Casimero vs Butler Betting Pick, Latest Odds and Fight Analysis

Our Casimero vs Butler betting pick takes a close look at the fight, the odds available at, and the stats on Compubox and inside fight tape to produce our top betting picks. If you don’t like the odds on our top pick, you can scroll for some justifications for each over/under bet, or you can always parlay with other fights through the weekend.

Story of the Fight

Current WBO World Bantam Title holder John Riel Casimero must face his mandatory title challenger after being snubbed in unification bouts versus Inoue, Donaire and Gaballo. Butler called Casimero the most vulnerable of the four champions stating, “Well he’s lost hasn’t he?”
Paul is now in his second attempt at the belt after a loss to Zolani Tete for the IBF title in 2015.
Butler has more on the line, and is fighting to win enough money to save his gym, the Wirrall club, from foreclosure. While this can be an added motivation, it may also be a major stressor. Butler will be fighting and training at a club that is having serious financial difficulty.
This Saturday, December 11th, 2021, Casimero vs Butler heads up the card at Coca-Cola Arena in Dubai. The fight will air on AXS tv in the USA.

Odds and Props for Casimero vs Butler

These odds and bets are available at and are accurate as of December 9th 2021.

Betting Pick Odds and Payout per Dollar Wagered
Paul Butler Money Line +800, $8.00
John Riel Casimero Money Line -1500, $0.07
Over 7 ½ Rounds -115
Under 7 ½ Rounds -115

As you can see, Casimero is a strong favorite, and Butler is offering an eight to one return. Paul has been the favorite for his last three. His most recent fight as the underdog was against Emmanuel Rodriguez at +330. Butler lost a twelver round decision.
Casimero is at his most favorited status on record. Over the last ten fights, since September 2016, he’s been between +265 versus Tete, and -750 against Cesar Ramirez. Casimero’s last loss was to Jonas Sultan, where Casimero came in as a -350 favorite.

Money Line Bets

Betting on Casimero is our obvious choice. He’s proved to be the better fighter, he’s working with higher level coaches, and he’s defeated Tete,  one of the fighters Butler was bested by.
Butler is still in this fight, though. Placing a smaller bet for the larger return isn’t a terrible idea. Recent footage shows Butler looking very sharp defensively.
My last strike against a Butler money line is that many of his hometown fights have been stopped short. I saw two ‘TKO’s’ in London that looked suspicious, with referees stopping fights a bit short. He’s a hometown favorite, and I feel he’s a bit protected.

The Over/Under Prop Bets

There are only two prop bets available, the Over 7 ½ and the Under 7 ½, both at -115 odds. Looking closely at the records of both fighters, it’s difficult to make sense of the over under because Butler has seen three of his last six fights as six round bouts. 
Casimero has finished six of his last seven wins, though only three of those wins fall into the under 7 ½ Round category.
 Butler has one sixth round TKO on his recent winning streak, and lost in the eighth round vs Tete in 2015, and went to decision in his loss to Rodriguez.
It’s a difficult call. I’d stay away from the over under if you can, but I’d tentatively bet the under. Butler looks very slick in his recent defensive footage, but Casimero is a strong finisher. He finished Tete in three rounds, and Tete finished Butler inside the 7 ½ Round prop line.

Tale of the Tape for Casimero vs Butler

Fighter John Casimero Paul Butler
Age 32 33
Height 5’4’’ 5’6’’
Reach 64’’ 66’’
Total Fights 35 35
Record 31-4 33-2
Knockouts 21 15
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
234 242
Inactivity 120 Days 170 Days
Weight class
Bantam Bantam
Boxing Coach Manny Melchor Wirrall Boxing Club

Butler is older, taller and has a greater reach. Both fighters have similar bouts, rounds and inactivity.
The Wirrall Boxing Club has produced Paul Butler as their only high level fighter. THere have been no other champions or title contenders. It was once a police boxing club that has done some transitioning into a city club, attracting underprivileged youth.
Casimero has brought in Manny Melchor, former world champ and power puncher. Casimero was forced to switch camps after their shared coach went to assist with  Manny Pacquioa‘s presidential campaign.
It’s clear that Casimero has a history of stronger coaches, and has chosen an excellent successor for his camp against Butler.

Compubox Stat Comparison For Casimero vs Butler Betting Pick

Let’s look at their last two performances. Casimero and Butler are both coming off split decision wins over decent fighters, though Rigondeaux is clearly the better fighter than 12-4-1 Willibaldo Garcia.

Casimero vs Rigondeaux Compubox Stats

Rigondeaux is a former WBA champion, #4 in the world, and his only other loss is to Vasyl Lomachenko.

Fighter Total Punches Landed Approximate Rounds Won Power Punches Landed
Casimero 47/297 6 44/167
Rigondeaux 44/221 6 29/97

Rigondeaux performed well, and outpointed Casimero. The clear advantage is the ability to consistently land power shots. Casimero landed more power shots in every round except the second and third rounds.
Casimero is in a different category than Butler. He’s outclassing fighters almost no one in the division can touch, and that reinforces the safety of our moneyline bet.

Butler vs Garcia Fight Analysis

Butler stats aren’t available for the Garcia fight. The bout was scored a split decision after one judge saw the bout for Garcia, who was far more active. After watching this fight, it’s notable how many shots Butler likes to take on the gloves.
Against a power puncher like Casimero, that’s an awful strategy. He’s clearly looking to employ more head movement based on the footage he released, but that’s not normal for Butler’s boxing.
Despite winning an early knockdown, Butler came out just two rounds ahead on two score cards, and losing on another. This speaks to his six round bouts. I don’t feel Butler has the experience in ten rounders that will prepare him for twelve with Casimero.

Butler vs Casimero Betting PIck Wrap Up

If you like what we’re doing here, drop a comment below to get more updates on betting strategies, picks and the top betting sites.
If you’re looking for a strong parlay victory to go with Casimero, check out our Lomachenko betting pick.

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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