The week of the fight Chris Eubank’s original opponent Sven Elber contracted COVID and is now out of their October 2nd bout. Anatoli Muratvo is jumping in as a last minute replacement. He’s no slouch, but a win over Eubank would rocket him into title contention.
Chris Eubank Jr to fight Anatoli Muratov after original opponent Sven Elbir tests positive for Covid-19https://t.co/0hGTnfuIm4
— Indy Sport (@IndySport) September 28, 2021
We’re finding the best bet for this bout after looking at the fight history, past performances, fighter stats, money lines, and props. Let’s start off with the payout for each bet.
Chris Eubank Jr. vs Anatoli Muratov Betting Odds
|Fighter||Moneylines and Payout per Dollar||Over/Under 3.5|
|Chris Eubank Jr.||-10000, $.01||-120|
|Anatoli Muratov||+1800, $18.00||-120|
Eubank pays out just one penny per dollar wagered on a win while Anatoli will pay eighteen times your money for a victory. Eubank tends to sit between -650 and -5000, though he was -175 in his last loss to George Groves.
Muratov has no recorded money lines, indicating this is his largest fight of the last few years and possibly his life. He’s fought for titles before, but Eubank is easily the highest-profile boxer he’s gone against.
There are dozens of props for this bout, including a number of +10000 Muratov finishes we won’t be touching. The fight is 12 rounds, though the main two props are ‘Over/Under 2½ and 3½ Rounds.’ This indicates that analysts and oddsmakers see 4½ rounds and above as too risky, with Eubank very likely to finish Muratov prior.
The fight goes to decision is +750 and Fight doesn’t go to decision is -1250, an $0.08 payout per dollar wagered. I’ll be analyzing fight footage and records to determine our optimal Over/Under prop bet.
Tale of the Tape
|Chris Eubank Jr.||Anatoli Muratov|
|154 days||Inactivity||14 days|
|Middleweight, Super Middleweight||Weight Classes Fought at||Middleweight, Super Middleweight|
Anatoli fought just two weeks ago, a first-round knockout of an unranked 7-9 opponent. He has no record online of height and reach, and the promotions he’s fought for haven’t prioritized a tale of the tape before any fights.
Eubank has the advantage in experience and total knockouts. Anatoli has the better TKO percentage, though his opponent quality is far lower the Eubank’s.
Sven Elber, the fighter who was originally set to fight Eubank was also orthodox and approximately Anatoli’s size, so it’s not a big change for Eubank.
Anatoli was already in camp for October 9th and has said he is in peak condition.
Last Five Fights for Chris Eubank Jr. and Anatoli Muratov
Eubank has won his last four after losing to Super Middleweight George Groves by Decision.
His best performance was a TKO win over Matvey Korobov and his last fight in May 2021 was a twelve-round UD against Marcus Morrison where Eubank only gave up two rounds.
Anatoli’s last two bouts were six-rounders against unranked fighters. His fight with 40-year-old 43-13-2 Siarhei Huliakevich ended in a draw on October 10th, 2020.
Anatoli is on a seventeen-fight win streak (not including the draw) against varying levels of opponents with 19-2 Ilias Essaoudi as the most promising fighter in the streak. Essaoudi is 346th super welterweight in the world. Anatoli dwarfed Essaoudi in the ring and it played a major factor in his win.
Chris Eubank Jr. Boxing Strenghts and Weaknesses
It doesn’t take an expert to see Eubank’s hand speed and in and out footwork are lightyears past Muratov’s skill level.
Eubank fought Avni Yildirim in 2017, which is his closest opponent to Muratov in the last five years. Eubank landed 59/201 for a third-round knockout.
His loss against groves was due to volume and accuracy. Groves landed 117/396 while Eubank landed 92/421 punches. Though we can’t look at Anatoli’s punch stats accurately, we can determine he doesn’t throw a high enough volume in any fights past to match Groves.
Anatoli Muratov Boxing Strengths and Weaknesses
Anatoli simply doesn’t have the experience for a win here. He has a solid left hook that I hope Eubank respects. However, Muratov does get staggered by lesser opponents.
He has underdeveloped head movement, and can only slip to the outside effectively. He’s been KO’d twice by a 20-3 and 5-4 fighter in the 5th and 6th rounds respectively.
I don’t think he’ll make it four rounds with Eubank.
My Final Eubank Jr. vs Muratov Betting Prediction
Eubank does allow for return fire off leaping left hooks and jabs with his hands down. A part of me wants to bet a small amount on Muratov, but in reality, the $0.83 payout per dollar wagered looks confident when a prospect who we know can knock you out early meets an unknown fighter that has failed a test of his chin against much lesser opponents.
Give us your thoughts in the comments and happy gambling!