Week 14 NFL Betting Recap: What We Learned

NFL Betting Recap - The Miami Miracle Week 14

If you were trying to win money betting on the NFL last week, my condolences. It was not the easiest week to sort through and when it was all said and done, we saw seven teams stage an upset for the second consecutive week.

These weren’t just some mild +110 upsets, either.

Miami did this, people:

To that, I ask, what is going on?

I mean, I can grasp a Dolphins upset over the Patriots in Miami. It’s not something that’s never happened before. But to do it like that is pretty unbelievable.

Rob Gronkowski being on the field is arguably why that play finished in the endzone. He was out there to defend a hail mary…from 70 yards away. Really?

Yeah, so that was just one ridiculous happening in pro football this past week. There were many more absurd things. Like three touchdowns from Amari Cooper or 210 receiving yards from George Kittle.

And six more teams won games Vegas didn’t think they would. For the second week in a row.

Let that all sink in as you take a look at the week 14 NFL results:

Week 14 NFL Results

Matchup SU Winner ATS Winner Total
JAX vs. TEN Titans (30-9) Titans (-5.5) Over 37
ATL vs. GB Packers (34-20) Packers (-4) Over 50.5
NYJ vs. BUF Jets (27-23) Jets (+4.5) Over 37
NYG vs. WAS Giants (40-16) Giants (-3) Over 40
NO vs. TB Saints (28-14) Saints (-9.5) Under 54.5
NE vs. MIA Dolphins (34-33) Dolphins (+9) Over 49.5
BAL vs. KC Chiefs (27-24) Ravens (+6.5) Over 48.5
CAR vs. CLE Browns (26-20) Browns (+1) Under 48
IND vs. HOU Colts (24-21) Colts(+4) Under 49
DEN vs. SF 49ers (20-14) 49ers (+3) Under 45.5
CIN vs. LAC Chargers (26-21) Bengals (+16.5) Under 48.5
DET vs. ARI Lions (17-3) Lions (-2.5) Under 40
PHI vs. DAL Cowboys (29-23) Cowboys (-3.5) Over 45.5
PIT vs. OAK Raiders (24-21) Raiders (+10) Under 51
LAR vs. CHI Bears (15-6) Bears (+3) Under 51
MIN vs. SEA Seahawks (21-7) Seahawks (-3) Under 45.5

So, Derrick Henry was mad and stuff.

He bullied the Jaguars on a 99-yard touchdown run and finished his week 14 performance with over 200 rushing yards and four total scores.

Henry’s angry and he wants the Titans in the playoffs, it seems. I’m not entirely sure they get there, but I wouldn’t bet against Henry playing well over the next few weeks.

I don’t know what the big takeaway is from that Falcons vs. Packers game. I definitely did not expect Atlanta to lie down like that, while the Packers popping off for 34 points in what was basically a blowout was also shocking.

Don’t look now…
But Green Bay actually has a slim chance at the playoffs. They need to win out and have Minnesota lose two more times, but considering two of their final three games are against the Bears and a seemingly decent Miami team, it’s not impossible.

Speaking of the Dolphins, they just pulled off a miracle. Are we supposed to shrug that off, or do we need to take them seriously as a playoff threat now? I still can’t do it, but I’ll be pulling for them to take out the Vikings and keep things interesting for the six seed in both conferences.

This year’s rookie quarterback crop is all of the fun. Sam Darnold was clutch, Josh Allen was fast, Baker Mayfield has some moxie and Lamar Jackson sure can run. None of them will be guiding their respective teams to the playoffs, but they’re sure fun to monitor.

Mayfield has the best shot at this point and if Cleveland wins out…

While some middling teams are clinging to unrealistic hopes, there are others that are free falling out of playoff contention. The Browns are working toward something greater in 2018, but it’s going directly against the Panthers, who they beat in week 14.

Carolina once looked like a viable Super Bowl contender. After five straight losses and the Saints on the docket twice to close out the year, it’s worth wondering if they’ll even win again in 2018.

The same can be said for the Bengals. Jeff Driskel gave the Chargers all they could handle, but he’s only one man. Cincinnati has plummeted after a hot start and Marvin Lewis is probably finally on his way out of town. But hey, good effort.

If anything, the Bengals playing hard might have exposed the Bolts a bit. But let’s not cast judgment on the Chargers who clearly just escaped a trap game against a hungry loser. We’ll find out for sure what L.A. is made of when they face the Chiefs for the second time on Thursday Night Football.

Speaking of Los Angeles, what was that, Rams?

Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams Stopped by Chicago

Jared Goff was abysmal and Todd Gurley was shut down. That was a truly horrific effort in a huge game in Chicago and suddenly home field reverts back to the Saints in the NFC.

Did Chicago expose a blueprint to beat the Rams? Are the Bears (gulp) actually the new favorite in the NFC?

Maybe and perhaps, but if the road to Super Bowl 53 runs through New Orleans, I won’t be betting against Drew Brees and the Saints.

This is a weird season, though. I find myself also drawn to the Cowboys and Seahawks, both of which can control the clock on the ground and play sound defense. Regardless of where they end up playing, they both look like teams nobody wants to go up against in the playoffs.

Lastly, what the heck, Steelers? That is all.

Week 14 Stats – Year to Date

Wager Type Week 5 Year-to-Date
Underdogs vs. Favorites ATS 9-7 106-91-8
Home vs. Away ATS 9-7 102-95-8
Over/Under Record 7-9 100-108
Straight Up Underdog Wins 7 72

There wasn’t anything truly scathing about week 14 in the sports betting world. Except, you know, all those freaking upsets.

We’ve seen this many underdog wins four times in 2018 now, but it’s still crazy when it happens and it’s even weirder when it happens in consecutive weeks. But I told you that after week 13; as the season wears on teams get tired and/or hurt and bad teams just leave it all on the field.

The best teams get wins and lock up divisions and seeding, but there’s only a handful of those in each conference. Then you have the Steelers, Patriots, Rams, and Texans, just pooping all over the place this past week.

What’s the damage?
Oh, nothing. Just the top seed in the AFC, the top seed in the NFC, a first-round bye and possibly a trip to the playoffs.

Every team has different reasons to play each week and when you start combining all of the important factors (incentive, health, home/away) the picture clears up a bit.

Nothing else really stood out here. The underdogs, home/away splits and over/under were all pretty much right down the middle. You might want to start favoring the Under, though, seeing as it’s only getting colder, teams are only getting more mangled and Vegas continues to set unrealistic expectations for a lot of teams.

Just keep an eye on how games are priced. You don’t want to bet the Under just for the sake of defying the top NFL betting sites. I mean, you do, but you don’t.

Looking to Week 15

If you’re still with me after this two-week long roller coaster, then let’s proceed with caution heading into week 15. The 2018 NFL regular season is coming to a close and we have just three weeks to capitalize on sweet spreads, totals, and moneylines.

It’s a constantly evolving beast, but it’s one that will be sorely missed in less than a month. Boy, does it go fast.

Going into week 15, I’m looking for the teams that have something to play for, are offering insane value and/or need to bounce back in a big way.

You can look at teams that are trying to snap nasty losing streaks. I’m not actively betting on the Bengals, Panthers, and Falcons to win, but even the worst teams do win eventually.

Instead, I actually dig the Cardinals at their +345 price tag. It’s mostly about their insane moneyline and Atlanta losing five in a row, but hey, that’s not nothing.

Here are a few games that will drive even the most confident sports bettor crazy this week:

  • Patriots vs. Steelers
  • Cowboys vs. Colts
  • Chargers vs. Chiefs

File those under whaaaaat?

Yeah, I don’t really know where to go there.

My gut instinct suggests the Steelers are slowly crawling into their own grave, while Bill Belichick dropping two losses in a row twice in the same season just isn’t fathomable.

Dallas hasn’t been great on the road this year and Indy can’t afford to lose, either. I’d take the Colts at home and while the Chargers are fun to root for, they’ll probably fall just short in KC. At least they still feel like a lock to make the playoffs.

Here’s to the chance to go 0-3 against the Chiefs this year, right Chargers fans? Yeah!

Teams I feel are locks to win this week are the Bears, Saints, Seahawks, and Texans.

A dangerous amount of week 15 NFL games are very tough to call. My hope is some of what we learned last week helps us correctly bet on games this week. But I try not to be a prisoner of the moment too much, so don’t lean on week 14 or anything that already happened too much.

Just look at each team, what’s at stake, where they’re playing and how they match up in week 15. If you do that, usually good things come of it.

Either way, hopefully this look back at week 15 was fun, informative or at the very worst a nice recap. If it helps you win in week 15 somehow, all the better. Thanks for reading and good luck with your week 15 NFL bets!