We always get bit on that third leg. I guess that’s why we were born with only two.
Parlays are difficult and risky but so is beating the sportsbooks on straight bets. There isn’t much free lunch available for any of us. This is hard work finding the best value on these cards and sometimes we can work harder than ever and still lose.
I looked at last week’s card for probably two weeks and could barely make any sense of it. It reminded me of the first time I worked on a construction site. They showed me the blueprints…
Wow. What are these lines??
It’s okay, though. I have some fights I like quite a bit this week and a few solid favorites that I wanted to add into a parlay.
BetOnline has the betting odds for us so let’s dive in!
Spike Carlyle + Kai Kamaka: +115
These two men are incredibly physically talented and Kai is quite technical also on his feet. Both Kamaka and Carlyle are making their sophomore appearances inside of the Octagon.
Kai debuted against Tony Kelley and these two put on a heck of a show. It has easily been one of the top five fights of 2020. They each landed 114 significant strikes on each other but it was the 5 takedowns by Kamaka to zero from Tony that was the clear difference.
Kelley is a very skillful striker who is also very tall and long like Kai’s opponent, Jonathan Pearce will be in this matchup. It has been a year outside of competition for Pearce and Kai was just in there mixing it up for a 15 minute frantic pace.
The Tennessee born and MMA Lab trained Pearce is a solid fighter but I don’t think he is on the level of Kai Kamaka. The only thing that concerns me is the size differential. 6’ vs 5’7” is a big difference but Kai will get in there and get this fight to the mat if needed.
I like him as a straight bet at (-165). I think that is a great price and we wouldn’t be getting it if he didn’t lose his previous matchup with Billy Quarantillo. He almost finished Billy Q in the first and that effort catalyzed his fatigue and directly into the wheelhouse of the grinding Quarantillo.
Bill Algeo, Spike’s opponent this Saturday is a little taller and longer than Billy and I think the strength differential will be massive. These two are fighting in a small cage also.
I think Carlyle will put him away early but we may see a more measured approach to keep his cardio for the later rounds if needed.
For that reason, I will stay away from picking the under for the round total. We have him on a straight play as well as this parlay so I suppose that should suffice.
Pick: Carlyle + Kamaka
We are betting on a couple of explosive strikers who also have a great takedown game. I think they will be better than their respective opponents anywhere the fight goes.
We are both betting on the shorter fighters but we will be in the small cage and both men will have a better center of gravity.
Kai and Spike are also highly aggressive front foot fighters and that’s what this small cage thing is all about. It’s not always who is the better wrestler even though I think we are on the A-side there as well with this play.
Whoever is pressing the action will be the one who takes the center of the Octagon and in the smaller cage, this advantage is magnified.
Get your bets in now, team, because it is 2020 and the Cowboys might hurt everyone’s wallet and win on Thanksgiving!