Dmitry Bivol vs Umar Salamov Betting Pick, Latest Odds and Boxing Analysis

In our Bivol vs Salamov betting picks, we’re breaking down each bet, and why you might look to pick any one of the bets available depending on your appetite for risk. Bivol is a stunning undefeated champion, but Salamov is the former WBO Light Heavyweight Title holder for a reason. Let’s explore the odds available, the fight stats, and walk you through our process for finding the top betting pick. 

Story of the Fight

Salamov was set to fight Joe Smith Jr., WBO title holder, until Smith caught Covid and was unable to compete. They scrambled to find a fight while Salamov was in peak condition and got the call for a title fight for Bivol’s WBA Title Belt. Bivol was in talks to fight Canelo Alvarez until the champion moved to schedule a bout with Artur Beterbiev, also a light heavyweight title holder. Bivol’s next step is to unify the belts, but with Joe Smith out and Artur Beterbiev fighting Canelo, he’ll settle for defending his titles against a former champion and fellow Russian. 

Betting Odds and Props for Bivol vs Salamov

These bets are available at Betonline.ag and are accurate as of December 9th. Currently, no array of prop bets is available locally or on offshore betting. 

Betting Pick Odds and Payout per Dollar Wagered 
Dmitry Bivol Money Line -2000, $0.05
Umar Salamov Money Line +1100, $11.00
Over 10½ Rounds  -260
Under 10½ Rounds  +200

Looking at these odds, we see a strong likelihood of a Bivol decision win, though Salamov has a serious chance of being the first to finish the undefeated champ. 

Money Line Bets and Odds History

Salamov pays eleven times your money, while Bivol offers a nickel per dollar wagered. 
We can’t expect better betting lines from Bivol, but this is one of his toughest challenges to date. Over the last five years, Bivol comes in at -650 against Felix Valera to -8000 against Isaac Chilemba. Salamov lost his -1100 fight to Damien Hooper, but still sees -2000 or better favorite odds in 2018 to 2020. 

Over Under Betting Props 

The Under prop pays two times your money and the Over pays $0.38 per dollar wagered. 
Bivol’s last five fights have seen a unanimous decision. Salamov has knocked out five of his last seven opponents, seeing the decision twice. All of this is since his move to Las Vegas in 2016. 
It looks like Salaman will finish by TKO or Bivol will win via decision. Given their style interactions, I can see why the under feels particularly risky. Lenin Castillo and Joe Smith both saw Bivol decisions. Sullivan Barrera was knocked out in the twelfth. These three are widely considered the best boxers Bivol has faced. Salamov doesn’t fall into this category. 
Salaman has never faced an opponent on the Bivol, Castillo, or Barrera level. His toughest test was arguably his last fight versus Sergei Ekimov, and the judges each saw a wildly different fight with Ekimov losing the split decision.

I feel that many analysts are counting Salamov out. He has the hands to put anyone anyway. This man has some powerful knockouts, and that kind of power can stun someone who thinks he can’t connect. Mindset, and catching a fighter at the right time has so much to do with how undefeated fighters lose.
Bivol comes off generally confident, and it’s tough to judge a Russian fighter’s headspace.
Salamov hasn’t been knocked out, but has he really been tested? I see the Over as the right prop bet, but I’m much more interested in a Bivol money line pick. 

Tale of the Tape for Bivol vs Salamov

Fighter  Dmitry Bivol Umar Salamov
Age 30 27
Height 6’0’’ 6’3’’
Reach 72’’ 76’’
Total Fights 18 27
Record 18-0 26-1
Knockouts 11, 61% 19, 70%
Stance Orthodox  Orthodox 
Career
rounds
136 149
Inactivity  224 Days  247 Days 
Normal 
Weight class
Light Heavyweight Light Heavyweight

Salamov is taller, has a greater reach, more professional experience, is younger, and has a greater knockout percentage. Almost all advantages fall to Salamov on paper. 

Fighter Camp Comparison

Salamov moved to Las Vegas to train with Kevin Barry alongside David Tua and Maselino Masoe. His fight camp has consistently produced good fighters. 
Bivol is trained by Gennady Mashianov, a coach he kept from his amatuer days up until now. He also trained Sergey Kuzmin, and was himself a pro light heavyweight. 
I see Salamov as having a better training environment. 

Bivol vs Salamav Compubox and Fight Tape Comparison

Salamov’s last fight with good compubox data was vs Brian Howard in 2018. Salamov finished brian in the ninth round, landing at a 25% accuracy rating, just a notch above Howard’s 24.6%. This is troubling for Salamov fans. In many of his performances, you’ll watch him go tip for tap against other Light heavyweights. 
When you’re making your Bivol vs Salamov betting pick, review the Hooper and Richards fights before you place any money on the underdog. 

Salamov vs Hooper

Hooper gave Salamov his only defeat, and this win was often about hand speed and quick head movement. He got inside early, landing the slip-uppercut and repeatedly landing combinations through the gloves of Salamov. 
Bivol has the tools to repeat many of Hooper’s successes in this bout. Salamov’s last fight vs Sergei didn’t show a completely different fighter than in this 2015 bout. 

Bivol vs Craig Richards

When you’re thinking about how Bivol will face Salamov, watch the Richards fight closely. Bivol has intense hand speed, rivaling and exceeding Hoopers. Richards is another fighter that enjoys using the gloves to block combination shots, and Bivol splits them with repeated ease. 
Bivol’s size is highlighted here. He could easily make middleweight. 

Bivol vs Pascal

Pascal landed a paltry 16% of his punches versus Bivol. As the champion matures, he’s having an easy time keeping the damage he’s taking in each fight low. In five of the seven rounds, Pascal landed 0 jabs on Bivol, landing only six the entire fight. Compare that to Salamov’s tendency to land similar numbers as his mid level opponents.

Bivol vs Salamov Betting Pick Wrap Up 

If you’re still getting your basic understanding of boxing betting, check out one of our guides or flip through a few other fight picks. Bivol is a clear winner here. Of this weekend’s fights, I see him as one of the least likely to see an upset. He’s the kind of boxer who should be unifying the belts and facing Canelo before he gets too far into his career. Good luck fight fans! 

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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