Who Has the Best Chance to Win NFL MVP?

Mahomes And Rodgers MVP

Still unsure on who to place a bet to win NFL MVP?

Today’s post will discuss the players who have the best odds to win one of the NFL’s most coveted awards. A previous post discussed dark horse candidates, so today’s post will talk up players that we all know, their odds of winning, and what makes them a good (or not so good) bet.

Are you ready to learn more?

Patrick Mahomes: +600

Mahomes is naturally the top pick for NFL MVP. And since he has led the Kansas City Chiefs to 3 straight AFC Championship Games and 2 straight Super Bowls, he’s arguably the Tom Brady of the era.

Although he has yet to beat Brady on the game’s biggest stage.

But hey, there’s only one Tom Brady, and the rest of the league is competing for second-place as far as G.O.A.Ts are concerned.

Though Mahomes is probably the safer bet to outlast Brady in terms of winning the MVP award because of his consistent play in the regular season.

Coupled with some of the most remarkable credentials of any quarterback his age that the league has ever seen.

And once again, Mahomes isn’t just favored to win MVP; his Chiefs are favored by many to win the Super Bowl.

Aaron Rodgers: +1100

We weren’t sure if Rodgers was going to suit up for the Packers in 2021. Then he arrived at training camp in late July and has at least made temporary amends with the Green Bay Packers. Rodgers won the MVP Award in 2020, but once again, the NFC Championship demons haunted him.

Regardless, Rodgers is still a good choice to win league MVP considering his ability to make players around him better. Sure, he has a stellar wide receiver in Davante Adams and an upper-echelon running back in Aaron Williams.

But really, who else is there?

Adam Lazard and Marques Valdez-Scantling are role players. No one heard of Robert Tonyan until this past season. And this isn’t the first time Rodgers has managed to put up solid numbers and win football games with lesser talent around him.

Josh Allen: +1400

Josh Allen and his Buffalo Bills have become overnight favorites and media darlings. And while Allen struggled with accuracy dating back to his days at Wyoming, he recently put up the best season of any Bills quarterback since Jim Kelly graced Rich Stadium (I’m old school, so it’ll always be Rich Stadium).

Anyway, Allen burst onto the scene with 37 touchdown passes in 2020 and led the Bills to their first AFC Championship appearance since the Four Falls of Buffalo from 1990 to 1993. If Allen posts even better production in 2021, he’s more than a solid bet to win NFL MVP.

Tom Brady: +1400

Brady and the Bucs did the unthinkable in 2020 and won Super Bowl LV over the favored Kansas City Chiefs; a team that made them look like fools during the regular season.

Anyway, Brady once again proved why he’s still the greatest in the game with a 31 to 9 thrashing over the Chiefs.

Oh, and can thank the NFL Universe that this Super Bowl victory coincided on the same season that the Bucs returned to their 1997 to 2013 uniforms in favor of the alarm clock look?

Anyway, one reason Brady is so heavily favored rests with the Buccaneers having returned every starter from the previous season. And they even had room to sign a few role players. That said, expect identical numbers from Brady and he can become the oldest MVP in NFL history in the process.

Even at age 44, Brady remains a safe bet.

Dak Prescott: +1600

Prescott played at an MVP level before a brutal ankle injury ended his season.

In 2020, Prescott was single-handedly keeping the Cowboys in games, one of which included a pair of epic comebacks over the season’s first month against the Atlanta Falcons and the Cleveland Browns.

Of course, he beat the Falcons, and had Odell Beckham not sealed the game for the Browns, anything could have happened in Week 4. Then came the injury against the New York Giants.

However, Prescott proved just how valuable he was to a franchise whose defense rested at historically poor levels.

Now that the Cowboys have a better defense in place, or at least on paper, Prescott will receive more opportunities to shine in 2021.

And if he repeats his 2020 performance, look for him to become a popular bet to win NFL MVP.

Lamar Jackson: +1800

Now that J.K. Dobbins is out for the season, Lamar Jackson faces a moment of truth. Jackson has historically struggled with passing mechanics and has never possessed deep throw accuracy.

He’s also remained overly reliant on his running game. Despite his status as a former NFL MVP, Jackson comes with a buyer-beware tag if you’re thinking about betting at the NFL sportsbooks on him.

For one, his recent desire to switch from #8 to #1 after he wins a Super Bowl, before subsequently getting them both retired, has probably caught the attention of the league’s best pass rushers.

Two of which reside in his own division (Myles Garrett and T.J. Watt). The Cincinnati Bengals also have a marquee edge rusher in Sam Montgomery, and Jackson must face these motivated defenders 6 times in 2021.

Sure, Jackson knows how to fill a highlight reel.

But he has yet to prove he’s a valuable player when asked to throw the ball over 29 times per game. In 2021, he’s the ultimate boom-or-bust MVP bet.

Matthew Stafford: +2000

Like Jackson above him, Stafford comes with a huge buyer-beware tag.

Like Jackson, Stafford has put up some sensational numbers. Especially in 2019 before a injury ended his season.

And while Stafford is theoretically playing for a better football team in Los Angeles, here are a couple of facts: Matthew Stafford is 0-3 in the playoffs, and he has never won a division championship.

So it’s premature to give him such good odds to win NFL MVP in 2021. Sure, he has a great defense. But like Jackson above him, he also lost his top running back for the season.

Unlike Jackson, Stafford is a better passer and has always performed well without good running backs.

Unlike Jackson, Stafford doesn’t win football games and he’s the modern-day version of Archie Manning. The latter of whom was also a great quarterback that never won football games.

Russell Wilson: +2000

Wilson is a great value bet considering the lackluster talent he has around him next to D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jamal Adams, Carlos Dunlap, and Quandre Diggs. So for Wilson to face longer odds to win MVP is not surprising. However, Wilson, like Rodgers, has the ability to enhance mediocre talent.

Sure, he has a dynamic duo at wide receiver. But still, that will only hand Wilson better numbers.

Wilson also tends to somehow, some way, keep his Seahawks in games even when things look bleak.

He did it several times in 2020 and almost every time, his Seahawks pulled through. If he’s not the MVP, he’s near the top year in and year out.

Justin Herbert: +2200

Herbert played better than anyone expected in 2020. No, he didn’t win games but he gave Charger fans a reason to watch what otherwise would have been a subpar football team had they kept things going with Tyrod Taylor, a game manager.

While Herbert and the Chargers look better than ever in 2021, let’s not expect a Leap like many believe. He has a new coach, a new offensive coordinator, and a new system.

Historically, these are not good ingredients for a quarterback looking to make such a Leap.

Sure, Herbert proved everyone wrong in 2020. But can he do it again in 2021? If you bet on Herbert, you have a lot of faith that he will pull through.

Kyler Murray: +2500

Murray was a favorite in 2020 and he probably would have won the award had a shoulder injury not hampered him over the final 7 weeks of the season.

It limited his production and he was never the same quarterback following the injury. However, before that, he was arguably the league’s most electrifying quarterback.

He can run like Lamar Jackson, but he can throw like Russell Wilson. Murray’s height is the only limitation he has, being one of the shortest quarterbacks in league history.

Murray also has a sensational pass-catching unit around him with DeAndre Hopkins, Rondale Moore, A.J. Green, and Christian Kirk.

Please Note:
They also signed Josh Doctson to the practice squad, a former first-round pick. Look for Murray to rush for at least 800 yards and throw for over 4,000 in 2021.


So, there you have it. The players with the best odds to win NFL MVP and as usual, they’re all quarterbacks.

Yeah, they may as well change the award to Most Valuable Quarterback these days, right?

Anyway, all jokes aside, let us know in the comments who you have to win the NFL MVP Award in 2021. Is it someone from the above list, or do you have someone else in mind?


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Rex Hoffman / Author

Rex Hoffman is a passionate sports writer, with over five years of experience covering sports journalism in line with the Vegas betting landscape. His favorite subjects include football, basketball, and baseball. As a Las Vegas resident, he enjoys finding an edge against the local sportsbooks and aims to share his extensive knowledge with both beginners and experienced bettors. Rex also dabbles in horse racing wagering and enjoys typical casino fare like blackjack and poker in his spare time.

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