Our betting pick for Gausha vs Tszyu considers the boxing stats, the prop bet odds, and an expert fight tape analysis to bring you our top betting pick. Place your bets for the Gausha vs Tszyu boxing title fight by 9:00 PM ET, March 26th 2022.
Gausha vs Tszyu Boxing Betting Prediction and Top Betting Pick
Tim Tszyu is a rising champion that should break into more top ten fights and possible title shots over Charlo. He has more power, is proven against top rated fighters, and has been more active in his career. Gausha has dropped the toughest tests of his career with narrow losses. Betting the under is ignoring Gausha’s ability to go toe to toe with top ten knockout artists and still see a decision. The only props available are the Over/Under, and neither fits this match up with enough confidence to bet on.
Betting History and Story of the Fight
Tszyu is undefeated and should be next in line to fight Jermell Charlo for the four unified belts at super welterweight. Tszyu is the WBO Global Super Welterweight Champion as opposed to the WBO World Champion; a frustrating interim style belt from WBO. Still, his skill is undeniable. Since 2019 Tszyu has run through eight top twenty Super Welter’s, including Takeshi Inoue, where Tim was a -1200 favorite. Tszyu has ranged from -145 (against Jeff horn) to -5000 over his last eight fights and has never been the underdog.
Terrell Gausha has been the underdog in three of his last seven, including a draw with Austin Trout at +175 and a loss to Erislandy Lara in 2017 as a +1750 underdog. Gausha is a knockout striker that can’t seem to win over top tier Super Welters, and was dropped from the rankings from inactivity. The most comparable bout is the loss to Erickson Lubin, where he hovered from +400 to +600 from open to closing bets.
This is a classic story of boxer versus brawler, technician versus power puncher. If Guasha can win, it will be the biggest upset of his career. If Tim Tszyu wins, it will be another step in the long line to face Charlo.
Tale of the Tape for Gausha vs Tszyu
|Fighter||Terrell Gausha||Tim Tszyu|
|Inactivity||377 Days||128 Days|
|Normal Weight class||Super Welter||Super Welter|
|Boxing trainer||Renard Safo||Mark Gambi, David Barker, Igor Goloubev,
Tszyu gives up size to Gausha, and is seven years younger. He has more career knockouts, which isn’t what you’d expect given their styles and quality of opponent. Experience could have been an issue on a Tim Tszyu bet, but he’s been in the ring with better boxers overall despite fighting less total rounds.
Do the Fighters Trainer’s Affect My Betting Pick?
Renard Sato is a trainer out of OHIO that helped Terrell through the amatuer rankings, defeating fighters like Caleb Plant and Andranik Hakobyan. Sato has produced few other top tier boxers and has something special with Gausha. I feel that after losses, it’s good for fighters to branch out and see what they’re missing. He’s stuck by Sato’s side.
Tszyu has a boxing family that includes multiple conditioning coaches and boxing specific coaches. His family put him through weird coordination based training, like coin catching and kettlebell juggling from his uncle Goloubev. He’s recently worked with Dewy Cooper, the coach that’s currently working with UFC champion Francis Ngannou. From a betting perspective, Tszyu has far superior coaching, more money to funnel into top level coaches, and a widespread team of genius trainers. This should affect your betting pick if you’re considering the underdog Gausha.
Betting Odds for for Tszyu vs Gausha
|Bet||Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager|
|Gausha Money Line||+650, $6.50|
|Tszyu Money Line||-1200, $0.08|
|Over 10 ½ Rounds||-155, $0.65|
|Under 10 ½ Rounds||+125, $1.25|
Tszyu has become a stronger favorite as time goes on, opening at -550 and closing at -1000 or better across many betting sites. A Tszyu money line bet is a good choice for any parlay, and from reports of recent sparring matches going swimmingly against other top tier Super Welters, I’d stray far from the Gausha money line. This fight is supposed to be a ‘welcome to America’ party for Tim, and the managers know it, as does Gausha. That kind of pressure gets into some fighter’s heads.
Is the Over/Under a Good Bet for Tszyu vs Gausha?
Tzsyu has seen five TKO’s across his last six fights, while Gausha has seen three over his last eight fights. Gausha hasn’t finished in his pro or amatuer career. He was knocked down in the fourth round by Lara in their 2017 meet.
Lara has a 47% finishing ratio, much lower than the 75% of Tszyu. Still it’s tough to bet on a finish between two fighters who have never been finished. I could see a Tszyu knockout, and I could see fans of Terrell betting the under prop if only to protect against a Tim KO while hoping for a Gausha knockout.
Other than fan bets, I think parlaying the Tszyu money line is far and away your best choice.
Boxing Betting Predictions for Tszyu vs Gausha
Gausha has underperformed against the best boxers in his career and has never beaten an undefeated pro boxer. His record is 2-2-1 over his last five fights, defeating two up and coming fighters via quick knockout finishes in the first and second round.
Tszyu is still relatively unproven. He’s only beaten one current top ten contender in #10 Dennis Hogan. Gausha going the distance with #7 Erickson Lubin should be enough to convince us this fight will be competitive.
Terrell Gausha Compubox Data in Losing Fights
Looking at Gausha’s one draw with Trout and two losses, you see that this fight will be competitive, more so than the odds make it out to be.
|Gausha Opponent||Punches Landed by Opponent||Punches Landed by Gausha|
Gausha was out struck by these fighters, but not outclassed entirely. In the Lubin fight, there is a case to be made that Gausha won more rounds overall, and he out worked and out punched Trout in a clear win that was declared a draw. Still, he landed no knockdowns in these bouts, and was knocked down once by Lara, the first fall of his professional career.
Tszyu Compubox Data and Prediction
— b0xingfan (@b0xingfan_) March 24, 2022
Tim’s accuracy is something to behold. We’ll need to see the best boxing defense we’ve ever seen from Gausha to consider anything other than money line bet. Tzsyu can choose to drag this out, and being that much better than Terrell means prop bets are a bad idea.
Tszyu’s toughest tests included Horn, who he outstruck 2:1, finishing him in the eighth round and Dennis Hogan, another 2:1 knockout. In his last bout with Inoue, he saw a decision landing three times the number of strikes as Takeshi. Takeshi Inoue is the closest in odds to this fight, putting Tim at -1200 in closing. I expect Tim to land punches against Gausha at around a three to one ratio, similar to the Inoue fight. Inoue is like Gausha in many ways. Both have a 50% KO ratio, both fighters can take damage without ever falling down, but neither have the specific kind of boxing defense and volume that it’s going to take to beat Tszyu.
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Boxing Pick Wrap Up
If you’re looking for the right parlay ticket to pair the Tszyu money line with, consider the UFC preview and pick a good place to start, with several one sided wins scheduled. If you’re new to parlays and boxing betting in general, we’ve got a guide to help with that, too.
Gausha should be returning from a year off to fight a warm up opponent, not a world champion. Tim is easily next in line for the Charlo fight, and this is glorified sparring. Don’t be afraid to paraly when you’re confident, even tacking this on as an odds boost for another moderate confidence bet.