Take the easy bet on the Grundy money line at-184. 

Sergei Pavlovich vs Shamil Abdurakhimov 

Sergei is 2-1 in the UFC after a debut loss to Alistar Overeem. He faces Abdurakhimov, who is now 5-4 in the UFC. Both fighters have knockout power, and both fighters have been knocked out. Sergei Pavlovich is the favorite, but only because of Shamil’s chin. 

UFC Fight Night Betting Odds

Bet Available at Betonline.ag UFC Fight Night Odds  
Abdurakhimov Money Line +245
Pavlovich Money Line -290
Over 1½ Rounds +120
Under 1½ Rounds  -150
Goes the Distance ‘No’  -400
Abdurakhimov by Points +500
Pavlovich by Points +650
Abdurakhimov by TKO  +650
Pavlovich by TKO  -215
Abdurakhimov Round 1 TKO  +1700
Pavlovich Round 1 TKO  +105

Sergei was the favorite in his last two UFC performances and the underdog in his debut, putting oddsmakers and bettors at 100% over his UFC performances. Abdurakhimov lost to Daukus and Bladyes as the underdog, but upset Marcin Tybura at +120 with a second round TKO. 

UFC Prop Betting and UFC Fight Night Prediction 

Shamil’s strategy against Lewis was to secure the takedown. In that fight he took Lewis down four times, but did no real damage, and Lewis gained another late fight TKO finishing it in the fourth round. 

Pavlovich has a 50% takedown defense. I can see him giving up some takedowns to Shamil in an upset decision. I would bet the under props, but I think with only three rounds we may see a decision. Pavlovich by TKO doesn’t offer good enough odds to risk it, and the Shamil money line is too small to bet on for a wrestling driven decision from a 40 year old heavyweight. Our UFC Fight Night 204 betting pick is Sergei Pavlovich money line at -290. 


Nikita Krylov vs Paul Craig 

Krylov has wins over big name fighters but struggles against top ten UFC light heavyweights. He’s lost four of his last six fights to fighters in the top ten, most recently Magomed Ankalaev. Craig is a submission fighter who developed knockout power out of nowhere over his last two fights. He boasts five UFC submission finishes and two knockouts, but losses to fighters like Jimmy Crute and Alonzo Meinifield. 

UFC Fight Night Betting Odds

Bet Available at Betonline.ag UFC Fight Night Odds  
Krylov Money Line -185
Crag Money Line +160
Over 1½ Rounds -150
Under 1½ Rounds  +120

Krylov was the underdog in his loss to Ankalaev, but had been the favorite in his losses to Teixeira, Jan Blachowicz and Misha Cirkunov. That’s three upset losses in five years. Paul Craig was the underdog in his win over Hill at +225, and he beat Rua and Antigulov as the favorite. His losses to Crute, Menifeild, and Rountree were all as the underdog ranging +127 to +305. The UFC Fight Night Odds show that Craig is the better bet over the last five fights, and that oddsmakers and betters have been more accurate in their perceptions of Paul Craig as a fighter. 

Craig is ever improving, and his recent fights have shown his potential.

UFC Prop Betting and UFC Fight Night Prediction

Craig is on a roll. He’s not been able to beat a fighter at the Krylov level for some time, but he’s come close. His new found belief in his power may be enough to offer him the victory. Krylov’s wins mostly come by way of submission. He has three knockout wins, that’s just one more than Craig. I see Craig as the better wrestler, and Krylov in for an upset loss, possibly by submission given the fights with Jan and Cirkunov. 
Our UFC betting pick is Paul Craig at +160. 

Jack Shore vs Timur Valliev 

Both fighters are undefeated in the UFC,and only Shore has established any UFC finishes. Expect a competitive match up, as Shore tests Valliev’s takedown defense. Valliev does have a loss to Trevin Jones in the UFC, but it was overturned for cannabis use, so he can be finished but you have to smoke pot to do it. 

UFC Fight Night Betting Odds and Prediction

Bet Available at Betonline.ag UFC Fight Night Odds  
Shore Money Line -102
Valliev Money Line -118
Over 2½ Rounds -245
Under 2½ Rounds  +195

We’re going to go the obvious route and predict the Over 2 ½ Rounds prop bet. Timur has knockout power but struggles to use it on quality grapplers. Shore has a 100% takedown defense, and will likely win the takedown over Timur but be unable to finish. Timur has never been submitted in his career, and the majority of his knockout wins came early in his fight career prior to 2019. 

Cory McKenna vs Elise Reed 

Cory has won back to back UFC decision wins. She faces Elise Reed, who was knocked out in her UFC debut against Sijara Eubanks. 

UFC Fight Night Betting Odds UFC Fight Night Prediction

Bet Available at Betonline.ag UFC Fight Night Odds  
Reed Money Line +210
McKenna Money Line -245
Over 2½ Rounds -300
Under 2½ Rounds  +240

She’s a bit reserved, but you don’t have to talk big to deliver.
Prior to her UFC debut, Elise looked unstoppable. She beat UFC fighter Jasmine Jasudavicius in 2020 and went 7-1 in her amatuer career with five amatuer stoppages. She has knockout power but wasn’t able to use it against the better wrestler Eubanks. 
McKenna hasn’t lost a fight since 2018 and was an undefeated amatuer. She’s also a finisher, with three pro finishes outside the UFC. I think the Under 2 ½ Rounds prop bet looks like a high paying winner. Both fighters look to finish early, and Reed may be one of the hardest hitting women McKenna has ever faced. Our betting pick is Under 2 ½ Rounds at +240.

Cody Durden vs Muhammad Mokaev 

The opening fight of the evening is a showcase of finisher Mokaev. Durden is 1-2 coming off a decision win in a close fight with Aoiqileng. 
Mokaev is an undefeated fighter outside of the UFC out ofKHK in England. He had a massive amatuer career where he went a stunning 22-0. 

UFC Fight Night Betting Odds UFC Fight Night Prediction

Bet Available at Betonline.ag UFC Fight Night Odds  
Durden Money Line +300
Mokaev Money Line -400
Over 2½ Rounds +110
Under 2½ Rounds  -140 

Mokaev is a gamesman, who is happy to take fights to a decision win if he feels its’ necessary, so I’ll be steering clear of the prop bets.
Durden is a good fighter but has displayed holes in his grappling that Mokaev will no doubt exploit, especially in submission defense. 
Duren’s UFC bouts don’t display the level of kickboxing defense needed for Mokaev, absorbing 4.1 strikes per minute on average. This is one of my more confident picks on the card, and a good choice for a parlay. 
Our betting pick is the Mokaev moneyline at -400. 

UFC Fight Night 204 Odds Wrap Up

If you’re new to betting on UFC, start with our top UFC betting sites to see our reviews of each. Fight Night 204 is a card that’s built for the fans in London. Many of these fights are one sided on purpose, tipping the hat toward local fans. Use that to your betting advantage. 

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Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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