UFC is back with ten fights at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. In this preview, we cover each bout, offering a top betting pick and the latest odds on every fight. Bets must be placed before the fight, this Saturday, January 15th 2022 by 8:PM PST.
Calvin Kattar vs Giga Chikadze
If you haven’t seen our full coverage of this fight, including a detailed breakdown of available prop bets, see the main event pick here. Giga Chikadze is on the rise in the featherweight division, putting him at #8 in the rankings. Kattar is #5, fallen below Chan Sung Jung for title contention.
We're Back! The Fighters Have Stepped On The Scales To Make It Official For The First Card Of 2022.
Follow Along Here For The #UFCVegas46 Weigh-In Results:
— UFC News (@UFCNews) January 14, 2022
Tale of the Tape for Kattar vs Chikadze
| Fighter | Calvin Kattar | Giga Chikadze |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 32 | 33 |
| Height | 5’11’’ | 6’0’’ |
| Reach/Stance | 72” Orthodox | 74” Orthodox |
| Record | 22-5 | 14-2 |
| Submissions/TKO in UFC | 0/4 | 0/3 |
| Fighter Training Camp | New England Cartel, 617 Fight Sports | Kings MMA, Rafael Cordeiro |
Giga’s team, record over the last five fights, height and reach all offer him advantages in the fight versus Kattar. We’ll see Chikadze striking from the outside, and Kattar unable to close the distance to land his best strikes.
Betting Odds for Kattar vs Chikadze
| Bet Available at Betonline.ag | Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager |
| Calvin Kattar | +198, $1.98 |
| Giga Chikadze | -233, $0.43 |
| Over 2 ½ Rounds | -170, $0.59 |
| Under 2 ½ Rounds | +140, $1.40 |
Kattar is 2-3 as the underdog inside the UFC, while Giga’s on a seven fight winning streak since moving to King’s MMA. It’s difficult to see any way of Chikadze losing this bout. He won’t make rookie striking mistakes that could cost him a knockout loss, and Kattar has no submission wins to his name in the UFC.
A ????????? featherweight fight is set for your first main event of 2022 ?@CalvinKattar takes on @Giga_Chikadze ???????? ?????!
[ #UFCVegas46 | Tomorrow | Main Card 7???? LIVE on @ESPN & E+ ] pic.twitter.com/jAhXR4mipd
— UFC (@ufc) January 14, 2022
Chikadze hasn’t given up a takedown since March 2020, giving up no control points in the last eleven rounds inside the cage.
Final Betting Pick
Chikadze is about to rise past Kattar, and usher in a new era of kickboxing quality for the featherweights. I think he goes on to beat T-City or Holloway, solidifying himself as #1 contender before taking the title at the end of the year. If you didn’t bet on his MMA Futures, see that prediction among others here.
Jennifer Maia vs Katlyn Chookagian
This flyweight bout pits #2 Chookagian vs #4 Jennifer Maia. This is a rematch after Maia lost to Chookagian in 2019. Both fighters have since lost to the champ Valentina Shevchenko, though Chookagian has been more active.
Tale of the Tape for Maia vs Chookagian
| Fighter | Jannifer Maia | Katlyn Chookagian |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 33 | 33 |
| Height | 5’4’’ | 5’9 |
| Reach/Stance | 64” Orthodox | 68” Orthodox |
| Record | 19-7-1 | 16-4 |
| Submissions/TKO in UFC | 1/0 | 0/0 |
| Fighter Training Camp | Chute Boxe Academy | Renzo Gracie Combat Team |
Maia’s advantage is her black belt in BJJ (Chookagian is a brown belt.) Maia is more experienced in general, beginning her MMA career in 2009, three years earlier than Chookagian.
Fight Training Camp Comparison
Chute Boxe Academy is a massive school with dozens of active fighters at any given time. The coaching is a mix of great coaches and moderate ones. I don’t see Maia cross training, and I rarely see her style evolve fight to fight.
Renzo Gracie Combat Team carries dozens of fighters at the highest level across several locations, including Joao Zeferino and Rafael Natal. Chookagian regularly trains with many of the sport’s best submission fighters and top pressure grapplers.
I see Renzo Gracie Combat Team as having a slight advantage, simply because they’ve produced more consistent top tier talent.
Betting Odds for Maia vs Chookagian
| Bet Available at Betonline.ag | Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager |
| Chookagian Money Line | -180, $0.56 |
| Maia Money Line | +155, $1.55 |
| Over 2 ½ Rounds | -350, $0.29 |
| Under 2 ½ Rounds | +275, $2.75 |
The money line odds favor Chookagian, who won the first bout by a slight margin. I imagine Chookagian’s consistent fight activity also makes her a strong favorite. Chookagian was the underdog versus Calvilo and Andrade, losing only to Andrade. She was a -135 in the 2019 bout with Maia, so has only risen moderately despite the win.
She was +1100 in her fight against the champ and +137 in her first bout with Chookagian.
The Over/Under Bets
The over is so high given Chookagian’s tendency to go the distance in victory. She’s been knocked out twice, so If I were Maia, I’d swing for the fences hoping to take advantage of that weakness.
Something tells me one of these fighters is due for a finish. The evidence points to the Over 2 ½ Rounds prop, but my gut tells me to stick with my Chookagian money line.
Fight Tape Analysis and UFC Stats
Chookagian poses some specific challenges to Maia.
Chookagian lands and gets hit about once more on average in comparison to Maia, but is more aggressive, stepping into the pocket and clenching range more often.
Chookagian’s Last Five Fights
Chookagian is 3-2 of her last five. In her last two, she took narrow wins over Araujo and Calvillo. The Andrade fight revealed some weaknesses in her grappling, but Andrade is strong for featherweight and I don’t see Maia managing to recreate that strategy.
Maia’s Last Five Fights
Maia has fought Chookagian inside her last five fights. She’s 3-2 in her last five and 4-3 in the UFC overall. Maia managed to rise quickly with wins over Wood and Modafferi, but struggles against competition that’s on the top level.
She did go the distance with Shevchenko, and that dismisses any inclination that Chookagian can score a knockout.
Chookagian vs Maia 1 in 2019
Chookagian scored 73 to Maia’s 58 strikes in this bout, losing round one but winning two and three. Maia did score a third round takedown capturing 1:58 of control, but she’s not going to be able to do that early in the bout and keep Chookagian’s pace.
Final Betting Pick
I see Chookagian taking the win in a very close decision. She’s been more active and manages her energy well. Beating the opponent in narrow victories isn’t a bug for Chookagian, it’s her core strategy. Expect her to be a half step ahead for fifteen minutes, paying you $0.56 per dollar wager.
Bill Algeo vs Joanderson Brito
Algeo is now 1-3 in the UFC, so he’s facing off against a newcomer straight out of DWCS. Brito saw a decision win over Diego Lopes in 2021. Someone will get another shot at the featherweight division with a win Saturday night.
Tale of the Tape for Algeo vs Brito
| Fighter | Bill Algeo | Joanderson Brito |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 32 | 26 |
| Height | 6’0’’ | 5’8’’ |
| Reach/Stance | 73’’ Switch | 72’’ Orthodox |
| Record | 14-6 | 12-2-1 |
| Submissions/TKO in UFC | 0/0 | 0/0 |
| Fighter Training Camp | Algeo MMA and Kickboxing | Chute Boxe Bauru |
Brito is younger and smaller, though Algeo is a bit tall for the featherweight division in general. Algoe was 13-3 before entering into the UFC, similar to Brito’s record. Neither fighter had faced much competition prior to entering into the UFC.
Fighter Training Camp Comparison
Chute Boxe Bauru is an offshoot of the gym that Jennifer Maia trains at in Brazil. This particular school has only nine active fighters. I worry that Bauru doesn’t offer UFC level sparring competition.
Algeo MMA isn’t much better. Being the head coach of the gym you’re training at is a bad idea for UFC level fighting. Algeo has been cross training at spots like Nick Catone MMA and the UFC Performance Institute. I’m happy to see him branching out, away from his home gym. Algeo is a black belt in MMA, but he has only one other black belt level sparring partner in Pennsylvania.
Betting Odds for Algeo vs Brito
| Bet Available at Betonline.ag | Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager |
| Algeo Money Line | +112, $1.12 |
| Brito Money Line | -132, $0.76 |
| Over 2 ½ Rounds | -155, $0. 65 |
| Under 2 ½ Rounds | +125, $1.25 |
Brito was the underdog in DWCS, winning with a +105 odds. He fought at LFA as well, winning over Jose Mariscal with a first round knockout with -165 odds.
Algeo was the underdog in his only UFC win over Spike Carlyle. He’s been the underdog in four of his five UFC appearances, ranging from -125 to +275.
Over/Under Betting Analysis
Algeo has only ever fought to a decision inside the UFC, that’s four fights in a row. Brito did the same in his DWCS victory over Diego Lopes. While both fighters have finishing power and good submission work, I see no evidence that a stoppage is one the way. Brito defended multiple submission attempts form Lopes, and despite hunting for the takedown often, is a ground strike focused fighter.
Fight Tape Analysis and UFC Stats
Algeo is a blackbelt, but his submission work is under-represented inside the UFC. He’s scored only two takedowns in his career, and focuses primarily on striking exchanges.
| UFC Stats | Bill Algeo | Joanderson Brito |
| Strikes Landed per Minute | 6.37 | 4.31 |
| Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 4.87 | 1.96 |
Algeo has a higher pace and lower striking defense. He may also have simply fought tougher competition, such as his Ricardo Lamas fight.
Brito is a smaller featherweight, and -132 is too much of a lead. I see these fighters as closer to even, -105/-105 odds would be more ideal.
Brito’s Last Five Fights
Prior to the Contender series, Bill won in LFA, Future FC and Thunder Fights. Brito fought quality local fighters, like the undefeated Estabili Amato.
Brito will struggle against Algeo’s submission attempts, and it will lengthen the fight.
Algeo’s Last Five Fights
Algeo’s performances in the UFC haven’t been his best showing. His last fight against Ricardo Ramos was competitive, but Ramos took him down eight times. Ricardo Lamas had a similar showing, including five takedowns.
Final Betting Pick
Algeo will look to win a striking battle, hoping that his wrestling has improved. I’d love to see him at least threaten Brito with submissions to get to a standing position.
Brito will struggle to finish fighters in the UFC until he hones in his striking accuracy, which is still looping and unrefined.
Both fighters point to the Over 2 ½ Rounds prop as the best bet. At -155 it pays just less than a Brito win, but covers our bases in a fight between two middle of the road featherweights. Expect Brito to drop to Bantamweight to stay competitive long term.
Rogerio Bontorin vs Brandon Royval
Royval is now 2-2 in the UFC with each fight finding the finish. He’s struggled to find the right level of competition, mowing down fighters outside of the top fifteen, but losing instantly to contenders.
Bontorin is coming off an overturned bout against Matt Schnell, and is on a similar path to Royval, unable to face steps up in competition. He’s in the top ten, but it doesn’t feel due.
This is the right fight for both fighters, and will likely come to a finish for these two flyweights.
Tale of the Tape for Bontorin vs Royval
| Fighter | Rogerio Bontorin | Brandon Royval |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 29 | 29 |
| Height | 5’5’’ | 5’9’’ |
| Reach/Stance | 67” Orthodox | 68” Southpaw |
| Record | 16-3, 2 NC | 12-6 |
| Submissions/TKO in UFC | 1/1 | 2/0 |
| Fighter Training Camp | Gile Ribeiro Team | Factory X |
Royval is the lankier fighter, and his southpaw stance will offer a higher likelihood of the straight left doing real damage. Bontorin is a more striking centered fighter, but I think he’ll struggle to do damage to Royval given the reach and stance disadvantage.
Fight Camp Comparison
Royval is at Factory X alongside Anthony Smith and other UFC level athletes. Factory X was a muay thai centered school, but you’ll find many of their athletes with notable ground striking and takedowns. Kru Marc Montoya was the 2018 Coach of the Year and resides at Factory X, and I feel he may be one of the keys to Royval’s success.
Gile still coaches, and other fighters like Thiago Frasson have taken leadership positions. While this gym hasn’t had UFC contenders in the top five yet, they will in the next five years. Ribeiro Team is good, though I give a slight tip of the cap to Factory X for it’s proven coaching and multiple contender level fighters.
Betting Odds for Royval vs Bontorin
| Bet Available at Betonline.ag | Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager |
| Royval Money Line | -170, $0.59 |
| Bontorin Money Line | -145, $1.45 |
| Over 2 ½ Rounds | +140, $1.40 |
| Under 2 ½ Rounds | -170, $0.59 |
Royval is the favorite, coming off of two losses as the underdog at +137 and +150 to Moreno and Pantoja. He was the underdog in his first three UFC appearances as well, and in many LFA appearances dating back to 2017. This is the first time the oddsmakers have believed in Royval in five years.
Bontorin is also an underdog in six fights running, including each of his UFC appearances, win or lose. He comes in from +105 to +300. His last loss was at +117.
The Over/Under Analysis
The under is a rare favorite, with Royval’s four UFC bouts coming to an early end, each before the end of the second round. Bontorin has seen three decisions and three finishes in the UFC. His last decision with Schnell was overturned due to Bontorin missing weight, so that win isn’t on record, but it still speaks to how he fights.
I see a finish for Royval, but I’ll stay away from the props.
Fight Tape Analysis and UFC Stats
A key factor in this fight is takedown ability. Their striking stats are similar, though Royval is more defensive and lands less punches on average.
| Takedown Stats | Royval | Bontorin |
| Takedown Accuracy | 100% | 43% |
| Average Takedowns per Fight | 1.16 | 1.68 |
Royval will use takedowns slightly less often, but has never failed at getting the opponent to the canvas. Bontorin will shoot for at least four takedowns on average, opening himself up to Royval’s high quality counter-wrestling submission game.
Royval’s Last Five Fights
Royval was finished by Pantoja in the first round and Moreno in the final second of Round 1. His bout with Kara-France ended in a Guillotine after out striking France 39 to 22. Bontorin lost to France last year via first round knockout, but that speaks more to Kara-France’s one year improvement than anything.
Roval makes his takedowns and sweeps count, gaining 90 seconds of control over France in round one with a sweep. Bontroin has the tendency to give up control time, which I think could lead to the Royval decision win.
Bontorin’s Last Five Fights
Is 1-2 of his last three. His loss to Ray Borg was a grinding decision that I don’t think Royval has the wrestling to recreate, and France knocked Bontorin out with thirteen strikes total.
Bontorin has been active since 2018 with DWCS and UFC. He has power, smashing Paiva with a ground strikes victory, but Royval’s submission work and sweeps should stave off any heavy ground striking. I can’t find an obvious path to victory for Bontorin outside of the lucky punch, or maybe the lucky decision- as with his win over Bibulatov Magomed where he was outstruck and lost more control time, still winning in 2019.
Final Betting Pick
Bet Brandon Royval at -170. It’s his first time as the favorite, he’s training with more high level fighters, and his stance and style are a bad match up for Bontorin. Expect a slow, methodical fight with a chance of a flash finish from Royval.
Ramiz Brahimaj vs Court McGee
This Welterweight battle is between the veteran Court McGee and the newcomer Ramiz Brahimaj. McGee has been in the UFC ten years longer than Ramiz, but both fighters have even wins and losses for the promotion. Mcgee is 9-9 and Ramiz is 1-1. One fighter will leave this bout with a losing UFC record.
Tale of the Tape for Brahimaj vs McGee
| Fighter | Ramiz Brahimaj | Court McGee |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 29 | 37 |
| Height | 5’10’’ | 5’11’’ |
| Reach/Stance | 72’’ Orthodox | 75’’ Orhtodox |
| Record | 9-3 | 21-10 |
| Submissions/TKO in UFC | 1/0 | 2/0 |
| Fighter Training Camp | Fortis MMA | Pit Elevated, Agema BJJ |
McGee was The Ultimate Fighter season 11 winner, so he’s older and far more experienced than Ramiz. Court also takes the height and reach advantages.
I expect Ramiz to show better wrestling, and continue his 100% takedown accuracy streak.
Comparing Fighter Camps
Fortis MMA is home to Alex Morono and other UFC athletes like Geoff Neal. They have quality coaching, and a growing pool of fighters. Sayif Saud is a quality leader, and time and again has produced athletes ready for UFC competition, 19 fighters to date.
McGee made a recent move to Agema BJJ and MMA in an attempt to improve his submission work. Agema has only one active fighter, and this cross training choice seems strange to me.
Fortis is a much better training environment with high level skills of every discipline.
Betting Odds for Brahimaj vs McGee
| Bet Available at Betonline.ag | Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager |
| McGee Money Line | -105, $0.95 |
| Brahimaj Money Line | -115, $0.87 |
| Over 2 ½ Rounds | -185, $0.54 |
| Under 2 ½ Rounds | +155, $1.55 |
McGee was a +105 underdog in his last fight, a win over Claudio Silva. He was a -128 favorite over Condit, who beat him in 2020. McGee’s odds seem to flip flop between favorite and underdog, from fight to fight and from opening to close. He opened as a -120 favorite over Ramiz.
Ramiz is an LFA import, where he ranged from -315 to +145. He lost as the underdog to Griffin and beat Palatnikov as a -159. Oddsmakers seem to have a good handle on Brahimaj’s performances.
Fight Tape Analysis and UFC Stats
Brahimaj displays high quality wrestling, but a frame that’s too small for welterweight. I hope he drops to 155 as his career advances. Despite that, I see Ramiz winning via decision or submission.
McGee’s 69% takedown defense has been falling, and he’s given up seven takedowns in the last six fights. Ramiz isn’t a fantastic striker, but his camp will prepare him to take on the aging Court McGee.
Final Betting Pick
Bet Brahimaj at -115, and steer clear of the props in case of another early RNC victory from this Fortis MMA fighter.
Jake Collier vs Chase Sherman
These heavyweights are outside of the top fifteen, but are still exciting fighters with plenty to offer the promotion. Sherman and Collier both have been knocked out three times in the UFC.
This is either fighter’s win.
Tale of the Tape for Collier vs Sherman
| Fighter | Jake Collier | Chase Sherman |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 33 | 32 |
| Height | 6’3’’ | 6’4’’ |
| Reach/Stance | 78’’ Orthodox | 78’’ Orthodox |
| Record | 12-6 | 15-8 |
| Submissions/TKO in UFC | 0/1 | 0/2 |
| Fighter Training Camp | Smith Pit MMA | Alan Belcher MMA, Jackson Wink MMA |
Sherman is the slightly bigger man, with more finishes and more losses. He’s training with Jackson Wink, but his home gym is Alan Belcher MMA. Both are quality schools though Jackson’s has obviously produced more champions.
Smith Pit is Patrick Smith’s MMA gym. It’s a small-time gym and Collier is the first big fighter to come out of it. Sherman has a massive training advantage.
Betting Odds for Collier vs Sherman
| Bet Available at Betonline.ag | Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager |
| Sherman Money LIne | +108, $1.08 |
| Collier Money Line | -128, $0.78 |
| Over 2 ½ Rounds | -175, $0.57 |
| Under 2 ½ Rounds | +145, $1.45 |
Sherman’s last two fights as the underdog was with Augusto Sakai, a knockout loss in 2018 at +210 and Arlovski at +100. His closer bouts tend to go to decision.
Collier has been the underdog for six fights running, ranging from +110 to +325, going 3-3 in that time frame.
Over/Under Bet Analysis
Four of Collier’s last five went to decision, each fight except the Aspinall knockout loss. Four of Sherman’s last seven fights went the distance. These two fighters have good knockout power, and generally poor striking defense. Sherman comes in at 6.3 strikes absorbed per minute, and Collier at 4.44. The Under 2 ½ Rounds makes sense to me, given its payout. I think we’re going to have a fight of the night on our hands, with one man getting finished before 2:30 in the third round.
Fight Tape Analysis and Final Betting Pick
Collier has the tendency to move forward when he should be picking his shots. I thought he beat Carlos Felipe in their last bout. However, his training environment isn’t ideal and he never travels to train due to money concerns.
Sherman has only won one of his last six. He’s still making a career out of fighting, I expect him to bring some intensity to this next bout.
I’m hoping for a finish, so I’ll bet the Under 2 ½ Rounds bet $1.45. It pays better than Collier and covers any Chase Sherman comeback fights.
Vlacheslave Borshchev vs Dakota Bush
Neither of these lightweights is in the top fifteen. Bush lost his debut to Austin Hubbard, while Borshchev upset Chris Dunan in the UFC. If you look back at my betting pick, I was very bullish about the Slava Claus win over Duncan. Borshchev is a kickboxing coach for team Alpha Male, and a high level fighter.
Tale of the Tape for Borshchev vs Bush
| Fighter | Vlacheslave Borshchev | Dakota Bush |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 29 | 27 |
| Height | 5’11’’ | 5’10’’ |
| Reach/Stance | 69’’ Orthodox | 73’’ Orthodox |
| Record | 5-1 | 8-3 |
| Submissions/TKO in UFC | 0/1 | 0/0 |
Broshchev’s experience in MMA shouldn’t be viewed as an issue. He has hundreds of professional and amatuer kickboxing matches, ranging all the way to the championship level.
Betting Odds for
| Bet Available at Betonline.ag | Odds |
| Borshchev Money Line | -180 |
| Bush Money Line | +155 |
| Over 2 ½ Rounds | +115 |
| Under 2 ½ Rounds | -145 |
Neither fighter has much of a betting history, though Borshchev was the underdog against Duncan. Expect Slava Claus to come in underrated for many of his early UFC bouts. I see Borshchev as another Giga Chikadze, flying under the radar and vastly underrated by oddsmakers time and again.
Final Betting Pick
I see Borshchev running through Bush with ease. Take the -180 for a $0.56 per dollar wager win on a kickboxing champion who spends every day surrounded by the best featherweight and lightweight grapplers in the game.
Joseph Holmes vs Jamie Pickett
Our Middleweight match up brings the inconsistent Pickett up against a fighter fresh from a DWCS win in Holmes.
Tale of the Tape for Holmes vs Pickett
| Fighter | Joseph Holmes | Jamie Pickett |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 26 | 33 |
| Height | 6’4’’ | 6’2’’ |
| Reach/Stance | 80’’ Orthodox | 80’’ Orthodox |
| Record | 7-1 | 12-6 |
| Submissions/TKO in UFC | 1/0 | 0/1 |
Both fighters have extraordinary reaches and are tall for middleweights. Holmes is younger, and appears more athletic overall.
Betting Odds for Holmes vs Pickett
| Bet Available at Betonline.ag | Odds |
| Holmes Money Line | -140 |
| Pickett Money LIne | +120 |
| Over 1 ½ Rounds | -205 |
| Under 1 ½ Rounds | +165 |
Holmes has been the favorite for his last five bouts including two LFA wins and a Fury FC appearance.
Pickett has been the underdog in six of his UFC and DWCS bouts. He won as a favorite over Pati at -116, and upset Staropoli at +187.
The under looks good for this bout, but there’s no telling if Holmes can run through Pickett, we haven’t seen him facing UFC level competition.
Final Betting Pick
I’ll side with the oddsmakers for a Holmes win. He’s athletic and on a winning streak. Pickett is struggling to hold a spot in the UFC, and both the fighter’s he’s beaten have been cut. Take the -140 payout of $0.71 per dollar wagered on the UFC’s newest finisher on a six fight winning streak.
Charles Rosa vs TJ Brown
Rosa has won and lost every other fight for the last eleven fights. Tj Brown is now 2-2 in the UFC after beating Kai kamaka by a narrow decision. These two fighters are still rallying for position in a stacked lightweight division.
Tale of the Tape for Rose vs Brown
| Fighter | Charles Rosa | TJ Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 35 | 33 |
| Height | 5’9’’ | 5’9’’ |
| Reach/Stance | 69’’ Switch | 72’’ Switch |
| Record | 14-6 | 15-8 |
| Submissions/TKO in UFC | 2/0 | 1/0 |
These two grapplers are evenly matched, with Brown gaining a slight reach and experience advantage.
Betting Odds for Rosa vs Brown
| Bet Available at Betonline.ag | Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager |
| Rosa Money Line | +210 |
| Brown Money Line | -250 |
Rosa fluctuates between the underdog and favorite status. He upset Kevin Agular as a +180 but lost against Minner as the favorite. Brown has done the same, losing as the favorite twice but winning his last bout as a +142 underdog.
Final Betting Pick
I see Rosa’s streak continuing. He’ll beat Brown at +210, confounding odds makers yet again, and lose his next fight instead. Roas is the better grappler, with a better average takedown defense. Expect Brown to look aggressive but Rosa to come out on top. This is my first money line underdog fighter of the night.
Andre Fialho vs Michel Pereira
This fight has betting odds still available but has been moved to UFC 270.
Make sure to get a good look at it on the next card!
Kevin Croom vs Brian Kelleher
In our opening bout of the evening, Croom is being fed to Brian Kelleher. I don’t want to bet early, so I’ll be looking for ways Croom can take the upset victory.
Tale of the Tape for Croom vs Kelleher
| Fighter | Kevin Croom | Brian Kelleher |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 34 | 35 |
| Height | 5’11’’ | 5’6’’ |
| Reach/Stance | 73’’ Orthodox | 66’’ Switch |
| Record | 21-13-0, 1 NC | 23-12 |
| Submissions/TKO in UFC | 0/0 | 3/2 |
| Fighter Training Camp | Glory MMA | Long Island MMA |
Kelleher gives up the majority of natural advantages on paper, including experience. Glory MMA is also a more proven school than Long Island MMA, boasting more fighters total.
Yet Croom’s fight performances say otherwise. He was smashed by Caceres in their 2021 meeting. His first fight in the UFC was deemed a no contest due to cannabis use, despite a guillotine win.
Betting Odds for Croom vs Kelleher
| Bet Available at Betonline.ag | Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager |
| Croom Money Line | +255 |
| Kelleher Money Line | -305 |
Croom was the underdog against caceres, and an even bigger +450 underdog versus Roberts, whom he finished in two rounds. In his time at Bellator and LFA, he racked up three upset victories.
Kelleher has won four of his last six. His last time at underdog was a +180 loss to Ricky Simon. For the most part, Kelleher follows the oddsmakers predictions. He hasn’t upset a fighter since Renan Barao in 2018.
Final Betting Pick
Caceres is a top fifteen fighter, and Kelleher’s performances have faded since the Barao win. I see Croom taking home a decision or submission victory in a hard fought battle with Kelleher. Croom hasn’t had enough flights for the stats to matter, so this call falls under the category of ‘a good hunch.’ Pick Croom at +255 for a 2.5 times payout on your wager.
UFC Vegas 46 Wrap Up
For their first show back, UFC is showcasing UFC newcomers alongside fighters turning around losing streaks. The main event is easily the most exciting fight on the card, but often the most exciting fights are between athletes trying to solidify a future inside the promotion.
Top Finishes From #UFCVegas46 Fighters ?
[ #UFCVegas46 | Saturday | Prelims 4???? | Main Card 7???? LIVE on @ESPN ] pic.twitter.com/0ioWK05hES
— UFC (@ufc) January 15, 2022
I would think the UFC would put their finishers on this card to remind us what we’ve been missing, but I’m predicting a slew of decision wins. Perhaps the UFC thinks we’ve been so starved, we’ll appreciate whatever they put together, offering their more patient and methodical fighters the stage for a starved audience.
