UFC on ESPN 33 Betting Odds, Preview and Predictions

UFC Fight Night March 26 Red Background

Our UFC on ESPN 33 odds and predictions covers all thirteen fights, a short synopsis of each bout, and a look at betting picks and top MMA prop bets for each fight.
We’ve included our parlay bets for Fiorot and Slavoclaus, and why we selected both bouts. For more UFC betting strategy, start with our MMA Guide.

UFC on ESPN 33 Odds for Main Event: Curtis Blaydes vs Chris Daukaus 

Our main event features the rising star Daukaus against yet another high performing heavyweight in Blaydes. Curtis Blaydes has lost to Ngannou twice, coming in as the favorite in both fights, -150 and -240. He lost both times. Oddsmakers and betting lines love Blaydes. He’s been the favorite from opening to close in all four of his UFC losses and every UFC fight he’s had dating back to 2016. 
Daukaus was the favorite at -135 in his loss to Lewis. He was the underdog in his loss to Rodrigo Nascimento in his UFC debut at +200, but kept the favorite status over the next three fights including the loss to Lewis. 
Duakaus is a sprawl and brawl fighter with knockout power, but I wouldn’t call him a kickboxer. Blaydes is a similar story, relying on his wrestling against the best strikers and his power against aging stars like Junior Dos Santos and Alistar Overeem. 

Tale of the Tape for Blaydes vs Daukaus 

Fighter Curtis ‘Razor’ Blaydes  Chris Daukaus 
Age 31 32
Height 6’4’’ 6’3’’
Reach/Stance 80’’ Orthodox 76’’, Orthodox 
Record 15-3, (1 NC) 12-4
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/5 0/4
Fighter Training Camp Elevation Fight Team Martinez BJJ
Weigh in For Last Fight  265 250
Average Takedowns per 15 Minutes  6.67 0.0
Takedown Defensive Percentage 33% 100%

Daukaus is the smaller fighter in nearly every category. One of Blaydes advantages is how often he dwarfs the other heavyweights. Fighters like Abdurakhimov, who have an average weight of 235, perform terribly against Blaydes in terms of grappling. Daukaus gave up fifteen pounds, as did Volkov, Rozenstruik, and Dos Santos. These smaller fighters end up tossed around by Blaydes or simply walked through. The only men to beat Blaydes, Lewis and Ngannou, are 260 pounds or more, cutting to make the division weight. 

Fight Camps for Daukaus vs Blaydes

Daukaus is still at his home gym, Martinez BJJ. While Martinez BJJ isn’t filled with slouches, it has few top tier fighters and sparring partners. There are no world class conditioning coaches or even former UFC athletes at the gym. Overall, this is a choice of heart and hometown for Daukaus, not one centered on moving his MMA game forward. 

Daukaus’ physique looks less impressive than usual and comes in far under Blaydes weight.
Blaydes is at Elevation alongside Nate Marquart and other UFC notables. Magny, Dober, Gaethjie and a dozen other top tier MMA athletes are working at Elevation. Blaydes should receive an advantage in UFC on ESPN 33 betting odds given his training environment. 

Betting Odds for Daukaus vs Blaydes

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Chris Daukaus Money Line +310
Curtis Blaydes Money Line -410
Over 1 ½ Rounds -205
Under 1 ½ Rounds  +165
Goes the Distance ‘No’ -280
Blaydes by Points  +250
Blaydes by TKO -110
Daukaus by TKO +475
Daukaus by Submission +1200
Daukaus in Round 1  +600
Blaydes in Round 1 by TKO  +450
Win Inside Distance – Goes Distance = No Action: Blaydes -325
Win Inside Distance – Goes Distance = No Action: Daukaus  +250
Goes to Decision  +220

Blaydes opened as a -300, dropping over 100 points toward closing. Daukaus gained 70 from +250 to +320, and his prop bets aren’t much better. His moneyline is a better payout than many of his finishing props, indicating some of the bets are off balance due to the favor of bettors, oddsmakers and real time line movement. These UFC on ESPN 33 betting odds see a Blaydes finish, with one of the top bets on the ticket being a Blaydes TKO at -110. 

UFC Prop Betting Predictions

I would stay away from the Over prop, given that all five of Daukaus’ fights in the UFC have been finishes, win or lose. Blaydes has finished three of his last five fights, and he’s been knocked out twice by Ngannou.I don’t think Daukaus has that kind of power, but at least we know it’s possible for Blaydes to be put away. 
If Blaydes decides to employ a wrestling centered win, it usually ends in a decision. I think our outcome relies heavily on which Curtis Blaydes shows up, the wrestling focused fighter or the kickboxer. 

UFC on ESPN 33 Fight Prediction 

Against fighters with quality takedown defense, Blaydes is happy to win decisions in stand up battles. In his last fight with Rozenstruik, he was patient and looked to use takedown opportunities to win rounds rather than constantly seeking the finish. 

Daukaus’ UFC Performances

Of the four fighters Daukaus has defeated, Oleinik has the best average takedowns at 2.16. I think Blaydes can be the first fighter to get the takedown if he wants it. Nascimento is the largest opponent Daukaus has beaten at 246, twenty pounds under the weight of Blaydes, who cuts weight to make the 265 heavyweight limit. The difference in size will be staggering, as it usually is in Blaydes fights. 

Daukaus’ chin isn’t in question after one first round knockout to Lewis, but it should be factored in that all of Daukaus’ fights have been under finishes win or lose. Blaydes ability to fight to the decision when the situation calls for it is something up and coming fighters like Daukaus must develop inside the cage. 

UFC on ESPN 33 Prediction

Daukaus would be the smallest man to beat Blaydes. While he’s defeated three heavyweights in a row, he hasn’t put his time in against mid level fighters and former champions the way Blaydes has. Blaydes kickboxing and wrestling is at a higher level. While I want to bet the Under, I see Blaydes evolving into a fighter that wants to win more than he wants to finish. Our UFC  on ESPN 33 betting pick is Curtis Blaydes at -410. 

UFC on ESPN 33 Odds for Main Card

We’re breaking down in detail your betting options for every fight on the main card, coupled with an expert MMA breakdown that should clear up any confusion about our selections and why you should pick these bets. 
Here’s an overview of all five UFC on ESPN 33 predictions: 

  • Joanne Wood +3.5 Points Spread at -190
  • Askar Askarov Money Line at -365
  • Matt Brown Money Line at -105
  • Ilir Latifi Money Line at -205
  • Viacheslav Borschev Money Line at -146


Joanne Wood vs Alexa Grasso

Our co-main event features two flyweights known for high striking volumes and exciting fights. Grasso has been the favorite since her 2018 bout with Suarez at +450, a fight she lost by first round submission.
Wood was a +300 underdog in her loss to Santos in November 2021. Her mild underdog status isn’t surprising, she’s lost her last two and has gone 2-5 over her last seven fights. Wood’s best wins involve high punch volumes, racking up 109 over Seo Hee Ham, 115 over Valerie Letourneau and 148 over Jessica in her most recent win. She lost as the favorite to fighters like Lauren Murphy at -132, and Jennifer Maia at -189. During her 14 fight UFC career, she has won as the underdog twice, over Valerie Letourneau at +132 and Lipski at +215. 

Tale of the Tape for Grasso vs Wood

Fighter Alexa Grasso Joanne ‘Jojo’ Wood 
Age 28 36
Height 5’5’’ 5’6’’
Reach/Stance 66’’ Orthodox  65’’ Orthodox 
Record 13-3 15-7
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/0 1/1
Fighter Training Camp Lobo Gym, UFC Performance Institute Syndicate 
Losses via Sub/TKO in UFC 1/0 4/0

Grasso is younger by eight years, which in women’s fighting seems to offer durability but not overall power. She’s finished no fights at the UFC level, and has never knocked an opponent down. All three of her losses have been inside of the UFC: Herrig at -350, Esparza at -145, and Suarez at +450. These losses are all names that you might recognize. At #11, I believe Grasso is underrated and overlooked. 
All seven of Joanne’s losses have come inside the UFC as well. Her four submission losses were primarily before her move to Syndicate Martial Arts full time in late 2020. Her new gym offers her a training advantage over Grasso, whose Lobo Gym boasts no other UFC or Bellator level fighters. Grasso is a purple belt in BJJ and it’s unlikely she’ll win via submission over the increasingly crafty Wood. 

UFC Fight Night Betting Odds

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Joanne WoodMoney Line +199
Alexa Grasso Money Line -234
Over 2 ½ Rounds -335
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +260
Grasso by Points -120
Wood by Points +300
Wood by Submission +800
Grasso -3.5 Points +155
Wood +3.5 Points -190
Fight Goes to Decision -280

Grasso has become the stronger favorite as we get closer to fight night. Notice how close the point spread is, with the Wood +3.5 being a better bet than the Grasso -3.5 bet. This indicates a low likelihood of a finish, and the judges seeing a close decision. 
Wood is also more likely to finish, as Grasso is yet to get her first TKO or submission in the UFC. 

UFC Prop Betting Predictions

The Over is a solid favorite for a reason, but I am skeptical of Grasso’s submission defense. Bet’s like fight goes to decision show the right odds for a UFC on ESPN 33 prediction, but for the lower return I’m not convinced that Wood can’t finish this thing.  

UFC on ESPN 33 Fight Prediction 

Grasso will occasionally get into a firefight that puts up high punch volumes. She rarely scores the takedown, and her last actual takedown was in 2016 over Heather Clark. Her plan is always to outwork the other fighter and win the submission if they achieve a takedown. 
Wood was robbed against Lauren Murphy, landing 123 strikes to Murphey’s 80. 
Her armbar loss to Maia will be part of Grasso’s game plan- look for guard finishes off bottom position. However, Wood’s continued involvement at Syndicate will make it so that she’s better prepared for BJJ, especially coming from fighters who haven’t achieved UFC level submission skills (Jennifer Maia is a BJJ black belt.)  
I think we’ll see a high striking volume and occasional takedown from Wood, and Grasso will simply be forced to keep the pace. Wood has a higher sticking volume and higher accuracy. I would say that Grasso’s only advantage is her striking defense, simply due to her having fought less total UFC level opponents. 
Our betting pick is the prop bet upset, Joanne Wood at +3.5 points at -190 (Joanne Calderwood on some sites,) a bet that covers a Wood submission or a narrow Grasso decision win. 

Askar Askarov vs Kai Kara-France

Undefeated Askarov is back, facing off with kickboxing centered Kara-France. This is as close to a striker versus grappler match up as we’ll get at UFC on ESPN 33. 
Askarov is the favorite, and has been against three of his four UFC opponents. His +175 underdog win over Leandro Pantoja solidified that he’s the real deal, and can manage his takedown centered game against knockout power. He opened as the underdog against Benavidez, but closed as the -129 favorite in his last fight in March of 2021. 
Kara-France has had a rocky rise to power. His last two bouts were KO finishes, a +130 win over Garbrandt and -132 over Bontorin. 

Tale of the Tape for Askarov vs Kara-France

Fighter Askar ‘The Bullet’ Askarov ‘Don’t Blink’ Kai Kara-France
Age 29 29
Height 5’6’’ 5’4’’
Reach/Stance 67’’ Orthodox  69’’ Orthodox 
Record 14-0-1 23-9-1
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/0 0/2
Fighter Training Camp Fighting Eagles, Berkut FC  City Kickboxing 

Kai has only lost two bouts in the UFC, his -200 bout with Brandon Royval and -160 to Brandon Moreno. This is his second fight as the underdog in the UFC. France’s only two finishes have been his last two fights. Garbrandt has only won one of his last six fights, and Bontorin won his first three UFC bouts against entry level opponent’s but has lost the next four. 
I believe Kara-France is overrated. His #6 position in the division is specific to his win over Garbrandt and Bontorin. His other four UFC performances are all against fighters outside the top fifteen,  and he was out-struck in his fight with Paiva. 
Askarov’s wins over three fighters in the top fifteen (Benavidez is retired, but was top fifteen at the time) put him in the top five quickly. He was knocked down in his tie with Moreno, which gives Kara-France fans hope of another knockout finish. 
Askarov’s Fighting Eagels includes fighters like Muslim Salikhov, strikers with intense accuracy and knockout power. I believe that Berut/Fighting Eagle fighters can emulate the striking of Kara-France, but Askarov’s takedown work will be tough to replicate. 
The UFC on ESPN 33 odds reflect Askarov’s affiliation advantage in grappling and his overall performances in the UFC. For either fighter, this will be one of the top wins of their career. 

UFC Fight Night Betting Odds

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Kai Kara-France Money Line +290
Askar Askarov Money Line -365
Over 2 ½ Rounds -220
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +180
Goes the Distance ‘Yes’ -190
Goes the Distance ‘No’ +155

Askar opened at -200, peaking at -400, while France opened at +170. Both fighters have seen major line movement. There are few round bets for this fight because most analysts see this the same way- an Askarov decision win or a Kara-France flash TKO. There is little room for other outcomes. 

UFC Prop Betting Predictions

Betting the Over is a bet for Askarov, and betting the under is a bet for Kara-France. Still, something tells me that with Kara-France’s susceptibility to submission work that Askarov may see his first UFC finish. The grapplers Kara-France faced weren’t at Askarov’s level, and I think we’ll see more takedowns than Kara-France has given up in all his UFC fights to date combined. More ground time means a greater chance of submission finishes. 

UFC on ESPN 33 Fight Prediction for Askarov vs Kara-France 

I think the Askarov takedown of Kara-France is inevitable. He gave up takedowns to Bontorin and Rosa, both fighters with far less grappling talent than Askarov. Kara-France’s loss to Moreno showed us that his striking is less than the former champions, and Askarov survived that fight, avoiding most of the damage. Kara-France has several early fight knockouts, but against fighters like Tyson Name and Mark de La Rosa, needed eighty to ninety strikes to win the bout. 
Our betting pick is Askar Askarov money line bet at -365, who should win via a grinding decision.

Matt Brown vs Bryan Barberena 

Brown has become one of the all time fan favorites. He’s gone 2-2 over the last three years since being re-signed in 2019. He upset Dhiego Lima at +180 in his last showing, and lost to Condit and Baeza as the underdog in the two fights prior. This is Brown’s eighth fight for the UFC welterweight division. 

Barberena has been with the UFC since 2014, but hasn’t been as active as Brown. He is 7-6 for the UFC overall, but those losses are all to quality opponents in the 170 pound division. 

Tale of the Tape for Brown vs Barberena 

Fighter Matt ‘The Immortal’ Brown Bryan ‘Bam Bam’ Barberena 
Age 41 32
Height 6’0’’ 6’0’’
Reach/Stance 75’’ Orthodox  72’’ Southpaw
Record 25-18 16-8
Submissions/TKO in UFC 2/12 1/3
Fighter Training Camp Immortal Martial Arts Gym-O

Matt is living up to his name as one of the oldest fighters on the welterweight roster. Clearly, Brown brings fantastic finishing power to the cage. Barberena’s last two wins haven’t been easy. The last six fights Barberena has been in were wars, and he shows few signs of slowing down. Meanwhile, Brown has had a series of short fights over his last five, with neither fighter landing over 40 strikes total before the bouts end. 
Bam Bam has an advantage in the training environment. Matt has created his own gym and it’s still in the proving stage. They’ve gathered AJ Dobson, Myles Robinson and other notables, but have less than a half dozen high level professionals. Barberena is a Gym-O, alongside John Salter and Chris Honeycutt. These fighters have struggled lately. The whole Gym-O team including Kish, Solecki, Holtzman and Salter are all coming off recent losses. 

UFC on ESPN 33 Odds

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Bryan Barberena Money Line -115
Matt BrownMoney Line -105
Over 2 ½ Rounds +120
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -150
Goes the Distance ‘no’  -175
Brown by TKO +175
Barberena by Points +250
Matt Brown in Round 1  +300
Win Inside Distance – Goes Distance = No Action: Matt Brown -175
Win Inside Distance – Goes Distance = No Actio: Bryan Barberena  +145

This is easily the closest fight on the card. The opening odds had Barberena as the underdog +130, but we’ve moved to near even toward betting closing. Bet’s like Brown by TKO are tempting for fans, but Barberena was able to survive three rounds with Vicente Luque before he was knocked out, and an aging Brown may not bring enough power to pull off the fight ender. 

UFC Prop Betting Predictions

Betting the Under or going the distance ‘no’ props are two of the top prop bets, but I don’t like them for this fight. Barberena has developed a style that’s seen three decisions over the last three fights. While Matt Brown doesn’t center takedowns as part of his strategy, he’s seen decisions with fighters like Condit and Stephen Thompson with wrestling heavy gameplans. The fight finishing is a good bet, but not a fool proof one. 

UFC on ESPN 33 Fight Prediction for Brown vs Barberena 

Barberena has looked better over his last five fights, specifically in his bout with Vicente Luque, a bout he nearly won against a top five welterweight. His fight with weeks showed us weaknesses that a finisher like Brown can take advantage of. Many of Barberena’s best wins are over fighters with lower finishing percentages, and his last two wins were over debuting UFC fighters with no other wins. 
Brown is a fantastic gatekeeper, and at 41 he’ll be able to knock out plenty of the right welterweights with low striking defensive percentages, like Barberena’s 45%. 
Our betting pick is Matt Brown money line at -105.  

Ilir Latifi vs Aleksei Oleinik 

Latifi has been around since 2013, losing his debut to Gegard Mousasi. He’s 3-3 over his last six and was the underdog in his last three wins ranging from +125 to +155. Oleinik is 2-5 over his last seven fights, winning only against Wedum as a +280 and Greene as a +103. Both fighters are consummate underdogs. Oleinik hasn’t been the favorite since 2017 over Viktor Pesta. Other than this fight, Latifi was the favorite in a 2018 loss to Corey Anderson and several fights prior to 2016. 

Tale of the Tape for Latifi vs Oleinik

Fighter Ilir ‘The Sledgehammer’ Latifi Aleksei ‘The Boa Constrictor’ Oleinik 
Age 38 44
Height 5’10’’ 6’2’’
Reach/Stance 73’’ Orthodox  80’’ Orthodox 
Record 16-8, 1 NC  59-16-1
Submissions/TKO in UFC 2/3 6/1
Fighter Training Camp Allstars Training, ATT, Malmo Tigers, Various ATT and K-Dojo Warrior
UFC Losses via Sub/TKO 0/3 0/5
Last Weigh in 230 240
Takedown Defense  100% 33%
Takedown Accuracy  34% 46%

Ilir is a small heavyweight, fighting at light heavy and even middleweight at various points in his career. His time at Glory kickboxing gives him a perceived advantage in the striking, especially considering five of the six Oleinik UFC losses were TKO finishes. However, Oleinik has a seven inch reach advantage, one that’s been stifling to many strikers in the division. 
Oleinik’s best wins are fast takedown and submission fights, and many of his victory conditions are centered around his ability to consistently get the takedown. Given that Ilir has a 100% takedown defense, they should have no problem avoiding the groundwork altogether and turning this into a kickboxing and clench fighting match up. 

UFC Fight Night Betting Odds

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Ilir Latifi Money Line -205
Aleksei Oleinik Money Line +175
Over 1 ½ Rounds -170
Under 1 ½ Rounds  +140
Goes the Distance ‘Yes’ +150
Goes the Distance ‘No’ -180
Oleinik by Submission  +350
Latifi by TKO  +170
Latifi by Points  +235
Oleinik in Round 1  +500
Latifi inside the Distance  +145

Money line odds have held close since opening, with fans of Oleinik happily piling onto his underdog status. This fight comes down to an Oleinik submission and a Latifi decision or TKO win. Oleinik hasn’t won a fight over a quality kickboxer since Mark Hunt in 2018, but Hunt isn’t exactly a wrestler.

UFC Prop Betting Predictions

The under feels right, but I’m skeptical of it. Oleinik could only score one takedown over Spivak and it ended up going the distance, with Serghei happy to pick Oleinik apart for a narrow win. Latifi managed to fight several opponent’s to grinding decisions over the past ten fights, mostly involving wrestling based gameplans. I’m praying to the gods of MMA that Latifi is smart enough not to shoot on Oleinik.  

UFC on ESPN 33 Fight Prediction for Latifi vs Oleinik

Latifi has multiple ways to win, and knockout power that we haven’t gotten to see since he has come up in the ranks. Against an aging Oleinik, I could see Latifi playing a sprawl and brawl fight game that puts Oleinik on the back foot the whole fight, even forcing him to pull guard. Latifi can fight smart to the easy win. Our UFC on ESPN 33 prediction in Ilir Latifi’s money line at -205.  

60 wins deep across all promotions. A stunning acheivment.

Marc Diakiese vs Viacheslav Borshchev

Diakiese is the underdog in this match up, going 2-5 over his last seven in the UFC. He was the favorite in his last two bouts, losing to Alves and Fiziev at -190 and -225. His upset win over Duffy was his last time as the underdog at +165. Diakiese is a wrestler who’s only lost via submission in the UFC. He’s shown one punch knockout power, like in the fight with Teemu Packalen, but primarily needs the takedown to win fights. 
Borshchev is a champion kickboxer turned fighter who upset undefeated Chris Duncan with a TKO in his DWCS appearance. Borshchev was the favorite over Dakota Bush at -188, though he opened at +125. 

Tale of the Tape for Diakiese vs Borshchev

Fighter Marc ‘Bonecrusher’ Diakiese  Viacheslav ‘Slava Claus’ Borschev
Age 29 30
Height 5’10’’ 5’11’’
Reach/Stance 73’’ Orthodox 69’’ Orthodox 
Record 14-5 6-1
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/2 0/2
Fighter Training Camp American Top Team  Uriah Faber, Alpha Male
Takedown Accuracy/Defense 35%/62% 0/33%

Borshchev’s coaches have told us that he has underrated grappling, and this has shown in his first two wins. Duncan only received one minute of control off two takedowns, and Bush gained 1:30 off his two takedowns. Diakese has similar takedown quality to Bush and Duncan, so the real question is, how is his grappling control? 
Taking down Borschev without scoring control points and keeping him down doesn’t do you much good. In his last two wins, Diakiese racked up four and five minutes of control time off three and four takedowns, indicating a better control time per takedown than Borschev’s opponents.
Both fighters fight out of top ranked teams, and both have finishing power with a stand up knockout power advantage going to Borschev. 

UFC Fight Night Betting Odds

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Marc Diakiese Money Line +126
Viacheslav Borschev Money Line -146
Over 2 ½ Rounds +130
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -160
Goes the Distance ‘Yes’ +155
Goes the Distance ‘No’ -190
Borshchev by Points  +350
Borshchev by TKO  +120
Diakiese by Points  +300
Borshchev in Round 1  +250
Borshchev -3.5 Points +110
Marc Diakiese +3.5 Points -140 
Borshchev inside the Distance +100

The opening odds were within ten points of closing for both fighters. Borschev has an advantage in finishing odds, specifically round calling and TKO wins by a +200 point margin. The points spread puts Mark as the favorite at -140, indicating a possibility of a close decision win for Borshchev. 

UFC Prop Betting Predictions

With Diakiese’s control time, I’m more skeptical of the Under 2 ½ Rounds than I was in other Borshchev bouts. I think this fight could easily go the distance. My top prop bet is the Borshchev -3.5 points spread, and I would place lower bets if you’re considering the under prop bets, or even Borshchev inside the distance. 

UFC on ESPN 33 Fight Prediction for Diakiese vs Borshchev 

Borshchev has shown striking at a level Diakiese hasn’t ever faced. I expect a rushing pace from Diakese, similar to the Dan Hooker fight. In the Fiziev fight, Diakiese seemed unable to get the takedown in the face of threatening knockout power. Borshchev will face the toughest challenge of his career in Diakiese, but given his team, kickboxing, and dedication to improved grappling, our betting pick is the Borshchev money line at -146.

UFC on ESPN 33 Betting Odds for Prelims 

The first six fights on the card include some of our top parlay picks.
Here’s an overview of all six prelim UFC on ESPN 33 predictions: 

  • Griffon Money Line at +195
  • Manon Fiorot Money Line at -415
  • Karol Rosa Money Line at -200
  • Danaa Money Line at -130
  • Dvorak Money Line at -1176
  • Under 1 1/2 Rounds for Khizriev vs Tiuliulin
  • Over 2 1/2 Rounds for Souza vs Saldana


Joanne Wood vs Alexa Grasso

UFC on ESPN 33 Predictions: Neil Magny vs Max Griffin 

Despite being #9 in the Welterweight division, Magny is fighting at the top of the prelim bouts. Magny has lost two of his last six fights, a -145 loss to Chiesa and a +187 loss to Ponzinibbio. Griffin is on a three fight winning streak after fumbling four of five in 2018-2020. Griffin was the favorite over Carlos Condit in his last win, and has been the favorite in all bouts since his win over Zelim Imadaev. 

UFC Fight Night Betting Odds

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Griffin Money Line +195
Magny Money Line -230
Over 2 ½ Rounds -220
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +180

Griffin opened the UFC on ESPN 33 odds as a +130, gaining sixty points as we near the event. Magny peaked at a -303 favorite before settling in at -230. 

UFC Prop Betting Predictions

With all of Magny’s recent wins coming by way of decision, I see a smart fighter who’s KO power may be mostly behind him at 34. Griffin is 36 and has knocked out two of his last three opponents, both are new to the UFC and don’t have the fight IQ of Magny. I see this fight falling into the Over 2 ½ Rounds, but I’m not confident enough to place that bet. 

UFC on ESPN 33 Fight Prediction for Magny vs Griffin 

Magny has this ability to work just harder than his opponent. Two of his last five losses are via knockout, and given that Neal is on a bit of a knockout streak, that should play a factor. Magny does best when he faces fighters that will back up whenever he is striking. Those who sit in the pocket and trade, or move forward into the center of the ring tend to put Magny out. 
I think Griffin has more than a puncher’s chance here. Magny has been crumpled before by this ‘take one, land one’ style of Griffon. 
Our betting pick is Max Griffon money line at +195. Expect the fight to go to whoever takes the center ring early. 

Jennifer Maia vs Manon Fiorot 

Fiorot has been the favorite in her last five matches and is now 3-0 in the UFC. These are her second strongest odds to date, coming second to her win over Jessica Eye at -450. 
Maia has struggled against powerful strikers like Chookagian and Shevchenko. She upset Alexis Davis at +126. This is the second biggest underdog rating of her career, second to her loss to Shevchenko at +1100. 

UFC Fight Night Betting Odds

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Maia Money Line +415
Fiorot Money Line -415
Over 2 ½ Rounds -245
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +195

Fiorot’s three wins in the UFC have been two late second round finishes and one decision. Maia has had only one UFC submission win, indicating the Over/Under isn’t useful given the fighters history. 

UFC on ESPN 33 Fight Prediction for Maia vs Fiorot 

Fiorot is an easy pick and strong favorite. I’ll be paralyzing this fight with the SlavoClaus win later in the card. Our betting pick is the Fiorot Money Line at -415. 

Sara McMann vs Karol Rosa 

Karol Rosa is undefeated in the UFC. McMann started her career with Pro Elite and Invicta as undefeated in 2011-2012 but lost her fifth fight to Rounda Rousey for the first women’s UFC title. 
Rosa has been a favorite ranging from -115 to -590 in her UFC bouts. Sara has been the favorite over her last five fights, despite going 2-3.  

UFC Fight Night Betting Odds

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
McMann Money Line +170
Rosa Money Line -200
Over 2 ½ Rounds -185
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +155

Odds have barely moved since opening. The Over 2 ½ looks like the right bet for Rosa fans, though McMann has lost via submission in three of her last four fights, and in all of her last four losses.

UFC on ESPN 33 Fight Prediction for McMann vs Rosa

Rosa lands strikes at a much higher rate than Mcmann, 7.8 to 2.3. Given the difference in striking pace, the age difference is going to weigh on Sara. At 42, she’s the second oldest fighter on the card. Rosa is going to outwork McMann, who is a legend, but far past her best days. 
Our betting pick is Karol Rosa at -200, a $0.50 payout and another great option for parlay. 

Chris Gutierrez vs Bategrel Danaa

Gutierrez has been the favorite for his last three fights, going to a draw with Durden in 2020, a fight he clearly won. His only loss in the UFC is to Raoni Barcelos at +425. He upset Freitas at +155 in 2019. 
Danaa is the favorite for this fight, losing his first fight to Alatengheili at +100. He won his next three as the favorite, each via TKO ranging from -124 to -200. 

UFC Fight Night Betting Odds

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Gutierrez Money Line +110
Danaa Money Line -130
Over 2 ½ Rounds -140
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +110

If you think Dana will win, the Under prop looks like a good choice. Danaa has finished three fighters with a total of 46 strikes. None of the fighters he finished have done well in the UFC. Still, Gutierrez hasn’t fought anyone with three UFC knockouts in any of his seven UFC appearances. 

UFC on ESPN 33 Fight Prediction for Gutierrez vs Danaa

The power difference between Danaa and Gutierrez is notable, but Gutierrez does have a 62% striking defense. I’m torn on this bout. I’m betting Danaa Money line at -130 but bet lightly, the fight could go either way. 

Matheus Nicolau vs David Dvorak 

Nicolau has been the favorite in his last three fights, and comes in as a slight underdog against Dvorak. Dvorak is 3-0 in the UFC, while Nicolau is 5-1, losing only to Dustin Ortiz via a head kick knockout in the opening minutes. 

UFC Fight Night Betting Odds

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Nicolau Money Line -104
Dvorak Money Line -116
Over 2 ½ Rounds -225
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +185

With both fighters having a mix of sudden finishes and a high striking count, I don’t think the Over is a useful bet, despite the majority of their UFC wins coming in the Over. 

These fighters can finish, and I’m not betting the over given the forward-moving aggression of Nicolau.
Nicolau has dropped as low as +100 on some betting sites. 

UFC on ESPN 33 Fight Prediction for Nicolau vs Dvorak 

Our betting pick is David Dvorak money line at -1176 via a narrow win or sudden knockdown leading to a submission victory. Bet lightly, this is another fight with too high a degree of competition. 

Aliaskhab Khizriev vs Denis Tiuliulin 

Tiuliulin is a last minute replacement for Magomedov and a first time UFC fighter. He’s 10-5 in his MMA career and is debuting against an undefeated fighter. Khizriev was the favorite in his DWCS win at -400, and comes in as a very strong favorite. 

UFC Fight Night Betting Odds

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Khizriev Money Line -1100
Tiuliulin Money Line +775
Over 1 ½ Rounds +165
Under 1 ½ Rounds  -195

Khizriev peaked at -1100, but has dropped to -715 on other sports books. The under is the favorite in props, with Tiuliulin losing twice via submission in his career. 

UFC on ESPN 33 Fight Prediction for Khizriev vs Tuiluilin

Khizriev will exploit any submission weaknesses early, and it’s unclear if Tiuliulin has the submission game capable of defending even outside the first round. We’ll take a slight risk here and predict the Under 1 ½ Rounds prop at -195. Take Khizriev as a sure thing on any parlay plays.

Luis Saldana vs Bruno Souza 

Saldana is coming off his first UFC loss as the favorite at -104. He dominated at DWCS and defeated Jordan Griffin in his debut at -134. He’s now the underdog for the first time in the UFC. Souza was the underdog in his loss to Baghdasaryan at +375, a fight he lost on the feet which no one predicted. He’s a striker with an elusive Karate style. 

UFC Fight Night Betting Odds

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Saldana Money Line +107
Souza Money Line -127
Over 2 ½ Rounds -220
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +180

Saldana’s last two fights were the Over, and Souza is yet to knockout anyone at the UFC level. In LFA he had the occasional knockout but preferred an elusive point fighting style. 

UFC on ESPN 33 Fight Prediction for Souza vs Saldana

Given that both fighters have a high level of striking acumen and have shown solid chins in decision wins, our betting pick is the Over 2 ½ Rounds at -220.

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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