UFC Vegas 48: Walker vs Hill Main Card Betting Picks, and Latest Odds

Walker Hill Red UFC Background

Vegas 48 hosts twelve fights on February 19th, 2022 and we’ve gathered betting coverage on each fight. You’ll see our expert fight breakdown, top betting picks, and fight week’s UFC odds on money lines and prop bets. 

Johnny Walker vs Jamahal Hill at UFC Vegas 48

Both fighters are 1-1 in their last two, and both fighters are exciting knockout artists that do poorly versus grapplers. This evenly matched main event features two fighters who can land knockouts and have been knocked out, making it tough to bet the Over props. This fight is in the light-heavyweight division between #10 Walker and #12 Hill, setting the winner up for a return fight against Reyes or Oezdemir. 

Tale of the Tape for Walker vs Hill 

Fighter Johnny Walker Jamahal ‘Sweet Dreams’ Hill 
Age 29 30
Height 6’6’’ 6’4’’
Reach/Stance 82’’ Orthodox  79’’ Southpaw 
Record 18-6 9-1, 1 NC 
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/4 0/4
Fighter Training Camp SBG Ireland, various UFC Training Facility, Black Lion BJJ, others 
Sub/TKO Losses in UFC  0/1 0/1

Walker is the younger, larger fighter. He’s been in the fight game longer and has seven fights to Jamahal’s six.

Please Note:
Don’t be fooled by the added UFC losses of Walker, he’s only lost to top ten ranked fighters, including #5, #9, and the now Bellator champion, Corey Anderson. 

Jamahal lost to #11 ranked Paul Craig, whose BJJ game overwhelmed Hill’s strengths, finding him with a broken arm and knocked unconscious. 

Comparing Fighter Training Camps

SBG has been Walker’s most recent training facility, though it looks like he’s cross-training with several unheard-of gyms inside Ireland. Since arriving in Las Vegas, he’s worked boxing at Golden Boy Gym. It’s exciting to see Walker prepare his striking defense with quality boxers against a fighter like HIll. 

Hill has been training in Michigan primarily with coaches he doesn’t often talk about.

Our sources tell us he’s at Black Lion BJJ as well as several Chicago MMA gyms. He trains at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. SBG is a tough gym to quantify. They’ve been blamed for the losses of several high-profile fighters, and there are many rumors of severe overtraining. Since the move to SBG from Tristar, Walker has taken a serious step up in competition, going 1-3 over his last four fights. 

Betting Odds and Odds History for Walker vs Hill 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager 
Walker Money Line +210
Hill Money Line -250
Over 2 ½ Rounds
Under 2 ½ Rounds 

Not surprising given his string of losses, Walker is the underdog. Walker has been the underdog in two other UFC fights; his last loss to Santos at +132 and his KO win over Rountree in 2018 at +150.

He’s been a slight favorite in two losses to Krylov and Anderson.

Hill was the underdog for the first time in his career against Crute at +170, winning by knockout in the first round. He was a strong favorite in his loss to Paul Craig at -235. Craig opened at +250 and fell to +225 by the time of the fight, beating Hill at two minutes of the first round. 

Prop Betting Analysis

Hill has had only one decision in the UFC, and it was a win over Darko Stosic. Stosic won six takedowns but gave up seventy strikes to Hill. 

Walker has fought to three decisions in his eight UFC bouts, losing two of them. Krylov and Santos both fought smart fights, refusing to exchange with Walker, and using the groundwork  and body strikes to slow Walker down. 

Walker will occasionally fight smart, looking for the win and not the KO, but Hill consistently pushes the pace. He has so much confidence in his hands ability to put people out, he sees to reason not to move forward and test them. 

I want to buy the Under 2 ½ Rounds prop.

But there is a chance we see a more metered Walker, using conditioning and defensive boxing to exploit some of Hill’s more obvious weaknesses. 

Fight Prediction and Breakdown for

Johnny tested positive for Covid for the second time on January 2nd, though it’s unclear how it affected his training.

Please Note:
He’s been spending lots of time at ABS Powerlifting in Ireland, focusing on strength and conditioning. 

We’re breaking down some past UFC bouts to see if we can spot any style matchups the fighters will exploit. 

Hill vs Paul Craig

Hill switches stance twice before throwing any strikes at all. He only lands one strike throughout the bout, a leg kick. It’s possible he lands one ground strike as well in the chaos. Craig pulls guard and works a submission clinic on Hill, it’s not something We’re going to see from Walker, who is good at BJJ but historically hasn’t centered his fights around it. 

Walker vs Thiago Santos, Corey Anderson

Santos is tentative against Walker, and for good reason. He lands only 44 strikes total, four less than Walker. Looking at the round stats, it’s clear that Walker won the fight overall, but Santos wins three rounds of the five-round fight. 

When Walker was finished by Corey Anderson, it was because of ground work.

Corey wins an early takedown, landing 76% of his strikes on the ground and in the clench against the cage. Hill rarely shows this kind of striking from various ranges. In fact, it’s Walker who’s thrown more significant strikes from the clench. 

UFC Vegas 48 Betting Pick

If Walker is insisting on a stand-up battle with Jamahal, it’s going to be a tough night. Hill has strong striking, and a willingness to go for broke. He’s never had a fight go to decision in his career, and Walker’s chin is suspect. He’s been stunned a number of times. I’m expecting the Under Prop to payout, with Hill as a likely victor. 

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Jamie Pickett vs Kyle Daukaus

Both of these middleweights are just outside the top fifteen. Daukaus’ last bout was ruled an NC after an early headbutt and is now 2-2, 1 NC in the UFC from his debut in 2019 until now, a lackluster three-year span. 

The Night Wolf is on a two fight decision winning streak after a knockout loss to Jordan Wright last May. It was the first time in Pickett’s career that he’d been knocked out, but he has lost via submission twice. 

Tale of the Tape for Pickett vs Daukaus 

Fighter Jamie ‘The Night Wolf’ Pickett Kyle Daukaus 
Age 33 28
Height 6’2’’ 6’3’’
Reach/Stance 80’’ Orthodox  76’’ Southpaw
Record 13-6 10-2, 1 NC
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/1 0/0
Fighter Training Camp Hit Pit MMA, Port City Performance Martinez BJJ 

Daukaus has more fights outside of the UFC, racking up a quick pool of eight first round submissions. This submission work hasn’t gone unseen by the UFC, with an average of 1.9 attempts per fight. Pickett is a brown belt in BJJ, but he has been submitted outside the UFC and in it by Charles Byrd at DWCS. Byrd submitted two more DWCS and UFC fighters, then went on a three fight TKO losing streak. 

Daukaus is a massive southpaw, but has mostly been unable to utilize that reach.

Even in his wins, he’s landing less than 50% of his strikes at a distance, and prefers to clinch and ground strike. Against Pickett’s 80’’ reach, I don’t blame him. Pickett will be looking to play the outside and take a page out of Sean Strickland’s book; looking to spend the whole fight with a jab and counter wrestling combination. 

Comparing Fighter Camps

I’m still skeptical of Martinez BJJ. they’ve brought us the Daukaus brothers, and not much else. The Daukaus brothers have no UFC level sparring partners, no striking coach separate from their BJJ coach, and no world class recovery coaches on staff. 

However, Picket isn’t much better. He’s training at gyms that have failed to produce high level sparring for him. He works occasionally with John Salter, and hopefully that should remove the risk of submission in this bout. 

This is a very short notice fight for Pickett, who’s recent training footage has been filled with weightlifting posts. I worry about Pickett’s cardio conditioning. 

Betting Odds and Odds History for Pickett vs Daukaus 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager 
Pickett Money Line +220
Daukaus Money Line -260
Over 2 ½ Rounds -175
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +145
Daukaus Inside the Distance  +200
Fight Doesn’t go the Distance  +115
Fight Goes the Distance  -145

Pickett has been the underdog even in his last two winning decisions at +162 over Holmes and +187 over Staropoli. This isn’t new territory for Pickett, he’s been the favorite only twice in the UFC, losing both times. 

In Daukaus’ last two he was the favorite at -165 and the underdog at +155, losing one fight definitively, and the Kevin Holland match ending via NC headbutt. In both Daukaus UFC wins he was a -250 and -260 favorite.

Pickett is a long shot here. His wrestling defense is 68%, and Daukaus is 85%. He will seek takedown exchanges and he will win them. Daukaus also gets hit less often at 2.6 absorbed per minute. Compare that to Pickett’s 4.17, a stat slightly offset by his 120 strike beating from Tafon Nchukwi. 

Prop Bet Analysis

Daukaus has only seen decisions in the UFC, while Pickett has only won decisions. The concern against the Over 2 ½ Rounds bet is that Daukaus will finally see his submission skill work come into play. 

Please Note:
Pickett’s submission losses seemed closely related to his conditioning. With this fight coming in on short notice, it’s likely that Pickett could crumble in the second round or beyond, offering an early finish. 

I like the bet Daukaus inside the distance, but I’m not convinced a money line on Daukaus isn’t the better bet. 

Fight Prediction and Breakdown for Daukaus vs Pickett

Daukaus presented good shootboxing against Allen, driving him to the cage with ease. Allen landed a knee early in the fight that offered Allen mount, and Daukaus was still able to escape and finish the fight competitively, even winning rounds and taking Allen’s back late in the fight. 
I’m looking for that kind of perseverance from Pickett. 

Pickett has displayed much faster hands.
His knockout win over Jhonoven Pati showed us that Daukaus can not simply wait for the exchange, he has to stay defensive especially when attempting the takedown. 

No one has attempted a takedown heavy game plan against Pickett since his loss to Punahele Soriano, giving up three takedowns. Daukaus will win the wrestling with ease and I think it will offer him the fight. 

Our betting pick is Kyle Daukaus at -260.

He’s the better takedown artist and his full training camp should offer him several opportunities to win. 

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Parker Porter vs Alan Baudot 

Porter is 2-1 in the UFC after winning back to back decisions over Sherman and Parisian. He faces Baudot, who experienced his first two career losses via knockout in his UFC debut and follow-up fight. Baudot was a knockout machine outside of the UFC, finishing seven of eight opponents. 

It’s tough to get a handle on Baudot.

One of his submission losses at TKO 47 was overturned for an absurd 100 nanograms of THC, essentially nit-picking the victory to save Baudot’s undefeated status. Baudot’s last loss to Nascimento is also contested, but not yet technically overturned since Nascimento tested positive for the diuretic derivative ritalinic acid. This is a common supplement taint, especially in pre-workouts made overseas. Basically, Baudot has been propped up significantly, and the hype is hitting the fan. 

Tale of the Tape for Porter vs Baudot 

Fighter Parker Porter  Alan ‘The Black Samourai’ Baudot 
Age 36 33
Height 6’0’’ 6’3’’
Reach/Stance 75’’ Orthodox  79’’ Orthodox 
Record 12-6 8-2, 1 NC 
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/0 0/0
Fighter Training Camp Thorton’s MMA MMA Factory Paris 

Baudot is the younger, bigger fighter. Porter has more MMA experience, but clearly, more losses outside of the UFC. 

Porter is small for a heavyweight, and at 6’0’’ it is a concern. He’ll need to fight his way to the inside against a knockout striker. 

Comparing FIghter Camps

MMA Factory is the former home of Francis Ngannou and the current home of Gane. Baudot has plenty of top tier sparring partners at the heavyweight level to work with. MMA Factory’s BJJ has been improving.

Justin Thorton has produced UFC fighters like William Knight, but is struggling to keep up with Porter and it’s highest level fighters.

Thornton is a black belt, and Porter is a brown belt in BJJ under Thorton. I give Baudot the training advantage overall, but Thorton is still a developing gym and we could see more from them in the future. 

Betting Odds and Odds History for Porter vs Baudot 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager 
Porter Money Line -260
Baudot Money Line +220
Over 1 ½ Rounds -165
Under 1 ½ Rounds  +135
Goes the Distance  +175
Doesn’t Go the Distance  -215

Baudot has been the underdog twice running coming into UFC Vegas 48, losing at +500 and +355.

Oddsmakers feel the Porter fight is closer.
Porter has been the underdog in three UFC appearances ranging +110 to +200, winning two bouts as the underdog.

He had mixed success in CES and Bellator as both favorite and underdogs from 2012 to 2019. 

Prop Bet Analysis

Porter is an obvious favorite with his two fight winning streak, and he’s won twice via decision.

Please Note:
I don’t think Baudot has a glass jaw, he’s just had the misfortune of fighting back to back killers. Aspinall won with ground strikes and strikes landed off the stand up, Rodrigo won in the second round, inside the Under 1 ½ Rounds prop.

 
I’m not unconvinced Baudot doesn’t have a lucky punch in him. Porter has been knocked out before, at Bellator 98 and to Jon Jones back in 2008. 

Fight Prediction and Breakdown for Porter vs Baudot

Porter’s performance against Sherman showed a fighter that was at times looping, but a patient fighter who was able to win top position several times.

Porter was measured and unafraid in his last few bouts, showing a kind of high-level striking experience that’s rare at heavyweight. Baudot looked to land jabs early against Nascimento, including winning strikes against the various takedowns of Nascimento.

 

Once Nascimento began to land, Badot’s face looked different and his body language changed. This is clearly a fighter that has issues under pressure. 

Our betting pick is the safe choice, Parker Porter at -260.

I like the ‘Fight Doesn’t go the Distance’ prop bet as an alternative at -215, but I believe Porter to be the better fighter with more skill in the exchange. 

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Jim Miller vs Nikolas Motta

Miller, one of the most prolific UFC fighters, returns after going 2-2 over his last four. He faces Motta in his second UFC debut after a successful decision win at DWCS in 2020, then he was invited onto The Ultimate Fighter Brazil Season 4.  Some fifteen months later Motta will get the opportunity to fight in the UFC against an aging submission specialist. 

Tale of the Tape for Miller vs Motta 

Fighter Jim ‘A-10’ Miller Nikolas ‘Iron’ Motta 
Age 38 27
Height 5’8’’ 5’9’’
Reach/Stance 71’’ Southpaw  70’’ Orthodox 
Record 33-16, 1 NC  12-3
Submissions/TKO in UFC 10/5 0/0
Fighter Training Camp Miller Brothers MMA, Sussex MMA  Relson Gracie, Damian Maia, Various teams

Miller is eleven years older than his opponent, and carries with him a huge number of UFC finishes. Miller has as many UFC finishes as Motta has fights total. 
The Motta reach shouldn’t play much of a role. Miller fights to the inside constantly, and will be looking for grappling top position throughout.

Comparing Fighter Camps

Miller Brothers has been Jim’s camp for seven years, amassing a 7-6 record since making the switch to running his own camps. Motta has been on the move, training at multiple world class BJJ and MMA schools across Brazil and the US, most recently UFC Apex Training Center, offering a home field advantage for UFC Vegas 48. I’m a big fan of fighters taking on the nomad role early in their fight careers, and find that those who can maintain this role longest show the best outcome. 
I give a slight training advantage to Motta. 

Betting Odds and Odds History for Miller vs Motta 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager 
Miller Money Line +155
Motta Money Line -180
Over 2 ½ Rounds +100
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -130
Miller by Submission +350
Motta by KO, TKO  +210
Miller inside the Distance  +265

Miller is the underdog despite recent -250 win over Gonzalez. He lost against Pichel and Solecki as the underdog at +110 and +220, but defeated Roosevelt Roberts at +225 via first round armbar.

Even after nearly thirty UFC bouts, oddsmakers struggle with Miller.

Motta was the underdog at +100 when originally scheduled to fight Miller in 2021, and defeated his DWCS opponent Joe Lowry at -190 in 2020. 

Prop Betting Analysis

Many of Motta’s wins outside of the UFC are via TKO, but so are several of his losses. He went 1-1 on TUF, losing via choke to Glaico Franca, which isn’t on his official record, he’s also lost via guillotine choke.

I’m betting the Under 2 ½ Rounds as one of the better props, but Miller inside the distance looks good. Not only does it pay far more, Miller hasn’t been finished since he fought the champ, Charles Oliviera in 2018.

Miller’s ringcraft and submission work make his victory a better bet than the newcomer, despite their eleven year age gap. 

Fight Prediction and Breakdown for Miller vs Motta 

Miller’s striking was highlighted in his last bout against Erick Gonzalez where after two rounds, Miller finished Gonzalez with a knockdown and subsequent TKO. 

Motta’s striking is powerful, but still looping and unrefined.

After observing his reaction to good defensive boxing tactics, I find that this is a really bad fight for Motta. 

In a rare moment of confidence:
I’m going with a long shot prop bet, Jim Miller inside the distance at +265.

He’s the more experienced fighter by a mile, and still has some years left in the tank. 

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Joaquin Buckley vs Abdul Razak Alhassan

In an exciting Middleweight matchup, Buckley is back against Alhassan, another knockout artist. All five of Buckley’s UFC appearances have been TKO’s, win or lose. Alhassan has only lost via decision outside of his brush with Khaos Williams in 2020, where he was knocked out with five strikes total. 

Tale of the Tape for Buckley vs Alhassan 

Fighter Jaoquin ‘New Mansa’ Buckley Abdul Razak Alhassan 
Age 27 28
Height 5’10’’ 5’10’’
Reach/Stance 76’’ Southpaw 73’’ Orthodox 
Record 13-4 11-4
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/3 0/5
Fighter Training Camp Xtreme Couture, varied  Team Elevation
UFC Losses Via TKO 2 1

Joaquin has a nice three inch reach advantage that can mean the world for a southpaw with a strong left straight. This is allegedly the first bout that Buckley has ever been able to train full time for, finally leaving his job at Walgreens to exit Saint Louis. 

Alhassan has far more UFC bouts, going 5-4 overall. His biggest losses have been to wrestlers like Malkoun, Lazzez and Akhmedov who took him down 18 times total across just three fights.

Buckley has only two UFC takedown successes across five fights. 

Comparing Fighter Camps

Elevation has performed moderately in the past few years.

Alhassan left Syndicate for elevation in late 2021, so his time at the camp may have been only for the past eight weeks. Buckley has been cross-training, touching base with Syndicate including Alhassan’s former training partners.

I feel Buckley has an advantage, both in cross training and in scouting old coaches of Alhassan. 

Betting Odds and Odds History for Buckley vs Alhassan

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager 
Buckley Money Line -164
Alhassan Money Line +144
Over 1 ½ Rounds -105
Under 1 ½ Rounds  -125

Adbul has been the underdog for two fights in a row for the first time in his UFC career. He was the +215 underdog in his upset of Alessio Di Chirico last August, opening it up with a fight-ending head kick and Knockout of the Night. Outside of these two bouts, Alhassan was the favorite even in his four losses, spanning back to 2016. 

Buckley was the underdog to Holland, losing at +380 in his debut. He also lost as a -262 favorite to Chirico in January 2021. Buckley has only fumbled once as the favorite, including in Bellator. 

Prop Betting Analysis

The under captures four of Buckley’s UFC fights. His last bout went to the third round. Alhassan’s only been knocked out once, thirty seconds into the first round. However, the majority of his opponent’s have been takedown artists. 

Both men can be finished, both want the finish early, and neither have the defensive capacity to do an Izzy Adesanya and avoid damage for multiple rounds.

 

The only reason you’d bet the over is because you think Buckley’s time at Xtreme Couture has offered him a new found ability to wrestle effectively. I’ve seen no training footage evidence of this. 

Fight Prediction and Breakdown for Buckley vs Alhassan

Both fighters absorb more punches than they land. There is no such thing as a guaranteed banger, but this is as close as it gets. I don’t doubt one of these men will get knocked out, my only concern is if they’ll show up gun shy and we see a round three TKO. 

I’ll be betting the Under 1 ½ Rounds prop at -125. It pays out better than the Buckley money line, which is my second choice. Buckley is more dynamic, faster, and has a higher rate of strikes landed per minute by .4 strikes.

Alhassan is yet to fight a UFC level southpaw fighter, and this often adds to the rate of exchanges and left-side strikes landed. 

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

UFC Vegas 48 Main Card Wrap Up

Walker vs Hill seems like it would be the most likely bout for a finish on the main card, but there are three fights that I think we’ll see solid finishes in.  

This may prove to be one of the more exciting cards of the year in terms of action

Despite many criticizing the card for not having enough big name fighters. If you’re new to MMA betting, and need a better understanding of my prop picks, start here

Sub Categories:
Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.