WNO: Who’s Number One Professional Grappling Betting Odds and Expert Analysis

This Friday, January 21st, 2022, bets are available for the WNO tournament: Craig Jones vs Pedro Marinho. We’ll see nine grappling matches with many of the highest level BJJ competitors in the game today.

Betting on Brazilian Jiu Jitsu tournaments is still developing.

It’s difficult to find stats for grappling as most governing bodies are behind paywalls, and for no-gi BJJ (like WNO) there are almost no true governing bodies in the sport.

Instead:
We’ll look at each grappler’s style to produce a top bet, we’ll offer the latest odds, and an expert analysis of each match. WNO now has an Over/Under bet for each of the nine matches at the ten minute mark. Each match is fifteen minutes, so the Over is anything past ⅔ of the total match time, including a decision or overtime victory.

This is quite possibly the most exciting BJJ card I’ve ever seen. Almost everyone on the card is a world champion in IBJJF or an adjacent organization.

Pedro Marinho vs Craig Jones Odds and Betting Pick

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds
Pedro Marinho Money Line +400
Craig Jones Money Line -600
Over 10 Minutes +230
Under 10 Minutes -290

Pedro Marinho BJJ

Pedro Marinho is a Gracie-Barra fighter and IBJJF World Championship winner for the 2021 no-gi division. In the eyes of the international BJJ federation, Marinho is the best there is. Mainho’s passing and guillotines are his best features, rising to black belt quickly, after winning the IBJJF worlds at Purple belt in 2018, and Brown belt in 2019. His last string of losses was during ADCC, when he was quickly dispatched via heel hook from Jone’s former training partner Gordon Ryan, and Kaynan Duarte. He also faced Craig Jones under Kasai 5 rules, and the two went to a draw.

Craig Jones BJJ

Craig Jones is a constant competitor at this level, competing recently against UFC’s Sean Brady and losing via referee decision, after which Jones vowed to never pull guard again. Jones felt he deserved the win, despite playing bottom, due to the frequency and closeness of his submission attacks.

This new Jones style means we’ll be lobbying for a takedown position between two non-wrestlers. I expect a longer match.

Final Betting Pick

With Jones focused on the takedown, and Marinho focused on proving that his leg lock game has evolved, we’ll see a long and grinding bout between these two.

HEADING TEXT HERE

Jones is becoming known as the kind of high level fighter that you can simply stall out. It happened in their first match, and it happened in his ADCC losses and recent loss to Sean Brady.

In classic BJJ style, “If you can’t beat them, lay on them.” Expect this to go long, I’m betting the Over 10 at +230.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Levi Jones-Leary and Tye Ruotolo Odds and Betting Pick

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds
Levi Jones-Leary Money Line +275
Tye Ruotolo Money Line -350
Over 10 Minutes -220
Under 10 Minutes +180

Levi Jones-Leary BJJ

Leary is a Unity BJJ fighter and multi world champion in IBJJF and other tournaments, but has been inactive through 2020 and most of 2021. He’s still been training though. Both of these fighters are young. Leary is only 24, and has been training nine years.

Leary has lost to fighters like Diego Ramalho, Osvaldo Moizinho and Mica Galvão.

Tye defeated Mica by split decision last year in the middleweight division, and it’s notable that Tye is bigger than Leary by one natural weight class.

Tye Ruotolo BJJ

Ruotolo is scrambly and has become a bit of a pressure passer as time goes on. He’s an Atos Black belt, and trained through the pandemic solely with his brother Kade, another full time BJJ competitor. He’s currently at Atos, getting close attention from the staff there.

Tye is only 19, so Levi has some age on him, as well as total grappling experience. However, Levi stated he wanted to have a ‘bolo shootout’ with Tye.

Tye abandoned much of his no-gi bolo attacking through 2021.

Final Betting Pick

I see Leary hoping for a technical back chasing contest, while Tye will be happy to smash and pass. This match will look reminiscent of Tye Ruotolo vs Nicky Ryan, where Nicky played a DLR guard, and Tye smashed it, stepped through it, and dominated with points.

I’ll be betting the favorite, Tye Ruotolo, to win at -350 for a $0.29 per dollar wagered payout.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Elder Cruz vs Nick Rodriguez Odds and Betting Pick

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds
Elder Cruz Money Line +300
Nick Rodriguez Money Line -400
Over 10 Minutes +125
Under 10 Minutes -155

Elder Cruz BJJ

Cruz is from Checkmat, a relatively new outfit from Carlifonia under former world champion Lucas Leite. Elder Cruz is very physical. He was the 2020 IBJJF Pan champ in no-gi and gi. Cruz wrestled for Team USA in high school, then earned his blue belt in five months, a stunning feat. However, recent losses to Bodoni and Couch tell me he’s not on the level of Nicky-Rod.

Nick Rodriguez BJJ

Nick had a similar rise to power as Cruz, quickly moving up through the ranks and going from a no name competitor in 2018 to a world class ADCC fighter in 2019. His recent win over Steve Mowry showed new skills, and a honed Rodriguez that we hadn’t seen before. He hasn’t been submitted since 2019, and he is now full time at Craig Jones B-Team academy.

Final Betting Pick

Elder is fun to watch, and he looks like Rodriguez from three years ago. With more time, he’ll be a fighter to watch. For now, bet Nick Rodriguez at -400 for $0.25 per dollar wagered. Nick has been catching more submissions lately. I would have bet the over a year ago, but now he’s a danger early and often.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Brianna Ste-Marie vs Tubby Alequin Odds and Betting Pick

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds
Brianna Ste-Marie Money Line +195
Tubby Alequin Money Line -245
Over 10 Minutes -260
Under 10 Minutes +200

Brianna Ste-Marie BJJ

Brianna is a new black belt as of 2021, and a combat BJJ champion (grappling with some strikes included.) Her last big submission was Fight to Win Champion Bri Robertson in 2021, who’s a rising star in the BJJ community. Ste-Marie offers a kind of aggression that we often don’t see in her weight class.

Brianna is new to Flograppling events, but not new to high caliber competition.

Amanda Tubby Alequin BJJ

Alequin is the 2019 IBJJF No-gi World Champion. She’s a mixed martial artist, and is currently 17-11 for Flosports events like WNO. She recently lost twice to Tammy Musumeci, and her last four losses have been via decision.

Final Betting Pick

I pick the Over 10 Minutes prop at -260. With a $38 payout per $100 wagered, this prop aligns with what I’ve seen from both athletes- long losses. Both fighters tend to be defensive enough to lose via decision. Expect Brianna to find top position, and use aggressive tactics that force Alequin to retain guard again and again until late in the match.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Jessica Crane vs Alexa Yaness Odds and Betting Pick

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds
Jessica Crane Money Line +195
Alexa Yaness Money Line -245
Over 10 Minutes -260
Under 10 Minutes +200

Jessica Crane BJJ

Crane is a rising star and currently a Purple belt level competitor. She’s currently 4-1 in Flosports. Crane is focused on backtakes, but struggled against Danielle Kelly’s leg lock game. Alexa Yaness defeated Kelly via decision last year.

Alexa Yaness BJJ

Yaness is 15-20 in Flosports, and while she’s been primarily a gi fighter, she’s lost three of her last five matches in no-gi. I feel that Crane is still a developing fighter, and this is clearly an easy match for Yaness, meant to redevelop her record after getting demolished at Abu Dhabi Worlds in 2021 by various athletes.

Final Betting Pick

Expect to see a highlight real performance by Alexa Yaness over Jessica Crane. The -245 Yaness Money Line pays $0.41 per dollar wager. Yaness has more experience, more accolades, and has beaten the people Crane lost to.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Cameron Reed vs Michael Pixley Odds and Betting Pick

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds
Cameron Reed Money Line +275
Michael Pixley Money Line -350
Over 10 Minutes -180
Under 10 Minutes +150

Cameron Reed BJJ

Cameron is from 10th planet BJJ in the Light Heavyweight division. He has no current Flosports record, and has bad blood with Pixley. The two go into a fight at no-gi IBJJF Worlds.

Michael Pixley BJJ

Pixley won the match with Reed. He’s the World Champion at blue belt, as well as a decorated wrestler from the esteemed Pedigo Submission Fighting in Illinois.

Pixely also won the Absolute division at blue belt.

He’s a high quality competitor with the right gym behind him.

Final Betting Pick

Bet Michael Pixely at -350, a $0.29 per dollar wagered return. He’s got big things ahead of him, and this is a grudge match he’ll win with relative ease. The trash talk may make this one exciting, but rest assured it’s a one sided bout.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Geno Morelli vs Kemoy Anderson Odds and Betting Pick

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds
Geno Morelli Money Line +155
Kemoy Anderson Money Line -185
Over 10 Minutes -220
Under 10 Minutes +180

Geno Morelli BJJ

Morelli is a D1 wrestler from Penn state, a 2-0 MMA fighter, and recently lost to Patrick Downey via decision. Geno trains at Revolution Dojo in Texas and is the current wrestling instructor on staff. He’s athletic, scrappy, and new to BJJ.

Kemoy Anderson BJJ

Kemoy is a 10th Planet El Paso Athlete and 0-1 MMA fighter. He’s some six years older than Geno as well.

Anderson is a black belt in BJJ, and is currently 4-3. After watching his matches with Tiegs and Guaresi, I see an upset.

Final Betting Pick

Kemoy doesn’t have the athleticism to face Geno. Kemoy looks for arm locks and upper body attacks, but will struggle against a high quality wrestler to devise more subtle and sophisticated submission work.

I’m betting Geno Morelli at +155, and this is my most confident bet on the card.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

David Garmo vs Jacob Couch Odds and Betting Pick

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds
David Garmo Money Line +250
Jacob Couch Money Line -325
Over 10 Minutes +200
Under 10 Minutes -260

David Garmo BJJ

Garmo has over 300 wins in BJJ competition. He’s a Danny Agemy black belt, and multi time IBJJF champion and professional BJJ competitor. Recently, he lost to Sean Yadimarco and Hunter Newton at ADCC trials and NoGi Worlds.

Garmo had a rough 2021, and he doesn’t have it any easier with Couch.

However, he’s a leg locker, and these two will have a leg lock shoot out early.

Jacob Couch BJJ

Couch is coming off an upset win over Robert Jiminez, one of the greatest grapplers currently in the game.

Please Note:
Couch is bigger than Garmo’s natural weight class, but Garmo has been adding weight over the last two years.

I see Couch sitting for leg locks early, and the match stalling out between two people with a deep understanding of the game.

Final Betting Pick

I think we’ll see a leg lock clinic from both fighters, resulting in a long match with plenty of attacks and escapes. I’m betting the Over 10 Minutes prop at +200 for double your money. Many see an early Couch win, but against many higher level fighters, Couch takes his time. Garmo is no pushover, and will find off leglocks with deep knowledge of the position.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Estevan Martinez vs Mikey Musumeci Odds and Betting Pick

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds
Estevan martinez Money Line +285
Mikey Musumeci Money Line -360
Over 10 Minutes -275
Under 10 Minutes +215

Estevan Martinez BJJ

Martinez is a black belt from Lucas Rocha, and he’s a IBJJF champion in 2021 and 2020. He’s a top position fighter and high quality guard passer, who will be happy to take the fight to Musumeci’s RDL game early.

Martinez is 30-28 in professional level BJJ, and has gone 1-2 over his last three.

Mikey Musumeci BJJ

Musumeci is coming off his first ever no-gi loss just six matches ago, and he has something to prove. He’s a multi time world champion at 55-5.

Since his loss he’s finished five of his six matches via submission finish, and is back down to his normal weight class of 57 kilograms. He lost at 70 kilograms.

Mikey’s leg lock game is continuing to develop, with six of his last ten matches ending via leg lock submission.

Final Betting Pick

This is the right match to see Mikey back in the WNO winning bracket. Bet Musumeci at -360 for $0.38 on the dollar. I’ll be parlaying this match with Geno Morelli for a big win.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

WNO 2022 Wrap Up

Expect the highest level talent at WNO this Friday, and avoid betting too many Under props. These matches usually go long, and with so much talent in one place, we’re going to have a long night.

If you’re confused about BJJ, start with our BJJ betting guide. Thanks fight fans! Leave a comment below for more combat sports betting action.

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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