Canelo vs Bivol Boxing Betting Pick

Fight night is almost here, and we’re lining up our top pick for the Canelo vs Bivol betting odds. Canelo is looking to take out his 17th world champion, and Bivol is hoping to upset the King, May 7th, 2022 at 11:00 PM ET. Place your bets on one of the most reliable Boxing betting sites; our top choice for this fight is Bovada. 

Top Canelo Alvarez vs Dmitry Bivol Boxing Betting Pick

Our top betting pick is the Canelo Alvarez money line at -600!
The Canelo Money line at -600 is an absurdly high paying offer for a man who’s defied the odds time and again and showed no signs of faltering to anyone but the absolute best ever. Bivol has shown moments of struggle in his last two fights. His short pro career hasn’t toppled a single modern boxing legend, and he’s jumping all the way up to face the most legendary fighter of our time, tied only with Mayweather or Fury. 

The Payout on Canelo’s Money Line

A -600 pays out at $16.67. Expect this line to move quickly on fight night as many place their final bets. I expect Canelo to jump to -800 as fans from around the world bet on his knockout victory props or money line win. 

Tale of the Tape for Canelo vs Bivol 

Fighter  Saul Canelo Alvares Dmitry Bivol
Ranking  #1 #3
Age 31 31
Height 5’8’’ 6’0’’
Reach 70” 72’’
Total Fights 58 19
Record 56-1-2 19-0
Knockouts 38 11
Stance Orthodox   Orthodox
Career Rounds  436 148
Inactivity  6 months 5 months
Weight class
Welter to Light Heavy Light Heavy
Boxing trainer  Eddy Reynoso Vadim team

Bivol is taller, but only carries a two inch reach advantage. Bivol’s 1-2 style is more dangerous when he has the reach advantage. Canelo likes to draw out the jab to land hooks to the body, so we should expect that strategy early on.

Canelo’s Experience Advantage

Canelo has fought three times as many fights professionally as Bivol, but Bivol has over 300 amatuer boxing bouts. Canelo has the experience advantage in the big show, but no amatuer record to speak of. Expect Bivol to look as crafty and seasoned in the ring. I compare Bivol’s amatuer career to Usyk’s. Multiple world champion, olympic gold, and so on. 

Reynoso vs Vadim Team

Eddy Reynoso is Canelo’s life long trainer. They’ve upped the level of their training with each fight camp, from conditioning to sparring intensity and total training hours. Many boxers, including Ryan Garcia, have come through the gym and left because of its intensity, both in sparring and training. The Reynoso gym is the Canelo show, and that can be bad for other fighters but fantastic for the fighter at the center of coach attention. 

Vadim Team

This group of coaches has been Bivol’s head coach since the olympics. Vadim team is part of a Russian school of sports that has produced Sambo world champions, MMA fighting champions and many other combat sports notables. They’re just now seeing a hayday, but the Vadim Team will produce more champions over the coming decade. 

Canelo vs Bivol Top Betting Odds

All betting odds and markets are covered in our Canelo vs Bivol Prop Blog. Here we’ve included a selection of notable betting lines. 

Bet on Bovada Odds 
Canelo Money Line -600
Bivol Money Line +375
Over 8.5 Round -525
Under 8.5 Rounds +325
Bivol in Rounds 7-12 +1200
Canelo in Rounds 7-12 +350
Will the Fight Go the Distance, Yes -255
Canelo by TKO  +235
Bivol by TKO +800

It’s stunning that Fight goes the Distance, yes is a -255, favorited over the ‘no’ betting prop. Canelo has finished his last two champions, with many saying Plant had a good chance at victory. We assume it’s the change in weight class. 

Canelo’s Vegetarian and Bivol’s Trolling

Canelo used a vegetarian or vegan diet moving up a weight class. He said the whole foods high carb diet helped to build the body he needed to get to 175 from 160 in his last bout. Bivol joked that his coaches had him eating ‘rattlesnake meat’ because of its athletic properties. We can’t confirm if that’s true. 

Round Betting and Props for Canelo vs Bivol

Canelo has gone past the eighth in two of his last five fights. Bivol style seemingly has more self preservation than Saunders, an eight round finish. His last light heavy bout was Sergey Kovalev, and Canelo saw an 11th round TKO for Kovalv’s third ever loss. 

Bivol’s Developing Decision Style

Bivol has seen six decisions in a row, and prefers to out-point fighters for a win. Many coaches talk about his power, but in reality he doesn’t offer much killer instinct. Bivol looks to win without getting hurt, focusing on the longevity of his career and the Olympic style favored by many Eastern Eurasian fighters. Expect Bivol to do his best to draw this out, knowing his split decision odds are better than knocking out Canelo.

Top Prop Picks

Look to bet the Over 8.5 Rounds if you’re unconvinced that Canelo is the winner. Bivol will be looking for the decision, and Canelo likes to finish late against lanky fighters. The Canelo knockout prop seems like one of the better choices to me, offering +235. Canelo has knocked out four of his last five opponents. 

Boxing Analysis for Canelo Alvarez vs Bivol Sports Betting

Canelo’s strategy of drawing out the jab has trumped a number of jab heavy fighters. It cost him the decision to draw GGG in their first fight, and since then Canelo has focused more on capitalizing on the missed jab rather than attempting to tire fighters out. Look for these sequences to follow with hooks to the body, or Bivol exiting the pocket to avoid counters, raising the chance of a decision. 

Here’s Canelo’s 11th round TKO of Kovalev, the other Light Heavyweight champion he faced. Even late in the fight Canelo has finishing power, hitting as hard as he does in the early rounds. Kovalev showed defense similar to Bivol early on, taking many shots on the gloves and arms. This will cost him late in the fight, and even if Bivol is up on rounds a Canelo finish in 11 or 12 looks like a good bet. 

Bivol often fights even outside his own range. Look at how he pumps the jab, goading Barera to come forward into the pocket to counter. He’s patient when he’s up on rounds, but I’m curious to see if Bivol carries himself the same way if he’s down on the scorecards and knows it, which hasn’t ever happened to him. 

Bivol’s fight with Joe Smith shows that he can take a shot. Canelo is going to land, and it will be the biggest test of Bivol’s career. I don’t love the way Dmitry reacts to getting hit, and it makes me less confident in the decision prop bet. Could be a Lomachenko situation, where Bivol will quit early to keep a long career. 


Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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