Conor McGregor and Floyd Mayweather Super Fight August 26th, 2017

The fight that we have all been waiting for, Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather is finally here! Well, the fight that all casual boxing fans have been waiting for, the hardcore boxing fans are looking forward to that epic GGG Canelo matchup, but enough about that. It’s Conor and Floyd time now!

The fight that the fans literally demanded. A cross promotional matchup featuring the pound for pound best MMA (mixed martial arts) fighter in the world, especially now since Jon Jones can’t stay off the juice, in Conor “Notorious” McGregor against the greatest boxer of his or maybe any generation in Floyd “Money” Mayweather.

Could Conor Actually Win?

This is the question on every fight fans mind, can Conor pull off the biggest upset in combat sports history this weekend in Las Vegas? The short answer? Yes. Yes, he can. But will he? That is a whole other question. In this next section, I am going to tell you why I think Conor McGregor could win in this matchup.

Never Underestimate Conor McGregor

Conor McGregor has been being underestimated his entire career, and that doubt seems only to fuel his fire. He went from fighting in front of a couple hundred fans and on welfare to support himself just a couple years ago to now fighting for a reported $100 million dollar plus payday and his haters have been doubting him the entire way.

When he first came to the UFC it was all about, “well how has his competition been?’ ‘Who has he really beaten?’ Spending the majority of his early career fighting the best his home country of Ireland had to offer, many questioned just how good he really was when he finally got his shot in the big show of the UFC at the UFC on Fuel TV event in April of 2013 in Stockholm, Sweden.

He quickly put that talk to rest as he ran right through a very game opponent in Marcus Brimage. In his second fight, Conor faced off against the eventual Feather weight title holder Max Holloway and coasted to an easy decision victory. He then reeled off several wins in a row and got a shot at the UFC interim Feather weight title at UFC 189 against Chad Mendes.

Most fans, even the people rooting for Conor, knew that the wrestling heavy base of Mendes was going to prove to be a difficult task to overcome. And it was at first as Mendes was able to drag McGregor to the mat and hold him down for most of the first half of the fight. But with just a few seconds left in the second round, Conor was able to escape and ended up knocking Mendes out and taking claim to his first World title. Conor had predicted what would happen, and earned him the nickname “Mystic Mac.”

In his next fight against Jose Aldo, McGregor predicted a quick knockout. He was able to come through on that prediction as well and knocked out the longtime champion in just 13 seconds.

After the Aldo fight, he had a legendary set of fights with Nate Diaz that saw him drop the first fight and then come back to avenge his only loss in the UFC with a decision victory in one of the greatest fights in UFC history. His last fight in the UFC was against perennial contender and UFC light weight champion Eddie Alvarez.

Many again picked Conor to lose. Eddie was just too big, too strong, his wrestling and ground game too good. He made yet another bold prediction in this matchup, where he was looking to become the first fighter in UFC history to hold multiple belts at the same time. History tells us that Conor is able to breakdown fighters to such degree that he can predict the outcome with a reasonable level of certainty. Has he been wrong before? Yeah, he has, see his Nate Diaz predictions, but has been right more times than not? Absolutely.

Conor is a thinking man’s fighter and will go in with the best possible game plan on Saturday night, and won’t be lacking in the confidence department. Conor’s prediction for Saturday night? He sees another knockout coming, inside of four rounds.

Mind Games

Conor has done a great job of talking the talk in this matchup. He has consistently gotten the best of the trash talk on this whirlwind of a media tour. If all this talk actually leads to a change in Floyd’s fight plan on Saturday night, Floyd is going to regret it. Floyd has gone on record recently as saying that he is going to come after McGregor and today said that he is 100% going to get a knockout.

Floyd Mayweather has built his career on being probably the best defensive fighter of all time. Many of the best boxers in the world couldn’t land a shot on Floyd, and that is because he has spent most of his career playing it safe, backing up and counter punching. Floyd’s ability to counter punch and stay out of harms ways is what has made him a legend of the sport.

If he holds true to his word and deviates from this tried and true game plan to try and knock out McGregor he is going to wish he didn’t. Let’s be honest here, it Floyd fights his best fight, sticks and moves and counter punches and spends the entire fight playing it safe there really isn’t any way that Conor has any real chance. But if he falls into the trap that Conor has spent the better part of the last two years laying, he exposes himself to Conor’s big-time power and speed.

Physically How Do They Match Up?

As far as the physical side of this matchup goes, Conor is the much bigger and stronger man. Both possess other worldly speed, and precision and those should cancel each other out for the most part. I am not one of the Conor fans that has convinced himself that Floyd doesn’t have any power. Floyd spent the early part of his career showing vicious power and knocking out everyone they put in front of him. It is only over the last several years that Floyd realized if he played it safe and didn’t engage he had no real way of losing, that he stopped knocking people out. Conor has absolute one punch knockout power, but don’t sleep on Floyd, if he wants to hurt you, he can.

I am not going to go too far into actually breaking down or analyzing this fight. That has been done a million times and to be honest the more you break down this matchup, the less exciting it gets. On paper, this is a mismatch of epic proportions. The best boxer of his generation against a guy that has never even boxed before.  If Conor McGregor wasn’t Conor McGregor and didn’t have that charisma and tenacity that has made him a household name this fight would never even be happening. Does that mean that Conor can’t catch him and shock the world? He absolutely can, and I for one am hoping it happens.

Worst Line In Sports History

I spoke to a very well respected and long time Vegas odds maker this week, and he claims that this is “the worst line in sports history.” And I can see why he thinks that. Before this fight was actually announced, there were lines posted at several sports books in Las Vegas for the fictional fight. The lines showed Floyd Mayweather as a -2700 favorite. This is the real line, not the public hyped up by Conor’s mouth line.

The opening line for any sporting event is always going to be the most accurate number. Anything after that is just a reaction to the betting public’s action. This has been the most one-sided event of all time. The money is all coming in on Conor. 26-1 in fact. And that is counting the 880K the Maloof brothers recently plopped down on Money Mayweather.

Nobody is betting on Mayweather. Maybe it’s because we all like an underdog, maybe it’s because Floyd is just so damn unlikeable, maybe it’s because Conor is the people’s champ. Whatever it is, it has moved the line to the point that it is so “wrong” that you have no choice to take the other side. Right now, the consensus Vegas betting line is Floyd -450.

The line dropped from 27-1 all the way to 4.5-1! That is a historic line move that has set up Vegas for the most lopsided event in legal sports wagering history. If McGregor does somehow pull off a victory, the Nevada sports book will have the worst single day loss in history. And that is not hyperbole or exaggeration if Conor wins the state could lose over $50 million dollars.

You know who doesn’t like to gamble? Casinos. They always like to have limited risk and gamble with the best odds, that’s how they always end up on top. That is why we have seen the line drop so far. In the business, we call it exposure. Of course, the Vegas casinos want to be rooting for a Mayweather win, it is the most likely outcome, but they have so much exposure, AKA risk, that they are now begging people to take Mayweather.

That is how you see a line drop so hard and so fast. The casino wants to win, and win big on the event, but even they are looking to hedge their bets on this one. This event is so large and is taking so much action that a McGregor win could nullify even the Super Bowl’s annual win total for the state.

Gotta Take Floyd

I hate to say this, but as the line currently sits, you have to take Floyd Mayweather.  A bet on Conor McGregor at just +325 is lunacy. In the sports betting world, it is usually always best to be on the other side of the betting public. Why you ask? Because they are almost always wrong. And in this matchup, the betting public has never been on one side so hard.

If this line were Floyd -2700 like it should have been, I would be the first person to tell you to jump on the McGregor bandwagon and hope for that one lucky punch to land. But it’s not. It’s -450, and at that price, it is offering more value than any sporting event I can remember. I know on Saturday night my heart will be in Conor’s corner, and I will be cheering the Irishman on, but my money? It’s going on Floyd “Money” Mayweather.

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Jason Gray / Author

Jason is a true Las Vegas insider as he has called the sports betting capital of the world his home for sixteen years. Jason started out his career in gaming by running the biggest poker tournaments in the world and managing some of the biggest sportsbooks on the strip. Jason has transitioned out of casino operations and has been covering sports betting for the sports geek for just over two years. His main focus is on baseball, college basketball, and the NFL