UFC Fight Night 207 Volkov vs Rozenstruik Odds and Predictions

UFC Fight Night June 4 Sat

Volkov vs Rozenstruik is locked in for Saturday night, and here at The Sports Geek, we were on the money for Volkov and Rozenstruik’s last performance. We’re covering the full fourteen fight card including the UFC Fight Night 207 odds from Bovada, one of the top UFC betting sites
The UFC Fight Night 207 picks are focused on low risk and the most likely outcome, but we’ll include tips on a few long shot bets and why we might add them to a betting ticket. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Predictions

Here’s the top betting pick for each bout:

  • Alexander Volkov vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik: Volkov Money Line -165
  • Dan Ige vs Movsar Evloev: Over 1.5 Prop -550
  • Michael Trizano vs Lucas Almeida: Under 2.5 +155
  • Karine Silva vs Poliana Botelho: Silva Money Line -124
  • Ode Osbourne vs Zarrukh Adashev: Osbourne Money Line -190
  • Alonzo Menifield vs Askar Mozharov:Fight to End in Round 1, No -115
  • Felice Herrig vs Karolia Kowalkiewicz: Kowalkiewicz Money Line +105
  • Joe Solecki vs Alex Da Silva: Over 1.5 -240
  • Damon Jackson vs Dan Argueta: Argueta Money Line +425
  • Niklas Stolze vs Benoit Saint Denis: Saint Denis Money Line -165
  • Johnny Munoz vs Tony Gravely: Over 1.5 Rounds -170
  • Jeff Molina vs Zhalgas Zhuagulov: Molina Money Line-190 
  • Rinat Fakhretdinov vs Andreas Michalidis: Fakhretdinov Money Line -285 
  • Erin Blanchfield vs JJ Alrdich: Over 2.5 -260


UFC Fight Night 207 Odds for Alexander Volkov vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik 

Betting odds for Volkov vs Rozenstruik show Volkov as a slight favorite. With both fighters coming off  losses to grapplers, it’s easy to move toward UFC Fight Night 207 picks that are focused on stand up victories and early knockouts. Both men are veteran kickboxers, and both have been knocked out in the UFC only once. 
Volkov has been the favorite in every other fight over his last four, losing twice as the underdog at +125 and +140. His only upset loss was to Derrick Lewis as a -155 favorite, via third round TKO. 
Rozenstruik has lost three of his last five, each as the underdog ranging from +200 to +290. His current +135 is the lowest payout he’s ever shown as the underdog. Recent wins have ranged from -115 to 157, with each fight ending in a knockout. Our UFC Fight Night 207 predictions for Volkov vs Rozenstruik reflect Rozenstruik’s high level kickboxing and Volkov’s tendency to win as the favorite. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Betting Odds for Volkov vs Rozenstruik

Betting Pick  Volkov  Rozenstruik  Over/Yes  Under/No 
Money Line Bet  -165 +135
By Points +210 +575
By TKO  +215 +180
Inside the Distance Win +175 +190
Round 1 Stoppage +600 +525 -375 +260
2.5 Rounds  -185 +140
3.5 Rounds  -125 -105
Fight Goes the Distance  +115 -150

Rozenstruik shows greater odds than Volkov on the TKO, which is telling of how this fight should go. The oddsmakers see a Volkov decision win, but a +115 on going the distance. The fight should go the distance, and Volkov is less likely to win by knockout.I’m confident in both fighter’s ability to win via TKO, but less so in their willingness to engage with aggression. Volkov has the range finding to win via decision, but his head movement is atrocious, and Jarizinho’s kickboxing background is going to play a major factor.

UFC Fight Night 207 Top Prop Bets for Volkov vs Rozenstruik

The ‘Fight Goes the Distance, No’ prop bet is a +115 and matches with both fighters’ ideal bout. Volkov decisions like Tybura and Gane were mostly a result of point fighting from his opponents.’I don’t see Rozenstruik shooting for any takedowns, so unless Volkov is scared of Rozenstruik’s power, we’ll see a kickboxing match. 
Of their UFC appearances, five of Volkov’s twelve and six of Rozenstruik’s eight have been from a knockout win or loss. According to UFC stats, both fighters get hit an average of three times per minute. They use range finding foot work rather than head movement, which can make for an occasionally boring match up. 

Tale of the Tape for Rozenstruik vs Volkov

Fighter Jairzinho Bigi Boy Rozenstruik Alexander Drago Volkov
Age 34 34
Height 6’2 6’7’’
Reach/Stance 78’’ Orthodox  80’’ Orthodox 
Record 12-3 34-10
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/5 0/4
Last Weigh in  242 250
Striking Accuracy 46% 57%

Drago strikes more often and lands more shots. His reach and height will make it tough for Rozenstruik to land big kicks, and he’ll need to focus on forward moving aggression to take the win. Volkov is smothering, and his height advantage could have Rozenstruik on the back foot for most of the fight. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Predictions from UFC Stats

Both fighters are going to land significant strikes, with both fighters matching in strikes absorbed per minute. Your UFC Fight Night 207 pick should reflect the fact that Volkov’s last takedown was against Curtis Blaydes, and he only uses takedowns as a form of counter wrestling. 

Even Rozenstruik think Volkov will shoot, but I’m not convinced he’ll do more than clinch fight.
Volkov has had three five round fights, winning only one against Fabricio Werdum in 2018. Rozenstruik has headlined twice, going 1-1, which includes his 2019 five round buzzer beater knockout of Alistar Overeem.  

UFC Fight Night 207 Prediction for Volkov vs Rozenstruik

Our top betting pick is Alexander Drago Volkov at -165. The Ciryl Gane fight tipped the scales on this UFC Fight Night 207 pick. Volkov was competitive, landing strikes and even winning rounds. Rozenstruik struggled to find his range, and Volkov is even lankier than Gane. Expect Rozenstruik to struggle with range finding. Volkov pays out at $60.61 per $100 wager, and that’s without any first time bonuses from one of the Top MMA Betting Sites. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Odds for Dan Ige vs Movsar Evloev 

Ige is on a two fight losing streak, going 1-3 since 2021. He’s not getting it any easier, facing off against the undefeated Evloev, who’s now 5-0 in the UFC. 

His power is consistently underestimated.

Ige vs Evloev Betting History

Evloev has never been the underdog, ranging from -167 to -556 in the UFC. Our UFC Fight Night 207 odds show that he opened at -200, but has doubled in strength as the favorite to -400, peaking at -440. 
Ige was the favorite in his loss to Chan Sung Jung, the Korean Zombie, at -143. He was the underdog in his three other losses. He upset Barboza with a +115, Kevin Aguilar at +125 and Mirsad Bektic at +100 in a close decision win. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Betting Odds for Ige vs Evloev 

Betting Pick  Dan Ige  Movsar Evloev  Over/Yes  Under/No 
Money Line Bet  +305 -400
By Points +500 -168
By TKO  +850 +525
By Submission  +1500 +700
Inside the Distance Win +650 +265
Round 1 Stoppage +1200 +650
1.5 Rounds  -550 +350
2.5 Rounds  -425 +285
Fight Goes the Distance  -275 +205

Ige is down on the odds due to his below average takedown defense for a top five fighter. His UFC Fight Night 207 odds have him at the greatest underdog position of his career. Evloev has a bit of that Khamzat mystique. He’s not fought anyone that can give him a major challenge yet, so the instinct is to say he’ll blow Ige out of the water. In reality, this should be a long and competitive fight. Evloev is untested. This fight reminds me of Tim Elliot vs Tagir Ulanbekov. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Top Props for Ige vs Evloev 

The over 1.5 rounds prop bet covers all of Evloev’s five UFC wins, each via decision. Evloev can box, and he did so against grappler Mike Grundy. His preference is to score many takedowns, and set up his strikes via the threat of those takedowns. 
Ige has first round finishing power, displayed against fighters like Gavin Tucker and Danny Henry. Other than Tucker, these fighters have failed to be competitive at a UFC level. The Over is one of the lowest risk bets on this card. 

Tale of the Tape for Ige vs Evloev 

Fighter Dan 50k Ige  Movsar Evloev
Age 30 28
Height 5’7’’ 5’7’’
Reach/Stance 71’’ Orthodox  72’’ Orthodox 
Record 15-5 15-0
Submissions/TKO in UFC 2/2 0/0
Takedown Average per FIght 1.35 4
Takedown Defense 55% 71%

Ige goes for less takedowns on average, and scored only one in his last four fights. Evoev has used his takedowns to rack up massive control time, totalling 17 minutes over his last three appearances alone. Ige’s submission game is threatening, and he’ll be using it as a way to deter Evloev from the ground, but it’s doubtful that’s how Ige finishes. 
Our UFC Fight Night 207 pick should reflect Ige’s recent performances above his lifetime achievements, which includes three decision losses, with six fights going to decision over his last seven. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Predictions for Ige vs Evloev

We think that Evloev will win the fight and his ‘by decision’ prop bet is a good deal at -168. However, our betting pick is Over 1.5 Rounds at -550, an $18.18 payout per $100 wager. Ige is in this fight, and he’s shown third round finishing power in the past. We’re banking on Evloev to get early control time, but counting out an Ige finish feels foolish. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Odds for Michael Trizano vs Lucas Almeida

Lucas Almeida was undefeated until his loss to Daniel Zellhuber at DWCS. He’s getting a shot at redemption against Trizano, a fighter at 3-2 in the UFC. Trizano is coming off a 1-2 run that includes losses to Dawodu and Grant Dawson. Both of those fighters are quality featherweights, but Trizano’s lower striking volume left him overwhelmed by both fighters. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Betting Odds for Trizano vs Almeida

Betting Pick  Trizano  Almeida  Over/Yes  Under/No 
Money Line Bet  -240 +193
By TKO or Sub +250 +425
Round 1 Stoppage +700 +1000 +300
1.5 Rounds  -350 +250
2.5 Rounds  -205 +155
Fight Goes the Distance  -165 +125

Trizano is the favorite for the third time in the UFC after his two underdog losses. He opened at -180 and peaked at -265. However, his slower style isn’t suited well against the aggressive Almeida. All thirteen of Almeida’s wins have been via finish, including Brazilian standouts like Bruno Tavares. I think the pace of this fight is going to be more frantic than oddsmakers are letting on. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Prop Betting for Trizano vs Almeida

Almeida’s finishing rate and Trizano’s high strike absorption point to an upset. The Trizano vs Almeida betting odds for Under 2.5 Rounds have a strong payout. They offer just less than the Almeida money line, while covering for any Trizano upsets. 

One of Mike’s better performances to date.
We do see an Almeida finish, and the ‘Fight Goes the Distance, no’ prop bet offers a slightly weaker payout. 

Tale of the Tape for Trizano vs Almeida 

Fighter Michael The Lone Wolf Trizano  Lucas Almeida 
Age 30 31
Height 5’11’’ 5’11’’
Reach/Stance 71’’ Orthodox  71’’ Orthodox 
Record 10-2 13-1
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/0 0/0 (5/8 outside the UFC)
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute 3.93 7.67

Zellhuber destroyed Lucas with a high rate of fire, but Almeida landed 96 significant strikes as well. 118 overall. Trizano’s only losses have been in the UFC, but his experience level isn’t far beyond Almeida’s. Trizano’s UFC wins have been over fighters with low finishing ratios in the UFC, and I think Almeida has already proven he has the chin for UFC talent. 
While making your UFC Fight Night 207 pick, consider that Almeida’s 7.67 per minute strike absorption is only from one DWCS fight. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Betting Pick for Trizano vs Almeida

Bet the Trizano finish prop if you’re looking for the highest payout, but we’re focused on a balance of value and risk. Our UFC Fight Night 207 prediction is Under 2.5 Rounds at +155, a $155 payout per $100 wager. 
Almeida is underrated because of his loss, and his DWCS opponent Zellhuber is going to do a number on the UFC featherweight division. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Odds for Karine Silva vs Poliana Botelho 

Silva won her DWCS appearance and contract last October, winning as the favorite with -250 odds. Her opponent Qihui Yan was getting the better of the striking exchanges prior to Silva’s Guillotine win.
 Botelho is 3-3 in the UFC, recently losing as the favorite to Luana Carolina at -245. She was also upset by Cynthia Calvillo at -170 back in 2-18. Her days as the favorite are ending, and she comes in the underdog twice for the first time in her career. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Betting Odds for Botelho vs Silva 

Betting Pick  Botelho  Silva  Over/Yes  Under/No 
Money Line Bet  EVEN -124
By Points +200 +215
By Submission  +1200 +425
Inside the Distance Win +310 +275
1.5 Rounds  -325 +230
2.5 Rounds  -175 +135
Fight Goes the Distance  -155 +113
Fight Ends in Round 1 +350 -550

Silva is on a five fight finishing streak that includes four submissions. Her submission game is varied, including heel hooks, armbars and triangle chokes, so give her submission prop a second look if you’re thinking of going for the big odds in this fight. 

This is her only UFC finish.
Poliana has only been submitted once in her career. She doesn’t focus on submission attempts in the UFC.

UFC Fight Night 207 Prop Picks for Silva vs Botelho

Prop bets like ‘Fight Ends in Round 1, No’ match up with all the previous outcomes from Silva and Botelho in the UFC. However, Silva has multiple first round finishes outside of the promotion and is willing to pull guard and dive on leg locks to get the finish. Counting out the first round finish is to ignore Silva’s style altogether. 
The Silva submission prop is great for a higher risk payout, and Botelho by points is the only prop worth focusing on for fans of Poliana Botelho. 

Tale of the Tape for Silva vs Botelho 

Fighter Karine Killer Silva  Poliana Botelho 
Age 28 32
Height 5’5’’ 5’8’’
Reach/Stance 67’’ Orthodox  67’’ Orthodox 
Record 14-4 8-4
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/0 0/1
Strikes Absorbed per Minute 4.01 2.75
Submission attempt average per fifteen minutes 4.5 0.0

Silva is the stockier fighter, and that can be an advantage when looking for takedowns. She was hit often in her DWCS bout, but Botelho has an average strike rate of 2.83 per minute, fairly low, and lower than Silva’s first opponent. 
Poliana likes to use knees and kicks against shorter fighters, with the 5’4’’ Syuri Kondo accounting for her only head kick knockout. For your Silva vs Botelho betting pick, consider Botelho’s UFC level performances, against other top grapplers. Two of her three losses have been in fights where she was taken down. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Betting Pick for Silva vs Botelho

Our betting pick is the Karine Silva money line. She’s an aggressive grappler, which has been Botelho’s bane in the past. Silva presents unique submission work that is centered around strength, something rare in the women’s featherweight division. 
Silva’s money line pays out at $80.26 per $100 wager. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Odds for Ode Osbourne vs Zarrukh Adashev

Both fighters have struggled in the UFC, and Osbourne vs Adashev betting odds take into account their experience outside the promotion. Adashev has only seven fights on record, going 1-2 in the UFC. He’s been the underdog in every bout, upsetting Ryan Benoit at +126. 

The Jamaican Sensation has fallen in favor since a stunning debut.
Ode is coming off a win as a -184 favorite over Carlos Vergara. He lost as the favorite in his second UFC bout to Kelleher as a -160. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Betting Odds for Osbourne vs Adashev

Betting Pick  Osbourne  Adashev  Over/Yes  Under/No 
Money Line Bet  -190 +151
By Points +215 +300
By TKO  +250 +475
Inside the Distance Win +165 +400
2.5 Rounds  -135 +105
Fight Goes the Distance  -113 -122

Ode’s two UFC finishes give him a marginally better chance at an inside the distance prop bet win. The Goes the Distance prop bets are split nearly even, with Adashev finishing no bouts. Adashev has been knocked down twice, once in his knockout loss, and another in his win over Ryan Benoit. Collectively, they’ve seen only three decisions, as Ode has been finished twice in his UFC losses. Your UFC Fight Night 207 picks should consider the Under props, if only because each fighter has a history of a high volume and sudden finishes. 

Tale of the Tape for Osbourne vs Adashev 

Fighter Ode The Jamaican Sensation Osbourne Zarrukh The Lion Adashev 
Age 30 29
Height 5’7’’ 5’5’’
Reach/Stance 73’’ Southpaw 65’’ Southpaw
Record 10-4, 1 NC 4-3
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/1 0/0
Strike Absorbed per Minute 4.92 2.91
Takedown Average  1.09 0.0

Adashev has never completed a takedown, but his .5 submission average shows that he likes to counter attempts with guillotines and over sprawl attacks. Osbourne gets hit more often, despite having the greater reach advantage. This is partially because Adashev was knocked out in only two strikes for his UFC debut. When considering the UFC Fight Night 207 odds on this bout, consider Osbourne’s eight inch reach advantage and how it will play against Adashev’s stand up focused style. 

UFC FIght Night 207 Prediction for Osbourne vs Adashev

Osbourne is the favorite for a reason. Sumudaeji taught us what to do against the Lion when you have a significant reach, and Osbourne should recreate most of that strategy. I expect a borning point fight from Ode. Our UFC FIght Night 207 betting pick pays out at $52.63 per $100 wager. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Odds for Alonzo Menifield vs Askar Mozharov 

Menifield is six months off his loss to William Knight at -154. All three of Menifield’s losses in the UFC have been upsets, and he’s never been the underdog. Mozharov is new to the UFC. None of his fights have a betting odds history, but he’s a finisher on a three fight winning streak. He’s been active as a pro since 2013, and has served up seventeen finishes. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Betting Odds for Menifield vs Mozharov 

Betting Pick  Menifield Mozharov Over/Yes  Under/No 
Money Line Bet  -170 +142
By Points +800 +900
By TKO  +135 +180
Inside the Distance Win -125 +165
1.5 Rounds  +160 -210
2.5 Rounds  +300 -450
Fight to End in Round 1 -115 -115

Both fighters have stopping power and a history of finishing fights or losing in a blaze of glory. For that the UFC Fight Night 207 odds show a very high chance of early finishes from either fighter. 
Menifield’s three UFC decisions have come inside his last five fights. This could mean he’s slowing down and getting more methodical overall. He finished Cherant with a Von Flue Choke in March 2021, and was knocked out by OSP in 2020. With a history of first round TKO performances, it looks like Menifield was best at knocking out grapplers. Kickboxing pros like Mozharov have had an easier time surviving his power. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Prop Betting Picks for Menifield vs Mozharov

Given their history of kickboxing experience, I think we’ll see longer fights. Menifield was finished by OSP in round two, and his knockouts are over fighters centered around grappling. Paul Craig, Vinicius Moreira and Daniel Jolly were almost exclusively submission hunters. Once Menifield faced MMA focused fighters, we saw longer bouts. 
Mozharov is a complete fighter and student of the game. I see him serving up the kind of spinning kick and forward aggression style that will lead to clinching early on. 

Tale of the Tape for Menifield vs Mozharov 

Fighter Alonzo Atomic Menifield  Askar Mozharov 
Age 34 27
Height 6’0’’ 6’3’’
Reach/Stance 76’’ Orhtodox  74’’ Orthodox 
Record 11-3 21-11
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/4 Debut (6/11 outside the promotion)
Fighter Training Camp Seakson’s Muay Thai Top Team Thailand 

Both fighters are out of Muay Thai centered schools. Mozharov is used to fighters he can cut right through, and Menifield has a 52% striking defense at a UFC level. I see Mozharov’s conditioning weakness coming back to haunt him in this fight. He’ll come out in round one as if fired out of a cannon, but see quickly that UFC level strikers require winning consistent rounds, not just finishing early. 

UFC FIght Night 207 Prediction for Menifield vs Mozharov

Our betting pick is “the Fight Ends in Round 1, No” prop bet. I think we could see a second or third round TKO, but both fighters have the kickboxing centered experience to make it out of round 1 alive. Mozharov’s kill or be killed style will get stifled by Menifield’s experience, and conditioning will play a major role in who wins. The Round 1, No prop bet pays out at -115, $86.96 per $100 wager. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Odds for Felice Herrig vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz 

Herrig is in the midst of a three fight skid, started by Korlina. She gets her rematch fight four years later. Kowalkiewicz hasn’t won a single fight since she beat Felice Herrig, losing five straight. One fighter will get back in the win column. 
Herrig has been the favorite only once since 2015, going 4-4 with four upsets. Karolina was upset by Penne and Waterson at -133 and -150 respectively. In her five UFC wins, she was the underdog twice. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Betting Odds for Herrig vs Kowalkiewicz 

Betting Pick  Herrig  Kowalkiewicz Over/Yes  Under/No 
Money Line Bet  -125 +105
By Points +135 +150
By TKO  +1600 +800
Inside the Distance Win +400 +500
1.5 Rounds  -500 +325
2.5 Rounds  -325 +230
Fight Goes the Distance  -310 +210
Winning Round, 2 -450 +300

Herrig shows up the favorite despite her loss to Karolina. Her losing streak is shorter, but it isn’t as if her performances were much better. The under is +325, but both fighters are coming off early losses. Herrig will be looking for the takedown and submission, something she wasn’t focused on in the first fight with Karolina, and many analysts see Kowalkiewicz’s submission game as second rate. Kowarlkiewicz has been submitted twice across 12 UFC appearances.  

Tale of the Tape for Herrig vs Kowalkiewicz

Fighter Felice lil Bulldog Herrig  Karol Kowalkiewicz 
Age 37 36
Height 5’4’’ 5’3’’
Reach/Stance 65’’ Orthodox  64’’ Orthodox 
Record 14-9 12-7
Submissions/TKO in UFC 2/0 0/0
Takedown Offensive and Defensive % 30%, 72% 22%, 74%

These fighters have similar grappling stats despite having very different focuses. Karol would much rather win striking exchanges and land occasional ground strikes from top, while Herrig is almost entirely a grappler by fight game plan. The UFC Fight NIght 207 odds show Herrig as a +500 submission winner to +1200 for Karol. I don’t see why Herrig is the favorite, if submission is her only chance at success. I don’t see her winning via control time, as that seems to have been recently devalued in the judges scorecards. 

UFC FIght Night 207 Prediction for Herrig vs Kowalkiewicz

Kawalkiewicz will win in total strikes landed for a long fight. Herrig has never been finished, but at 38 and no fights since August 2020,  I’m not putting a knockout loss past her. Karol pays out as the underdog, $105 per $100 wager. The Herrig vs Kowalkiewicz odds putting the former winner as the underdog leaves a big opening for what feels like an obvious outcome. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Odds for Joe Solecki vs Alex Da Silva 

The Solecki vs Silva odds history reveals that Alex da Silva’s money line odds haven’t missed in the UFC, accurately predicting his 1-2 record. Solecki was the favorite in his last loss to Jared Gordon at -121. He was the underdog in his win over Austin Hubbard in 2020 at +110. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Betting Odds for Solecki vs Da Silva 

Betting Pick  Solecki  Da Silva  Over/Yes  Under/No 
Money Line Bet  -174 +139
By Points +180 +325
By TKO  +900 +400
By Submission +275 +1200
1.5 Rounds  -240 +180
2.5 Rounds  -145 +110
By TKO or Sub +200 +350

Solecki has two submission wins in his UFC run, and a close grappling performance over Jim Miller. His grappling game wasn’t enough to edge out the win over Gordon, but can Da Silva do enough to survive Solecki’s smother?
Da Silva has good takedown ratios and defense, but has already been submitted once in the UFC. I see a close fight between two grapplers. They boast similar striking accuracy stats at 2.6 per minute from Solecki and 2.07 for Da Silva. Our UFC FIght Night 207 pick for Solecki vs Da Silva is the Over 1.5 Rounds prop bet at -240. This pays out at $41.67 per $100 wagerd. As against Miller, Solecki will focus on clinch fighting and forcing Da Silva into bad takedowns. Da Silva has a more dangerous knockout ratio, with 13 KOs outside of the UFC. This could be the fight where he displays his sudden stopping power, which is why we avoided the Solecki Money Line. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Odds for Damon Jackson vs Dan Argueta 

Jackson is 3-2-1, 1NC in the UFC since his debut in 2015. He’s submitted two opponents, and his grappling has improved drastically since his debut. Dan Artueta is a newcomer to the UFC. He’s 8-0 out of Jackson-Wink camp. Dan lost a decision to Ricky Turcios in the first round of TUF 29, but he’s since won three fights including two stoppages and a win over the CES champion Diego Silva. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Betting Odds for Jackson vs Argueta

Betting Pick  Jackson  Argueta  Over/Yes  Under/No 
Money Line Bet  -575 +425
By Points +225 +650
By Submission -112 +1200
1.5 Rounds  -145 +110
2.5 Rounds  +120 -155

The Jackson vs Argueta odds tell us a story about Jackson’s submission work. That he’s lightyears passed Argueta in terms of BJJ and grappling, but I don’t know that it’s true. His wrestling appears to be more technical, and he’s more athletic than Jackson overall. Jackson’s guillotine work is worth respecting, but he’s been finished outside of the UFC at PFL, and has struggled to deal with young high level athletes as he ages (34.) 
Our UFC Fight Night 207 pick is the underdog, Dan Argueta at +425. He choked at TUF, I think his anxieties are out of the way. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Odds for Niklas Stolze vs Benoit Saint Denis

Stolze is 0-2 in the UFC, and coming off a knockout last July. He faces Benoit, a promising formerly undefeated fighter that took his last loss in October’s UFC 267. We have two Europeans that were supposed to be world beaters. One of them will get their first UFC win. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Betting Odds for Stolze vs Saint Denis 

Betting Pick  Stolze  Saint Denis Over/Yes  Under/No 
Money Line Bet  +135 -165
By Points +375 +300
By TKO  +500 +550
1.5 Rounds  -170 +130
2.5 Rounds  -110 -120
Fight Goes the Distance  +125 -176

It’s difficult to judge based off fight tape. Outside of the UFC, neither man has faced anyone significant and blasted through their local competition. Still, It appears that the favorite Benoit Saint Denis is the better pick. His eight finishes outside of the UFC make him the more dangerous man. Bet Saint Denis money line for a $60.98 return per $100 wagerd. The Stoize vs Saint Denis odds point toward a finish, but only Stolze has been finished in his pro career. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Odds for Johnny Munoz vs Tony Gravely

Munoz is 1-1 in the UFC but with an impressive 1.24 striking absorption per minute. He lost a weird decision to Nate Maness, landing 49 significant strikes to Maness’s 21 with 9.42 minutes of control over three rounds. 
Gravely was knocked out by Maness and is 4-2 in the UFC. He has more finishes overall but is small for the bantamweight division. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Betting Odds for Munoz vs Gravely

Betting Pick  Munoz  Gravely  Over/Yes  Under/No 
Money Line Bet  +109 -134
By Points +400 +190
By TKO  +1200 +275
1.5 Rounds  -170 +130
2.5 Rounds  EVEN  -130

Munoz is the underdog in every category. He’s coming off a destruction of debuting fighter Jamey Simmons, while Gravely defeated Saimon Oliveira in a ground striking battle. This fight should be centered around grappling exchanges. For that, we’re looking at the Over 1.5 Rounds. Neither man has a first round finish, and only one of Tony’s finishes was inside the 1.5 rounds range. Our UFC Fight Night 207 prediction for Munoz vs Gravely is a close decision. The Over 1.5 rounds prop pays out $58.82 per $100 wager. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Odds for Jeff Molina vs Zhalgas Zhuagulov 

Molina is undefeated in the UFC and Zhalgas is 1-3. This could be the most one sided fight on the card. Zhalgas’ UFC stats have him at 5.10 strikes absorbed per minute, and Molina lands a crushing 8.72 per minute on average!

UFC Fight Night 207 Betting Odds for Molina vs Zhuagulov

Betting Pick  Molina  Zhaugulov  Over  Under
Money Line Bet  -190 +150
1.5 Rounds  -350 +250
2.5 Rounds  -210 +160

Take the Molina money line at -190 and throw it on a parlay ticket. Molina is set to decimate Zhaugulov in a decision win. He’s a fighter that repeatedly rises to the occasion and has done nothing but improve over his two year UFC stretch. 
Our UFC Fight Night 207 betting pick for Molina vs Zhuagulov pays out $52.63 per $100 wager. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Odds for Rinat Fakhretdinov vs Andreas Michalidis 

Michalidis is 1-2 in the UFC after a flying knee loss to Alex Pereira. He gets a shot at redemption against debuting fighter Fakhretdinov. Rinat is on a fourteen fight winning streak, with a recent win over former UFC fighter Eric Spicely. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Betting Odds for Fakhretdinov vs Michalidis 

Betting Pick  Fakhretdinov Michalidis Over Under
Money Line Bet  -285 +225
1.5 Rounds  -150 +115
2.5 Rounds  +120 -155

Fakhretdinov is going to be a force at 185 in the UFC. He’s finished sixteen of his 19 fights, and has never been finished, including as an amatuer. His last loss was 2013 and Michalidis is struggling with fighters like Modestas Bukauskas, a fighter who’s 1-3 in the UFC. Bet ​​Fakhretdinov for a payout of $35.09 per $100 wager. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Odds for Erin Blanchfield vs JJ Alrdich 

The opening fight of the night is Aldrich, a fighter on a three fight winning streak, 7-3 in the UFC overall, versus the 8-1 Blanchfield. This fight is competitive, and a fight of the night candidate. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Betting Odds for Blanchfield vs Aldrich

Betting Pick  Blanchfield Aldrich Over/Yes  Under/No 
Money Line Bet  -540 +385
1.5 Rounds  -450 +300
2.5 Rounds  -260 +190

Alrdrich is a huge underdog, and I’m tempted to take that position only because of the payout. The more likely candidate is the Over 2.5 rounds, for a payout of -260. Aldrich has only been finished once by the powerhouse Maycee Barber. I think Blanchfield will show a more competitive grappling centered bout with JJ. 
Our UFC Fight Night 207 prediction for Alrich vs Blanchfield pays out $38.46 per $100 wager. 

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Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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