Rodolfo Vieira, I hate you and I don’t even use the H-word. How could you?
The old saying here rings true: You punch a BJJ black belt in the face, he becomes a brown belt. Hit him again and he’s a purple belt…and so on.
I can’t blame him. I put a fighter on a parlay as an anchor no doubt because I “trusted” him to get the win…No, I didn’t trust him. I just thought he would get the victory.
That is where I went wrong and honestly, continue to do so with parlays. I am going to have to grab my nearest stick, draw a line in the dirt, and not cross it. Vieira was unproven and it didn’t take an exercise physiologist to guess that he was going to run out of gas before the end of the fight.
I don’t think any of us thought it would be after about 2 and a half minutes, but it is what it is. Our other parlay picks came in nicely. Go figure, right?
I will shut up about last week but will never forget. The betting odds we will use today are brought to us by the beautiful folks over at BetOnline. This online sportsbook continually leads the way in mixed martial arts betting and this weekend’s card from the desert is no different.
Let’s pick some fighters for a parlay or two but with rules in place that they must be proven mixed martial artists who don’t FLAKE.
UFC Parlay #1
Curtis Blaydes + Charles Rosa: -110
You don’t get much more proven inside of the Octagon as far as consistency goes than Curtis Rayzor Blaydes. Curtis knows exactly what he wants to do inside of the Octagon come fight night. So do the matchmakers, so do the fans at home, and so does his opponent.
That doesn’t change a thing. Blaydes doesn’t care about anyone’s opinion of whether or not he fought an exciting fight, a risky fight, a safe one, a boring one, etc.
That is exactly the type of MMA fighter I like to bet on. There is a reason why his opening betting odds of (-250) to defeat Derrick Lewis have nearly doubled at this point. I like Blaydes here to win this fight at least 8 out of 10 times.
I have heard people say that Derrick Lewis conserves his energy well and while that may be true of his striking style, his energy expenditure is going to rise sharply in this fight because unless he catches Curtis early on with a shot that changes the fight, The Black Beast is going to be fighting defensively for the vast majority of the contest.
Charles Rosa isn’t on the level of Curtis Blaydes nor will he ever be but I love how well he matches up with Darrick Minner. Both Rosa and Minner are BJJ black belts and I think that will help this fight go a little longer.
Darrick, the underdog, has always been a first round or bust type of guy and while there is the possibility that he turns that around at the age of 30, that’s not how we make our decisions around here.
We go off of history, mostly recent history as our evidence to prove our hunch to be worth a particular monetary risk. I get to see both sides of this, guys. I am a bit bi-polar and manic-depressive. Working with the mania is much easier and more fun but I have to be very careful not to get anxious and happy about a betting play.
We should only be happy when the bet cashes but the point I was attempting to make is that it is easy to live in the future when you are anxious and I can get that way sometimes but it is also normal at times to live in the past when you are feeling depressed.
I have got to the point in my life to where I can recognize my shift in moods and work with them accordingly. Some people only see the present and believe me, I envy that a lot. There’s a saying: If you have one foot in tomorrow and another foot in yesterday, then you’re peeing all over today.
As far as being anxious or depressed, I have been there far too many times but there are benefits to madness believe it or not. Michael Jordan was the most competitive human who has ever existed, to the best of our knowledge. He was so competitive that he barely enjoyed anything. He fought with his teammates.
Many people have said that Michael was one of the biggest buttholes in the game during his day but that gift/curse as well as the innate ability to fly led him to 6 NBA Finals and 6 NBA Championship Rings.
I guess I’m just trying to make myself better for being crazy but I think you have to be a little nuts or else you’ll just be one of the rest. You can read the book, study it, and even master it but it is still a book that others can master as well.
A 25-year-old Conor McGregor said “I’ve lost me mind doing this game, yea, like Vincent Van Gogh.”
I say write your own book and then nobody else can master it but you.
Somehow, this is supposed to bring us back around to Charles Rosa because Charlie is the MJ of MMA. I really like Rosa here against Minner who has historically been a first round fighter.
Rosa has submitted first round or bust submission fighters before like Manny Bermudez and has lasted against 3 round submission hounds like Bryce Thug Nasty Mitchell. There is a chance Minner catches him with something early on but I don’t think so.
Rosa fights very calmly in there. He likes to keep his range and win on points. I think that style will help him survive round one and it is his fight to lose after that.
Pick: Rosa and Blaydes
UFC Parlay #2
Blaydes + Rosa + Vieira: +166
I know what you’re thinking, guys. That name…
How did we start out these betting predictions and how are we ending it? I don’t think Rodolfo or Ketlen Vieira are the same fighter, though. The latter has actually shown the ability to not only last until or through the third round but come back strong in the final stanza to get the victory.
I don’t think Ketlen is necessarily levels above Yana Kunitskya but styles make fights and I really like how these two match up. Yana is a forward pressure, wear you down in the clinch type of fighter and that plays directly into the hands of one of the biggest women at 135, Vieira.
Yana is used to being the larger fighter in there and she simply won’t have that advantage against the Brazilian. Ketlen also has good takedowns that match up very well with a takedown defense rate of 33% from the underdog.
I believe Ketlen is likely to win this fight on the feet with a little bit of cage control time in the clinch but 33% defense is well below average. I would say 66% is probably the average while Ketlen is up at 53% which is some of the best in the entire UFC.
She secures 2 for every 15 minutes of fighting so the numbers tell us that this fight should be a cruise for Ketlen. We have only lost betting on her once and that is the only loss of her career when Irena Aldana caught her with a filthy left hook and put her out.
I am not as sold on Ketlen as a lot of people are because I did bet on her and saw her struggle with Sarge Eubanks but the heart she showed in the end won me out. It was really unexpected because I judged her as a bully and she proved me wrong.
Pick: Vieira + Blaydes + Rosa
Our party got busted last week by a guy that goes by the name of Fluffy. Yes, that one will hurt probably forever but I welcome that pain because pain is the best teacher on planet earth.
Name a better one. I’ll wait.
Rodolfo has question marks encircling him as he entered the Octagon last Saturday night and so many of us just decided to ignore them. Cardio? Muscle endurance? Heart? Toughness?
All he had to do was go 1/4 or 2/4 on those but “0 for” didn’t cut it and he paid dearly. Rodolfo will likely never be the same after that one and I’m not talking about the physical toll either. Coming back from failing, gassing, quitting, and then TAPPING OUT is not going to be easy on the psyche of a 10x submission grappling world champion.
Charles Rosa and Ketlen Vieira aren’t 10 or 15 fight veterans of the UFC but they have each had 5 and I have seen enough to put them into our parlays for Saturday night.
Styles make fights and these two match up very very well with their opponents on Fight Night. Then, there is Curtis Blaydes who is far from a bettable fighter any longer on the moneyline that is climbing towards (-500) but he is a better fighter than Derrick and he, of course, couldn’t match up any better.
Get those plays in now and enjoy the scraps on Saturday night from the desert!