UFC on ESPN 34 Luque vs. Muhammad Betting Odds and Picks

April 16 Luque Vs Muhammad Red UFC Background

The betting lines are open for UFC Fight Night: Luque vs Muhammad, going down on April 16th, 2022 at UFC Apex. We’re posting UFC on ESPN 34 betting odds for 13 fights along with our top predictions and an MMA breakdown of each bout. After reading why we selected each fighter, you may find a good reason to take one of Bovada’s many prop bets available for each bout. Expect a quick review of past UFC betting odds on each fighter, and the important UFC Stats you’ll need to make an educated selection. Advanced bettors are often using past performances and stats to determine their bet, but if you’re ready to build your ticket, here are the picks for all Thirteen fights: 

Main Event Pick:
Vicente Luque (-190)
Co-Main Event Pick:
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev (-130)
Miguel Baeza:
Upset of the Night:
Wu Yanan (+350)
Pat Sabatini
Over 1 ½ Rounds Clark vs Knight:
Pannie Kianzad:
Under 2 ½ Rounds Klose vs Jenkins:
Rafa Garcia:
‘Fight Goes to Decision, No’:
Barnett vs Bunday -475
Parlay Pick:
Jordan Leavitt (+110)
Istela Nunes:
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UFC On ESPN 34 Prediction for Luque vs Muhammad 2

These two fought in 2016, with Luque scoring a sudden first round knockout after only six strikes. The odds were in Luque’s favor, with +105 for Muhammad and -123 for Luque at closing. In their last three wins, Muhammad was the favorite twice, upsetting Stephen Thompson as a +195 underdog. Luque has been the favorite since his loss to Thompson in 2019 as a +100 underdog, down from opening as a -105 underdog. 
Muhammad has upset Thompson, Randy Brown  and Tim Means, but lost to Geoff Neal, Alan Jouban (+125) and Luque, making him 3-3 as the underdog. 

Fighter Vincente ‘The Silent Assassin’ Luque Belal ‘Remember the Name’  Muhammad 
Age 30 33
Height 5’11’’ 5’11’’
Reach/Stance 75’’ Orthodox 72’’ Orthodox 
Record 21-7-1 20-3, 1 NC
Submissions/TKO in UFC 5/8 1/1
Fighter Training Camp Sanford MMA, Various Valle Flow Striking, Various 

Luque has the reach advantage and the UFC level finishing advantage, where Belal is mostly a decision fighter. Muhammad fought four times last year in 2021, and met up with finishers like Stephen Thompson and Takashi Sato, but these fighters pale in comparison to the finishing rates of Luque. In fact, of the fighters Muhammad has defeated, Tim Means has the most UFC finishes at 7, just half of Luques total finishing rate. 

Power like Luque’s is tough to train for, and just because Muhammad doesn’t usually get knocked out, doesn’t mean it can’t happen again. 
Sanford MMA is one of the best places to train for takedown defense, and Valle Flow is one of the best to train for defensive striking, so each man is at the right gym to develop a game plan to negate the other’s offense. 

UFC On ESPN 34 Betting Odds for Luque vs Muhammad 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Luque Money Line -190
Muhammad Money Line +150
Over 2 ½ Rounds -200
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +150
Over 3 ½ Rounds  -130
Under 3 ½ Rounds  EVEN
Under 4 ½ Rounds  -125
Will the fight go the Distance, Yes EVEN
Will the fight go the Distance, No -130

I’m surprised that Luque isn’t a stronger favorite. Presumably, oddsmakers see Muhammad improving since their first meating. However, Muhammad’s grappling has been key in his victories, and Luque has maintained a 64% takedown defesne and increasingly dangerous submission work, as seen against high level grappler Michael Chiese last August.

UFC on ESPN 34 Prop Betting Predictions

 Luque has finished his last four opponents via knockout or submission, eight of his last ten bouts were finishes, indicating the Under 4 ½ Rounds bet to be worth considering. Belal likes to fight to decisions, but I believe a submission win over Luque may be his only choice. Neither fighter has seen a five round fight, and with the blistering pace of either man, we could see fourth or fifth round finishes due to exhaustion. 
I like ‘Will the Fight Go the Distance, No’ at -130 for fans of Luque, but the odds gap isn’t enough to make us shy away from our front runner pick. 

UFC Fight Night: Luque vs Muhammad Main Event Prediction 

For most fans, the concern will be with the Wonderboy fights. Muhammad won, but Luque lost definitively. This all comes down to fight strategy. Wonderboy has struggled with high level wrestling, including Gilbert Burns and Woodley. Luque was happy to strike for three rounds, believing in his power to end the fight deep in the third. It cost him the win. These fights were also two years apart, and for a 40 year old fighter, that can mean everything. Thompson may have seen the end of his peak performances with a win over Luque and Neal. 
Our betting pick is Vicente Luque, for his power and the threat of catching Muhammad in a submission off his shot attempts. Luque pays out at $53 per $100 wager. 

UFC On ESPN 34 Prediction for Omargadzhiev vs Borralho 

Neither fighter’s betting history extends outside of DWCS. This would be a fight that could happen in five or six years when they’re both contenders. Caio was the underdog in his first DWCS appearance at +125 and a -900 favorite in his second. He was set to fight Jamie Pickett in January but the fight fell through. Gadzhi was a -350 favorite in his DWCS win in November. 

Fighter Gadzhi Omargadzhiev Caio ‘The Natural’ Borralho
Age 29 29
Height 6’1’’ 5’10’’
Reach/Stance 71’’ Switch 75’’ Southpaw
Record 13-0 10-1, 1NC 
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/0 0/1
Fighter Training Camp Golden Team  Fighting Nerds, Various 

Gadzhi is the bigger man with a four inch reach disadvantage. Outside of the UFC he’s faced mostly low level Russian fighters, with five of his thirteen wins over fighters with less than five wins. His last two wins were over 7-0 and 7-1 fighters. 
Caoi’s only loss was back in 2015. He’s looked fantastic over his last five, but has also fought primarily unknowns. 
Golden team is a more tested training environment, with a number of ACA competitors and UFC fighters cross training at this camp. The KSW star 15-0-1 Shamil Musaev is also out of this camp. Fighting Nerds in Brazil have done well on the local level, but fighters like Uyran Carlos stumble when they reach higher levels (two losses in LFA, no wins for a major organization.) Gadzhi has the advantage in training environment. 

UFC On ESPN 34 Betting Odds for Omargadzhiev vs Borralho

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Omargadzhiev Money Line -130
Borralho Money Line +110
Over 2 ½ Rounds -110
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -120
Over 1 ½ Rounds -185
Under 1 ½ Rounds  +140

Gadzhi is the obvious favorite, using that classic Dagestani wrestling we’ve come to recognize in Russian fighters. Borralho opened at +130 and has come up slightly toward closing. Both fighters looked fantastic at DWCS, but Omargadzhiev dominated his opponent without taking any damage at all, save a few ground strikes from bottom position. 

UFC Prop Betting Predictions

The under 2 ½ Rounds could be a solid bet.  Ghadzhi has finished eight of his thirteen fights total and Caio has finished four of his last eight fights. In fights with more talented fighters, Borralho often takes the bout to decision, and he’s willing to clench and lay on opponents to slow them down. I believe that Omargadzhiev and Barralho both are willing to have a slow showing in order to win. 

Betting on UFC on ESPN 34: Our Co-Main Pick 

Given his grappling centered style and willingness to go for submission, Gadzhi Omargadzhiev has defeated tougher fighters overall and has never been stopped. Gadzhi pays out at $77 per $100 wagered. 

UFC On ESPN 34 Prediction for Baeza vs Fialho

Fialho lost his UFC debut to Michel Pereira as a +250. All other odds are for various organizations including XMMA, UAE Warriors and PFL 2019 playoffs. He ranged from +250 to -649, losing twice as the favorite and once as a +210 underdog to Chris Curtis. Fialho faces Baeza, who’s lost his last two in the UFC at -139 and -138. He won his first four in the UFC ranging from -139 to -400. This is a chance at redemption for both athletes. 

Fighter Miguel ‘Caramel Thunder’ Baeza Andre Fialho
Age 29 28
Height 6’2’’ 6’0’’
Reach/Stance 74’’ Orthodox  74’’ Orthodox 
Record 10-2 14-4-1
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/2 0/0
Fighter Training Camp MMA Masters  Sanford MMA 

Baeza has been a killer for the majority of his career, going 10-0 until June 2021. He was stopped in his last fight with Williams in the third round, absorbing 49 significant strikes before the stoppage. His slight height advantage may help him in the clench, but Fialho was surprisingly complicit in striking with Pereira despite losing the whole fight on the feet. 
Fialho is mostly a knockout artist, but has two TKO losses outside of the UFC. The biggest win of his career is a 2021 knockout of former UFC fighter James Vick on the tail end of his five fight losing streak. 

UFC On ESPN 34 Betting Odds for Baeza vs Fialho

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Baeza Money Line -175
Fialho Money Line +145
Over 1 ½ Rounds -175
Under 1 ½ Rounds  +135
Baeza by Points +250
Baeza by TKO +135

Baeza is the superior fighter, and a narrow favorite. We’ve included only his prop bets, because Fialho’s feel like too much of a longshot to consider. There are other props available at PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!, but we’re ignoring all but our top choices. 

UFC Prop Betting Predictions

Over 1 ½ Rounds feels like a likely bet, as both fighters have been knocked out in the third round in the past. Chidi Njokuani put Fialho down in the first round in 2016, prior to his time at Sanford MMA. Baeza by TKO is a nice odds boost, but nothing we’re considering over the money line. Baezahas the superior submission game, and Fialho hasn’t scored a sub in his last ten fights. The UFC on ESPN 34 betting odds don’t offer enough to consider the ‘fight doesn’t go to decision’ props. 

UFC on ESPN 34 Prediction

Baeza looks to be the superior fighter both defensively and offensively. If Fialho allows for the clench, he will lose a slow decision. Baeza’s loss to Khoas Williams was an explosive exchange and sudden TKO, and Fialho doesn’t have that level of athleticism. Betting on Baeza will offer $57 per $100 wager. 

UFC On ESPN 34 Prediction for Yanan vs Silva 

This is Mayra’s seventh UFC bout, with odds ranging from -155 to +110. This is the strongest favorite position of her career. Wu is 1-3 in the UFC with odds from -130 to +300. She upset Lauren Mueller in 2018 as a +300 underdog in her only UFC win. Both fighters’ opening odds were -110, but Silva’s line has moved dramatically in closing, down from -500. 

Fighter Wu ‘Mulan’ Yanan Mayra Bueno Silva ‘Sheetara’
Age 26 30
Height 5’8’’ 5’6’’
Reach/Stance 66’’ Orthodox  66’’ Orhtodox 
Record 12-4 7-2-1
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/0 3/0
Fighter Training Camp Xinjiang Fight Gym, Jackson-Wink Chute Boxe Diego Lima

Yanan has the better stats on paper with more experience, a more proven gym and a slight height and age advantage. Sheetara has more UFC finishes and that counts for plenty. She was also able to survive Manon Fiorot, which is a big deal, as Fiorot has a 50% UFC finishing ratio. 
Wu’s first full camp at Jackson’s was for this upcoming fight. She has knockout power that hasn’t been seen before in the UFC, and her bout with Gina Mazany was at 125, an abnormal weight class for her. 

UFC On ESPN 34 Betting Odds for Yanan vs Silva 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Yanan Money Line +350
Silva Money Line -450
Over 2 ½ Rounds -200
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +150

Yanan is a big underdog, and many see the fight going to a decision. The -200 over is a big favorite, but both fighters have knocked out fighters outside of the UFC. Wu had a close fight with Inoue Mizuki, out striking her on paper by thirty total strikes. 

UFC Prop Betting Predictions

I think this fight could be over early. Neither fighter goes for takedowns very often at all, with Wu scoring only two over four fights and Silva never making an attempt at all. We’ll see a stand up, kickboxing centered match up. If we had to choose a prop, our pick is the Under.

Wu vs Silva Prediction

Wu was robbed in her fight with Inoue, and I think she should be 2-2. Silva’s only really beaten one successful UFC fighter in Gillian Robertson. This fight isn’t the blowout the odds are making it out to be. Our upset of the night is Wu Yanan, paying three and a half times your wager. There’s a reason these two opened with even odds. 

UFC On ESPN 34 Prediction for Sabatini vs Laramie 

Sabatini is undefeated in the UFC, winning twice as the underdog at +115 and +130. Laramie’s first two betting odds include his win to Daniel Swain as a -335, and a recent guillotine loss to Minner at -310. Sabatini is the clear favorite, and has only been stopped by injury in his 19 fight career. 

Fighter Pat Sabatini T.J ‘The Truth’ Laramie 
Age 33 24
Height 5’8’’ 5’6’’
Reach/Stance 70’’ Orthodox  66’’ Orthodox 
Record 16-3 12-4
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/0 0/1
Fighter Training Camp MPR Endurance MMA Maximum Training Centre 

Sabatini is the bigger man and has more career finishes. His record in the UFC speaks for itself, dominating in both decision wins by either takedowns or ground strikes. His heel hook of Jamall Emmers took only 1:53. 
Laramie has multiple knockout wins outside of the UFC, but his takedown play into the hand of Sabatini. Minner’s submission finish is foreshadowing of what’s to come against Sabatini. 

UFC On ESPN 34 Betting Odds for Sabatini vs Laramie

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Sabatini Money Line -500
Laramie Money Line +350
Over 2 ½ Rounds -150
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +115
Sabatini by Points +115
Laramie by TKO  +700
Sabatini by Submission +175

Sabatini is the favorite both in money line and prop bets, with his BJJ style skewing the props in favor of an early night. 

UFC Prop Betting Predictions

Sabatini should end the fight before the second, but there is always a chance that two grapplers see a long night. Sabatini by submission at +175 is the only prop that I would consider taking outside of the money line. 
We agree with the UFC on ESPN 34 odds, our pick is the Pat Sabatini money line at -500, a $20 return per $100 wagered. If you do bet the submission finish, avoid a parlay. 

UFC On ESPN 34 Prediction for Knight vs Clark 

Clark has lost his last two, putting him at 2-3 over his last five. He was the underdog in both losses, and his last upset win was Darko Stosic in 2019 at +105. He’s the favorite against Knight, and hasn’t lost as the favorite since his -150 bout with Jan Blachowicz in 2017. Knight has only lost twice in the UFC, at +150 and +127. He upset Menifield at +150 and Camur and Brundage at +125. In his career, Knight has only been the favorite once at -170. 

Fighter William ‘Knightmare’ Knight Devin  ‘Brown Bear’ Clark 
Age 34 32
Height 5’10’’ 6’0’’
Reach/Stance 73’’ Orthodox  75’’ Orthodox 
Record 11-3 12-6
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/3 0/0
Fighter Training Camp Thorton MMA Jackson-Wink

Clark is the bigger light heavyweight, as are most 205 pound fighters. Knight’s 5’10’’ frame is better suited for welterweight. Clearly, Knight has an advantage in finishing power, with three knockouts at the UFC level, though two were for DWCS. Clark is the favorite due to his time at Jackson-WInk, a much more proven school than Thorton. Jackson’s had a short skid, but multiple alumni are recently back in the win column, such as John Dodson. 

UFC On ESPN 34 Betting Odds for Knight vs Clark

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Knight Money Line +145
Clark Money Line -175
Over 1 ½ Rounds -300
Under 1 ½ Rounds  +220

Clark is a slight favorite. He’s only ever won by decision in the UFC, so the over is also a popular bet. Keep in mind two of Knight’s finishes were in the first round, but one was deep in the third. 

Knight has to get fighters moving forward to make up for range disadvantages.

UFC on ESPN 34 Knight vs Clark Betting Predictions

Knight’s last loss was to Maxim Grishin, a fighter with a 78’’ reach. It was clear Knight had trouble closing the gap, landing only 21 strikes in three rounds. I feel that Clark will play a similar range game, and be forced to look for the takedown. Our betting pick is the Over 1 ½ Rounds at -300, for the possibility of a late finish from either fighter. This bet pays out at $33 per $100 wager. 

UFC On ESPN 34 Prediction for Kianzad vs Lansberg

Lina has had eight fights in the UFC going 4-4. Her four wins include three upsets ranging +220 to +375. Her recent loss to McMann was at +125, and Lina opened as the favorite at -150. Pannie Kianzad lost to Pennington last September at +117.  She had a four fight winning streak ranging from +125 to -225 prior to that loss. Kianzad’s strong favorite status isn’t surprising, but Lansburg is in this fight. 

Fighter Pannie ‘Banzai’ Kianzad Lina ‘Elbow Queen’ Lansberg
Age 30 40
Height 5’7’’ 5’7’’
Reach/Stance 66’’ Orthodox  65’’ Orthodox 
Record 16-6 10-5
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/0 0/0
Fighter Training Camp Frontline Academy, various Redline Training Center 

Pannie has a decade of youth on her opponent and an additional six career wins. Neither fighter has a major training camp advantage. The UFC stats show Pannie landing an average five more strikes per minute, but Lina getting damaged about 25% less often overall. Kianzad will be forcing the pace, while Lansberg slows it back down. 

UFC On ESPN 34 Betting Odds for Kianzad vs Lansberg

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Kianzad Money Line -450
Lansberg Money Line +325
Over 2 ½ Rounds -400
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +275
Pannie Kianzad by Points -200
Lansberg by Points +600

Kianzad is a major favorite, tying the Over 2 ½ Rounds prop bet. Neither fighter has seen a UFC finish to date, and many believe that Lansberg could be Kianzad’s first UFC knockout, especially considering the athlete just turned forty years old. 
Kianzad by points may be a solid bet for fighters looking for a double odds boost, but our money is on the money line. Kianzad pays out at $22 per $100 wager in a fight we think could put her back in the UFC limelight. 

UFC On ESPN 34 Prediction for Klose vs Jenkins

Ironically, The Human Highlight Reel was knocked out in his UFC debut as a +225 underdog. In PFL and LFA he was the favorite, but was upset once there as well. Klose is coming off his second UFC and career loss to Beniel Dariush as a +155 underdog in 2020. Prior, he was a regular UFC favorite, upsetting fighters like Lando Vannata at +170. He beat Bobby Green at -250, and Giagos at -170. Klose has been off since a shove from Jeremy Stephens at weigh ins gave him a concussion. 

Fighter Drakkar Klose  Brandon ‘The Human Highlight Reel’ Jenkins
Age 33 30
Height 5’9’’ 6’0’’
Reach/Stance 70’’ Orthodox  71’’ Switch
Record 11-2-1 15-8
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/0 0/0

Klose is the slightly smaller man. He has less experience overall but has only lost at the UFC level. Jenkins has been knocked out multiple times, but also has multiple knockouts in LFA and PFL. 

UFC On ESPN 34 Betting Odds for Klose vs Jenkins 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Klose Money Line -800
Jenkins Money Line +500
Over 2 ½ Rounds -110
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -120
Klose by Points -115

Klose is a very strong favorite. This is a tough fight to bet on, because Klose will look to take it to the distance, and Jenkins will look for a very early win. With Dariush knocking out Klose, he showed us it’s possible that Klose can be put away. 

UFC on ESPN 34 Betting Predictions

Klose has fought knockout artists before and survived, but strikers like Bobby Green were able to hit him again and again. I think Klose could lose this fight. For that reason, we’re betting the Under 2 ½ Rounds at -120. Be cautious with this bet, as the chances of a Klose decision win are high in the oddsmaker’s eyes, but we don’t see it. 

UFC On ESPN 34 Prediction for Garcia vs Ronson

Ronson has lost three straight for the UFC, ranging from -115 to +270. He did well in PFL and ACB. Ronson choked Dalby as a +250 in his last fight, but was overturned and suspended for Methandienone, also known as Dianabol. 
Garcia won his last fight in a narrow decision over Natan Levy at -110. He was a +900 underdog in his loss to Haqparast and a -290 to Chris Gruetemacher. 

Fighter Rafa ‘Gifted’ Garcia Jesse ‘The Body Snatcher’ Ronson
Age 27 36
Height 5’7’’ 5’10’’
Reach/Stance 70’’ Orthodox  70’’ Southpaw
Record 13-2 21-10 1 NC
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/0 0/0

Garcia has lost fewer fights overall, and his bout with Haqparast wasn’t the blowout many expected it to be. He gives up height to Ronson but has a nine year age advantage. Ronson;s losses come postly prior to 2016. He’s been active as a pro since 2009. 

UFC On ESPN 34 Betting Odds for Garcia vs Ronson

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Garcia Money Line -110
Ronson Money Line -110
Over 2 ½ Rounds -185
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +140
Garcia by Points +175
Ronson by points  +140
Ronson by TKO +600

Ronson Is a slight favorite, with many seeing a decision win on his part. This, mostly due to Ronson’s striking defense, taking an average two less strikes per minute. Garcia has far superior takedowns, and will find the top position repeatedly.  

UFC Prop Betting Predictions

The over is a good bet between these two decision centered fighters. I can see Garcia winning the bout off control time alone. Ronson will have a slight advantage on the feet. A bet on Garcia is a double boon, because if Ronson is busted by USADA again, you’ll get your money back on the loss. 

Garcia vs Ronson Predictions

Rafa’s takedowns against Levey and Gruetzemacher showed his true skill. He landed 12 takedowns in two fights, and Ronson gave up twelve in his last four. Our betting pick is Rafa Garcia -110. He’s likely to win by a narrow decision. This bet pays out $91 per $100 wager. 

UFC On ESPN 34 Prediction for Barnett vs Buday 

Martin was a major favorite in DWCS at -600, winning by first round TKO. Beastboy is 1-1 in the UFC, winning his last fight by a beautiful spinning heel kick in the second round at +112. He lost to Rothwell at +290, and comes in the underdog for the third time in his career. 

Fighter Chris ‘Beastboy’ Barnett Martin ‘BADYS’ Buday
Age 35 30
Height 5’9’’ 6’4’’
Reach/Stance 75’’ Orthodox 77’’ Orthodox 
Record 22-7 9-1
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/1 0/1

Both fighters have knockout power, and both have been finished before. Barnett is the much smaller fighter, but both weighed in at the heavyweight cap of 265 pounds in their last bout. 

UFC On ESPN 34 Betting Odds for Barnett vs Buday

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Barnett Money Line +180
Buday Money Line -230
Over 1 ½ Rounds +125
Under 1 ½ Rounds  -165
Will the Fight Go the Distance, No -475
Barnett by TKO +350
Buday by TKO  +115

There are plenty of good bets for fans of both fighters on this table. Barnett is the underdog, and I have no doubts fans of his flashy style will look for his moneyline for triple your money betting. 

UFC Prop Betting Predictions

Barnett has seen two decisions since 2016, and has multiple knockout losses and wins outside of UFC. Buday has never seen a decision, but hasn’t fought anyone outside of European regional fights, scoring easy victories in Oktagon Prime as well. The bet ‘Fight Goes to Decision, No’ is the obvious choice for us. It pays out $21 per $100 wager. There is no such thing as a guaranteed finish, but this is as close as it comes. 

UFC On ESPN 34 Prediction for Ogden vs Leavitt

Fighter Trey ‘The Samurai Ghost’ Ogden  Jordan ‘The Monkey King’ Leavitt
Age 32 26
Height 5’11’’ 5’9’’
Reach/Stance 72’’ Orthodox 71’’ Southpaw
Record 15-4 9-1
Submissions/TKO in UFC Debut 2/1

Ogden had a great showing in Fury FC 53, but he has been finished before. He’s lost three times via submission, playing right into the hands of Jordan Leavitt. Leavitt’s slam knockout has gained major highlight status, but his ground game is next to none in the top position. This is a grappler versus grappler match up, one that Leavitt tends to win, though his last loss was due to control time given up to Claudio Puelles at -200. 

UFC On ESPN 34 Betting Odds for Ogden vs Leavitt

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Ogden Money Line -130
Leavitt Money Line +110
Over 2 ½ Rounds -110
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -120
Will the Fight Go the Distance. Yes -105

Don’t pull guard on Leavitt.
I do not understand these odds. Ogden has more losses, he’s a smaller fighter, and no UFC level experience. Leavitt was the favorite in opening odds at -155, but the lines shifted as bettors weighed in. This is our top bet of the night, Leavitt at +110. He’s never been finished, and Ogden has taken more career damage. The only question is, does Ogden have a better nickname, and does that matter? Leavitt pays out at $110 per $100 wager. 

UFC On ESPN 34 Prediction for Hughes vs Nunes 

Fighter Sam ‘Sampage’ Hughes  Istela Nunes 
Age 29 29
Height 5’5’’ 5’4’’
Reach/Stance 64’’ Orthodox  66’’ Orthodox 
Record 5-4 6-2, 1 NC
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/0 0/0

Both fighters have only losses in the UFC, with a slight reach advantage going to Nunes. Hughes was 5-1 coming into the UFC. She takes an average of 5.6 strikes per minute, while Nunes takes only 2.7.
One of these two will capture their first UFC win. 

UFC On ESPN 34 Betting Odds for Hughes vs Nunes

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Hughes Money Line +178
Nunes Money Line -220
Over 2 ½ Rounds -300
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +220
Nunes by Points -141
Nunes by TKO  +550
Hughes by Points  +285

Nunes is a slight favorite, and we agree. Hughes was knocked out by Tecia Torres, and Nunes was winning the fight in striking count in her first UFC showing, so were not counting out a finish. Don’t bet the points or Over prop despite the temptation. Nunes could win this fight via TKO or decision. A bet on Nunes pays out $45 per $100 wager. 


UFC On ESPN 34 Prediction for Croom vs Alateng

Fighter Kevin ‘Crash’ Croom Heili ‘The Mongolian Knight’ Alanteng
Age 34 29
Height 5’11’’ 5’5’’
Reach/Stance 73’’ Orthodox 66’’ Orthodox
Record 21-14, 1 NC 14-8-2
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/0 0/0

Croom’s first submission win was overturned due to cannabis use. Alanteng is the much smaller fighter, and that range cost him in his past two fights. Croom has struggled in his last two because of takedown defense, and Alanteng will be looking to exploit that, taking seven takedowns in his two UFC wins. 

UFC On ESPN 34 Betting Odds for Croom vs Alateng 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Croom Money Line +155
Alateng Money Line -190
Over 2 ½ Rounds -175
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +135
With the Fight Go the Distance, No  +115
Croom by TKO +650
Alateng by TKO +275
Alateng by Points  +125

Stats suggest the Over 2 ½ Rounds or Alateng by points are good prop bets. However, we think Alatengheili at -190 is the best choice. It’s’ a $53 per $100 wager payout on a fighter with better wrestling and proven defense against Croom’s style of MMA. 

Betting on UFC on ESPN 34

All odds are accurate as of April 13th, 2022. Drop a comment below if you got anything out of this breakdown. Head over to the Bellator 277 blog for more MMA and parlay options. 

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Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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