Will Miss USA Win the 2019 Miss Universe Pageant?

miss universe 2019

The Miss Universe Pageant is almost here. The 2019 edition of the famed pageant is scheduled to go down in Atlanta on Sunday, December 8th. Last year’s champion, Catriona Gray of the Philippines, will cede her crown to a new winner.

Gray entered last year’s pageant as a +6600 underdog, so there is surely plenty of betting value to be had if you think you can accurately peg this year’s winner. Entertainment betting sites have fresh odds posted regarding which nation will produce this year’s Miss Universe. There are also a number of props available at any number of online betting sites, such as:

Let’s dive into the odds and try to come up with some value, shall we?

Winner’s Region

  • Americas/Caribbean (+130)
  • Asia/Africa/Pacific (+170)
  • Europe (+200)

As mentioned, last year’s winner came from the Philippines. That actually marked the second win for the Philippines in the competition in the last 4 years, as Pia Wurtzbach brought home the title back in 2015. South Africa (2017), France (2016), Colombia (2014) and Venezuela (2013) have also produced Miss Universe winners within the last handful of years. The last American to win the competition was Olivia Culpo back in 2012.

The United States has produced 8 pageant winners, which is the most of any country. Venezuela, interesting enough, is next with 7, followed by Puerto Rico (5), the Philippines (4) and Sweden (3).

As you can see, the Americas have largely dominated Miss America over the years. So, there’s a reason the Americas/Caribbean is the betting favorite here at +130.

If we take an early peek at the odds for each contestant, the early favorite to be named Miss Universe 2019 is actually Jennifer Paweensuda Saetan-Drouin of Thailand at +300. The Philippines (+500) is second-favorite, followed by Brazil (+600), El Salvador (+600), Portugal (+600), Puerto Rico (+600) and the United States (+600).

While Asia/Africa/Pacific makes for a very worthwhile betting option at +170 with the top 2 odds-on favorites, I’ll take my chances with the volume of contestants from the Americas. The Americas’ track record at the event speaks for itself, and there is still upside in the +130 odds.

The Pick: Americas/Caribbean (+130)

Will Steve Harvey Announce the Wrong Winner?

  • Yes (+5000)

You probably won’t find a bigger Steve Harvey fan than yours truly. Anytime I’m scrolling through the TV guide and find Family Feud, I’m there. Steve is a guy that wears plenty of hats. He’s a decorated stand-up comedian, but he has also enjoyed his fair share of hosting gigs over the years.

Miss Universe has cycled through several hosts in its history, including Bob Barker, Alan Thicke, Billy Bush and Daisy Fuentes. Harvey has been steering the ship since Fox purchased the broadcast rights back in 2015.

Harvey’s tenure hosting the show has been largely uneventful, but he did make plenty of headlines for a notable gaffe in his very first year on the job. Harvey choked in the show’s most crucial moment, as he mistakenly announced that Miss Colombia (Ariadna Gutierrez) as the winner. Gutierrez was actually the runner-up, so Harvey had to awkwardly take the crown and bouquet from her and give it to the actual winner, Miss Philippines (Wurtzbach).

Since then, surely Harvey has taken extra time to make sure that he reads the runner-up and winner in the correct order. As fun as it would be to see another gloriously awkward moment again this year, it’s hard to fathom it actually happening.

The Pick: There aren’t betting odds on “no,” unfortunately.

Will Donald Trump Tweet About Miss Universe?

  • Yes (-300)
  • No (+300)

Donald Trump may be President of the United States, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have time to watch television. In fact, he probably watches more TV than most non-presidents in the US. Trump actually owned the Miss Universe Pageant from 1996 until 2015 when he sold it to WME/IMG. At the time of the sale, The Miss Universe Organization had an estimated value between $5 million and $25 million.

There are at least 3 things we know President Trump likes: Twitter, himself, and women. This prop bet combines all 3 in perfect fashion. Trump has no filter when it comes to firing off his thoughts via his favorite social media platform, and he has tweeted about the Miss Universe Pageant on a number of occasions. He went on a Twitter rant back in 2016 about a former Miss Universe, and in 2013 he sent out this tweet that looks awfully interesting considering what we know now:

If you want upside, betting the “no” side of this prop at +300 is where you want to go. That said, I would never bet against Trump tweeting about anything, especially something like Miss Universe. We know he’ll be watching.

The Pick: Yes (-300)

Winner’s Age

  • Over 23.5 (-110)
  • Under 23.5 (-110)

More than half of the field for the 2019 Miss Universe Pageant check in under 23.5 years of age. 51 of the 92 contestants in the field are younger than 23.5. That said, 5 of the last 8 winners have been older than 23.5 at the time they were crowned Miss Universe.

Because picking the winner is essentially a crapshoot, I would just use the math to my advantage if betting on this one. There is a greater chance that the winner will be under 23.5 just because there are more of them in the pool. So, bet the under at –110.

The Pick: Under 23.5 (-110)

Winner’s Height

  • Over 5’9″ (-110)
  • Under 5’9″ (-110)

Gray, who won last year, checked in at 5’10”, making her the tallest Miss Universe title-winner since Gabriela Isler of Venezuela in 2013. Just 3 of the 66 winners to this point have registered at 6’0″ or taller, with Amelia Vega (Dominican Republic) being the last in 2003.

5 of the last 11 winners have been over 5’9″. Before last year, though, each of the previous 4 winners were measured at 5’9″ or shorter.

While the field of contestants for the 2019 pageant has been released, information regarding the height of each woman in the field is difficult to come by. Unlike with age, we have no real way of knowing how many of the participants are over or under the 5’9″ threshold.

So, we’re having to guess on this one. I would lean toward taking the under on 5’9″, just because most of the recent winners have been on the shorter side of things.

The Pick: Under 5’9″ (-110)

Who Will Win the 2019 Miss Universe Pageant?

  • Thailand (+300)
  • Philippines (+500)
  • Brazil (+600)
  • El Salvador (+600)
  • Portugal (+600)
  • Puerto Rico (+600)
  • United States (+600)
  • Colombia (+700)
  • Australia (+800)
  • Chile (+800)
  • Iceland (+800)
  • Venezuela (+800)
  • Bolivia (+900)
  • Costa Rica (+900)
  • France (+900)

There are 92 contestants with betting odds, but the countries listed above are those with odds better than +1000. Last year’s winner was an incredible long shot, but we are no longer getting Miss Philippines at such a favorable price.

This year’s Miss Philippines, Gazini Ganados, has the second-best odds at +500. Surely this has everything to do with the Philippines (+500) accounting for 2 of the last 4 champions. The last country to produce back-to-back Miss Universe winners was Venezuela (Dayana Mendoza and Stefania Fernandez) in 2008 and 2009. Russia and Panama split the title in 2002, which is the only year in which co-champions have been named.

The USA (+600) is represented by Cheslie Kryst, who won the Miss USA Pageant representing North Carolina back in May.

Let’s not overlook Venezuela (+800), which has accounted for 3 of the last 11 winners. Because this is a guessing game, I don’t necessarily think you can go wrong with any of the above options. For all we know, Miss Nepal (+7500) will come out of the woodwork to upend the rest of the field.

The United States has the best track record of any country in the event, and it doesn’t hurt that the pageant will take place in Atlanta. Here’s hoping Miss USA enjoys some home-country advantage and brings the title back home.

The Pick: United States (+600)

Taylor Smith / author

Taylor is a sports writer based in Southern California. While he primarily specializes in basketball, baseball and football, he will also dabble in things like soccer and politics from time to time. He has lived in just about every corner of the United States at one point or another, and he has been covering sports and sports betting for the better part of a decade. Taylor currently lives in Long Beach with his fiancé and their two cats.