UFC Vegas 49 Green vs Makhachev Full Card Preview and Betting Picks

Makhachev Vs Green UFC Feb 26 Sat

We’ve gathered our top betting picks for UFC Vegas 49 Makhachev vs Green. Each fight includes the stats, our top bets, and a short breakdown of our top betting pick, as well as the odds on money lines and prop bets. If you’re looking to paraly our top fights with other MMA shows through the weekend, start with this Bellator 275 breakdown

Islam Makhachev vs Bobby Green

For our full coverage and betting pick for this fight, check out our main event betting breakdown.
Makhachev is a fighter on the rise, and Green will need his best octagon showing to date in order to beat him.  

Tale of the Tape for Green vs Makhachev

Fighter Bobby ‘King’ Green  Islam Makhachev 
Age 35 30
Height 5’10’’ 5’10’’
Reach/Stance 71’’ Orthodox  70’’ Southpaw
Record 28-12-1 21-1
Submissions/TKO in UFC 3/2 5/1
Fighter Training Camp Pinnacle MMA AKA

The biggest difference is the five year age gap. The finishes are close, but remember that Makhachev has racked up those finishes across just eleven fights, compared to Green’s 22 (UFC and Strikeforce.) 

Expect Green to be looking to win rounds and Makhachev for the early finish. 

Betting Odds and Odds History for Green vs Makhachev 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager 
Green Money Line +550
Makhachev Money Line -900
Over 2 ½ Rounds -110
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -120

Lines have moved since our betting pick, and Makhachev is now a massive favorite. Our betting pick was Makhachev, but if you’re not interested in small wins or a parlay, I’d consider the Under 2 ½ Rounds prop at -120 for a $0.83 payout per dollar wager. 

Can Green Upset Makhachev?

In short, I don’t see how. Green’s grappling in the UFC has him defending three of every four attempts against mid tier UFC fighters. Makhachev is in the top five for a reason, and I see this bout crushing Green’s takedown defense metrics if it goes on too long. Green’s counter punching style needs for you to engage him. Makhachev will sit barely outside of range, draw you out and then wrestle when you make a response. 
I see everyone coming to the realization of just how far the gap between the top five and the top twenty really is. 

UFC Vegas 49 Main Event Pick

Bet Makhachev for a clear winner and look to the Under 2 ½ Rounds for better payouts. Makhachev would have beaten Dariush, and his shot at the title isn’t too far behind, probably early 2023. 

Misha Cirkunov vs Wellington Turman

In our co-main event betting pick we have two UFC middleweight fighters looking to retrack their career. Both men have been former top fifteen fighters, and both men have lost over four UFC bouts since 2017. 

Tale of the Tape for Cirkunov vs Turman

Fighter Misha Cirkunov  Wellington ‘The Prodigy’ Turman 
Age 35 25
Height 6’3’’  6’0’’
Reach/Stance 77’’ Orthodox  72’’ Orthodox 
Record 15-7 17-5
Submissions/TKO in UFC 5/1 0/0
Fighter Training Camp Tiger Muay Thai, Xtreme Couture, Various Teixeira MMA, UFC Performance Institute

Cirkunov has the height, reach and UFC finishing percentage in his favor. He gives up a decade of youth to Turman, who’s last win was over the aging Sam Alvey. 

Circunov has the better training environment. Traveling is the best way for older fighters to inject life into their game. Wellington is a long-time Teixeira fighter, a gym with only one major UFC fighter, their coach and champion Glover. 

Betting Odds and Odds History for Cirkunov vs Turman  

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds 
Cirkunov Money Line -115
Turman Money Line -105
Over 1 ½ Rounds -170
Under 1 ½ Rounds  +140
Goes the Distance ‘No’  -165
Cirkunov by Submission +250
Turman by Points  +300
Cirkunov by Round 1 Submission  +650
Turman by Round 1 TKO, DQ +900

Turman was the favorite in his win over Alvey at -112, and again over Perez at -152. Cirkunov Has been the underdog in his last two losses, but upset Jimmy Crute at +100. 
The under is a good bet if you’re considering an early Cirkunov submission. Glover, Turman’s coach, caught Cirkunov early and knocked him out, but that was more of a lightning in a bottle finish- I don’t see Turman doing the same. 
If Turman can come out and swing for the fences, he can be the fifth UFC fighter to knock Cirkunov out in the first round. 
I’d steer clear of any round bets on Cirkunov, he has submission wins across all three rounds. 

Fight Tape, Stats and Betting Pick

Circunov is looking for the takedown. He’s got an average of 4.4 per fight. Turman has never been taken down, defending all of the attempts made against him. I see Cirkunov struggling to finish any takedowns, and I doubt his striking has evolved despite his time at Tiger Muay Thai. 

Cirkunov vs Spann

Cirkunov is winning this fight early. He’s landing strikes and winning exchanges. The truth is, he’s just too old. Cirkunov has been knocked out again and again, and at 35 it’s taking its toll on his chin. Even after two years off, Cirkunov’s chin could only take a couple of hits before dropping him. 

UFC Vegas 49 Betting Pick

Turman is younger and willing to win decisions. Cirkunov is aging, and will struggle for the takedown. I see a Turman TKO or decision win, but I’m betting the money line at -105 for a $0.95 payout per dollar wager. 

Ji Yeon Kim vs Priscila Cachoeira 

Priscila has struggled in the UFC, getting two knockout wins and listing four other bouts. She faces 3-4 in the UFC Ji Yeon Kim, who’s last bout with Molly McCann was fight of the night. Neither fighter has ever attempted a takedown in the UFC, it is very likely we’ll see a high volume kickboxing match. 

Tale of the Tape for Kim vs Cachoeira 

Fighter Ji Yeon Kim ‘FireFist’ Priscila ‘Zombie Girl’ Cachoeira 
Age 32 33
Height 5’7’’ 5’7’’
Reach/Stance 72’’ Orthodox  65’’ Orthodox 
Record 9-4-2 10-4
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/1 0/2
Fighter Training Camp Syndicate MMA  Academia Team Figueiredo 

Kim has a seven inch reach advantage but less total UFC knockouts. Syndicate is a great gym for a defensive striker, while Cachoeira is training at one of the better fight camps in Central America alongside multiple contenders. 
Kim’s reach advantage and Cachoeira’s power advantage will both play a role in the fight. 

Betting Odds and Odds History for Kim vs Cachoeira

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Kim Money Line -165
Cachoeira Money Line +145
Over 2 ½ Rounds -200
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +160
Fight Goes to Decision -185
Fight Doesn’t Go to Decision +150
Kim by Points +135
Cachoeira by Points +300
Cachoeira by TKO, DQ +450
Kim by TKO, DQ +525

Coachoeira is the underdog, as she was in bothe wins over Mazany at +213 and Dobson at +170. She’s been the underdog in each UFC bout. Kim is the favorite, and has been the favorite in two of her three other wins at -175 and -170. She was a +140 underdog in her win over kish.

Prop Betting for Kim vs Cachoeira

The over is only a 2:1 favorite. The takedown is the only thing stopping either of these fighters from getting TKOs in every bout, so I’d think the knockout would be a little more relevant. The Under is at +160, just ten points above the fight doesn’t go to decision prop. 
Kim by points is a good bet. I don’t see Cachoeira going out any time soon, but Kim is probably the better striker, especially considering her reach advantage. 

Fight Tape and Betting Pick

Looking at the fighters each of them has defeated, Justine Kish is the top of the food chain. In reality, neither of them have demonstrated striking that feels dominant at a UFC level. I see size winning this fight. Looking at their performances against Molly McCann, you see how much Kim can simply bully Cachoeira in striking exchanges and inside the clench. I expect Kim to win by exhausting Cachoeira, not through any measure of technical striking. Our betting pick is Ji Yeon Kim at -165, a narrow win by the larger fighter. 

Arman Tsarukyan vs Joel Alvarez

One of the tallest 155 pound fighters takes on one of the shortest. Alvarez carries an eight inch height advantage. Both fighters are on a four fight winning streak after losing their UFC debut in 2019. 
The biggest difference between them is that Alvarez is a finishing machine, two knockouts and two submissions across his last four wins. 

Tale of the Tape for Tsarukyan vs Alvarez 

Fighter Arman ‘Ahalkalakets’ Tsarukyan  Joel ‘ El Fenomeno’ Alvarez 
Age 25 28
Height 5’7’’ 6’3’’
Reach/Stance 72’’ Orthodox  77’’ Orthodox 
Record 17-2 19-2
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/1 2/2
Fighter Training Camp Lion Heart Moscow  Centro Deportivo Tibet, La Jungla, Bandog Fight Club

Arman is the younger, smaller fighter. He’s struggled to finish opponent’s like Matt Frevola and Davi Ramos, but in both bouts he defeated them with 3:1 striking and many takedowns, including ten over Frevola alone. 
Alvarez is training at multiple locations across Spain, recently receiving his brown belt in BJJ from Bandog Fight.  

Betting Odds and Odds History for Tsarukyan vs Alvarez

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds 
Tsarukyan Money Line -225
Alvarez Money Line +190
Over 2 ½ Rounds -105
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -125

Tsarukyan is the favorite, despite his disadvantages. The over is a good bet if you believe Arman will win. It pays more than his money line and Alvarez hasn’t been finished in the UFC. Does Tsarukyan have finishing power? Yes, but demonstrating it against Alvarez, a fighter that has blown through his last four, including Thiago Moises, seems unrealistic. 

Fight Stats and Betting Pick

Our biggest concern for Alvarez is takedown defense, which is currently at 0%. You read that right. Every attempt at a takedown has served up a success. Now, in classic BJJ fashion, he’s turned two of those takedowns into submission wins, so Armen will have to be careful. 
Armen’s strategy is a simple one, win control time, win rounds and win the fight. Alvarez will need to finish to win, there’s no doubt in my mind. 
I think he can do it, so I’ll be betting the Under 1 ½ Rounds prop at -125. I’m protected against upsets knockouts from Tsarukyan, and I’m banking on a Joel Alvarez finish. 

Armen Petrosyan vs Gregory Rodrigues

Both fighters are new to the UFC and both have knockout power. Rodrigues sports significantly better grappling, and shows up as the favorite. 

Tale of the Tape for Petrosyan vs Rodrigues 

Fighter Armen ‘Superman’ Petrosyan  Gregory ‘Robocop’ Rodrigues 
Age 31 30
Height 6’3’’ 6’3’’
Reach/Stance 71’’ Orthodox  75’’ Orthodox 
Record 6-1 11-3
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/1 0/1
Fighter Training Camp Magomed Daliev, ATT  Sanford, Vagnar Rocha MA, others 

Both fighters have been cross training at various world class facilities. Rodrigues’s time at Vagnar Rocha’s leads me to believe he may be employing some submission work or ground strategy against Petrosyan. 
Rodrigues has a four inch reach advantage, two inches more than Kolev, Petrosyan’s last opponent. Petrosyan is dropping down from 205, and it’s unclear how much that weight class played into his inability to manage Kolev’s takedown game. 

Betting Odds and Odds History for Petrosyan vs Rodrigues

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds 
Petrosyan Money Line +145
Rodrigues Money Line -165
Over 1 ½ Rounds -115
Under 1 ½ Rounds  -145
Rodrigues by Points +550
Rodrigues by KO, DQ  +190
Rodrigues by Submission +325
Petrosyan by KO, DQ +165
Goes the Distance ‘no’  -350
Goes the Distance ‘yes’  +275

Both fighters were the favorite in their last UFC fight. Rodrigues upset undefeated Dusko Tordorovic at +144 last June. Interesting that Petrosyan by KO is a lower payout than all other methods of victory, despite his underdog status. 

The props don’t offer much, with the under 1 ½ Rounds and ‘goes the distance’ props showing a favorite status for a knockout. Usually in these situations I bet the Over. There’s no guarantee these guys will show up to finish one another. 

Rodrigues was knocked out in his DWCS debut, but that felt like more of a slip than anything.

Fight Tape and Betting Pick

Petrosyan’s wrestling doesn’t look great historically. He gives up the first takedown attempt in his bout with Dmitry Minakov in 2020. His one loss is a knockout, just happening to catch him clean in 2021. 

I see Rodrigues collecting early takedowns and a possibility of seeking the submission early, based on his choice of training methods. Our betting pick is Gregory ‘Robocop’ Rodrigues 

Money line at -165, a $0.61 payout per dollar wagered. 

Rong Zhu vs Ignacio Bahamondes

Another set of UFC lightweights are looking for their place in the division. Zhu is 1-1 while Ignancio is 2-1 with two head kick TKOs. 

Rong Zhu is the better grappler, racking up nine takedowns in two fights, while Bahamondes sports a 100% takedown defense stat. 

Tale of the Tape for Zhu vs Bahamondes 

Fighter Rong Zhu Ignacio Bahamondes 
Age 21 26
Height 5’9’’ 6’3’’
Reach/Stance 71’’ Orthodox  75’’ Orthodox 
Record 18-4 12-4
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/1 0/2
Fighter Training Camp American Top Team Florida  Valle Flow Striking 

Ignacio is a much larger lightweight and will tower over Zhu. Zhu will be working to close the distance and wrestle, catching his last TKO against the cage during an opponent stand up attempt. 

Zhu leads in experience, in particular grappling expertise. ATT is more of a BJJ centered school, and many of the VFS fighters in Chicago find other BJJ or grappling gyms to cross train with. Expect Ignacio to have the clear advantage standing and Zhu to win the ground exchanges. 

Betting Odds and Odds History for Zhu vs Bahamondes

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Zhu Money Line +170
Bahamondes Money Line -200
Over 2 ½ Rounds -160
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +130
Bahamondes by Points +165
Zhu by Points  +375 
Ignacio ​​Bahamondes by Round 1 TKO +400
Goes the Distance ‘No’  -105

There are seven betting markets for this fight, including a whole market of round betting we’ve skipped, opting to show our favorite bets. 

Zhu has been the favorite in his 1-1 UFC run at -200 and -210. Ignacio was the favorite in his loss to Makdessi at -191. And the underdog in his win over Roosevelt Roberts at +147. He upset two opponents in his LFA/Combate run from 2019 to 2020. 

Prop Betting for Zhu vs Bahamondes

With half of their fights finishing and the other half going to decision, there’s no real way to determine who will get the finish or when. Bahamondes has never been taken down, and if he can continue that streak over Zhu, I’m confident he’ll finish the fight. I’m more interested in the ‘Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance’ prop at -105 at $0.95 per dollar wagered payout. 
It’s better than Bahamondes money line, and both fighters come to finish. Since they’ve only lost by decision in the UFC, that’s a tough bet to place. 

Fight Tape and Betting Pick

Zhu controlled Brandon Jerkins with ease, finishing the bout with a collection of a dozen ground strikes that were very well placed. Bahamondes took out Roosavelt Roberts with a kick after dismantling his stand up. Both fighters are finishers, so we’ll study their weaknesses. 

Ignacio Bahamondes Fight Tape

Roberts did get Ignacio to the fence, and continued to grapple after he recognized Ignacio’s striking was so much higher level. The VFS system is truly too much for other coaches to keep up with. Roberts attempts to pull guard to lure Ignacio in, and the head kick isn’t until well into the third round, a spinning heel kick. 

Kazula Vargas vs Rong Zhu

It’s Vargas who ends up taking Rong to the floor, powering through him in the clench. Vargas wins the striking exchanges as well as the grappling ones, giving up a bit of control time but not much else. 

Our final betting pick is Ignacio Bahamondes’ money line at -200. I can see him winning a decision with his jab alone. I think Zhu will get takedowns, but nothing substantial. Don’t bet on any Zhu finishes, he’s still young and needs a couple years to mature into a contender. 

Josiane Nunes vs Ramona Pascual 

This bantamweight breakdown shows the exciting new knockout fighter Nunes against Ramona Pascual in her UFC debut. Pascual is a submission fighter from Hong Kong who exploded onto the international scene with her 2022 win over Shamir Peshewa via first round TKO. 

Tale of the Tape for Nunes vs Pascual 

Fighter Josiane Nunes  Ramona Pascual 
Age 28 33
Height 5’2’’ 5’7’’
Reach/Stance 67’’ Southpaw 66’’
Record 8-1 6-2
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/1 0/0
Fighter Training Camp Striker’s House Syndicate MMA

Nunes is closer to her prime, but gives up five inches of height to Pascual. Their records are similar, with Pascual losing to 145 pound fighters Janay Harding and Jennifer Norris. Nunes’ one loss was to Talia Santos in 2013. Talia is now a 19-1 UFC contender. 
Striker House is a Muay Thai centered school that has developed an MMA program, similar to Tiger Muay Thai. Nunes is their only UFC level fighter. 
Pascual moved to Syndicate just a few years ago and we were unable to locate her original training facility in Hong Kong. 

Betting Odds and Odds History for Pascual vs Nunes 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds 
Pascual Money Line +175
Nunes Money Line -205
Over 1 ½ Rounds -140
Under 1 ½ Rounds  +110
Nunes inside the Distance  -270
Nunes by Points  +400
Nunes by KO +100
Pascual by Points +400
Nunes by Round 1 TKO  +325
Fight Goes the Distance ‘No’  -180

Because of her stellar first round performance in August, Nunes is a heavy favorite. However, Pascal is a larger fighter, dropping from featherweight. She’s going to engage in grappling with Nunes and we really don’t know what Nunes looks like defensively. She was threatened with no takedowns by Malecki, but one look at Pascal’s record and you’ll get a sense of her grappling focus, one that will only be highlighted by time at Syndicate MMA. 

Prop Bet Analysis

Ramona’s last three have been first round finishes. She keeps a high pace and looks for takedowns off the opening bell. 

Nunes has ended every fight by knockout except her one loss, which was also a stoppage.

While Nunes in round one/two has a fine payout, the real bet to make is ‘fight doesn’t go the distance’ prop bets, paying out at $0.56 per dollar wagered or -180. 

Both fighter’s fight footage is limited. It doesn’t take an analyst to see this is a battle of finishers. Pascual will either be exhausted from the weight cut and give up an early knockout, or we’ll see a top level submission game get lorded over a Muay Thai striker. 

Terrance McKinney vs Fares Ziam

These UFC lightweights are still earning their keep. McKinney is 1-1 in the UFC while Ziam is 2-1. Ziam doesn’t lack excitement, but he lacks takedown defense. McKinney will look to score takedowns if the time is right, but analysts are expecting a kickboxing match between these two. Tale of the Tape for McKinney vs Ziam

Fighter Terrance McKinney Fares Ziam 
Age 27 24
Height 5’10’’ 6’1’’
Reach/Stance 73’’ Switch 75’’ Orthodox 
Record 11-3 12-3
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/1 0/0
Fighter Training Camp Warrior Camp, UFC Apex Sanford MMA 

Ziam is younger and far bigger than McKinney. They have similar levels of experience. 

McKinney’s claim to fame is his fastest knockout in the UFC lightweight division ever. He was slept because of his aggressive style against Sean Woodson. 

McKinney has talent, and is now exploring UFC Apex and other UFC training facilities to see where to take it. Warrior Camp is good, but it’s not a top tier school. Meanwhile, Sanford MMA is one of the top training facilities in the nation. 

Expect Ziam to have a clear game plan for how to deal with the power and aggression McKinney brings to the table. 

Betting Odds and Odds History for Ziam vs McKinney

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds 
Ziam Money Line -121
McKinney Money Line +101
Over 2 ½ Rounds +125
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -155

Ziam was the underdog in his last three UFC bouts, upsetting Mullarkey and Vendramini at +120. McKinney was the strong favorite in his loss to Woodson and the underdog in his win over Frevola. Oddsmakers are still getting their sites set on these two champions. 

The Under is a favorite, with McKinney either falling asleep or knocking out anyone he faces. The Over looks like a decent bet considering Ziam’s three decision bouts in a row. The kid has a knack for going the distance. 

Fight Tape and Final Betting Pick

Ziam is a K-1 Champion and McKinney’s striking will be tested early. Kickboxers often get used to using the gloves to defend, pressing together a high guard. Sanford is exactly where you’d want Ziam to be to put together a game for MMA. 

Ziam vs Mullarkey

Ziam’s snappy jab and leg kick exchanges leave room for haymaker overhands, which feels shocking given his kickboxing experience. Ziam showed high level BJJ that offered him significant ground striking opportunities. 

Expect McKinney to rush in and for Ziam to do an awful lot of circling away and toward the cage. He’ll look to wear on McKinney with leg kicks in the first and second rounds. 

McKinney Fight Tape

McKinney has a very strong straight right hand but his weakness is the pull counter. It’s something that I could see after only a few pieces of footage, and I know the Ziam camp will see the same thing. Our betting pick for UFC Vegas 49 is Fares Ziam Money line at -121. This kickboxer will repeatedly put McKinney on the back foot, forcing clench work that he will ultimately lose. I hope to see McKinney at a full time fight camp within the year. 

Alejandro Perez vs Jonathan Martinez

This bout is between two knockout strikers who’ve struggled to find their place in the featherweight division. Perez has been with the UFC since 2014, and after fighting only once last year, this is his third fight since July 2019. Compare that to Martinez, who’s having his seventh fight in that same time frame. It’s clear the younger Martinez has the momentum going into Saturday night. 

Tale of the Tape for Perez vs Martinez

Fighter Alejandro Perez Jonathan Martinez 
Age 32 27
Height 5’6’’ 5’8’’
Reach/Stance 67’’ Orthodox  70’’ Southpaw
Record 23-8-1 14-4
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/3 0/2
Fighter Training Camp AKA Factory X 

Perez is older and smaller than his counterpart, racking up double the finishes with five more years in the UFC. Perez has lost two of his last five, once by TKO and once by decision. Martinez is also 3-2 over his last five, losing by KO to Davey Grant last March. 
Perez is a long time AKA fighter, working with many of the best grapplers and wrestlers in the world. Martinez made the recent switch from New Breed MMA to Factory X, where he will join multiple UFC level fighters. The move to Factory X and the bump in ability it will bring him give Martinez a mild advantage. 

Betting Odds and Odds History for Perez vs Martinez

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds   
Perez Money Line +205
Martinez Money Line -240
Over 2 ½ Rounds -165
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +135
Goes the Distance ‘Yes’ -155
Martinez by points  +125
Perez by Points +375
Goes the Distance ‘No’  +125
Fighter Wins inside the Distance- Martinez +200

Perez was the underdog in his loss to Yadon Song at +185 and Staman at +160. The oddsmakers last mistake in Perez predictions was against Luri Alcantara where Perez won a +160 upset in 2017. 
Martinez upset Zviad in his last bout at +100. He out struck the favorite 3:2 overall. He was the underdog in his win over Thomas Almeida and the -300 favorite in his loss to Davey Grant.

Prop Bet Analysis

Three of Perez’s last five and two of Martinez’s last six ended before the 2 ½ Round mark. It doesn’t give me confidence in the under, and these two striking centered fighters may be happy to exchange and find out who’s the better kickboxer. Perez has finished two takedowns in his last four fights, while Martinez finished none, so ground finishes are on the table for Perez as demonstrated against Eduardo, but overall unlikely. 
If I were to select a prop bet I like ‘Goes the Distance, No’ at +125. These fighters have finishing power, but Martinez is picking up momentum against the aging Perez, who appears to have met his prime in his 2015 to 2018 UFC run. 

Betting Pick for UFC Vegas 49

Our betting pick is the favorite, Jonathan Martinez at -240. He’s the better striker and the younger athlete. Factory X is going to make him even better than we’ve ever seen before. Perez is a great fighter who’s seen better days in the UFC, and can find a second life in the promotion by playing gatekeeper, not climbing the ranks. 

Ramiz Brahimaj vs Michael Gillmore

Our first welterweight bout is between two exciting finishers that have struggled at the UFC level. Brahimaj is 1-2 in the UFC, and Gilmore is 0-1. We had high hopes for the Fortis MMA fighter, and said that Ramiz would beat McGee in his last match up. He lost via unanimous decision. Gilmore also lost to Gilbert Urbina on TUF as an exhibition match, but is receiving another chance because he’s exciting. 

Tale of the Tape for Brahimaj vs Gilmore 

Fighter Ramiz Brahimaj  Michael Gillmore 
Age 29 34
Height 5’10’’ 5’11’’
Reach/Stance 72’’ Orthodox  72’’ Orthodox 
Record 9-4 6-4
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/0 0/0
Fighter Training Camp Fortis  Simon’s Academy of Wrestling, Murcielago MMA 

Brahimaj is a submission centered fighter, and gives up knockout power to Gilmore. Gilmore switched to Simon’s after he lost two fights in a row via grappling-once to ground strikes and another by submission. 

Brahimaj will look to take Gilmore down early and avoid his striking altogether. Gilmore is still swinging for the fences, and has no advantage in reach to help him avoid a clench. 

Betting Odds and Odds History for Brahimaj vs Gillmore 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Brahimaj Money Line -360
Gillmore Money Line +285
Over 2 ½ Rounds +130
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -160
Brahimaj by Points +275
Brahimaj by Submission  -125
Gillmore by TKO, DQ +625
Ramiz Brahimaj -3.5 Points -250
Ramiz in Round 1 +140
Ramiz in Round 2  +500
Gilmore in Round 1 via TKO +1800

Gilmore’s odds history includes +450 losses to Petroski and no other notable bouts. Ramiz opened as a +100 against McGee, and a +125 against Max Griffin, losing both matches as the underdog. He beat Sasha Palatnikov as a -159 favorite last August. 

Gilmore’s money line value just isn’t there. I see him getting closer to +400 in this fight. 

Prop Bets Available

The under 2 ½ Rounds prop reflects many of their collective performances. Both fighters have been stopped in the first half of the fight, and both fighters keep a pace that reflects a hunt for the finish. I’d steer clear of the over props as well as the method of victory ‘by points.’ My top two picks in the props are Brahimaj by submission at -125 or Ramiz Brahimaj -3.5 points spread- a bet that includes any finishes and a unanimous decision. 

How is Gillmore’s Submission Defense?

Against both Petroski and in TUF, Gilmore was taken down. 

In the Petroski bout at Middleweight, Gilmore was taken down on the first attempt in ninety seconds. He made it to the second round, and Petroski did it again on the third attempt. Petroski exploited a massive weakness in Gillmore, but he also landed significant shots against Petroski. 

I see Gillmore giving at least one takedown to Ramiz each round. 

Ramiz Brahimaj has scored 8 of his 9 Wins by Submission

Seven of those fights were in the first round. Fortis MMA should have his striking evolving in preparations with Gillmore. Expect better striking defense and shoot boxing for Ramiz. Our UFC Vegas 49 betting pick is Ramiz Brahimaj at -360, a $0.28 per dollar wager payout. 

Victor Altamirano vs Carlos Hernandez

Betting on this flyweight matchup offers three markets, including method of victory and round betting calls. The Over/Under is set at -180 Over 2 ½ rounds with both fighters winning DWCS decisions in their last fight. Carlos won via upset at +105, while Victor was a slight favorite. 
Equally matched, Altamirano and Hernandez have one loss outside of the UFC, though Victor’s was to UFC standout Jared Brooks. 

Tale of the Tape for Altamirano vs Hernandez 

Fighter Victor Altamirano  Carlos Hernandez
Age 31 28
Height 5’8’’ 5’8’’
Reach/Stance 70’’ Switch 67’’ Switch
Record 10-1 7-1
Career Submissions/TKO  5/1 4/0
Fighter Training Camp Peak Performance Valley Fighting Systems Academy 

These fighters are very similar on paper. Hernandez has the better striking coaching at VFS, where he learns alongside Yair Rodriguez and a growing list of UFC contenders. Peak Performance is a school out of Watauga, South Dakota with no high level professionals other than Victor, though some fighters have reached the LFA level. 

Both fighters are submission oriented, with Victor blazing through local LFA competition. His first three fights were against debuting opponents and his only real tests have been Jarred Brooks, Nate Smith and his DWCS fight with Candelario. 

Carlos had a similar experience but his toughest bouts were against Trevor Wells and Daniel Barez. In my opinion, Victor has faced better opponents in every regard. 

Betting Odds and Odds History for Altamirano vs Hernandez

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Altamirano Money Line +120
Hernandez Money Line -140
Over 2 ½ Rounds -180
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +150
Goes the Distance ‘Yes’ -170
Altamirano vby Points  +200
Hernandez by Points +165
Carlos inside the Distance  +265
Draw  +6600

Altamirano has betting odds ranging from +109 to -164, upsetting two LFA fighters Nate Smith and Lloyd McKinney. Hernandez won an upset victory in DWCS at +105 and took out his last LFA opponent at -155. 

Altamirano is the underdog, and I think that’s due to having a more recent loss. The prop bet ‘goes the distance’ looks wise, considering both fighters are heavily submission oriented and went to decisions in their toughest bouts. 
Altamirano lost to Jarred Brooks via choke in the second round. Oddsmakers may be considering this as foreshadowing of what another bout with a high level grappler will look like, but I think they’re selling Victor short. 
I would recommend the ‘by points’ props for either fighter’s method of victory, but this isn’t the fight to method call unless you understand both fighters’ past fights far better than the average analyst. 

Fight Tape Analysis and Betting Pick

These fighters are evenly matched. Altamirano shows good striking in his LFA 73 showing in 2019, so we can assume he’s evolved significantly since his DWCS fight last year. I see a late finish for Hernandez or decision that could go either way. Our UFC Vegas 49 betting pick is the Over 2 ½ Rounds prop at -180. 

UFC Vegas 49 Wrap up

If this breakdown had anything that threw you off, check out our guides for more MMA knowledge. Vegas 49 is a great example of a show with not enough information. Many of the fighters were new, debuting or had losing UFC records. This makes the matches competitive, but not always exciting to bet on. Look for winners you’re confident, but still find a way to spread your ticket out over as many bets as possible. 

Sub Categories:
Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.