UFC Vegas 47 Betting Picks, Latest Odds and Full Card Preview

Strickland Vs Hermansson UFC Feb 5

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Hermansson is on for February 5th, 2022 and we’ve assembled our top betting picks on each fight, the latest betting odds and prop betting analysis, as well as each fighter’s stats for the show.

This is found under most of the top betting sites as UFC Vegas 47, and will pit UFC contenders Sean Strikland vs Jack Hermansson.

This fight is loaded with Middleweight top twenty UFC fighters, including five middleweight matchups that will determine the future of Israel Adaysanya’s title defenses. 

Jack Hermansson vs Sean Strickland

In our main event of the evening, Strickland returns to hopefully continue his five fight winning streak. Hermanson lost a title fight opportunity versus Vettori as a +115 underdog,  and defeated Edmen Shahbazyan at -132 favorite status last may. 
Strickland has been working with Sam Alvey at Syndicate, a Middleweight fighting later on the card. 

Tale of the Tape for Hermansson vs Strickland

Fighter Jack Hermansson  Sean Strickland
Age 33 30
Height 6’1’’ 6’1’’
Reach/Stance 77’’ Orthodox  76’’ Orthodox 
Record 22-6 24-3
Submissions/TKO in UFC 3/3 1/3
Fighter Training Camp Frontline Academy  Syndicate MMA

On paper, these two fighters are quite similar, but their finishing percentage sets them apart. Hermansson has one less UFC bout than Strickland, but three more total finishes. 
Strickland is 11-3 in the UFC, compared to Hermansson’s 9-4. So Hermansson’s finishing rate among wins is 66% and overall it’s 46%, compared to Strikclands 36% finishing rate of wins, and 28% overall. 

Comparing Fighter Teams

Strickland now trains alongside Usman and other top tier champions. Syndicate is one of the best MMA gyms in the country. Frontline, formerly Hellboy MMA, is a Norway based academy with around a dozen active fighters with Hermansson and the PFL’s Marthin Hamlet as the only two notables. Syndicate should be the better training environment overall. 

Betting Odds for Strickland vs Hermansson

For more detailed betting odds on props, check out our main event betting pick. 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager 
Strickland Money Line -205, $0.49
Hermansson Money Line +175, $1.75
Over 4 ½ Rounds -130, $0.77
Under 4 ½ Rounds  +100, $1.00

Strickland takes the favorite position, while Hermansson plays underdog for the fifth time in his life. The Over/Under is set at 4 ½ Rounds, pointing to a high likelihood of a long fight and a decision victory. 

Strickland vs Hermansson Betting Odds History

Hermansson has seen underdog status five times total, but only twice times in the UFC. He was a +185 against Souza, a fight he won via unanimous decision with ease. He lost to Marvin Vettori at +115 via decision in a fight that I believe will mimic the Strickland bout to some degree. 
Strickland fluctuates highly, seeing -400 and +245 in his last eight fights. His last loss was via headkick from Eilzeu Dos Santos at -119, so he’s no stranger to an upset. 
Strickland has won five fights straight, ranging from +110 to -400. 

Over/Under for Strickland vs Hermansson

Hermansson has seen three decisions in his last five bouts, losing once via knockout in the second round, and winning via first round submission. Hermansson has also never seen championship rounds in the UFC, and this is his first five round fight. Against those outside of the top ten, Hermansson is a finisher, but Strickland has shown good submission defense, and mimics some of Edmen Shahbzyan’s jab heavy stand up striking. 
Strickland’s last five fights are similar; finishing two of his last five via knockout in the second round, and seeing three decisions. It’s a tough call, but If I were to bet the Under 4 ½ Rounds prop, I’d instead bet Strickland in Round 2 via TKO, KO or DQ. This prop brings +1100 and is the only real outcome I see happening before the final scorecards. 

MMA Style Breakdown for Strickland vs Hermansson

This fight comes down to two deciding factors: Strickland’s jab and Hermansson’s takedowns. 
Hermansson showed minimal ability to manage the snappy stand up of Edman Shabazyan, and Strickland’s jab is similar in method and speed. Hermansson stand’s square, and his style is centered around his double legs, but the footwork is a bit too stiff to manage both good striking and good grappling. His takedown accuracy gives him 1 in every 3 attempts. 
Strickland’s takedown defense is 82%, far higher than Hermansson’s last three wins. 

Hemansson Opponent Takedown Defense Stats

Fighter  Sean Strickland Edmen Shahbazyan Marvin Vettori Kelvin Gastelum Jared Connonier Jacare Souza
Takedown Defense % 87% 57% 76% 62% 62% 57%
Win/Loss TBA Win Loss Win Loss Win

Strickland’s defense is higher than any fighter Hermansson faced to date. I believe he’ll often find top position off Hermannson’s attempts, and Jack will struggle to score any rounds at all. 
Our pick is Sean Strickland at -205, and I’ll be playing it safe, but the points spread prop could be right for a slightly more lucrative bettor. 

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Nick Maximov vs Punahele Soriano 

Another Middleweight matchup pits Maximov vs Soriano. Neither fighter is inside the top fifteen yet, but either of them have the potential. Maximov is undefeated and 2-0 in the UFC, while Soriano is coming off his first ever loss. 

Tale of the Tape for Maximov vs Soriano

Fighter Nick Maximov Punahele Soriano
Age 24 29
Height 6’0’’ 5’11’’
Reach/Stance 76’’ Southpaw 72’’ Southpaw
Record 7-0 8-1
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/0 0/2
Fighter Training Camp Nick Diaz Academy Xtreme Couture 

Soriano comes in far older and a bit smaller than the rising star Maximov. However, Soriano has shown more UFC level finishing power. Outside of the UFC Maximov has a string of submissions and KO wins, but in the UFC, he’s had some narrow wins via control points. 
In his last fight, he was out-struck in significant strikes 2:1, but won via takedowns and pot shotting ground strikes. Brundage landed 59 strikes to his 84, giving up four takedowns and 9:51 of control. 
Nick Diaz Academy is fairly new, taking some of the original Stockton crew with them. Couture has solid grappling work, it’s hard to believe that a Nick Diaz ran facility would produce better grappling than Xtreme Couture, where many of the best MMA wrestlers have come from. I see Maximov struggling with Soriano’s sprawl and ring craft for takedown defense.

Betting Odds for Maximov vs Soriano 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager 
Maximov Money Line +160, $1.60
Soriano Money Line -185, $0.54
Over 1 ½ Rounds -160, $0.63
Under 1 ½ Rounds  +130, $1.30

Maximov is the underdog for the for the first time in his career, opening at +145 and falling to +160. 

Betting Odds History for Maximov vs Soriano

Maximov has three fights on record, His DWCS appearance at -390, and wins over Cody Brundage and Johnny James at -125 and -220 respectively. 
Soriano was the underdog against the undefeated Dusko Todorovic at +150, and promptly knocked the rising star unconscious. He was the favorite in all other bouts, ranging from -111 to -333. He lost his last bout as a -110 favorite. 

Fight Breakdown and Prediction for Maximov vs Soriano 

UFC stats for both fighters are fairly unreliable. They’re both new fighters, and haven’t faced significant challenges inside the UFC yet. Maximov is especially untested. Soriano’s 100% takedown defesne is a boon, especially against a fighter who’s primarily a grappler and who’s lost stand up exchanges in both UFC and DWCS level bouts. 

Nick Maximov’s Grappling Bouts

One concern for Maximov better is his grappling quality. He’s lost five of his last seven professional grappling matches, including losses to Pires, Weisgram and Joe Baize. While it’s no small feat to beat any of this men, it lets us know that he still has growing room in terms of world class grappling, and the right level of grappler will simply escape or defend his BJJ with ease. 
Maximov’s ground striking is his greatest ability. This will be the first fight of his career that will test his chin at some point in the bout. 

Soriano’s Striking Power

If you’re not up to the level of Soriano’s kickboxing, he will land strikes. Brendan Allen did a good job defending and maintaining outside range, but Punahele will be inviting Maximov in close. Punahele does get tired, but even while exhausted, he defended Allen’s takedown attempts very well. 
Maximov has the tendency to drop his right hand while stepping forward into shots. This is a massive defensive weakness against a southpaw with crisp, short left hands. 
When Soriano lands cleanly, expect it to change Maximov’s forward aggressiveness. 
Our bet is Punahele Soriano at -185. I see a ducking left cross leading to an early knockout or a long, tentative night for Nick Maximov. 

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Chidi Njokuani vs Marc-Andre Barriault

Marc-Andre is in the midst of a comeback after a rough three fight losing streak to start his UFC career. Now he faces Chidi, a welterweight fresh off a DWCS win via knockout. 

Tale of the Tape for Njokuani vs Barriault

Fighter Chidi Njokuani Marc-Andre Barriault
Age 33 31
Height 6’3’’ 6’1’’
Reach/Stance 80’’ Orthodox  74’’ Orthodox 
Record 20-7 13-4-0, 1 NC 
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/1 0/1

Njokuani may have the longest reach in the current Welterweight division, six inches over his opponent. Njokuani is slightly older and more experienced. Barriault has one finish in his six fight UFC career after an overturned TKO win over Oskar Piechota. 

Betting Odds for Njokuani vs Barriault

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager 
Njokuani Money Line +106, $1.06
Barriault Money Line -126, $0.79
Over 2 ½ Rounds -175, $0.57
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +145, $1.45

Due to Barriault’s three fight winning streak puts Njokuani as the underdog. I’m unconvicned of this ranking. Njokuani struggled in Bellator, particularly on the ground. He’s lost two Bellator bouts on the ground, and a decision that was driven by his inability to manage cage takedown defense. Njokuani tends to come in the underdog in fights he loses, such as Carvalho at +110 and John Salter at +210. He upset Mario Sousa at DWCS coming in at +106. 

Barriault will need to do his best not to turn this into a kickboxing match. Hes been the favorite in the majorite of his wins, coming in the underdog in losses to Jotko and Sanchez at +165 and +144 respectively. 

Prop Betting for Barriault vs Njokuani

The Under 2 ½ Rounds prop feels right. Barriault will either crush Njokuani, dominating from top position, or he will lose a stand up exchange. Njokuani has knockout power, but his ground weaknesses are far to glaring to go the distance. 

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Jason Witt vs Philip Rowe

This welterweight battle shows Witt at 2-2 and Rowe at 2-1. Both fighters have fallen short against journeyman athletes, but Witt has fallen to TKO twice in the UFC. can his chin handle Rowe’s high pace striking and dual UFC knockouts?

Tale of the Tape for Witt vs Rowe

Fighter Jason Witt Philip Rowe
Age 35 31
Height 5’10’’ 6’3’’
Reach/Stance 70’’ Orthodox  80’’ Orthodox 
Record 19-7 8-3
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/0 0/2

This has to be one of the most staggering reach advantages I’ve ever seen. A ten inch reach advantage is significant. Witt is a grappler, averaging six takedowns per fifteen minutes, he’ll have to practically rush Rowe to get inside. 
Rowe has a 50% takedown defense, meaning we’ll likely see Witt’s top position grappling work if he can get in clench range. 

Betting Odds for Witt vs Rowe

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager 
Witt Money Line +100, $1.00
Rowe Money Line -120, $0.83
Over 1 ½ Rounds -155, $0.65
Under 1 ½ Rounds  +125, $1.25

Witt comes in the underdog, matching his win over Battle and his loss to Takashi Sato. Rowe was the underdog in his DWCS win, but has no other odds history to speak of. 
Rowe prefers opponent’s to come to him. His range helps him pick opponent’s apart, and his guillotines and chokes come off sprawls and takedown defnse tactics. 

Fight Prediciton and UFC Betting Pick

I’ll be staying away from the props since both fighters shave unpredictable fight histories. Battle was supposed to put Witt away, and instead he lost a fight of the night war. 
Rowe should win via submission or counter strike off a takedown attempt but it’s a gamble. I think he will spend some amount of the fight on his back, close to half. 
Our UFC betting pick is Phil Rowe at -120. He’s still developing as an athlete, and Witt is an aging UFC fighter with a TKO loss per active year. He’ll probably start out 2022 with his annual concussion. 

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Danilo Marques vs Jailton Almeida 

Jailton is coming off a DWCS upset win, and Marques his first UFC loss via TKO. Both fighters are grapplers primarily, so the UFC is hoping to force them together to negate one another’s wrestling for a scrappy slugfest in journeyman strikers. 

Tale of the Tape for Marques vs Almeida 

Fighter Danilo Marques  Jailton Almeida 
Age 36 29
Height 6’6’’ 6’3’’
Reach/Stance 77’’ Orthodox  79’’ Orthodox 
Record 11-3 14-2
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/0 1/0

If you’re moderately exciting in the UFC, they will find someone similar to you but younger and make you fight them. Almeida has the youth advantage and fights a similar game to Marques. Neither fighter strikes often, but simply bides their time and looks for takedown opportunities and submissions. 

Betting Odds for Marques vs Almeida

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager 
Marques Money Line +340, $3.40
Almeida Money Line -410, $0.18
Over 2 ½ Rounds -115, $0.87
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -115, $0.87

This is a fairly cut and dry match, between two quality grapplers. One is younger with a bit more grappling experience overall, and what appears to be better fundamentals and a stronger gas tank. Without me going deep into the woods on it, bet Almeida and do your best to find a parlay you’re confident to couple the -410 favorite. 

John Castandeda vs Miles Johns

These two Bantamweight newcomers both have a single UFC loss on their record, but have shown finishing power.

Tale of the Tape for Castandeda vs Johns

Fighter John Castandeda  Miles Johns
Age 30 27
Height 5’6’’ 5’7’’
Reach/Stance 71’’ Switch 66’’ Orthodox 
Record 18-5 12-1
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/1 0/2
Fighter Training Camp The Academy, Greg Nelson’s MMA Fortis MMA

Castandela is older, but has a significant five inch reach advantage. His style has been heavily geared toward stand up in his last two bouts, despite having moderate takedown success in his DWCS debut in 2017. 

Greg Nelson’s MMA doesn’t have many high level sparring partners, though Rose Namajunas and other high level fighters make their way through for cross training. Fortis MMA is home to several UFC contenders in multiple weight classes. Fortis offers Johns a significant training advantage. 

Betting Odds for Castandeda vs Johns

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager 
Castandeda Money Line +153, $1.53
Johns Money Line -178, $0.56
Over 2 ½ Rounds -205, $0.49
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +165, $1.65

Castendeda is the underdog despite coming off a knockout win. 

Fighter Betting Odds History

Castandeda lost his only other underdog bout against Nathaniel Wood at +350. His wins over Wineland and Leialoha saw him the favorite at -120 and -140. 
Johns was a force in LFA prior to UFC, never showing as the underdog. He was a -135 favorite in his only loss to Mario Bautista, but has since kept a  -125 to -200 favorite status. 

Prop Bets for Castandeda vs Johns

Johns lost via knockout in the second, and followed up with to third round TKOs in addition to his two decision wins at the start of his UFC journey. 
Castandeda finished his last bout, but saw two UFC decisions prior to that. Both men have a solid chin, and it appears Johns is leaning toward striking long term despite high quality grappling. 
Other props for the bout include Goes the Distance at -150 and ‘Johns inside the distance’ at +215. I don’t have enough information on either fighter to feel confident in a round call or method of victory. 

Fight Prediciton and UFC Betting Pick

Johns has a snappy jab and fantastic striking defense. In his last bout versus Santos, Johns can listen to his coaches in real time. His leg kicks have developed, as have his body shots. He entered the third round as a -1800 live bet against Dos Santos. 
Castandeda has good forward moving aggression but lacks the refinement of Johns kickboxing. Theres no question he has striking power, but against top tier strikers, he’s imply outshined. I’m betting Myles Johns -1.5 Point Spread. I don’t think Castandeda will win a single round, and Myles can easily outstrike him for fifteen minutes. 

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Steven Peterson vs Julian Erosa

This featherweight bout is between fighters with mixed UFC success. Both fighters are 3-4 in their last seven UFC appearances. 

Tale of the Tape for Peterson vs Erosa

Fighter Steven Peterson  Julian Erosa
Age 31 32
Height 5’10’’ 6’1’’
Reach/Stance 70’’ Orthodox  74’’ Southpaw
Record 19-9 26-10
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/1 2/2
Fighter Training Camp Fortis MMA Xtreme Couture, 10th P Las Vegas

Peterson is smaller than the more experienced Erosa. 
Fortis MMA and Xtreme Couture are both very high quality MMA gyms. Neither have current UFC champions, but either could rise to that level in the next few years. 
Erosa has more UFC experience and far more finishes in the UFC. 

Betting Odds for Peterson vs Erosa   

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager 
Peterson Money Line +255, $2.55
Erosa Money Line -305, $0.33
Over 2 ½ Rounds -135, $0.74
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +105, $1.05

Erosa takes a strong lead, opening at -235 and closing at the -300 range. 

Betting Odds History for Peterson and Erosa

Erosa has been the underdog in his last nine bouts. Nobody every expects this guy to win! Ranging from +135 to +575, Erosa has gone 4-5, upsetting Woodson, Landwehr, Jourdain, and Emmers. 

Peterson was the underdog in his last five ranging from +100 to +195. He went 3-2, upsetting Bravo, Hooper and Bessette. Peterson has defeated lower ranked opponents overall. 

Over/Under Prop Analysis for Peterson vs Erosa

Peterson has seen four decisions over his last five fights, while Erosa has seen all finishes (wins and losses), with two falling into the 3rd round. 
Erosa tends to push the pace adn go for broke on both submissions and striking exchanges. I wouldn’t be surprised by a late finish, but I’m leaning toward the Under. 

Fight Prediction and UFC Betting Pick

Erosa has poor takedown defense, but makes up for it with threatening submission work, choking incoming grapplers with D’Arce Chokes and flying knees. Stevenson doesn’t focus on the takedown but will take it when it feel available, averaging two per fight. 
I see Stevenson falling just short of beating Erosa. My only concern is Erosa’s chin. He’s been knocked out four times in the UFC. Stevenson has one knockout, a spinning back fist. These fighters are just outside of prime fighting age, and we can expect that a fading chin is a big issue, especially for a fighter like Erosa who fights three times a year. I’m betting the Under 2 ½ Rounds prop at +100. Erosa forces the action, even if it means being sent to sleep. 

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Mike Trizano vs Hakeem Dawodu

Both of these featherweights have less than stellar wrestling and kickboxing focused styles. We’re looking forward to watching these two cumulative strikers go to decision.  

Tale of the Tape for Trizano vs Dawodu

Fighter Mike Trizano Hakeem Dawodu
Age 30 29
Height 5’11’’ 5’8’’
Reach/Stance 71’’ Orthodox  73’’ Orthodox 
Record 10-1 12-2-1
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/0 0/1
Fighter Training Camp Tiger Schulmann’s MMA Charmpions Creed MMA

Trizano is three inches taller but gives up reach. Neither fighter has a strong camp advantage, though Schulmann’s has produced more MMA fighters overall. 
Trizano took his first loss just two fights ago in 2019, clearly taking the two year lay off to reasses his abilities. 
Dawadu has one KO finish, but it was over Yoshinori Horie in his UFC debut, a fighter that hasn’t made a UFC return. 

Betting Odds for Trizano vs Dawodu

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager 
Trizano Money Line +142, $1.42
Dawodu Money Line -162, $0.62
Over 2 ½ Rounds -205, $0.49
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +165, $1.65

Trizano is the underdog for the fifth time in his career. In the UFC, he was the Underdog against Dawson at +145 and each of his other bouts aside from Chas Skelly, a fight that was cancelled last year. 
Dawodu was the underdog in his last two, going 1-1. He also lost to Danny Henry at -240, so the odsmakers have called Dawodu wrong twice in the last seven fights. 

Prop Betting for Trizano vs Dawodu

Both fighters have seen decisions in three of their last four bouts. Dawodu has seen decisions in five of seven bouts, and his won knockout came late in the third round. I’m feeling fairly confident in the Over 2 ½ Rounds prop. Trizano was an occasional KO finisher outside of the UFC and during TUF, but mostly, he’s a decision fighter. John Gunther has fantastic grpapling and submission work, so I’m less concerned with Dawodu’s ability to get the choke than most. 

Fight Prediciton and UFC Betting Pick

Trizano struggled against athletic powerhous Grant Dawson, but has ran through all other fighters with relative ease. Dawodu isn’t a knockout striker for the most part. He struggles in all wrestling exchanges, and the TUF winner should take the win in deep water. While I feel Trizano can win the fight, I’m going to take the easy win, betting the Over 2 ½ Rounds prop for -205. Play it safe on this one, and only bet Trizano if you’re feeling risky.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!
 

Tresean Gore vs Bryan Battle

In another middleweight battle, Gore makes his UFC debut versus Pooh Bear Battle, a 1-0 fighter that put on a serious pace against TUF finalist Gilbert Urbina in his first showing. Gore injured his knee in TUF and many are calling this bout the ‘Real’ TUF finale between the top two fighter.

Tale of the Tape for Gore vs Battle 

Fighter Tresean Gore  Bryan Battle 
Age 27 27
Height 6’0’’ 6’1’’
Reach/Stance NA 77’’ Orthodox 
Record 4-0 7-1
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/0 1/0
Fighter Training Camp Team Lima, Sanford MMA Modern Warrior MMA, Hayastan MMA 

Tresean is slightly smaller than battle, with many other factors being similar. He trained at Team Lima and Sanford MMA after TUF, alongside multiple top level gyms. Gore has relocated multiple times to pursue his career, while Battle is still at his local gyms in South Carolina. It’s discouraging to see Battle not cross-training, as that’s been the early downfall of many TUF winners early in their UFC appearances. 

Betting Odds for Gore vs Battle 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager 
Gore Money Line -155, $0.65
Battle Money Line +135, $1.35
Over 2 ½ Rounds -105, $0.95
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -125, $0.80

Gore is the favorite, which makes sense given his performances on TUF. Battle struggled against fighters that Gore walked through. Neither fighter has significant betting history. 
The Under feels like the better bet, as Battle wll either find the submission, or Gore will knock him unconscious. I don’t feel strongly about the props, and will be avoiding them. 

Fight Prediciton and UFC Betting Pick

Bryan Battle keeps a very high pace, landing and absorbing six strikes per minute on average. His rate of takedowns is a bit too low for my liking, scoring around one per fight on TUF and in the TUF finale. 
Against Urbina, Gore showed fast footwork for managing range, and intense power. Gore’s head movement is a concern, and he sits still when opponent’s throw combinations. Gore has knockout power, but if Bryan can keep a high striking volume, he may stifle and smother Gore’s power. 
I’m bettin Bryan Battle at +135. I believe his pace will stop Gore from attacking with any significant success. 

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Carlston Harris vs Shavkat Rakhomonov

Both Welterweights are 2-0 in the UFC, scoring two finishes against their competition. It’s tough to tell if one will outshine the other, or these high level journeymen will produce a stalemate. 

Tale of the Tape for Rakhomonov vs Harris

Fighter Carlston Harris  Shavkat Rakhomonov 
Age 34 27
Height 6’0’’ 6’1’’
Reach/Stance 76’’ Orthodox  77’’ Orthodox 
Record 17-4 14-0
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/1 2/0
Fighter Training Camp Renovacao Fight Team Sanford MMA 

Harris comes from a long line of Brazilian scrappers at RFT in Rio de Janeiro. Many RFT fighters are featured in ONE FC and other world wide organization. He’ll have a slight reach and height disadvantage, but any people see him as the better stand up striker. RFT has produced some top level Brazilian style Muay Thai in fighters like Andre Santos who recently defeated the UFC’s Josh Neer in Bellator. 
Shavkat is known as the ‘Nomad’ for good reason. He has no home gym but has trained everywhere from Tiger MT to Sanford MMA including dozens of schools in his home country Kazakhstan. 
Shavkat trained this camp at Sanford MMA alongside Usman and other pound for pound greats. This offers him a significant camp advantage. 

Betting Odds for Rakhomonov vs Harris 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager 
Harris Money Line +205, $2.05
Rakhomonov Money Line -240, $0.42
Over 1 ½ Rounds -140, $0.71
Under 1 ½ Rounds  +110 $1.10

Rakhomonov is undefeated, and an obvious favorite. Collectively, the fighters have four UFC finishes falling into the Under 1 ½ Rounds prop category. 

Fighter Betting Odds History for Harris vs Rakhomonov 

Harris is fairly new to high level fights, and came in as a -189 favorite over Aguilera and a +100 underdog against Impa Kasanganay. Rokhomonov is in a similar boat, with only two fights on record with odds. He was a -139 against Oliveira at his UFC debut and a -300 against Prazeres in his last bout. 

Fight Breakdown and Prediction for Rakhomonov vs Harris 

Rakhomonov has showed aggressive, forward moving striking on a lanky frame. He waits patiently to counterstrike, finding his timing quickly after landing few strikes. His submission skill is undeniable, with Dagastani style cage wrestling with more knees short strikes. Rakhomonov is a Sambo black belt. He was reveresed against the cage by Oliviera before sinking a deep guillotine over Cowboy. In his second UFC bout he demonstrated similar finishing focused striking that lead to an early choke finish from backmount, which felt more like Prazeres simply giving up the finish to escape punishment. 
Harris has fantastic cage grappling and clench work, which could be difficult for Rakhomonov to manage. I also believe his kickboxing is more traditionally technically correct, though Aguilera clipped him with multiple power shots. 
Harris is gifted. His kickboxing has better footwork than Rakhomonov and no one has tested his chin yet in his career. I sense an upset, and I’m betting Carlston Harris at +205 to triple my money at UFC Fight Night. 

Sam Alvey vs Brendan Allen 

Sam is on a viscous skid, losing six of his last seven adn scoring a draw against Da-Un Jung. Allen is a last minute replacement for Phil Hawes. He’s currently 5-2 in the UFC, losing twice via KO. Allen’s chin is in question, but Alvey’s UFC career may be on the line in this bout. 

Tale of the Tape for Alvey vs Allen

Fighter Sam Alvey  Brendan Allen 
Age 35 26
Height 6’2’’ 6’2’’ 
Reach/Stance 75’’ Southpaw  75” Orthodox 
Record 33-16-1 17-5
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/5 3/1Team 
Fighter Training Camp Team Quest  Sanford MMA

Alvey is far older and far more experienced, boasting over double the total fights of Allen. Allen has few finishes inside only seven UFC fights, while Alvey has competed in the UFC 22 times since his debut in 2014. 

Alvey is training at Team Quest, the Henderson camp that at one time produced several UFC champions. Quest was originally ran by Pat Militiche, who no longer is involved fulltime. Allen is another Sanford MMA fighter, one of the top camps in the world. While Sanford has the advantage, Quest is the right place to train to defend the high level wrestling of Allen. 

Betting Odds for Alvey vs Allen

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager 
Alvey Money Line +300, $3.00
Allen Money Line -400, $0.25
Over 2 ½ Rounds -110, $0.91
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -120 $0.83

Alvey is a strong underdog, and has been for his last few bouts, ranging from +140 to Jimmy Crute and +280 in his draw with Jung. Alvey came in at +300 in each possible opponent, though Heinisch and Hawes have both dropped out of the fight. 
Allen was a strong favorite in his loss to Chris Curtis, and hasn’t gotten a takedown in his last two bouts. He was the underdog in his win over Soriano at +110, and the favorite in his loss to Sean Strickland, indicating that oddsmakers are still getting a bead on Allen and his place in the UFC. 

Over/Under for Alvey vs Allen

During his last five fights, Allen has two second round losses both falling inside the 1 ½ Rounds prop. He also has two decisions and a first round submission win. Alvey has a string of losses falling into the under 1 ½ Rounds prop, and four of his last five fights going to a decision. 
It’s tough to tell. Allen is taking the fight on short notice, but says he’s prepared. Meanwhile this is Alvey’s first full camp in over five fights, taking all of them on less than six weeks notice. We should see a different fighter, but it’s a coin toss as to the timing of this bout. 

Fight Prediction and Final UFC Betting Pick

Alvey is an all time great, but I think he’s a bit too weathered for the UFC at this point in his career. He’s looked slow and outpaced by younger athletes. His last match against Wellington Turman was close, and his 80% takedown defense held up, giving up only 2 of 9 attempts by Turman. 
Allen’s downfall is his penchant for submission work over ground strikes. He takes damage opportunities and goes for risky submission finishes instead, as he did against Chris Curtis. Curtis is undefeated in the UFC, with three submission wins. So the real question is, does Alvey fall into the camp of Chris Curtis and Sean Strickland?

Allen’s losses in the UFC have been to top tier, explosive kickboxers. I feel Alvey will fade late, and feel his age against a fighter a decade his younger. 

Our betting pick is Brendan Allen at -400. Let’s see if he opts for a less risky approach against the veteran Alvey. 

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Julija Storliarenko vs Alexis Davis

Both of these fighters have had a tough run in the UFC. Storlianrenko hasn’t won a fight in the UFC, losing three to date. Davis hopes to get a career back on track, going 1-4 in her last five. She was 5-1 in her first six, but has gone 9-7 overall. Davis has beaten Eye, Carmouche and Sabina Mazo, but can’t seem to find a way to climb into the top fifteen. 

Tale of the Tape for Storlianrenko vs Davis

Fighter Julija Storliarenko Alexis Davis 
Age 26 37
Height 5’7’’ 5’6’’
Reach/Stance 70’’ Orthodox  68’’ Orthodox 
Record 9-3 20-11
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/0 1/1

Davis gives up eleven years to Julija. She has far more experience, but very few finishes for a fighter with sixteen UFC appearances. 

Betting Odds for Storlianrenko vs Davis 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager 
Storlianrenko Money Line +205, $2.05
Davis Money Line -240, $0.42
Over 2 ½ Rounds -260, $0.38
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +200, $2.00

Davis is the favorite for the first time in three fights. She hasn’t been the favorite since her fight with Jennifer Maia at -145, a fight she lost by decision. 
Storlianrenko was the underdog in her last two UFC appearances at +142 and +290. I’m assuming youth along is the only factor keeping her from +300 range. 

Prop Betting for Davis vs Storlianrenko

Davis has seen the decision in her last seven bouts win or lose, ranging back to 2017. Storlianrenko has been stopped once, late in the third round of her last bout. I see a decision headed our way. 
Our final UFC betting pick for this bout is the Over 2 ½ Rounds prop at -260. A random, career saving stoppage could be in the works, so I’ll bet lightly on this fight. 

Maclom Gordon vs Denys Bondar

This is Bondar’s UFC debut, while Gordon is 1-2 inside the octagon, losing by both knockout and submission. 

Tale of the Tape for Gordon vs Bondar 

Fighter Malcom Gordon Denys Bondar 
Age 26 29
Height 5’7’’ 5’6’’
Reach/Stance 71’’ Switch  69’’ Orthodox 
Record 13-5 16-3
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/0 Debut

Bondar is slightly older, but these two fighters are very evenly matched on paper. Bondar is on a six fight winning streak outside the UFC including two knockouts and two submission wins. 

Betting Odds for Gordon vs Bondar 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager 
Gordon Money Line +230, $2.30
Bonar Money Line -270, $0.37
Over 1 ½ Rounds -140, $0.71
Under 1 ½ Rounds  +110, $1.10

Over Under Prop for Gordon vs Bondar

Without seeing Bondar against a UFC level opponent, there is no telling how he’ll perform. On the regional level, he looks hurried and aggressive, pointing toward the Under. Gordon went to decision in his only win, but doesn’t carry a pace that makes me think we’ll see an early Gordon finish. 

Fight Prediction and UFC Betting Pick

Gordon is a good striker and a moderate grappler. In the right environment, he may have something. Bondar is a finisher, and I think we may see a repeat of the Amir Albazi fight. I’ll be betting Denys Bondar at -270, and I may even bet Bondar inside the distance, a prop bet at -110 effectively doubling my return.  

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

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Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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