This week’s boxing main event pick covers super flyweight main event Roman Gonzalez vs Julio Cesar Martinez. Gonzalez vs Martinez headlines the DAZN boxing show at Pechanga Arena in San Diego. Place your bets before March 5th, 2022 5:30PM PT to get in on a lucrative boxing betting ticket.
After a close look at the fight tape and Compubox data, our fight pick is:
Roman is an amazing knockout artist, but his recent surgery could affect his performance. Martinez has never been finished, but was knocked down by McWilliams in his last bout. Both fighters bring excellent power, and depending on outside circumstances, like coaching, injuries, and career pressure, either fighter could take home the knockout finish.
Story of the Fight
Roman Gonzales is coming off a loss to Estrada for the WBA world title. This was his third shot at the title after losing back to back fights to Wisaksil Wangek for the WBC World title in 2017.
Martinez took a no contest against McWilliams Arroyo and another against Charlie Edwards because of a downed strike. In the mind of many fans and analysts, Cesar has been robbed of two title wins and defenses.
Cesar took the vacant WBC title in 2019 and defended it three times, racking up two KOs.
Gonzales is getting his fourth shot at a world title, and he intends on bringing all the power of his 77% KO ratio to the ring.
— KalickiJoe (@FreeSmokeBoxing) September 16, 2018
Gonzales is the favorite, and one of the most powerful flyweights boxing has ever seen.
Tale of the Tape for Gonzalez vs Martinez
|Fighter||Roman ‘Chocolatio’ Gonzalez||Julio Cesar ‘El Ray’ Martinez|
|Knockouts||41, 77%||14, 66%|
|Inactivity||357 Days||106 Days|
|Super Fly||Super Fly|
|Boxing trainer||Sendai Tanaka,||Eddy Reynoso|
Martinez has under half the fights that Gonzalez has. Their knockout percentages are similar, but Gonzalez has knocked out higher rated fighters, such as Brian Viloria, Rocky Fuentes, and the undefeated Khalid Yafai. El Rey didn’t start facing quality fighters until 2019, and Roman is the first boxrec rated five star boxer he has ever faced in his career.
Martinez fought just over three months ago, while Roman has taken a frustrating year off that included knee surgery recovery.
Comparing the Fighters Trainers
Reynoso is the former trainer of Ryan Garcia and the lifetime trainer of Canelo Alvarez. Criticisms of the fight camp include that they spar too often, but Garcia scored five knockout wins under Reynoso in three years. It’s a high quality camp.
Sendai Tanaka trained boxers Jorge Linares, Lorenzo Parr, and Takahiro Ao. His focus mit training and technical japanese style have created multiple champions.
I don’t see a clearly better coach, though Reynoso has coached more title defenses and high level knockouts than almost any trainer.
Betting Odds for Gonzalez vs Martinez
|Bet||Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager|
|Gonzalez Money Line||-150, $0.67|
|Martinez Money Line||+120, $1.20|
|Over 10 ½ Rounds||-170, $0.59|
|Under 10 ½ Rounds||+140, $1.40|
|Martinez by Decision||+260|
|Martinez by KO||+325|
|Gonzalez by KO||+200|
|Gonzalez by Decision||+230|
|Martinez in Rounds 7-9 by KO||+950|
|Gonzalez in Rounds 7-9 by KO||+650|
|Will the Fight Go the Distance ‘No’||-105|
|Will the Fight Go the Distance ‘Yes’||-125|
Gonzales is a slight favorite, and Cesar is the underdog for the first time in his career. Knockout props are tempting given Gonzalez’s history of finishing everyone but the absolute best.
Betting Odds History
Martinez was a -950 over Arroyo and a -3333 over Moises Calleros, who he beat in just two rounds. Roman was the underdog in his loss to Estrada, and a +155 underdog in his upset win over Khalid Yafai. In his first loss to Wangek, he was a -1900 favorite. Against Arroyo, he was a -3600 favorite.
Prop Betting Picks
The Under doesn’t feel as safe as the ‘fight doesn’t go to decision’ prop bet, so skip the under and lose only a fraction of the payout.
Roman’s prop bets, especially the round betting 7-9 by KO, are enticing. Roman has finished several undefeated fighters in the ninth round.
After seeing the prop bet payouts, I’m sticking to the money lines or the ‘Will the Fight Go the Distance ‘No’’ prop bet at -105.
Chocolito has only been finished once, but Martinez has been downed by McWilliams in his last fight, a fighter that Roman blazed through.
Boxing Analysis for Gonzalez vs Martinez
Martinez may be fading given his recent performance against Arroyo. He lost the second round and was knocked down in the first. The bout was ruled a no contest after a headbutt.
Martinez vs Arroyo Compubox
|Fighter||Round 1 Punches||Round 2 Punches|
The bout was far closer than expected and revealed weaknesses in Martinez’s guard and offensive style. We couldn’t get comparative compubox stats for the Roman vs Arroyo fight, but Gonzales defeated him 119-109 on two scorecards, and 120-108 on the third.
Arroyo landed a series of straight right hands and left hooks to score the knockdown, and watching the sequence makes you believe Gonzalez has all the tools for a finish.
Will Julio Cesar Martinez become the next Mexican superstar? ??
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— DAZN Boxing (@DAZNBoxing) June 24, 2021
Fight Tape for Gonzalez vs Estrada
The first round of this fight was brutal. They come out of the corner and begin immediately, landing shots on each other’s guard.
One thing I see is the stiffness in Chocolatito’s lead knee. His cutting off the ring was less notable in this fight, and he often invited Estrada into exchanges head on and rarely cornered Estrada.
Still, Gonzalez made it a tough fight to judge. Carlos Sucre who scored the bout 111-117 for Estrada watched a completely different fight than the rest of us. This could have been Gonzalez’s fight, and I believe he will have rebuilt his footwork after this fight.
He threw 120 punches in round four, shifting barely off the centerline. We’ll see a Gonzalez with renewed movement and constant aggression in the fight with Martinez.
Martinez vs Charlie Edwards
Martinez was robbed in this fight as Charlie kept his title despite clearly being the lesser boxer. He dropped the champ several times and showed up with a game plan that was perfect for Edwards.
Martinez landed a body shot while Charlie was downed and it was ruled a no contest. Martinez also landed a hook on a fallen McWilliams Arroyo in the first round. It’s the referees job to protect fighters, not the boxers’.
Boxing Betting Pick For Gonzalez vs Martinez
This bout is a coin toss of knockout power. I see either fighter sending the other to the canvas. I don’t see either of them backing down from early exchanges, and as they age they should become easier to knockout before they slow down. I’m betting the ‘Will the Fight Go the Distance ‘No’’ at -105 for a $0.95 return per dollar wagered.
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Boxing Pick Wrap Up
This may be one of the most exciting super flyweight fights in a decade. I feel strongly about this pick, and you can parlay it with one of the other combat sports bets from this weekend’s five MMA cards.
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