The UFC is back for another year of fun-loving fights as well as some devastating defeats. We know there will be several of those if we are making plays every week. It is going to happen.
The type of defeat that either puts us on tilt or we are sent into a minor depression is when you risk a lot of a favorite you are almost positive will win and they fall short. This is the fight game and it only takes one shot to put someone away. A forearm under the throat, a kick to the neck, or your guy just gasses. That is usually what happens to me if I’m investing a lot into a favorite. My side is the A-side and usually more skilled but hard work beats talent when talent doesn’t work hard
Y’all remember that one.
There are a few favorites on this card with betting odds over the (-220) mark where I like to draw the line for a straight bet. We can, of course, win most of our bets at these higher lines if we do our homework.
The problem is that in order to make money, WE HAVE TO win most of the time. I feel pretty confident in Santiago Ponzinibbio this weekend to defeat Li Jingliang but his betting odds are (-270) at best.
We have to win 3 out of 4 times just to barely break even! We net 11.00 dollars and risked 400.00. Cool story, bro. Now do it again and again without faltering. That is less than a 3% return on your investment and nowhere close to enough to make money in the long run.
Your ROI is now up to 8% and that is JUST enough to make money long-term but it will be minimal until your bankroll has multiplied its worth 10 times over.
And good luck with getting there before you’re 100.
Why am I pointing this stuff out that you probably already know? Well, despite COVID restrictions across the globe, I’m making the recommendation that we throw a party, a parlay party that is.
- (-122) 2-leg parlay winner
- (+157) 3-leg parlay winner
- (+220) 2-leg parlay winner
- (+433) 3-leg parlay winner
Hey, we would have crushed even more if Taila Santos would have fought Montana de La Rosa. We saw her dominate Gillian Robertson so all signs point to her winning comfortably over Montana.
That’s alright, though. I am happy with finishing the year not only because we finished off the year with so many straight bet wins but also crushed our last two weeks of parlays that surely shot up your bankroll.
We can jump right into it. The betting odds are provided by BetOnline.AG. Let’s party!
#1. Austin Lingo (-220) and Santiago Ponzinibbio (-290): -105
We are getting nearly even money here on these two and I feel pretty good about both guys.
— Austin Lingo (@austinlingo) January 12, 2021
The word coming out of Jacob Kilburn’s camp or at least those around it is that he is not UFC level at all and if you look at his performances when he faces a higher level of competition, you can see why.
The styles don’t match up in our favor with Lingo and Kilburn as Austin isn’t the best wrestler and striking is the strength of Jacob but I think there will be a skill discrepancy and by the looks of the weigh in, there is a size difference as well.
Austin is also coming from an excellent camp at Fortis MMA and he took the fight against Yousuff Zalal this year on short notice. That was his only loss and I think the organization is giving him a slight back scratch with Kilburn.
If Austin Lingo looks great here which I think he will, then we should possibly fade him in his next bout when he almost has to get a step up in competition. He will be overvalued coming off of a win that might not be worth that much against a guy who probably shouldn’t be in the UFC.
We are getting ahead of ourselves a bit but it is very important that we ACTIVELY seek out these opportunities. I have the tendency to be passive sometimes and that works well for me winning bets because I do a decent job of staying away from the losers.
There are fights just about every week so it can be difficult to look ahead but if we want to gain the highest amount and highest quality of edges on the sportsbooks, we have to outwork them, out think them, and most of all, get ahead of them.
Ponz is back and I know Li Jingliang is a tough guy with great size and athleticism for the 170-pound weight class but to me, he isn’t on the level of a Santiago Ponzinibbio. I am slightly concerned that he may be a little rusty having taken a couple years away from fighting ot heal up.
Maradona forever 🇦🇷 @SPonzinibbioMMA honored his countryman at today's weigh-in.
— UFC (@ufc) January 15, 2021
The Argentine Dagger was the best version of himself in his last fight before hiatus when he put away Neil Magny who hasn’t lost since. He can still make a run at the world title and I expect an even better Santiago Ponzinibbio this Saturday on Fight Island.
#2. Ramazan Emeev + Austin Lingo + Santiago Ponzinibbio: +171
This is a good play here I think. Honestly, I feel just as confident in Ramazan as I do Ponz but Emeev is so one dimensional and he makes no secret as to what he wants to do to people.
Clinch and clinch some more and then get a takedown and barely throw any strikes at all. I think the referee in Ramazan’s fight with David Zawada will play a big role.
— David Zawada (@DavidZawada) January 11, 2021
If he allows the Russian to hold David up against the Octagon for most of the round, then Emmev will likely cruise to a unanimous decision victory.
If the ref is wise to Ram’s ways, then he might break them up after just 60-90 seconds up against the side of the Octagon. Zawada does have the chance to pull off a crazy submission but Emeev is as smart as his fights are boring and that is saying quite a bit.
Ram will clinch as needed and hopefully go for the takedown with just seconds left in the particular round so the likelihood of him getting caught in a submission falls off the table like a Mariano Rivera cut fastball.
#3 Ram Emeev + Santiago Ponz + Austin Lingo + Over 1.5 Todorovic/Soriano: +340
This isn’t exactly Joe Rogan’s hot yoga during Sober October but it is a bit of a stretch. Bet accordingly. Speaking of Sober October, did anyone see Tom Segura’s fall?
No, it isn’t another me too thing from one of Joe’s buddies. He is a happy and loyal married man who shares a podcast with his wife. Tom took a fall and it was not pretty, guys.
That first pop or should I say explosion that you hear is his patellar tendon rupturing. If that wasn’t enough, he tried to catch himself with his arm and broke his humerus. Fortunately, his friend successfully put it back into place for him immediately but whew.
That was a gnarly fall. Digressing but I don’t think a lot of people heard about this over
Christmas break. It goes to show that age is more than a number and that this white man in particular literally can’t jump. He tried and his body almost fell apart completely.
Back to this parlay. I have probably spent more time breaking down the Dusko Todorovic vs Punahele Soriano fight more than any other. Of course, the main event is more intriguing but I think I have a good read on it.
Calvin is a better boxer with more reach and Max’s biggest advantages he has over his opponents are those two attributes. The cardio of Kattar will be the X-factor here. Can he sustain a frantic Holloway-Esque pace for a potential 25-minute war?
The goal? @CalvinKattar and the New England Cartel want to bring belts back to Boston 🏆
— UFC (@ufc) January 14, 2021
The fight with Dusko and Punahele was going to be a slam dunk for me because as soon as I saw it, I jumped and while I don’t regret my pick…wait did I just say slam dunk? RIP Tom Segura, my apologies.
Punahele has a strong wrestling background unlike some of his Hawaiin mixed martial arts brothers and that could make a difference in this fight. If he just tries to sprawl and brawl with the well rounded Serbian star, I think Dusko will find a way to win.
If Punahele comes out aggressive and puts the man on his back, then we have ourselves a fight, ladies and gentlemen.
Story Time… 📖 Learn why @Puna185 is Saturday's one to watch!
— UFC (@ufc) January 13, 2021
I’m on Dusko and we already made that pick and play but looking at the round total for two undefeated fighters and at just 1.5 rounds, we can get the over for (-160).
I think that is great. It is the same price as Dusko and these two have yet to show any durability issues. They are also well matched. I can’t see either man getting the other out of there quicker than they did either of their 2 previous opponents.
Dusko will be safe in the clinch and he is a smart fighter who will likely use that to his advantage, especially early on in the fight against a power puncher who has only made it out of the first round one time in his career.
It was an impressive win over Pickett but I think these two could very well go the distance. The betting odds for that are even more enticing, of course, but we have enough with this round total to double our parlay payout.
There you have it, guys. It is going to be hard to keep our undefeated streak going on parlays for a third consecutive event but that’s alright. We have some great odds not only on the parlays but on each of the legs by themselves as well.
As for our other picks, you guys can play with the pairings of the various legs if you like. I didn’t realize it but the over 1.5 here is likely our anchor. It is going to take some extraordinary efforts, though, to spoil our party.
- Ponzinibbio is one of the best strikers in the UFC and a top 10 if not 5 Welterweight right now. If he looks great against Li Jingliang, then I can see him getting a big step up in competition sooner than later.
- Austin Lingo took one for the team against Yousuff Zalal on short notice and that is his only career loss. The Fortis MMA trained killer looks to impose his will on the undersized and less experienced Tennessee native, Jacob Kilburn.
- And Ramazan Emeev…how can we forget about this guy? I had to invite him to the parlay party because if we didn’t, you would likely fall asleep during his “fight” and then likely miss Imavov vs Hawes headlining the prelims.
That is a fight you don’t want to miss. Get your bets in now and enjoy the party on Saturday. There will be refreshments in the living room and feel free to add something to the punch!