By now, the dust is settling on last week’s insane events in Washington DC. Dozens of arrests have been made, including a man dressed as a Viking who briefly occupied Congress. Events like these were unthinkable only a few months ago.
I’m not here to comment on the political actions of others. I’m here to try to interpret them and figure out what they might mean for the future. Then, as the good gambler that I am, I’ll try to profit from my interpretations by placing wagers on various outcomes.
Donald Trump Is Done
|Will Trump Run Again in 2024?||+1400|
The first thing that I can guess from recent events is that the reign of Donald John Trump is over. Not only has he told his supporters that there will be a peaceful transfer of power on Inauguration Day, but he has become the only president in American history to be impeached twice.
I predict that Trump will ultimately be removed by impeachment in the final hour. The events in DC are shocking and deeply damaging to the Republican brand, and people like McConnell will be more concerned with the fate of the party than the fate of Donald Trump. You can read more about this possibility here.
Will Mike Pence Run for President in 2024?
One of Donald Trump’s most loyal allies through four years of his tumultuous presidency has been Mike Pence. However, even Pence hasn’t escaped a fallout with Trump. And in recent weeks, a rift has emerged between the two. Rumors abound, although are not confirmed, that Trump had Pence staffers barred from the White House and possibly had Pence himself locked inside a building during the riot that took place recently.
Pence has refused to invoke the 25th amendment to remove Trump under the grounds that he is mentally unfit, but he also refused to back Trump’s bid to overturn election results. That’s what caused the fallout, and it’s a hint, in my view, that Pence might be trying to distance himself from Trump to make a 2024 run.
Right now, Pence is the odds-on favorite to run on the Republican ticket in 2024. Here are the current odds on the top five candidates at BetOnline.ag.
As you can see, the bookies believe it’s highly improbable that Trump will run again. +1400 odds give this outcome an implied probability of 6.7%. It’s hard to imagine Trump will have the same influence in four years after he has been de-platformed from almost every social media channel. If he is removed by impeachment, running again becomes legally impossible.
I’ll be placing small $50 wagers on both Pence and Haley. In my opinion, they’re the only two in Trump’s orbit who can keep the MAGA voters on board while also having some degree of credibility with more conservative Republicans who didn’t warm up to Trump much. This is especially true of Haley who, unlike Pence, wasn’t standing side by side with Trump every step of the way.
Who Will Win the 2024 Presidential Election?
You might think it’s a little early to bet on who will win in 2024, and you’d be right, but you’ll often get better odds on an outcome that’s still far away in the future. Four years in politics is a lifetime, and anything can change in that timeframe. But right now, BetOnline.ag is offering odds on the following contenders.
I wouldn’t wager on any of the contenders outside the top four on the above table. While I’m certain that some of the names in the bottom half of the table will be prominent politicians in the 2030s, it’s a little early for them to win the presidency. I find it interesting that the betting markets have Harris as the favorite, which implies that Biden will not run again in 2024. Given his age, that’s probable.
Speaking of Biden’s age, there’s an interesting prop bet on BetOnline.ag. Will Joe Biden finish his first term as president? Here’s what the market thinks.
That’s a 63.6% implied probability that Biden will finish his first term. I’m not so sure about that, so I’m going to place a $100 wager on no. If I’m right, this will give me a $135 profit. It’s worth the risk.
There’s also an interesting wager on whether Biden will leave office via impeachment. Depending on where you stand on the “Hunter Biden’s laptop” issue and the alleged corruption it exposes (I emphasize the word “alleged”), this might be a bet worth making.
If you think Biden will be charged with something and will have to leave office via impeachment, the betting markets disagree strongly. It’s got an implied probability of 14.3%, which is higher than I’d give it since Democrats now control both the House and the Senate, and I don’t believe he has done anything to warrant it. If you feel differently, this might be a bet worth making.
What’s Going to Happen on Inauguration Day?
Clearly, supporters of President Trump are angry, and unfortunately, there have been credible threats of further unrest. After being briefed by intelligence agencies, Biden scrapped his plans to ride the train to the inauguration.
These are some of the Inauguration Day prop bets on MyBookie.ag.
|Will Biden take the oath in front of the Capitol?||-500||+250|
|Will Biden greet Pence at the inauguration?||-190||+145|
|Will Joe and Jill Biden share a dance?||-300||+200|
I’ll wager that Biden will indeed take the oath in front of the Capitol, because he’ll want to show strength in the face of threats and intimidation. And I’ll also wager that he will greet Pence there, as I believe Pence will be looking to distance himself from Trump and present the “bigger man” image for a 2024 run.
US Political Prop Bets – Summary
It’s been a crazy few months in US politics, and in hindsight, that was perfectly predictable. Whether you love Trump or loathe him, he is a force of nature with massive influence. And the moment he started with allegations of cheating and fraud, something bad was bound to happen.
In any case, it looks like Donald Trump is soon to be in the past, but the Republican Party is forever transformed for jumping on board the Trump train. Wherever that ultimately leads, I’d say it’s a safe bet that Pence will run in 2024, and I’ll also wager that Kamala Harris will defeat him when the time comes.
Am I biased? Heck no. I’m neither red nor blue; I’m all about that money green! I just bet on what I believe to be the most probable outcomes. What bets do you like the look of? Scroll back up and make them before time runs out and American turns the page on this interesting chapter of its history.