Charlo vs Castano Boxing Betting Pick

The last bout went to a split draw for these two champions. The first fight went to a split draw, with many claiming the judges were protecting Charlo’s legacy. Let’s take a close look at fight 1, the compubox stats, and the betting odds to make our top pick. All odds are from Bovada, one of our top boxing betting sites

Charlo vs Castano 2 Boxing Betting Pick

Our top pick is Jermell Charlo, the favorite at -210. Castano won the first fight until Charlo started using his jab and came off the ropes. The slow start for the champ was because of a couple of hooks that stumbled him early. After he woke up in round 9, he took the fight with relative ease. Coaches want to see a jab heavy game and faster start from Charlo, which I think we’ll end with him unifying the belts. 

Tale of the Tape for Jermell Charlo vs Brian Castano 

Fighter  Jermell Charlo
‘Iron Man’ 
Brian ‘Ray Sugar’ Castano 
Ranking  #1 #3
Age 31 32
Height 5’11’’ 5’7’’
Reach 73’’ 67’’
Total Fights 36 19
Record 36-1-1 17-0-2
Knockouts 18 12
Stance Orthodox  Orthodox
Weight class
Light Middleweight Light Middleweight

Charlo is the bigger man in all categories, including more pro boxing experience. He has a lower KO percentage, 50% to Castano’s 70%, but this is mostly because Charlo has more pro fights at a high level. 

Castano’s Amatuer Career

Remember that Castano has over 191 amatuer bouts. He’s truly the winner in the experience category. His record is reported as 181-5-5 but was also competing in gym vs gym boxing amatier fights since he was 12 years old. 

Charlo’s Jab in Fight 1

Iron Man failed to use his reach advantage, landing only five jabs to Castano’s four in the first three rounds. Charlo must activate his reach, and pump the jab to force Castano to respect his distance. He did this well in rounds 8-12, landing 30 total and winning those rounds on most scorecards. 

Boxing Money Line Odds for Charlo vs Castano 

Betting Pick on Bovada Odds
Charlo Money line -210
Castano Money Line  +160

Charlo opened at -125 and has risen to -235 at his peak. He was a -120 for the majority of fight one. It’s interesting to see Charlo a bigger favorite after the draw, especially when so many saw Castano winning fight one. 
Castano also went to a draw with Erislandy Lara as a +155. The only loss of Charlo’s career was to Tony Harrison in 2018 as a -1100. He knocked Tony out in round 11 for their rematch a year later. 

Over Under Betting Odds for Charlo vs Castano

Round Bet Over,Yes Odds Under,No Odds
10.5 Rounds  -280 +190
Will the Fight Go the Distance -230 +160

The Over matches fight 1, but wouldn’t pay out on any fight for Charlo since his fight with Harrison. Both fighters win by knockout over half of the time, but Castano has faced a string of decisions in three of his last four bouts. In the end, both fighters are too unpredictable for our tastes when it comes to betting the over/under.
That said, both men want this settled, and the feeling of your last fight being a draw often leads to fighters demanding a finish and laying it on the line. Expect Will the Fight Go the Distance, No to payout at +160. 

Fight Prop Odds for Charlo vs Castano

Betting on Bovada Odds 
Charlo TKO +250
Castano TKO +550
Charlo Decision +135
Castano Decision +300

I like the TKO props for either fighter, and I imagine that fans of Charlo or Castano will be rooting for a TKO as much as betting on one. However, neither prop is exciting for me. I’d sooner bet the fight won’t go to a decision for a slightly lower payout. 
Charlo by TKO at +250 is my top prop for this table. 

Boxing Breakdown for Charlo vs Castano 2

First, note the compubox stats for fight 1. Castano landed more total punches in eight of the twelve rounds. However, he landed more power punches in 9 of the ten rounds. This fight should have been more competitive, which is why I believe Charlo had an off night. He got clipped early and was clinging on for the whole fight. 
In my eyes, Castano won fight one, but that doesn’t mean he’s the right boxer to do it again. 

Charlo’s Power

Charlo has power in every strike, knocking down opponents with jabs, hooks and straight rights. Surprising that with his height advantage he doesn’t see more uppercut finishes outside of the Harrison rematch. Expect Charlo to play the outside a bit more in the fight with Castano. 

Here is the kind of long 1-2 striking his coaches want to see in the rematch. He let Castano get in early and stay in for full rounds. Playing the ropes and eating hooks on the gloves cannot be part of his strategy going in. Castano will look to pin Charlo to one side of the ropes, where the only exit involves ducking or eating a hook. 

Castano landed beautifly early in fight one. He marches in with a high guard and goes to work. He never lets up on this pace either, which causes him to look gassed out late in the 8th round. Expect him to look for the finish later in the bout this time, ramping up to a champion round TKO. 

Castano and Ugas are fans of hard sparring, as are many Argentinian gyms. I see fighters going rough a bit too close to fight time and I wonder if they’re nervous. They’re also fighting in close. Charlo is likely to stay out of the pocket for the rematch.  

What do you think? Let us know in the comments and place your top bet with Bovada.

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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