UFC Fight Night: Viera vs Tate Full Card Betting Picks, Latest Odds, and Fight Analysis

UFC Fght Night Vieira Vs Tate

UFC Fight Night on November 20th, 2021 is packed with second chances and BJJ black belts, more so than any card in recent memory. We’re looking for our top UFC betting picks across the eleven fight cards.

We’ll cover the stats and available bets for each bout, finding the hidden factors that will contribute to Saturday night’s winners.

All the betting odds are accurate as of November 15th from the online sportsbooks BetUS.

Ketlen Vieira vs Miesha Tate

The former champion is making a comeback, taking on her second contender of 2021 in Ketlen Vieira. Both fighters offer a decent payout, with Tate coming in as the slight favorite.

Tale of the Tape for Viera vs Tate

Ketlen Vieira Miesha Tate
-105 Odds -115
30 Age 35
5’8″ Height 5’6″
68″ Orthodox Reach/Stance 65″ Orthodox
11-2 Record 19-7
1/0 Submissions/TKO in UFC and Strikeforce 4/1
O -165 Over/Under 4½ Rounds Prop Bet U +135
-275 Loss to Yana Kunitskaya Odds Last Figh +115 Win over Marion Reneau
Nova Uniao Manaus Fighter Training Camp Xtreme Couture, Rugged Combat Sports, UFC Performance Institute

Miesha has a longer and more decorated career. We include the Strikeforce performances because UFC didn’t have a women’s division until 2012. Strikeforce was home to Rousey, Tate, Zingano, and virtually all high-level female fighters at that time.

Viera trains at Nova Uniao Manaus, one of the most decorated MMA gyms in Brazil. Tate has been mixing it up lately, training at multiple gyms in Las Vegas.

Given that both of these fighters are submission athletes I see a TKO prop as unlikely, so your betting pick should stick to money lines, submission finishes or over/unders.

Recent UFC Performances

Viera is 5-2 in the UFC, losing two of her last three bouts. She’s only finished one fighter in Sara McMann via Arm Triangle in 2017.

Miesha left the UFC in 2016, losing her first title defense to the all-powerful Amanda Nunes, then losing to #1 contender Raquel Pennington.

Miesha is 6-4 in the UFC overall, joining in 2013 through TUF as one of the UFC’s first female athletes.

Over/Under Betting Props

Inside the UFC Tate has seen the decision in five fights out of eight, and finished in the third round three times. The over prop is highly likely.

Vieira was knocked out in the first round by Irene Aldana but has five decision bouts in the UFC as well. She has a second-round submission finish, but Tate is so BJJ-centered, I’ll be surprised if we see early submission finishes.

Fight Analysis and Betting Pick

In Vieira’s last bout, she lost a decision to Yana Kunitskaya, landing only seven significant strikes across three rounds.

Miesha Tate won her comeback fight in her first UFC KO in the third round.

Vieira vs Kunitskaya

Vieira focused on the takedown, landing three throughout the fight. She controlled eight minutes of the bout but struggled to do any real damage when she had Yana down. Yana out struck Vieira 7:1 in total strikes.

Yana failed to put Vieira away despite landing hundreds of shots, but it’s clear by Yana’s 2.6 strikes landed per 3.8 absorbed that she needs some work on her defensive striking, primarily in the clinch.

Tate vs Reneau

Tate was a submission fighter when she left the UFC in 2016, but the bout with Marion showed Tate out striking Marion at distance each round. Tate landed 49% of all strikes while standing, and another 38% on the ground.

Reneau is a grappler, similar to Tate. Tate was able to succeed in 50% of takedowns vs Reneau, on par with her average defensive percentage. Given that Vieira’s is 92%, I imagine we’ll see a mostly stand-up battle between Tate and Vieira.

Final UFC Betting Pick

Given that both fighters enjoy ground strikes and submissions but have high takedown defenses and low stand-up knockout ability, I see a decision.

I pick the Over 2½ rounds prop.

Michael Chiesa vs Sean Brady

Chiesa continues his assault on the welterweight division against undefeated black belt Sean Brady.

Tale of the Tape for Viera vs Tate

Michael Chiesa Sean Brady
+121 Odds -141
34 Age 29
6’1″ Height 5’10”
75″ Southpaw Reach/Stance 72″ Orthodox
18-5-0 Record 14-0
6/0 Submissions/TKO in UFC and Strikeforce 2/0
O -125 Over/Under 2½ Rounds Prop Bet U -105
-102 Loss to Vincene Luque Odds Last Figh -200 Win over Jake Matthews
Sikjitsu, Newborn Cascao BJJ, Syndicate MMA Fighter Training Camp Daniel Gracie Philly

The far less experienced Brady comes in a strong favorite. Both fighters are submission-centered, but Sean is a BJJ black belt with a 50% submission rate of his current UFC bouts. In preparation for this fight, Sean has worked closely with Niel Magny. Magny fought Chiesa early this year and lost a close decision after he was unable to stop Chiesa’s takedowns.

Chiesa has both the reach and height advantage.

Over/Under Prop Analysis

Chiesa has seen a decision in three of his last four bouts. Throughout his UFC career, only five bouts total have been over the 2½ Round mark. Sean has seen two submissions and two decision wins since entering the UFC, with 75% of his UFC bouts falling into the Over 2½ Rounds prop.

This fight’s over under prop bets are a coin toss. Either fighter could have the upper hand in submission grappling and end the fight early.

Fight Analysis and Betting Pick

Let’s look at each fighter’s last few bouts to select our money line pick. Keep in mind Chiesa is paying nearly double what Sean is offering.

Sean Brady vs Jake Matthews

Sean took home a third-round arm-triangle submission over Matthews. Jake has shown repeated issues with submission losses, having been submitted three times inside the UFC despite his wrestling pedigree.

Brady was able to outwork the wrestler, winning a takedown in the second round for a 100% takedown accuracy. Brady took the first and second rounds with ease and a slip offered Brady eleven significant ground strikes in the third. Being in bottom position against Brady isn’t wise for Chiesa, and that’s a mistake we’ve seen him making before.

Chiesa vs Luque

Chiesa was quickly finished by high-level submission artist Luque in August, just three months ago. Chiesa scored the only takedown, making it all the way to Luque’s back. He was unable to finish the choke, the position reversed, and Chiesa was caught in a D’arce choke.

Mattews love’s this kind of arm-in-type choking attack, and Chiesa will need to have worked on his hand fighting from under sprawl position.

Brady vs Naurdiev

Brady takes a decision over fellow grappler Nardiev. Naurdiev averages 1.25 takedowns per fight, yet couldn’t score one on Brady. Brady took nearly eight minutes of control in this bout, out striking Naurdiev 125 to 38. This was an incredibly one-sided bout. Ismail’s takedown defense is 70%, similar to Chiesa’s 68%. I can see Brady winning top position often.

Chiesa vs Beneil Dariush

This is the last time Chiesa faced a similar high-profile grappler. Chiesa won, defeating Dariush via RNC submission in 2016. The key for Chiesa was outlasting a long assault. Dariush was on the offensive, and Chiesa was losing the bout significantly until he sunk the choke. Chiesa landed no punches in the second round, but took the back early and began looking for the choke with total disregard for ground striking.

This comes down to Brady’s submission defense. I don’t see Chiesa out striking him or defending the takedown well. He could however get to top position and end the fight in a flash.

Final UFC Betting Pick

Brady is a Black Belt in BJJ, as was Beneil Dariush. If we look closely at the Chiesa fight, it appears to be an issue of conditioning. Chiesa is five years older now, and at 34 I don’t know if he has the same durability.

I pick Sean Brady -141

Rani Yahya vs Kyung Ho Kang

ADCC World Champ and 4x IBJJF World Gold Medalist Rani Yahya faces Mr. Perfect. Kang is 6-2 in the UFC and on a three fight winning streak.

Tale of the Tape for Yahya vs Kang

Rani Yahya Kyung Ho Kang
-110 Odds -110
39 Age 34
5’6″ Height 5’9″
67″ Orthodox Reach/Stance 73″ Orthodox
27-10-1, 1NC Record 17-8-0, 1 NC
11/0 Submissions/TKO in UFC and Strikeforce 3/0
O -150 Over/Under 2½ Rounds Prop Bet U +120
-270 Win over Ray Rodriguez Odds Last Figh -250 Win over Pingyuan Liiu
Constrictor Team Fighter Training Camp Team Mad

Kang is younger, taller, and has a significant six-inch reach advantage. Yahya takes home more total UFC finishes, but less by total percentage.

Yahya’s Team Constrictor has produced multiple IBJJF champions and is built for high-level BJJ, while Team Mad is a growing Chinese MMA school with no other notable athletes or fighters.

Over/Under Prop Analysis

Two of Yahya’s last three fights fell into the Over category, as did six of his last nine UFC bouts. Yahya’s fights have the tendency to go long, focusing on takedowns, control, mitigating damage, and high-level submission fighting. However, he has his share of first-round submissions, so if Kang’s grappling isn’t up to par, it will be over quickly.

Kang has three submission finishes inside the UFC, and his lanky frame serves to outmaneuver many higher-level grapplers. However, Yahya is a much higher-level submission artist than any fighter Kang has faced to date. We’ll see if Kang is more versatile and can integrate better boxing into Saturday’s bout. I see a coin toss between an early submission and a fight that goes to decision. Skip the prop bets on this one.

Fight Analysis and Betting Pick

Let’s take a look at some recent bouts by both fighters. Kang’s been with the UFC since 2013, and Yahya since 2007. I’ll be analyzing their last three performances.

Yahya vs Rodriguez

After a slow fight with few significant strikes, Yahya took home the submission win after seven minutes of ground control, pot shooting his way to the sub. Yahya took little to no damage in this bout, getting hit only fifteen times the whole fight.

Kang vs Liu

After a close decision, Kang found himself outstruck but consistently winning the takedown in the first and second round. Liu’s takedown defense is 56%, and Kang capitalized. Note that Yahya’s is only 24%, and it isn’t uncommon that Yahya accepts the bottom position to hunt for submissions.

Yahya vs Barzola

Yahya and Barzola went to a draw, getting out struck 2:1 in their 2020 fight. Barzola was taken down and controlled by Yahya for five minutes total. This felt like a Yahya loss, as Barzola won the only significant round, landing 46 strikes in round 1 alone. Kang is a slower-paced fighter, landing 65 strikes in his most aggressive win against Shunichi Shimizu in 2014.

Final UFC Betting Pick

In a battle between grapplers, I have to go with the ADCC veteran. Yahya has a strong chance of submitting Kang, who has no UFC knockouts and doesn’t accumulate enough strikes to stifle Yahya. Expect a grinding battle, ending in either a Yahya submission or decision win.

Our pick is Rani Yahya at -110

Joanne Wood vs Taila Santos

Joanne Wood has gone 3-3 of her last six in the UFC and is an even 7-7 since her UFC debut in 2014. Santos is a new fighter, joining in 2018 through DWCS and crushing 4 of five opponents thrown her way, all decision victories.

Tale of the Tape for Wood vs Santos

Joanne Wood Taila Santos
+270 Odds -330
36 Age 28
5’6″ Height 5’6″
66″ Orthodox Reach/Stance 73″ Orthodox
15-6 Record 18-1
1/1 Submissions/TKO in UFC and Strikeforce 0/0 (12 Finishes outside of UFC)
O -325 Over/Under 2½ Rounds Prop Bet U +250
-132 Loss to Lauren Murphy Odds Last Figh -365 Win over Roxanne Modafferi
Syndicate MMA Fighter Training Camp Astra Fight Team

Santos is a strong favorite and for good reason. Wood hasn’t displayed the finishing power necessary to put Santos away, no opponent in the UFC has yet. Santos has no UFC finishes, but Wood may very well be her first.

Santos has youth and reach advantages, coming off a win over a crowd favorite.

Comparing Fighter Training Camps

It’s unclear when Wood switched to Syndicate MMA, but her time there should improve her overall game. Santos’s Astra FT is home to a number of high-level female fighters and BJJ black belts, reflected in her takedown and submission game.

Over Under Analysis

Santos is such a strong favorite, I won’t be missing her $0.30 per dollar wagered payout. On top of that, the Over pays pennies more than a Santos moneyline, and her chances of finishing Wood are likely in my eyes.

Fight Analysis and Betting Pick

Rather than looking at the fighters recent performances, lets see the key stats.

Santos’s Total Takedowns and Wood’s Takedown Defense

Santos has an 86% takedown accuracy, scoring five in her last bout versus Modafferi and five versus McCann. Mara Borella showed us that Santos’s weakness is being a better wrestler. Wood has a 63% takedown defense, and historically wins in fights where she is the better wrestler.

In Wood’s three most recent wins, she won the majority of ground control time and takedowns.
Wood’s percentages and takedown performance point to a Santos win.

Wood Submission Losses

Wood has lost three times in the UFC via submission. She’s shown slowly improving submission defense, but it’s still a problem for her. Santos attempts submissions each bout, and has a blue belt in BJJ, and it could play a factor in our pick.

Final UFC Betting Pick

Santos is a better wrestler with all the tools to beat Wood with a chin that Wood will have trouble putting away.

Our pick is Talia Santos -330

Davey Grant vs Adrian Yanez

Two knockout artists face off and Yanez hopes to continue a knockout streak.

Tale of the Tape for Grant vs Yanez

Davey Grant Adrian Yanez
+215 Odds -255
36 Age 27
5’8″ Height 5’7″
69″ Orthodox Reach/Stance 73″ Orthodox
13-5 Record 14-3
0/2 Submissions/TKO in UFC and Strikeforce 0/4
O -180 Over/Under 1½ Rounds Prop Bet U +150
+188 Loss to Marlon Vera Odds Last Figh -255 Win over Randy Costa
SBG Bishop Auckland Fighter Training Camp Metro Fight Club, Serra BJJ

Grant has the height and UFC experience advantage, while Yanez has the finishing percentage advantage, the reach advantage, and the youth advantage. Yanez is a Serra BJJ alum and could pose a submission threat to SBG’s Grant. SBG fighters have historical issues with submission fighting, and the BJJ in Auckland is under question.

Over/Under Prop Analysis

With two late-round finishes, Yanez is not guaranteeing the Under in the way we’d like. Grant has only been finished via submission, and many think it’s likely he’ll survive Yanez’s power. I have no strong stats that give an over or under indication.

Fight Analysis and Betting Pick

Yanez has finished each UFC opponent with ease except Randy Costa. Costa produced the most competitive fight we’ve seen for Yanez through head hunting and coming out strong in round one.

Yanez’s head movement is in question, and you’ll need to be unafraid of his power to get on the inside of his reach.

Davey Grant Stats

Grant threw 74 strikes leading up to a third-round knockout. Day is 0-5 for the UFC, and poses little knockout threat.

If a striker is a threat, Grant will shoot takedowns, as he did against Grigory Popov, landing six to win the decision in 2019. Grigory is 0-2 in the UFC and has been released.

In his recent loss against Vera, it appears Grant has devolved a bit, wearing down from his early UFC abilities.

Final UFC Betting Pick

Yanez has all the right abilities to take out Grant via knockout. He pays out at $0.39 per dollar wagered. It’s tough not to bet on a fighter that’s on a four-fight UFC winning streak!

Our pick is Adrian Yanez at -255

Pat Sabatini vs Tucker Lutz

The powerful grappler Sabatini faces off against a knockout artist and two-time DWCS winner Tucker Lutz.

Tale of the Tape for Sabatini vs Luts

Davey Grant Adrian Yanez
-120 Odds +100
31 Age 27
5’8″ Height 5’8″
70″ Orthodox Reach/Stance 72″ Orthodox
15-3 Record 14-3
1/0 Submissions/TKO in UFC and Strikeforce 0/0
O -180 Over/Under 2½ Rounds Prop Bet U +150
+130 Win over Jamall Emmers Odds Last Figh -125 Win over Kevin Aguilar
Renzo Gracie Philly, Team Endurance Fighter Training Camp Team Ground Control

Lutz has the age and reach advantage. Sabatin is coming off an underdog win, finishing Emmers with a heel hook in the first round. Lutz will prove his submission and wrestling skills with a win in this fight. Sabatini makes it no secret he’ll be looking for the takedown early.

Over/Under Prop Analysis

I see the Under as slightly more likely. Sabatini is hoping to impress the UFC with early finishes. He’s been called a slow fighter before, putting on grinding, controlling heavy performances and he wants to shake that moniker.

Lutz will be swinging for the fences. He has knockout victories, and it’s unlikely he’ll be able to defend all of Pat’s takedowns. His coaches will have him making use of the time he spends standing, head hunting for an early finish. Bet the under if you go the prop route.

Fight Analysis and Betting Pick

Sabatini has shown multiple ground finishes, and leglocks as early as 2016, racking up three in his eighteen-fight career. This is an x-factor that could play a critical role in the bout with Lutz.

Lutz UFC Stats

Luts has totaled seven takedowns in his past two fights at a 63% accuracy. He’s attempting five takedowns for every three landed.

His focus on takedowns is surprising, because he’s known for his knockout power outside of the UFC.

It seems like the UFC hopes the wrestling of Sabatini and Lutz will balance each other out, and we’ll have a fist fight on our hands. However, Sabatini will dive on leg locks and is likely a better wrestler than Lutz.

Pat UFC Stats and Performances

Pat chains takedowns in a way that UFC stats don’t love. He has a 16% takedown accuracy across two fights, but only because he repeats attempts until an opponent is grounded.

Sabatini nearly lost the fight with Emmers and came back with a sudden leg lock finish.

Final UFC Betting Pick

With Emmers on the way to a win and Lutz on a 12 fight winning streak, I see an upset. I see an upset!

I pick Tucker Lutz at +100

Rafa Garcia vs Natan Levy

A fight that opened with Natan as a +120 underdog has now leveled out to near even odds. Garcia still hasn’t gotten a win in the UFC despite coming in undefeated.

Tale of the Tape for Garcia vs Levy

Davey Grant Adrian Yanez
-112 Odds -108
27 Age 29
5’7″ Height 5’9″
70″ Orthodox Reach/Stance 71″ Orthodox
12-2 Record 6-0
0/0 Submissions/TKO in UFC and Strikeforce 1/0
O -180 Over/Under 2½ Rounds Prop Bet U +150
-290 Loss to Chris Gruetzemacher Odds Last Figh -141 Win over Shaheen Santana
Huntington Beach Ultimate Training Center, Easton Training Center, Elevation MMA Fighter Training Camp Syndicate and UFC Apex

Levy has the height and reach advantages in this lightweight bout. He’s also finished his opponent by submission in DWCS after a long and grinding three round bout.

Over/Under Prop Analysis

The over feels like the right bet, with both fighters seeing three rounds in UFC appearances. It pays less than either fighter’s money line, so we’ll need to lack evidence for one fighter to win.

The under is a greater long shot than +150 and I’m surprised it’s not a better paying prop.

Fight Analysis and Betting Pick

Let’s look at each fighter’s stats, camps, and UFC appearances.

Comparing Fighter Camps

Levy trains at Sanford MMA and UFC Apex. He’s close to the show, and won’t have to travel for the fight, which is an underrated factor. He’s in the company of dozens of UFC contenders and champions.

Rafa has been to several training locations, starting at Elevation in Colorado and moving to California. His various training centers have him in good company, and with many good wrestlers.

Fighter Takedowns and Takedown Defense

Rafa hasn’t been taken down in the UFC, defending four takedowns across two fights. Levy is a takedown-centered fighter, scoring two in his very first bout. It’s clear Levy hopes to get the takedown and submission but will change strategies against the submission-centered Rafa.

Performances Outside of the UFC

Both fighters showed undefeated careers outside the UFC. Natan submitted three of his six opponents with ease, and Rafa showed a similar run of submission and decision wins.

Final UFC Betting Pick

This is a tough fight to call, but I see the submission skills of these two fighters evening out. While I believe Levy is going to win, I’ll be betting the Over 2½ Rounds prop at -180. The majority of fighters that are at UFC level will take both of these men well into the third round, and it’s worth the difference in payout to get some insurance against a Rafa Garcia win.

I pick Over 2½ Rounds prop at -180

Loma Lookboonmee vs Loopy Godinez

A fight that opened with Natan as a +120 underdog has now leveled out to near even odds. Garcia still hasn’t gotten a win in the UFC despite coming in undefeated.

Tale of the Tape for Lookboonmee vs Godinez

Loma Lookboonmee Loopy Godinez
+140 Odds -170
24 Age 28
5’1″ Height 5’2″
61″ Orthodox Reach/Stance 61″ Orthodox
6-2 Record 6-2
0/0 Submissions/TKO in UFC and Strikeforce 1/0
O -325 Over/Under 2½ Rounds Prop Bet U +250
-390 Win over Sam Hughes Odds Last Figh NA
Tiger Muay Thai Fighter Training Camp Titan MMA

Stats are nearly identical between these two athletes.

Over/Under Prop Analysis

The over is heavily likely, but the money lines are a far better payout. There is a small chance that Loma will finish. I’ll be steering clear of the prop bets on this bout.

Fight Analysis and Betting Pick

Lookboonmee has won three of her four UFC opponents, each fight going to decision. Angela Hill defeated her, despite being out struck by the Tiger Muay Thai Alum.

Loopy has only beaten one opponent with a first-round armbar. Her two UFC losses are both via decision, most recently taking a beating from Luana Carolina.

Fight Stats Comparison

Loma lands strikes at 5:3 in the UFC across four fights. Loppy lands at 2:2.5, showing that she is often out struck. Loma will likely win a decision, but this bout could end in a knockout in Loma’s favor.

Fighter Takedowns and Takedown Defense

Rafa hasn’t been taken down in the UFC, defending four takedowns across two fights. Levy is a takedown-centered fighter, scoring two in his very first bout. It’s clear Levy hopes to get the takedown and submission but will change strategies against the submission-centered Rafa.

Performances Outside of the UFC

Both fighters showed undefeated careers outside the UFC. Natan submitted three of his six opponents with ease, and Rafa showed a similar run of submission and decision wins.

Final UFC Betting Pick

Given her fight performances against much higher-level athletes, Loma Lookboonmee at +145 is the right pick. Oddsmakers are worried about Loma’s submission defense, but she’s been working on it for months in preparation for this fight, knowing that is Loopy’s only chance at victory.

I pick Loma Lookboonmee at +145

Terrance McKinney vs Fares Ziam

Two lightweight fighters with mixed UFC results go head to head in Ziam vs McKinney.

Tale of the Tape for Garcia vs Levy

Terrance McKinney Fares Ziam
+103 Odds -123
27 Age 24
5’10” Height 6’1″
73″ Switch Reach/Stance 75″ Orthodox
11-3 Record 12-3
0/1 Submissions/TKO in UFC and Strikeforce 0/0
O +155 Over/Under 2½ Rounds Prop Bet U -185
+180 Win over Matt Frevola Odds Last Figh +102 Win over Luigi Vendramini
Warrior Camp, Newborn Cascao Fighter Training Camp Cross Counter Boxing, La Bonne École, Sanford MMA

Ziam has the youth, height, and reach advantage.

Comparing Fighter Camps

Sanford MMA is home to some of the best fighters in the world, and Cross-Counter Boxing should give Ziam the edge in the head movement and striking defense department.

McKinney trains at Warrior Cap and Newborn Cascao, two BJJ-centered schools with few up-and-coming fighters.

Over/Under Prop Analysis

Ziam fights to a decision and McKinney has had two quick knockouts (one loss and one win) at the UFC level. It’s impossible to predict the Over/Under on this one, given that McKinney’s chin is in question.

Fight Analysis and Betting Pick

Ziam narrowly out struck Luigi Vendramini in his June 2021 appearance. His win over Jamie Mullarkey was a tough fight to judge, with Ziam out striking Mullarkey 2:1 but getting taken down five times for a total of nearly seven minutes of control.

Ziam’s takedown defense is in question. McKinney has solid takedowns, getting two over Sean Woodson before being knocked out with a flying knee, timed off those takedown attempts.

Final UFC Betting Pick

McKinney is a tough fighter to pin down, and though his opening DWCS showing was low quality, I see a victory for him over Ziam. Ziam is a slower-paced fighter, and until the takedown defense issues are solved, he has trouble with fighters like McKinney.

I pick Terrance McKinney at +103

Cody Durden vs Aori Qileng

Neither fighter has won a bout in the UFC, and both look to get their first win.

Tale of the Tape for Durden vs Qileng

Cody Durden Aori Qileng
-160 Odds +140
29 Age 28
5’7″ Height 5’7″
67″ Southpaw Reach/Stance 69″ Orthodox
11-3-1 Record 18-8
0/0 Submissions/TKO in UFC and Strikeforce 0/0
O -205 Over/Under 2½ Rounds Prop Bet U +165
+140 Loss to Jimmy Flick Odds Last Figh +110 Loss to Jeff Molina
American Top Team, Team Lima Fighter Training Camp Team BKS

Aoriqileng has slight natural advantages, while having far more career losses.

Over Under Analysis

The over prop pays out at slightly less than either athlete but covers another fight of the night performance by Aoriqileng. Flick is a much better grappler than Aoriqileng, so the likelihood of a submission or fight finish by either fighter is low.

Fight Analysis and Betting Pick

While we don’t know much about either fighter, having little fight footage and stats that UFC are tough to glean anything from, we do know that both fighters have exciting striking and little fight finishing ability. Cory’s draw with Chris Gutierrez shows us what this fight will likely become, a three-round MMA battle.

I’m looking forward to the fight as a fan, and predict the Over 2½ Rounds prop at -205 for a $0.49 per dollar wagered payout.

I pick Over 2½ Rounds prop at -205

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke vs Sean Soriano

Both fighters have lost all their UFC appearances. Someone will walk away with their first win inside the UFC.

Tale of the Tape for Nuerdanbieke vs Soriano

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke Sean Soriano
+220 Odds -260
27 Age 32
5’8″ Height 5’9″
69″ Orthodox Reach/Stance 70″ Orthodox
19-7 Record 14-7
0/0 Submissions/TKO in UFC and Strikeforce 0/0
O -115 Over/Under 2½ Rounds Prop Bet U -115
NA Odds Last Figh +191 Loss to Christos Giagos
China Top Team Fighter Training Camp Sanford MMA, formerly at Blackzillians

Fight Analysis and Betting Pick

Sean has racked up three submission losses inside the UFC, and he’s hoping that his time at Sanford MMA will help him develop some level of submission defense.

Meanwhile, Shayilan Nuerdanbieke has four career submission wins over 26 fights. His first UFC appearance was lackluster, but I think it’s likely that Sean’s 53% takedown defense comes into play. Nuerdanbieke shoots for multiple takedowns per round, and unless we see a big improvement in Sean’s takedown defense, that will be the story of the fight.

I pick Shayilan Nuerdanbieke at +220

Luana Pinheiro vs Sam Hughes

In the most lopsided fight of the night, Sam Hughes looks for her first UFC win over undefeated in the UFC Luana Pinheiro. The opening odds showed Sam at +240, but she’s only become a greater underdog as time goes on.

Tale of the Tape for Pinheiro vs Hughes

Luana Pinheiro Sam Hughes
-410 Odds +310
29 Age 29
5’2″ Height 5’5″
62″ Orthodox Reach/Stance 64″ Orthodox
9-1 Record 5-3
0/1 Submissions/TKO in UFC and Strikeforce 0/0
O -130 Over/Under 2½ Rounds Prop Bet U +100
-153 DQ Win over Randa Markos Odds Last Figh +335 Loss to Loma Lookboomee
Nova Uniao, UFC Performance Institute Fighter Training Camp Catalyst MMA

Fight Analysis and Betting Pick

Pinheiro still pays out at $0.24 per dollar wagered despite taking out two UFC level fighters in her first two appearances. She knocked out Stephanie Fausto with just ten significant strikes in the first round.

Sam Hughes is a striker who has already been matched up with Loma Lookboonmee and Tecia Torres. She was beaten standing and on the ground by both fighters. It doesn’t feel like Luana, a fighter on a finishing streak, is the right fight for her.

I doubt Sam will shock us. She’s one of the top fighters at her camp and made no efforts to cross-train over the last six months.

Our pick is Luana Pinheiro at -410

UFC Vegas 43 Wrap Up

If you’d like to learn more about MMA betting, start here. Leave a comment or suggestion below along with your email to receive betting picks and our top gambling offers on the most popular sportsbooks!

Across this card, note how UFC matches fighters who are high-quality wrestlers. It appears they are doing what they can to ensure excitement over who would win in a ranked division. Remember the goal is to create exciting bouts when betting the Over/Under props.

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Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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